Progression to the mean

[HebrewHammer]

We've been so bad lately, especially in August. We're giving up 8 runs a game over our last 14 games! We're hitting poorly and pitching poorly. Nearly every single pitcher has been simply terrible the last month to month and a half. We're playing well below what could be expected from any MLB team.

 

We always talk about regression to the mean with players and teams and such. But, isn't it just as reasonable to talk about progression to the mean? When a team has been this bad, and we've been beyond bad, you have to expect things to average out by getting better. This team isn't this bad. No team is. But this team has been competitive nearly all year long and you have to believe that things will get better in a big way.

 

Are we simply regressing to this team ability, a sub .500 team? Or is all this losing (and losing BIG) setting up a huge run to finish the season by bringing our numbers back in line with the talent of this team?

[TauPentaRei]

the San Francisco Giants have the identical - 18 run differential that we have posted.

 

they are 17.5 games back; we are .5 up.

 

dear lord i hope there is no regression in store

[HebrewHammer]

That's what I'm scared of. That we're actually falling back down to Earth really fast and really hard. The baseball math Gods let us have our fun and now are taking it out on us bad by making things regress and average out in a big way by creating 8 runs on average for the other teams per game.

 

The optimist in me wants to say we're gonna start blowing other teams out. But are we?

 

Maybe this really was just a ~.500 team all along.

[lumberrule]

Maybe this really was just a ~.500 team all along.

 

You hit the nail on the head.

 

24-10 is a small sample of games. The 38-49 record since is not a small sample...its over half of the season.

[TauPentaRei]

slice the pie anyway it's convenient to you...

 

...played one hell of a 1/4 season, eating 2 nice slices of pizza, feeling full, content even.

 

well, the next 4 slices we unfortunately decided to eat managed to challenge our lactose intolerance medicine to the point where we were Uecking in the porcelain arm-chair violently and without warning.

 

there are 2 pieces of this pizza still sitting in the box! those 2 are good luke warm, room temperature, sitting out all night and picked up the next morning, microwaved or if you're ambitious and have figured out the stove, broilerified.

 

what i'm saying is, i guess: there is another good meal in that box.

[HebrewHammer]

That breaks my heart.

 

But I also like to believe that the latest stretch is a small sample too and that they can only get better. This team has been so streaky this year it's hard to really put a finger on it...

[lumberrule]

what i'm saying is, i guess: there is another good meal in that box.

 

This line of thinking is the same line that's been trotted out by the Brewers this whole stretch of poor play. Im getting so sick and tired of hearing "there's a lot of baseball left, hang in there...". Everything with the Brewers is, "Just wait..." Examples:

 

"Just wait, when Ben Sheets comes back, everything will be fine..."

"Just wait, when Bill Hall gets hot, this offense will explode..."

"Just wait, when Rickie Weeks turns it around, he's gonna be the key to this offense turning it around..."

"Just wait, Jeff Suppan is a second-half pitcher, and will be the best when its most important..."

"Just wait, Chris Capuano is an all-star, and he will get it turned around..."

"Just wait, Yovani Gallardo will stablize this rotation and make people forget Ben Sheets is hurt.."

 

Meanwhile, while we're waiting, Ben Sheets is still on the DL and MIGHT get 4-6 starts before the season is over, Bill Hall continues to be very average, Rickie Weeks continues to suck, Jeff Suppan is proving to be a major bust, the Brewers haven't won with Capuano on the mound since early May, and Yovani Gallardo looks to have hit the wall here late in the season. Meanwhile, the Cubs and Cardinals, instead of just sitting back and taking it easy, have shut their mouths and have started playing good baseball.

 

Point is, there really IS NOT a whole lot of baseball left. 41 games, if my math is correct. And this team has shown NOTHING in the past 80+ games to show me that they can right this ship and win this division.

[Ennder]

If you want to talk meaningful samples you need to talk about 162 games and even that isn't technically large enough statistcally.

 

This team is at best an 85 win team though (my personal projection was 82 wins) in my opinion, so if you really thought the 24-10 start meant we were a 90 win team then your expectations were too high.

[lumberrule]

If you want to talk meaningful samples you need to talk about 162 games and even that isn't technically large enough statistcally.

 

I'd love to hear you say that to MLB general managers. When seasons get to be in the 250-game mark, will that be big enough?

 

Half of a season of play is certainly more than enough to obtain judgments about the way certain players or teams are playing. Teams in pennant races, just or not, have to have their sample sizes shrunk in order to obtain the best possible performance in a limited number of games.

 

After the 24-10 start, all this team needed to do to get 90 wins was go 66-62, or play just over .500 baseball. That's hardly "setting expectations too high", especially if you thought this team was a .500-caliber club going in.

[TauPentaRei]

This line of thinking is the same line that's been trotted out by the Brewers this whole stretch of poor play. Im getting so sick and tired of hearing "there's a lot of baseball left, hang in there...".

 

hey! step out of the bitter barn and come play in the hay!

 

I am tempted to launch another thread completely entitled: what is 25%?

 

25% left is: 41 games... the bottom of the 7th at Miller Park... the part of the popcorn bag with all the halfed-pops... when you have to manage your stack of chips the closest... the part of your dookie that is most satisfactory... coming to work on Thursday when I'm on four 10s...

 

Sure we have been awful... I will march at the front of the parade with that flag. My newly emphasized & adopted philosophy (only to keep me sane, of course) is: Peak At The Right Time. You play 120 game to position yourself to have a chance at the end game. The strategic maneuverability of the end game is an entire new game unto itself, but certainly no less important that establishing board control during the first 1/4. Does Yost have a checkmate in him?

[1992casey]

HH, I think a statistician will tell you that 'regression' works in both directions, and thus, there's no need to bother with having to say 'progression' to the mean.

 

In other words, 'regression' simply means to move toward the mean; you can 'regress' toward a better number or 'regress' toward a worse number. Of course, that's different than the 'every-day' definition of regression.

 

lumberrule, Ennder is correct when he says 162 game samples have accuracy issues. You really need about three full seasons for statistics to be able to stand on their own. That's one reason why splits can break pretty badly; it can take much more than three seasons to get a reasonably useful sample to tell how a guy's going to perform vs. lefties, for instance.

 

That doesn't exclude bringing in other information to help get some meaning out of smaller samples. As an example, Prince struck out an awful lot of times in his first two games of the 2005 season. Statistically, that's meaningless. However, the numerous observations from people saying, "he didn't have that lousy approach in spring training," filled in some important blanks.

[TerraceReserved]

what i'm saying is, i guess: there is another good meal in that box.

 

This line of thinking is the same line that's been trotted out by the Brewers this whole stretch of poor play. Im getting so sick and tired of hearing "there's a lot of baseball left, hang in there...".

 

Point is, there really IS NOT a whole lot of baseball left. 41 games, if my math is correct.

 

Actually, there IS a lot of baseball left. About a quarter of the season, which is huge in baseball. 41 games is still a ton games to play. Anything can happen during that time, either we continue to stink and go 15-26, or we could get hot and go 26-15 and have a very good shot at the playoffs.

[Bring Back the Stein]

I'm all for a 250-game season, by the way. Play part of the regular season in Arizona and avoid having to watch the Bucks run for the final playoff spot? Sign me up.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"We always talk about regression to the mean with players and teams and such. But, isn't it just as reasonable to talk about progression to the mean? When a team has been this bad, and we've been beyond bad, you have to expect things to average out by getting better. This team isn't this bad. No team is. But this team has been competitive nearly all year long and you have to believe that things will get better in a big way.

 

Are we simply regressing to this team ability, a sub .500 team? "

 

That's the ultimate question this year.

 

The optimist in me still contends that, while the 24-10 run is now behind us, maybe this bad run can be ancient history, too. I mean, it's not like we're on the road this weekend (godforbid!)....and it's the Reds, and Mark supposedly went in to the clubhouse and hopefully tore them a new one yesterday. So perhaps the low point of the season was yesterday, and we can take 2 of 3 from a very beatable Cincinnati team.

 

But the 2007 Brewer optimist in me is shrinking to a tortured, crying naked baby lying under a chair, like the Harry Potter-portion of Tom Riddle's shattered, horcrux-torn soul. If the 2007 Brewers are capable of getting b-slapped around by such luminaries as Ryan Ludwick, Jayson Werth, Brian Lawrence, Joel Pineiro, Josh Fogg, and of course Yadier Molina, then the burgeoning pessimist in me predicts a no-hitter on Saturday night from Elizardo Ramirez.

 

""Just wait, when Ben Sheets comes back, everything will be fine..."

"Just wait, when Bill Hall gets hot, this offense will explode..."

"Just wait, when Rickie Weeks turns it around, he's gonna be the key to this offense turning it around..."

"Just wait, Jeff Suppan is a second-half pitcher, and will be the best when its most important..."

"Just wait, Chris Capuano is an all-star, and he will get it turned around..."

"Just wait, Yovani Gallardo will stablize this rotation and make people forget Ben Sheets is hurt.." "

 

Now THAT'S some quality cynicism there, Lumber! You're making me jealous! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Hey, someone posted that Gallardo will take over the Ben Sheets role and the production will be nearly the same...that Bush was just experiencing bad luck...that Hart will STAY this good, and it was only in April that his injured wrist killed his stats... that as soon as Hardy comes back from his DL stint that he'll go right back to dominating...that CoCoCo is the same reliver he was in Texas when he was dependable. And one member of the local media breathlessly predicted that the Menchkins platoon will work! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[Ennder]

Gotta nitpick that a little bit~

 

 

 

Our LF's have an .807 OPS so the platoon has mostly worked, though mench hasn't been as good as people had hoped.

 

Bush has lowered his ERA a full run without any of his numbers significantly changing and has put up a 4.17 ERA in his last 15 games, only difference has been his BABIP and LOB%.

[TauPentaRei]

But the 2007 Brewer optimist in me is shrinking to a tortured, crying naked baby lying under a chair, like the Harry Potter-portion of Tom Riddle's shattered, horcrux-torn soul

 

nothing to add except a standing ovation with arrhythmic, singular, echoing applause. Bravo.

[Ennder]

Maybe this really was just a ~.500 team all along.

 

You hit the nail on the head.

 

24-10 is a small sample of games. The 38-49 record since is not a small sample...its over half of the season.

 

Here is the specific problem with only using a small sample. 87 games into the season we were 49-38. Now why is that sample less valid to you than the 38-49 in the last 87 games? How about the fact we were 25-21 between June 13th and August 4th. All you have to do is go back in time 10 games to find a prolonged stretch of 46 games of over .500 ball. We have had a miserable two weeks and everyone is down on the team right now but its not like the only good ball we played all year was the 24-10 streak like people seem to be saying.

[rluzinski]

Gosh, how I wish those wins from the 24-10 start had been distributed evening over the whole season. And, as Casey explained, regression works in either direction. When hardy was on pace for 100 HRs, his overall numbers predictably regressed to the mean. When Suppan and Capuano were the 'aces" of the team, they regressed and then some. Bushand Sheets regressed in the positive direction, as did Graffy and Mench to some degree.

 

And yes, you have to look at the whole season, not just whatever sample supports your current opinion of the Brewers right now. The Brewers are 3 games over and have been outscored on the season. I think they are better than that but not by much. Of course, much of the optimism going into the season hinged on the NL Central being weak and that has certainly proven to be the case. Good play and/or luck will win the division for the Brewers. Bad play and/or luck will doom them. The playoffs are pretty much a coin flip right now. Win or lose, I just want to see some decent baseball down the stretch.