What is Arizona doing that we can't figure out?

[AJAY]

The Diamondbacks are now 16 games over .500. In the mean time, our Brewers have now fallen to just 3 games over .500 despite playing in a much worse division. I don't understand this.

 

Daron Sutton kept saying that the D'Backs were at least a year behind us in terms of rebuilding and player development. But why are we failing so miserably and why are they running away with their division? The kind of success they are having was supposed to happen here instead.

 

What is it that we haven't figured out like they have?

 

 

(added tag --1992)

[BrewCityUnit]

I think alot of it comes down to pitching and our approach at the plate. The more our pitching struggles, the more the offensive players feel like they need to do more at the plate. It looks like every guy is up there trying to hit a home run and get us a run with one swing of the bat. I think it is as simple as that. We simply haven't been playing the game the right way. Our approach at the plate is somewhat comical at this point. BUT all it takes is a game to swing things in the other direction. All I know is last year we werent' in this position so I am going to do my best not to complain. Season ended today, we are in the playoffs and if we dont' make the playoffs this year, it will always be beneficial to experience meaningful games in August and September.

[Ennder]

They are the 3rd best defensive team in the NL, we are the 2nd worst. They have been the best team in baseball in close games, we are pretty average. Their bullpen has been a strength ours hasn't. They have outperformed expectations from pretty much every standings metric more than any other team in baseball, we are pretty much at our predicted record.

 

They have played good defense, they have a good bullpen, they have been lucky. Combination of those three things.

 

I cannot overstate how bad our defense is, it has easily cost us 3 or 4 games in the standings and is the difference between us having a large lead in the standings and a small one. We have 8 below average defensive players on our roster and at most 4 above average and probably only 3 above average and that is not going to help us.

[danzig6767]

No team can win when their pitching collapses

 

While i don't watch Arizona,i agree with Ennder on our team defense at least,it's not a pretty site.You have a pitching staff in shambles mixed in with a defense behind them that is bad,not exactly a recipe for winning games.Even that crazy potent Yankees offense would have a hard time winning many games with all the runs we are allowing to cross the plate.

[And That]

Our starting pitching has been a debacle, which is not something that could have been predicted easily by management early in spring training. As for myself, I would have said that starting pitching was the strength of the team going into the year, while the offense would go through fits and spurts. The utter amalgamated failure of Capuano, Suppan, Bush and Vargas is surprising in the least. What we thought was a strength going into the year is now a clear, clear weakness going into the offseason. Parra and Gallardo will go a ways to alleviating the pressure there, hopefully, but this team needs to pick up at least another starter before next spring.

[pitchleague]

winning, duh!

 

(sorry I'm drunk and felt like being a smart mouth). The other posters are correct also.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Its all about pitching and defense and Arizona is very good with both. We on the other hand have lousy pitching and what looks like the worst defense in the game. Unless the ball is hit directly at our players it will almost always be a hit. How much longer can this team go on having well below average defenders at most positions.

[endaround]

For the next few years. This all comes back to the decision to move the one average defender in Hall to make room for two far below average defenders in Weeks and Braun.

[Fear The Chorizo]

There was a great article a couple of days ago on either cnnsi, or sportsline (can't remember which), talking about the dbacks - The gist of it was that even though their offense is inconsistent, as well as their starting pitching (aside from Webb), the team has been great at holding the leads that they do get. The article also mentions how their manager has used his bullpen this season to either lock down a win, or essentially forfeit a game if it's out of reach, depending on what pitchers he uses. Basically their bullpen has some dominant relievers, and some scrubs - Bob Melvin uses the scrubs when they're in a game down several runs late, which has led to a lot of blowout losses (the main reason their run differential is so bad). From Melvin's perspective, if he brings in a reliever to pitch in a situation where it's teetering on the brink of a blowout, and he gives up runs, that pitcher's going to stay out there to at least eat up some innings to save his better relievers for another day, no matter how bad they are pitching. The Dbacks scrub relievers probably have zero confidence because of it, but at least they know that they have a role, and will continue to get opportunities to pitch, and pitch well.

 

They win the close games with a combination of solid starting pitching, their very good bullpen relievers, and very good defense. # of errors don't tell the whole story about defense, to go with their solid fielding %, they have athletes all over the field that can flat out take hits away from hitters.

 

In summary, the article sums up Melvin's managing style as realizing that all baseball teams lose 50 or so games by default, and in the games that appear to be losses early on, he more or less throws out the white flag. This saves his better relievers for games that they'll have chances to win down the road. Also, the article applauds Melvin for his ability to get his team to bounce back from many of their blowout losses, and focus on the next game on the schedule.

[sheethead]

Bob Melvin uses the scrubs when they're in a game down several runs late, which has led to a lot of blowout losses (the main reason their run differential is so bad). From Melvin's perspective, if he brings in a reliever to pitch in a situation where it's teetering on the brink of a blowout, and he gives up runs, that pitcher's going to stay out there to at least eat up some innings to save his better relievers for another day, no matter how bad they are pitching. The Dbacks scrub relievers probably have zero confidence because of it, but at least they know that they have a role, and will continue to get opportunities to pitch, and pitch well.

 

What a concept. Bob Melvin is an example of a good manager.

 

Like other posters have said, defense and pitching are the key reasons. The manager and Brian Anderson are the intangibles.

[Invader3K]

I agree with that Bob Melvin pitching strategy 100%. Sometimes a team has to accept that it's not their day, and manage their bullpen in order to win the next game.

[joepepsi]

I'll argue the difference is Chris Capuano and Doug Davis.

 

At this point last year Cappy had 20 quality starts out of 26 overall. By my rough count, the team was 14-6 in those 20 QS. This year he's turned in exactly 6 QS in 22 starts. They are 7-15 in his 2007 starts.

 

Jeff Suppan has essentially replaced Doug Davis in the rotation. Except Suppan isn't near as good. It's not even close. Davis has pitched very well for the D-Backs, not counting a handful of rough starts in June. Although Estrada has played all right, and Vargas has been serviceable, it may be time to admit the D-Backs got the best of this deal.

 

If Capuano had pitched anywhere close to his career numbers, this team would be up by half a dozen games at least, with a similar record to the D-Backs. If Suppan and Bush had pitched closer to their career numbers the team would be running away with the division. If Sheets wasn't injured they'd be the best team in the league, as they were in April and May.

 

Everything else that's going on with the Brewers is just noise, the sorts of ups and downs all teams go through. This collapse rests solely on the starting pitching.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"BUT all it takes is a game to swing things in the other direction. All I know is last year we werent' in this position so I am going to do my best not to complain. Season ended today, we are in the playoffs and if we dont' make the playoffs this year, it will always be beneficial to experience meaningful games in August and September. "

 

BCU:

 

If all it took was ONE amazing, emotional come-from-behind game to turn things around, we already would have BEEN turned around. There have been some tremendous rallies, like the Phillies game when Prince crashed that HR in front of a roaring home crowd, with Hart's spectacular catch. But what happened to our momentum the game right after that one? Wise and CoCoCo blew a huge lead, and gave it right back.

 

Or what about Braunto smashing that towering HR off Lidge on Saturday? Did Mench, Capuano, SoupCan, Weeks, Hart, Hall, Jenkins, Turnbow....feed off of that potentially season-defining victory, and build off it, or at least maintain by playing even .500 ball?

 

No.

 

This team has no sense of urgency, and has proven it can't handle nor sustain momentum.

 

This blindfolded Polyanna attitude that "we're still in first place" leads to complacency, and doing everything you can to win while we can, right now, lacks urgency.

 

The Cubs have injuries and they're cursed, and we're 24-10, so they'll never catch us...The Cardinals couldn't pitch, and their outfield was suspect, so they couldn't possibly enter the race, because we're still in 1st, and we're better than last year....Next, it'll be "The Astros lost Clemens and Pettitte, and Carlos Lee is fat and lazy, so therefore they'll never come close to us."

 

I don't care what our expectations were coming into this season, I don't care how much better we are than at this point last year, I don't care that 2008 will be The Year. Right now, we're losing games by 7, 8, 10, 15 runs, and winning only once or twice a week after some thrilling emotional victories. Everyone but Braun, Fielder and Linebrink can't hande more success, because we've already HAD a successful season, right?

[BrewCrewForever]

Overall pitching I suspect. And there ace, Brandon Webb is healthy and pitching good. Ours Ben Sheets is on the DL, and it is really hurting right now.

[brewblue1]

Great post, Geno. I agree 100%.

 

I don't understand this attitude that so many of us fans have. That "if you told me that the Crew would be in 1st on Aug......blah,blah,blah" attitude. Sure, we're all happy that the Brewers have been in 1st all this time. But if someone had told me in June that the Crew would BLOW a large lead by mid August (and frankly we're lucky it hasn't happened earlier) my reaction would have been, "Typical Brewer season."

 

Why is there not more outrage that this team is playing NO BETTER than the awful teams of the early 2000s? Isn't this team supposed to be playing better than the crap we put up with as fans then?

 

If this team continues on it's current trend of losing, and there is no reason think that it will change, they WILL finish below .500 for the season. That's not acceptable.

 

Are we so used to losing that a 24-10 start constitutes a good season despite a poor finish?

 

I'm angry. I want change. In both personnel and attitude.

[Ennder]

I'd say its the defense and not the pitching, Capuano's stats look exactly like 2005's, Bush looks exactly like his career norm, Suppans are as good as the last 3 years. The only big difference in any of them is more singles allowed. There are only two explanations for that in my book, bad defense or bad luck and in our case its bad defense.

 

Arizona has now made 39 plays over average, we have made 30 under average. Turn 69 hits against us into outs and I'm sure our pitching is looking a lot better than it is right now.

[whizkid]

People always raise this sort of comparison when the other team is hot and the Brewers are not. Arizona is 19-5 since the first Cubs game after the Brewers took 3 out of 4 from them. Webb not allowing a run in 33 innings with 2 complete game shutouts hasn't hurt. The Cubs were hot and some thought they'd run away with things, now the Cards are hot and some think the same. They may but probably not.

 

The Dbacks will cool off considerably. Even the best teams have all had extended cool or even cold streaks and the mediocre teams have all had extended hot and cold streaks.

 

Ask again at the end of the season and we'll see where everyone is.

[joepepsi]

Good point Ennder. It's difficult to separate out what's bad pitching and bad defense.

[BrewCityUnit]

Great post, Geno. I agree 100%.

 

I don't understand this attitude that so many of us fans have. That "if you told me that the Crew would be in 1st on Aug......blah,blah,blah" attitude. Sure, we're all happy that the Brewers have been in 1st all this time. But if someone had told me in June that the Crew would BLOW a large lead by mid August (and frankly we're lucky it hasn't happened earlier) my reaction would have been, "Typical Brewer season."

 

I guees I believe in baby steps and didn't judge this team by its first 34 games. As a Brewer fan, I am happy we are in first place on August 17th. All that tells me is that through the first 110-120 games of the season, we are the best in the division. If we don't win the division this year, will I be disappointed?? Of course I will. But I am not going to sit here and bash a first place team when this team hasn't been in contention for a legitamate pennant in years. I can be unhappy about how the team is playing at the moment, but IF we can turn things around here soon I would rather be in the position we are now compared to being in 3rd place 4 or 5 games back.

[djoctagone]

What is Arizona doing that we can't figure out?

they're running air conditioning when the roof is closed.

 

they're building a light rail line with a stop right at the ballpark.

they're charging a dollar more for day of game ticket sales.

[djoctagone]

they're letting alice cooper run a restaurant right by their ballpark.

 

if alice cooper is gonna have a restaurant anywhere, it's should be right by miller park.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I don't think Arizona has "figured anything out" that the Brewers don't already know. Our pitching is atrocious right now, and you can't win when your pitching gives up 7 runs a game for a solid month running.

[MNBrew]

I think those folks who've pointed to the pitching are right. Offenses will have their ups and downs. You can weather those storms, so to speak, if you get good pitching and defense. You can get 4 hits and still eke out a win if the pitchers give you a chance to win. It's tough to eke out a win when the pitchers give up 7-8 runs before the game is half over.

 

If the pitchers don't give you a realistic chance to win, it doesn't usually matter how good the offense is. And if you aren't catching and throwing the ball well, the hole simply gets deeper.

 

Putting it in overly simple terms, Arizona has been playing like a first place team. The Brewers have spent the last 2 months by and large playing like a last place team. Thank goodness for the excellent start or the Brewers could well be a last place team.

 

Looking at a very narrow picture, they've won 2 of their last 3 and could've won the 3rd with a little better pitching. There are plenty of realistic reasons for hope. It just depends on how you want to look at them. And of course, it also depends on if they can continue showing those signs AND if the Cubs and Cardinals play like they were playing before July.

 

The division's still there for the taking. If they can somehow manage to pull it out and win the division, then this largely young roster then all gets at least one post-season series to add to their experiences going into next year, which theoretically will only make them better.

 

I'm a half-full guy, not half-empty, so I keep trying to see how they could still do it. Then again, the half-empty folks sure do have a large sample of poor play on which to base a negative forecast.

 

Back to AZ. If they win the west, games like tonight's should at least give the Crew a sense that they again CAN beat up some of the league's "big kids." Confidence is such a funny thing!

[endaround]

Obviously its that they have Jeff Cirillo in the bullpen.

[joepepsi]

Obviously its that they have Jeff Cirillo in the bullpen.

Kind of funny they used a pitcher to pinch hit and a position player to pitch.

 

Kudos to Bob Melvin to pull Doug Davis early and go to the pen. He's always been a smart, solid manager who's not scared to think outside the box.