The Rotation

[Jacob008]

In the Brewer's case since the entire team has bad BABIP's and the defensive metrics all point to a bad defense I'm pretty sure its just bad defense at work.

Ennder, nice work! Don't forget though that, DER, one of the defensive metrics you cite is just 1-BABIP. Also, you might find it interesting to look at the home/road splits for the pitchers, and see if something about playing on the road exposes a bad defense more. If it's true the defense is bad, and it's true that a bad defense is magnified on the road, well then that explains a lot about this season so far.

 

I think we are pretty far from comfortably separating pitching from defense from park factors, but your analysis here, comparing career peripherals to season peripherals and noting the difference in BABIP is a very neat place to start a conversation about it. Another neat thing would be to somehow show links between isolated power against and batting averages on balls in play. They should correlate pretty well, right? So a bad defense can actually be responsible for a pitcher getting hit harder, right?

[Ennder]

I just feel like blaming our pitching woes on luck is reaching for excuses for poor performances.

 

I didn't blame it on luck... I blamed it on the defense.

 

Weeks isn't any better than last year except for making fewer errors. His range isn't any better and his arm isn't any stronger. Hall isn't any better than Clark in CF. Braun is terrible at 3B and Koskie was a very good defensive 3B. Mench is horrible defensively, Estrada is bad.

 

Ok I guess I'm wrong, our pitching is basically pitching exactly like its career norms except they are giving up a whole bunch of extra singles. Its just poor performances that somehow hasn't changed their extra base hits allowed, walk rate, strike out rate, strikes vs balls, GB rate significantly, it just led to a buttload of extra singles. The fact that defensive metrics all point to us having one of the worst defenses in baseball is a mirage that can be blamed on the pitchers grooving fastballs down the middle that hitters decide to just hit for singles and apparently are taking for strike 3 a lot since our K rates aren't down.

 

That makes much more sense than it being our defense.

 

Another neat thing would be to somehow show links between isolated power against and batting averages on balls in play. They should correlate pretty well, right? So a bad defense can actually be responsible for a pitcher getting hit harder, right?

 

Bush - .180 (.169 last year)

Capuano - .153 (.182 last year)

Suppan - .144 (.163 last year)

Vargas - .203 (.200 last year)

 

Doesn't seem to be much significant difference. Bush's is up a little bit but earlier in the year Hall gave up two doubles that should have been errors which explains part of it. Capuano and Suppan have better ISO's than last year. I couldnt' find career rates but overall it certainly hasn't changed much.

[MJLiverock]

I am not by any means saying our defense is good but asking if it really is any worse than last year. Some areas have gotten worse (3B and C) but some were supposed to improve (SS and LF).

 

I guess we'll just have to disagree that it is luck and defense and not our pitchers fault they throw 10 plus straight balls ala Matt Wise or Cappy's 5th last night where he allowed a single, wild pitch, single (hard hit by Pujols, JJ made a nice play to even stop it), then topped it off by hitting a batter. Braun's error certainly cost us but that ball was absolutely smoked, if he makes that play I'll call that lucky. Scott Rolen would be lucky to make that play, it was an error for sure but definately needed a nice play to make up for the hard hit. Cappy would have needed two stellar plays to get out of that inning he got none but he gave up some hard shots. Parra comes in and walks Molina on 4 or 5 pitches how is that luck or defense, he gives up a line shot down the 1st base line to the pitcher, Luck or poor pitching? Then the 9 hitter draws another walk on maybe 5 pitches IIRC. That whole sequence screams bad pitching to me not luck.

[lukevan]

Ok I guess I'm wrong, our pitching is basically pitching exactly like its career norms except they are giving up a whole bunch of extra singles. Its just poor performances that somehow hasn't changed their extra base hits allowed, walk rate, strike out rate, strikes vs balls, GB rate significantly, it just led to a buttload of extra singles. The fact that defensive metrics all point to us having one of the worst defenses in baseball is a mirage that can be blamed on the pitchers grooving fastballs down the middle that hitters decide to just hit for singles and apparently are taking for strike 3 a lot since our K rates aren't down.

 

Bravo.

[Ennder]

Well talking about a single game is pretty much useless but if Pujols grounder is 1 inch more to the right he's out, if the ball to Braun doesn't take a wierd hop he has it, if the ball that Prince dives for is 1 inch to the left its an out. The pitcher has very little control over how many singles he gives up, some times you get hard hit balls right at guys, sometimes you get weak little bloops against you but the range of singles for all pitchers in baseball is extremely small. Even if I just threw every single ball down the middle of the plate my singles rate wouldn't change much, my K's would go down, my BB's would go down and my extra base hit rate would skyrocket.

[Mike Felder]

Blaming things on the defense sounds nice, except Bush only has 2 unearned runs on his line for 2007.

 

That's one of Ennder's points, though...it's not necessarily that our defense makes a ton of errors (although they certainly do make errors), it's that their range is poor, meaning that balls that would be outs with an average fielder are hits with our fielders because they lack the range to get there in time. Those don't go down as errors or unearned runs, they are charged to the pitcher, even though an average fielder would have made the play.

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

I am not by any means saying our defense is good but asking if it really is any worse than last year. Some areas have gotten worse (3B and C) but some were supposed to improve (SS and LF).

 

I guess we'll just have to disagree that it is luck and defense and not our pitchers fault they throw 10 plus straight balls ala Matt Wise or Cappy's 5th last night where he allowed a single, wild pitch, single (hard hit by Pujols, JJ made a nice play to even stop it), then topped it off by hitting a batter. Braun's error certainly cost us but that ball was absolutely smoked, if he makes that play I'll call that lucky. Scott Rolen would be lucky to make that play, it was an error for sure but definately needed a nice play to make up for the hard hit. Cappy would have needed two stellar plays to get out of that inning he got none but he gave up some hard shots. Parra comes in and walks Molina on 4 or 5 pitches how is that luck or defense, he gives up a line shot down the 1st base line to the pitcher, Luck or poor pitching? Then the 9 hitter draws another walk on maybe 5 pitches IIRC. That whole sequence screams bad pitching to me not luck.

 

You are being way too specific in your analysis...someone's about to scream "small sample" at you! In reality, statistical groupings and generalizations will always fail to tell the whole story, because there are always ways to manipulate and massage the stats in a way to support just about any theory or argument. The fact that stats are derived from outcomes determined by human umpires and a human official scorekeeper will always prevent them from being fool-proof.

 

Blaming the Brewers dead-last in MLB ERA since the all star break completely on poor defense is like blaming the Brewers near dead-last BA with RISP, 2 outs completely on the opposing team's defensive excellence in those situations. Simply put, the Brewers are not playing well as a team right now - they're not pitching well, they're not defending well, and they're not able to produce runs consistently on offense well enough to make up for their other deficiencies.

 

I'll do my own bit of stat massaging right here - since their 24-10 start, the Brewers are 9 games under 0.500 (over a much larger sample size, mind you)

[MJLiverock]

I get what your saying Ender about throwing every pitch down the middle, one would expect on average all the power numbers would be up and K's down. There are so many variables in what happens between the ball leaving a pitcher's hand making contact that I have a hard time saying it is just luck. Maybe these struggling starters are only missing locations a little bit more than before or curve balls aren't snapping like they used to causing some hard hit balls that used to be weak grounders to be hits, or the harder hit balls make the defense look bad because they are getting shelled.

 

If it is defense do all the Brewer pitchers suffer from this cause? Has Cordero, Sheets, Turnbow, Linebrink, Gallardo all see their BABIP metrics rise? I am asking because I don't know. Were Cappy, Wise, Suppan, etc. suffering from the poor defense in April May and June but somehow overcame it or did the defense really get that much worse in July and August? I am not trying to pick an arugment with Ender, his points are very good but at some point can we look at the pitchers and say they themselves are stinking up the joint and not try and make excuses for some pretty poor performances during the last 2 months.

[bjkrautk]

Blaming things on the defense sounds nice, except Bush only has 2 unearned runs on his line for 2007.

That's one of Ennder's points, though...it's not necessarily that our defense makes a ton of errors (although they certainly do make errors), it's that their range is poor, meaning that balls that would be outs with an average fielder are hits with our fielders because they lack the range to get there in time. Those don't go down as errors or unearned runs, they are charged to the pitcher, even though an average fielder would have made the play.

 

 

...so...our defense got less athletic (ie, less range) over 2006?

 

Without seeing BABIP, it doesn't seem to have affected Sheets' stats...over a similar IP in 2006, his strikeout rate is down, his walks and homers are up....and his ERA is down.

 

Vargas, Bush, and Capuano have all had their P/PA rise over the previous year. Why would they be throwing more pitches? Either they're making quality pitches, and suffering the bad luck of having them fouled off, or their missing the corners, causing the catcher to set up closer to the plate. They're not missing "down the middle" any more than they have in the past, which is why the HR stats aren't moving. It's the marginal pitches that are becoming more hittable....which is why they're turning into singles.

[Ennder]

did the defense really get that much worse in July and August

 

Back in June our defensive metrics looked pretty normal(I had a discussion about it on the Cubs forum), no clue about BABIP as I never looked into it. Its been getting worse and worse lately. My guess is a combination of Hardy not looking as good lately, Counsell not playing much(he was by far our best defensive player through June) and Braun being at 3B is to blame. Its mostly the infield that has been causing problems.

[TerraceReserved]

I know someone else touched up on this, but here's my question. If a pitcher is giving up hard hit singles and doubles in the gap that will raise the BAA, that will in turn raise the BABIP, won't it? I know that plenty of stuff can fluctuate, such as bloops and hits that should be counted as errors, but that would eventually even out. So isn't it possible that poorer pitching has resulted in a higher BABIP? Certainly the defense can be accounted for on some levels, but essentially saying that its solely responsible for the base hits that resulted in the ER we've given up? I don't know.

 

I'm asking this cause I really don't know enough about the stats, so I may be wayy off.

[Ennder]

Something other than BABIP would fluctuate with it. Whether it be HR/FB, GB%, K's, BB's, ISO (isolated power). If you are giving up a lot of hard hits its not going to just show up in singles. The difference between that group of starters and their career averages is pretty much a bunch of extra singles. I can't imagine just bad pitching would do that and not change anything else about them.

[logan82]

Hart in RF ? maybe worse than Jenkins but remember this is the 32 year old Jenkins not the 27 year old.

 

Personally I think that Hart this year is better than Jenkins last year in RF. He has better range and almost as good of an arm. I think in general our OF covers more ground and has better arme than last year. We basically exchanged Hart for Lee and Hall for Clark. Both are huge upgrades in speed and arm strength.

[DannoMac21]

I had a dream last night that Zach Jackson was starting for us. I hope it comes true soon.

[endaround]

Why, you like living nightmares? Zach Jackson sucks, he has sucked for close to two years now.

[Tbadder]

First of all I'd just like to thank the intial poster--those are fascinating stats. And point out a real, uber problem for the Crew. If you sit people for poor defensive play you gotta sit everyone but JJ and Corey, and we'd be looking up at Pittsburgh. Is this our nightmare Catch 22?

[HebrewHammer]

Our defense stinks, plain and simple. you don't even need numbers to know this. Just watch them sometime. We hardly make this great defensive plays other teams do.

 

Our outfield isn't too bad as no one has a bad arm and everyone is reasonably fast. But our infield? Wow.

 

The guys have no range. They all play so deep in different situations that it seems like we give up a disproportionate amount of infield singles. We don't seem to stop the hot grounders so much.

 

We often leave out pitchers out there forced to make 4 or 5 outs. We lost a game a couple weeks ago because our defense made the pitcher get 5 outs (with the ump making it 6).

[Jacob008]

Ennder, great article here you might enjoy analyzing defense and luck. The premise is basically that a defense can look good or bad simply because of luck. Lucky or unlucky would be teased out of zone rating by looking at in zone plays and out of zone plays to make some kind of determination about whether or not balls are hit right at defenders...

 

http://www.1060west.net/2007/08/zoned-in.html

 

Anyway, it might be a good structure for determining if we can expect BABIP to go down because the defense will "get better" or if it looks like more of the same...

 

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