The Rotation

[Ennder]

Since the rotation seems to be the hot topic lets take an in depth look at it and see just how bad it has been.

Bush - 4.39 FIP vs 4.37 career. 45.2% GB vs 45.2% career, .327 BABIP vs .297 career, 69% LOB vs 69% career. 5.07 ERA vs 4.46 ERA. Its pretty obvious in Bush's case that its the BABIP doing him in. That could mean bad defense or bad luck, take your pick. The rest of his stats match his career rates almost exactly.

Capuano - 4.19 FIP vs 4.55 career, 44.1% GB vs 40.1% career. .341 BABIP vs .305 careeer, 65.3% LOB vs 72.1% career. 5.23 ERA vs 4.38 ERA career. Like Bush his BABIP has done him in this year, his LOB% is also bad and is part of the problem. His K, BB etc are all exactly what you would expect out of him assuming last years BB rate was an outlier.

Suppan - 4.41 FIP vs 4.85 career, 45.8% GB vs 46% career. .326 BABIP vs .300 career, 69.1% LOB vs 70.4% career. 4.90 ERA vs 4.63 career. Suppan not only has pitched better than his career rates, he's pitched as good as his last 4 seasons where his ERA's were 4.19, 4.16, 3.57, 4.12. Again his BABIP is mostly at fault here, notice a trend yet?

Vargas - 5.31 FIP vs 5.40 career, 33.8% GB vs 35.3% career. .312 BABIP vs .296 career. 75.4% LOB vs 72.8% career. 4.87 ERA vs 4.91 career. Again his BABIP has jumped though in Vargas's case all those bases loaded jams he's lucked out of are keeping his ERA under his career rate.

Looking at the numbers this rotation is doing exactly what is expected of them. They are all throwing the ball the way you would have expected to start the year. The culprit is how terrible our defense is. We have the 3rd worst DER in the NL as a team and the 3rd worst plus/minus in the NL. Our RZR is the 2nd lowest in the NL. This isnt' really a case of the rotation letting us down, its a case of our defense letting us down.

Jenkins range is more or less gone, Braun and Weeks are butchers in the field, Fielder is slightly below average and Hall has been pretty brutal. Estrada is a poor defensive C. Unless the ball is hit to Hardy or Hart we are hurting our pitching. The plus/minus system suggests our team has missed 30 more plays than an average defense. We have missed 67 more plays than the Cubs on the year and 92 more than the Mets (best defense in the NL).

[theavrock]

Those stats are pretty interesting. Now how much of that will improve over time as the young infield matures? None of the guys you mentioned save possibly Weeks and Jenks are going anywhere anytime soon. Are we destined to always murder our pitchers or are the chances that these guys continue to improve fair to good?

[bklynbrewcrew]

Very interesting posting and its really not that surprising to hear from watching these games. The defense is flat out awful, especially Weeks, Braun, and Estrada.

[endaround]

Jenkisn is still an above average defender. Then again when you pool of talent includes Dunn, Lee and Bonds its not like you have a huge baseline.

[Ennder]

Jenkisn is still an above average defender. Then again when you pool of talent includes Dunn, Lee and Bonds its not like you have a huge baseline.

 

I'd say he's pretty average, he plays deep and has a strong arm so he limits the extra base hits but a lot of singles fall in front of him because of it. Its certainly more the IF than the OF at fault though.

 

I'm just kind of tired hearing all this talk of putting X or Y pitcher in the bullpen when its more the defense that is the problem than the pitching. Last night Capuano gave up one double, 1 BB, 1 HBP and 6 K's in 4.1 IP. That should be a pretty good outing but because our defense can't make a play he gives up 8 hits and has an ugly line.

[igor67]

That does present a rather strong case about the impact of the defense rather than simply bad luck. The question is what will the defense by like going forward? I'd like to see a full season on Hall along with a month to month progression, Weeks I think we are more or less at the what you see is what you get stage, and Braun has kept the errors down. Basically though our 3 biggest offenders have a lot more defensive potential and 2 of them are still within a couple of years of position switches.

[Invader3K]

I agree that Capuano's start was hindered by the defense last night. There were probably at least three plays that should have been made, which resulted in extra hits and runs.

[endaround]

BP has Jenkins at 4 FRAA which is a decent amount for a 2/3 time player. He's obviously not the same player that he was 7-9 years ago defensively.

[Fatter than Joey]

Jenkins is still an above average defender. -- I don't think so -- plus he gets platooned with Mench. Last night Jenkins made a bad throw to the plate, his defense is notably worse -- I don't think he is a butcher or anything, but I think his D at this point benefits from past years respect.

 

Capuano certainly wasn't dominant last night, but the defense (and BP) pretty much Yosted him, our starting pitchers almost have to be dominant to win.

 

As a side note -- I have been watching Bush very closely this year -- and the one thing I have noticed, is that he lives up in the strike zone a lot more than he has in years past -- He is walking more batters, and is giving up more extra base hits per 9 innings. I think Bush has gotten hit harder this year more than he has been hit more frequent -- and I think that is the biggest factor in his disappointing 2007 -- certainly though our D is not helping us out at all, and is continually Yosting us.

[Ennder]

Bush has always given up a ton of extra base hits.

 

He has given up 98 'extra bases' in 136 2/3 innings this year. .72 per IP

Last year he gave up 126 'extra bases' in 210 IP. .6 per IP

The year before he gave up 101 'extra bases' in 136 1/3 innings. .74 per IP

 

Its up a little bit but even at last years rate you'd expect only 17 fewer bases overall and last year seems to be more of the outlier.

[Mike Felder]

Great post. I always thought the defense had a lot to do with our pitching woes, nice to see that you took the time to spell it out.

[MJLiverock]

I just don't know if I buy the whole idea that the Brewer pitchers are just unlucky. Luck plays a part and evens out but what are the odds of all those guys suffering from bad luck for this length of time. Stats like BABIP explaining luck are fine as long as you assume the pitcher is throwing the same pitches which sometimes get hit at a defender and sometimes not. But if a pitcher nibbles, can't throw strikes, takes something off to get it over the plate, or just has to rely on one pitch he is going to get hit more and have a higher BAPIP.

 

It isn't luck it is not having the stuff to either lure a hitter into swing at bad pitches because he is behind and has to defend, or has the hitter guessing wrong, or just being good enough to blow it by a guy now and then. A pitcher doesn't have to see his hit rate go up and have it declared bad luck, maybe his stuff or control just isn't what it was or where it should be and that is talent not luck. A pitcher can just lose it and it is entirely possible those old average hit rates for our pitchers are a thing of the past. I wish I could believe it will all even out and Bush, Suppan, Cappy will all turn it around but for as weak as they have been to even things out they are going to have to start throwing CG's this 4-5 inning stuff is killing the bull pen.

[monty57]

MJL, I think that rather than luck, Ennder is attempting to show that our defense isn't getting to balls that an average team's defense would get to. These aren't registered as errors, but they are still a result of a below average defense.

 

For example, if the bases are loaded and a grounder is hit in between Braun and Hardy, Braun is less likely to get to it than let's say Rolen is. By not getting to the ball, he cost the team an out, and also allowed 2 runs to score that otherwise wouldn't have scored.

 

That said, I agree that the short outings are killing our team. This is possibly a reason for some of the short outings.

[Ennder]

But if a pitcher nibbles, can't throw strikes, takes something off to get it over the plate, or just has to rely on one pitch he is going to get hit more and have a higher BAPIP.

 

BABIP doesn't work like that, you don't keep your normal K rate, normal BB rate, normal GB%, normal HR rate and have just your BABIP go up as you age. If your BABIP is screwy compared to your own baseline but your other stats are normal there are two explanations, luck and bad defense. In the Brewer's case since the entire team has bad BABIP's and the defensive metrics all point to a bad defense I'm pretty sure its just bad defense at work.

 

The point was the things that are really under a pitchers control have stayed more or less exactly the same for the rotation, we are just giving up a ton more hits than normal. More hits equals higher pitch counts, more big innings and pitchers leaving games earlier. It then leads to a worn out bullpen. Our defense is directly related to the struggles of this team and this rotation.

[Fear The Chorizo]

any time I hear "luck" involved in baseball numbers discussion, I cringe.

 

If you really want to factor how lucky or unlucky a pitcher has been with the balls put in play against him, you'd have to factor all the lineouts, screaming grounders right at fielders, and diving catches as to boosting the pitcher's "luck". Even that doesn't factor in ABs where guys sacrifice themselves by punching a grounder over to the right side to advance a runner to 3rd (those don't count as sacrifices in the official scorebook). What about the "luck" or "unluck" of a pitcher throwing to an abnormally large or small strike zone on any given day, based on the human element of the umpire? What about weather conditions? Wind conditions? There's too many variables involved in the game of baseball to possibly quantify everything "lucky" in baseball statistically.

 

IMO, any time the best argument for keeping a struggling pitcher in his role is that he's been "unlucky", people are looking way, way to hard to find something positive about a pitcher who's performing poorly. After watching his team lose 15 straight games he's started, I'm pretty sure Capuano isn't calmed by the notion that if only he were luckier, he'd have better results. In reality, the results speak for themselves, and the only result that ultimately counts is wins vs losses.

[brettac1]

The defense is awful. I had posited this fact as a reason to stay away from Suppan and pitchers of his ilk for a long time. The infield defense in particular is brutal. Three below average at best defenders don't really help.

[Ennder]

Well its not really luck, its sample size or variance. There isn't a really good term for it. Singles are noise in a pitchers stats, they have almost no control over how many singles they give up. What they can control is how many balls are hit in the air vs on the ground. ERA and BAA are two of the least useful stats for judging a pitcher over a small sample of data yet they are two that get used very frequently.

 

Pitchers are extremely inconsistent in general so any time you are looking at a small sample you are in a bit of trouble. Zambrano for example has gone from being horrible for two months, to being the best pitcher in baseball for two months to being horrible again.

 

Capuano had at least 4 games in that streak of 15 that he should have won. He pitched 7+ Innings with 1 or 2 ER. He hasn't pitched well overall since coming back but he hasn't been a complete train wreck either.

 

48.1 IP, 19 BB, 45 K, 6 HR, 4 HBP, 533 strikes vs 317 balls. The real culprit in that stretch has been a horrible BABIP which over a small sample is most likely varience given his other stats. There is a chance that his injury is still lingering and it only shows up when he pitches out of the stretch though, he does seem to be getting into a lot of big innings and normally that just means some bad luck but with an injury in the picture it could be more than that.

[scrapiron]

Interesting post, but IMO a bit of an excuse maker.

The lack of defence hasn't affected all pitchers equally, as if it were just the defence, or at least defence being a significant factor, it would.

Despite Sheets' increased walk rate and decresed K rate he has a respectable .244 BAA, below his career number and lower than last years. It is also his 3rd lowest of his career.

Gallardo and Parra both have a respectable .239 and .253 BAA with only Parra K-ing more than 1 per inning.

CV has a BAA of .236 and also not K-ing more than 1 per 9.

Vargas is right around career norms for BAA against and is right around his career ERA.

If the increase in BABIP (thus leading to higher BAA) is due mainly to defence, why hasn't it affected the above in the same manner as it has Suppan, Bush, and Capuano?

Bush and Capuano have increased their walk rate this year, Cap significantly from last year. What that tells me (and from what I've seen) is that both lack command and both are pitching from behind a lot. Pitching with hitters counts means you're going to get hit a lot more.

And as far Cap is concerned, he has been god awful with runner on this this year. His BAA with runners on is almost 30 points higher than his career number, but his walk rate is also up with runners on is well, walking one more batter for every 3 innings pitched.

As far a Suppan is concerned, his walk and K rates seem the same, but I also have seen him thow a lot of balls with his first two pitches and he has been behind in the count A LOT it seems. Although this is only observational on my part and I cannot back it up with numbers.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that while I'm sure defence has played a part, the problem of the staff (or certain members of it) has more to do with command and control issues leading to more walks, more baserunners, better hitters counts, and more hits. All leading to an increase in runs.

 

[valpocrewsader]

BABIP doing him in. That could mean bad defense or bad luck, take your pick.

Why does it have to be one of these two options? Why can't it mean more homeruns given up or simply more hard hit balls in general (which I would think would yield more hits)? If a pitcher this year gets behind in the count more than the previous year, or loses some velocity, or loses some command on a breaking pitch that forces him to throw more fastballs, or even flatout starts being more predictable and "figured out" by the league, why couldn't those all result in a hitting advantage that explains away a BABIP jump without it being due to luck or defense? I don't necessarily think you can always go with luck to explain why one year's easy groundouts are next year's hot grounders that get through ... or why one year's flyouts are next year's gappers off the wall.

 

(BTW, I'm not trying to argue that we don't have some serious defensive problems. We do.)

[Ennder]

BABIP doing him in. That could mean bad defense or bad luck, take your pick.

Why does it have to be one of these two options? Why can't it mean more homeruns given up or simply more hard hit balls in general (which I would think would yield more hits)? If a pitcher this year gets behind in the count more than the previous year, or loses some velocity, or loses some command on a breaking pitch that forces him to throw more fastballs, or even flatout starts being more predictable and "figured out" by the league, why couldn't those all result in a hitting advantage that explains away a BABIP jump without it being due to luck or defense? I don't necessarily think you can always go with luck to explain why one year's easy groundouts are next year's hot grounders that get through ... or why one year's flyouts are next year's gappers off the wall.

 

(BTW, I'm not trying to argue that we don't have some serious defensive problems. We do.)

More HR's given up wouldnt' do anything to BABIP. Harder hit balls would change things other than just BABIP. Getting behind in the count leads to more BB's. Losing velocity would see a decrease in K's. Being predictable would see an increase in HR's and fewer K's. Absolutely nothing has changed about these pitchers except their BABIP, all of their stats scream career normal except how many singles they have given up. Since its all of them having the same problem and the fact defensive metrics suggest we stink at defense, I think its a pretty normal conclusion to draw.

 

BABIP has little to nothing to do with how good a pitcher you are. Look at the 2006 leader board for worst BABIP's and you get guys like Bonderman, Harang, Pettitte, Penny etc. Look at the best BABIPs and you get guys like Francis, Benson, Washburn, Marquis etc. The stat doesn't vary a lot based on how well or poorly you are throwing the ball. Over a very small sample it shows extreme variance. In general its controlled by your home park, the defense behind you and the type of pitcher you are, not how good or bad you are.

 

When you are pitching poorly you might give up more "screaming line drives" but you also give up more HR's, don't K as many, probably walk more. You don't have all your other stats stay the same and just your BABIP changes. If you are pitching well you might get more popouts etc, but you are also getting more K's, fewer BB's etc. When the only thing out of whack with a pitcher is his BABIP it really narrows down what is going on.

[bjkrautk]

The problem with BABIP is that there's no measure of quality of contact. When a pitcher is hitting his spots, balls that are hit poorly get turned into outs far more often than when he's missing his spots and has to "give in" to the hitter. A hard-hit, 2 hop grounder down one of the lines is every bit the GB that a swinging bunt to the pitcher is.

 

Blaming things on the defense sounds nice, except Bush only has 2 unearned runs on his line for 2007. The biggest difference that I can see is that he's markedly worse when pitching to the first batter in any given inning (either 'batting leadoff' or 'none out/none on' in your ESPN.com splits). He's only .010 worse in OPS when pitching with runners in scoring position from 2006 (which tends to negate the 'bad defense costing him runs' theory, unless we have 'clutch' defenders)....he just finds himself in that position far more often this year.

[TeeJayh1980]

FIP, BABIP, LOB, DER?

 

Can someone explain what these abbreviations mean? Thanks.

 

Oh yeah, and what the heck is WHOA SOLVVD?

[brettac1]

Fielding Indepent Pitching

Batting Average on Balls In Play

Left On Base %

Defensive Efficiency Rating (?, not sure what the R is)

 

Try the Hardball Times Stats Glossary:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/

[Ennder]

FIP, BABIP, LOB, DER?

 

Can someone explain what these abbreviations mean? Thanks.

 

Oh yeah, and what the heck is WHOA SOLVVD?

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/

 

That will do a better job answering your question than I could.

 

WHOA SOLVVD is explained in this link.

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=6641

 

 

[MJLiverock]

Why would/has the Brewer defense gotten so much worse? Weeks is better than he was last year and really has missed a lot of games putting Counsellino in at 2nd base who are supposedly better defensively anyway. JJ is supposed to be an upgrade over Hall at SS. Jenkins in LF should be better than Lee, Hall although new in CF can't be worse than Brady Clark who I believe was one of the worst CF in baseball (no arm, no range, played on warning track because he couldn't go back on a ball so he watched a lot land in front of him), Hart in RF ? maybe worse than Jenkins but remember this is the 32 year old Jenkins not the 27 year old. Jenkins is still better than Lee in LF but is Hart that much worse in RF? Prince is still at 1B. That leaves 3B and C as postions that could be and probably are playing worse defense, unless you want to say Hardy hasn't been all he was built up to be defensively.

 

I just feel like blaming our pitching woes on luck is reaching for excuses for poor performances.