Is Cappy's year similar to Turnbow's last year?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Ok. Chris Capuano has melted down this year and I am comparing his year this year to Turnbow's year last year. Both cost their team countless games and were left in their positions way too long before action was taken. The problem now is that we don't have a viable replacement for him because of innings limits on young pitchers.

 

If Ben Sheets is healthy right now, Cappy is long gone from the Brewers rotation. I claimed in June when Cappy went on the DL that the Brewers were a better team as a result and that thread I started got shot down worse than a goose during hunting season.

 

The good news to all this is that Turnbow bounced back the next year so maybe Cappy will come back next year and be back to his old self. How wacko do I sound by making the Turnbow, Cappy analogy?

[pitchleague]

they cut into the post-game press conference with Yost mid-answer, but Ned made it sound like he will be talking to Doug about finding someone to replace Capuano. At least, that's what I kind of got out of it. He didn't say "Capuano" but his tone and demeanor made it seem that that's what he meant. I can't say for sure, though, as, again, they came into it as Ned was answering, so I didn't hear the question.

 

Do you think that there is any way Melvin could find somebody ala Don Sutton here in August? I know Pittsburgh wants to keep Matt Morris, so would there be anybody else out there?

[brettac1]

There's probably a lot of guys. Probably any veteran on a bad team could be had.

[Ennder]

The first question is how bad has cappy been during the streak.

 

It has been very ugly but he has lost the following games as well..

 

7 IP, 2 ER

7 IP 2 ER

7 IP 2 ER

8 IP 1 ER

 

Obviously the losing streak is not all that big a deal, he should have won some of those games.

 

The next step is looking past the luck stats and comparing this year to 2005 (assuming 2006 was a fluke).

 

This does not include today's start unfortunately.

 

7.79 K/9 vs 7.23 K/9. His K rate is up which is good.

3.62 BB/9 vs 3.74 BB/9. His BB rate is down which is good.

43.4% GB vs 37.7% GB. His GB% is up which is good.

1.02 HR/9 vs 1.27 HR/9. His HR rate is down which is good.

 

Now lets look at the more luck based stats.

 

.332 BABIP vs .291 BABIP, he is giving up more lucky hits.

67.4% LOB vs 77.3% LOB, he is giving up more runs when guys get on.

 

Capuano is pitching better than in 2005 with worse results, sorry to say but there is nothing 'wrong' with him other than a little bit of bad luck and maybe an even worse defense than last year. This can be said of our entire rotation this year, we either have just had terrible luck or our defense is a significant notch below the last two years, take your pick but there is no reason this rotation should be worse than last two years from a pure pitching standpoint.

[DHonks]

Ender, he's had some bad luck, but a 6+ ERA in 15 games shows that there simply can't be 1 or 2 outliers skewing things. Cappy's a capable pitcher that should have a 4.25 ERA. I felt since May that he could be a huge trade candidate this offseason as he might have tons of value, and his salary might soon begin exceeding his performance.

 

With Carlos Villanueva struggling in the pen lately, maybe they could use a flip flop for a start or two. In sports, sometimes just taking a little time off can be beneficial for clearing minds.

[kgbaseball]

Cappy's just not getting it done. I'd like to see Parra take his rotation spot for now.

[brettac1]

Parra's going to run out of innings.

[MJLiverock]

Cappy's last four starts have been less than stellar. I don't have the pitching charts but could it be that his "bad luck" is due to falling behind in the count and then having to throw a get it over pitch which gets hit resulting in his higher BABIP? The thought came to mind tonight when I noticed how many pitches he threw (96) in just 4.1 innings. His prior start was 90 pitches in 5 innings and only 50 for strikes including 7 hits. Before that it was 90 pitches in 5 innings including only 64 strikes of which 10 were hits.

 

I realize on a night like tonight it seemed as if no Brewer could throw stikes but Parra had the same problem. He couldn't throw a strike and pitched from behind as well with only 2.2 innings and 48 pitches of which 26 were strikes (4 hits).

 

Brewer pitchers may be having a problem of not throwing strikes.

[pitchleague]

ennder, I'd agree with you that his "luck" numbers are what is killing him. And I agree that he's having a good year from a certain point of view. But as others have said, we need to do something because right now he needs a break from the mental part of pitching. Maybe skip his next start?

 

We're in a playoff race and something needs to be done. Either that or Capuano has to "wake up" in those "luck" situations and pitch.

[danzig6767]

How many more times are we going to blame bad luck for why guys and/or the team is struggling?

 

Since the All-Star break last year,Capuano has produced results like you'd be semi-ok with from a 5th starter.Dave Bush is supposed to be another of our bad luck brigade and if only bright clouds hovered over him instead of menacing dark clouds,he'd make that big leap from decent starter to maybe a 2/3 quality starter.Yet,here were are roughly 350 innings and 55 starts into to his career as a Brewer and during that time he has about a 4.70 ERA.Certainly not horrible or a pitcher i'd be actively trying to rid the Brewers of,but i'm not holding out hope that all he needs is an effective lucky rabbits foot and bam,Bush becomes the starting pitcher everyone is hoping for.

 

Plus,teams today can easily review and chart every pitch these guys throw,trying to form conclusions as to why so and so hitter/pitcher is getting poor or good results.I'll admit to guessing here since i'm obviously not in these review sessions,but if i had to guess,my money isn't on Maddux/Capuano saying to themselves,damn i'm throwing the ball really well overall since the All-Star break last year and since May this year,but the baseball luck gods are being so cruel to me.

[bklynbrewcrew]

While Cappy has been bad for the most part he hasnt been hit all that hard. There have been numerous seeing eye singles and the defense behind him has been atrocious. I would give him at least one more start.

[Ennder]

How many more times are we going to blame bad luck for why guys and/or the team is struggling?

 

As long as you are judging pitchers by their last 2 games and by their ERA you are going to hear it, those are terrible methods for judging pitchers. Part of the problem is the perception that Capuano was a good pitcher going into the season. He was extremely lucky in 2005, his ERA should have been 4.50 instead of under 4.00. In 2006 he cut his BB rate in half and he looked like a much better pitcher but the BB's have gone back up this year and he's back to being a 4.50 ERA type pitcher, one who has a bad babip and lob% which is varience more times than not.

 

The team itself is struggling because its not playing very well, we are right at our expected W/L record so there is no luck involved in that.

[JohnBriggs12]

Ennder,

 

I used to get roasted a couple years back when I used to point to the games Wes Obermueller pitched well. Glendon Rusch didn't pitch bad every game when he was going through his 1-12 season in 2003. Sure Capuano has had some decent games during the bad streak and some times he's had some bad luck, but he's also been hit very hard. I was at the Met game a couple weeks ago and once he got to the 5th inning or so, the Mets hit one rocket after another.

 

You just cannot justify running him out there in the middle of a hot race. His pattern has been to be effective for a few innings, so why not move him to the bullpen? They did that with Rusch in 03 and he was much better out there. It makes me laugh when people say Parra's innings are "running out" as if there is a rule banning him from pitching more than 150 innings. It's an arbitrary number folks. But there are other options than Parra too. They could look at R.A. Dickey who's put together a nice year at AAA after a slow start or Mark DiFelice who's a combined 8-2 with a 2.02 ERA at Huntsville and Nashville and has allowed opposing hitters a .186 BA in 6 AAA starts.

[Ennder]

Vargas has looked worse than Capuano, has less of a track record and doesn't go as deep into games. It just makes no sense at all to me to take Capuano out of the rotation. Last night Capuano pitched fine, the defense failed to make plays behind him. He only walked 1, he wasn't behind in the count all night, he got ground balls when he needed them, the defense just failed to turn those ground balls into outs and they had a big inning.

 

I'm not saying Capuano has been an amazing pitcher, but he isn't the worst guy in the rotation right now, hasn't been in the past and I doubt he is in the future. Not to mention the fact we don't have anyone to replace him with. Parra cannot start the rest of the year, his arm would fall off.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Good luck, bad luck, whatever - Capuano doesn't have good enough stuff to be able to attack hitters 3 and 4 times through the order. Unless he runs into a team that is too aggressive and chases his changeups and slurves and other garbage out of the zone, he consistently gets into deep counts and can't get out of the 6th inning. I don't care how many seeing eye singles and duck snorts get hit off him - he puts himself in bad situations by walking and hitting batters, so those "fluke" hits get magnified with runners all over the basepaths.

I don't care how "unlucky" any pitcher is - there is still quite a lot of blame to be placed on his shoulders when his team hasn't won a single start of his since May.

Unfortunately, the Brewers may be stuck with him in the rotation, because I don't see them putting Parra in that role due to the innings he's already pitched - Sheets' injury really prevents the Brewers making any more rotation shakeups until he gets back (unless they can swing a trade for another SP).

As for '08, I hope Capuano does decently the last part of this year so Melvin can at least get some return in a trade - with Parra healthy and appearing MLB ready, there's no reason to keep Capuano around.

[lukevan]

It makes me laugh when people say Parra's innings are "running out" as if there is a rule banning him from pitching more than 150 innings. It's an arbitrary number folks.

 

Well, it's not arbitrary if the Milwaukee Brewers have set that as their cap for him this season. You're not going to see him go much over 150 IP.

[Fear The Chorizo]

7 IP, 2 ER

7 IP 2 ER

7 IP 2 ER

8 IP 1 ER

 

When an argument trying to defend a pitcher over what is amounting to a 4 month stretch of baseball has only 4 starts out of 15 to use as evidence/proof that the pitcher is performing well, it kind of looks like those 4 starts may have been the "luck" rather than the norm.

[Ennder]

7 IP, 2 ER

7 IP 2 ER

7 IP 2 ER

8 IP 1 ER

 

When an argument trying to defend a pitcher over what is amounting to a 4 month stretch of baseball has only 4 starts out of 15 to use as evidence/proof that the pitcher is performing well, it kind of looks like those 4 starts may have been the "luck" rather than the norm.

The argument wasn't that he is pitching well, the argument is that judging him by the losing streak is silly.

It makes me laugh when people say Parra's innings are "running out" as if there is a rule banning him from pitching more than 150 innings. It's an arbitrary number folks

 

If Parra pitches over 150 innings his chance of injury is going to be very high. He pitched 85 innings last year, 91 the year before and 73 the year before that. His all time high is 138 IP. There is absolutely no reason to have him go over 150 innings this year.

[Fatter than Joey]

Cappy's just not getting it done. I'd like to see Parra take his rotation spot for now.

 

I didn't think Parra looked any better than Cappy last night. To lay the blame on Cappy for last night, is entirely simplistic. I am beginning to conclude that the only pitchers that would do well for the Brewers right now are guys that can K 10-12 batters a night.

 

Cappy, Suppan, Bush and Vargas, are guys that could be replaced in our rotation -- I'm not sure Parra is going to fare any better (in a significant sense)

[JohnBriggs12]

Parra could replace Capuano for 3 starts, on 8/19, 8/25, and 8/31. With his 127 total innings to date and 6 innings per start, that would leave him at 145 innings going into September.

 

At that point we would hope that Sheets would replace him in the rotation and with the roster expanded, he could be used sparingly in September, say 5 one inning stints, which would leave him at his target of 150 innings.

 

Since Sheets threw yesterday (not coincidently on the day of a Capuano start), one could presume Sheets will throw again on Sunday, and depending on how that goes, perhaps, just perhaps, then go down for 2 rehab starts to follow.

[JJHardy7]

I'd rather save Parra and put more innings with Yo (I don't want to, but one of the two will have to go over) due to Parra's severe arm injury we had. Some can take the limit as laughable, but Parra has displayed he could be a #2 or #3 starter in the bigs as soon as next year (more likely a #3). The inning total shouldn't be taken lightly unless we want to blow his arm out again (Yo doesn't have arm history - but a possible history of being overworked in high school).

 

We either go with Capuano or get someone else to do it. I don't believe McClung is the answer since he also is only a few years removed from arm injuries and he's more of a max 5 IP/start guy.

 

My solution inside the organization would be DiFelice. He may not have any + pitches, but he's been dealing and is a pitching vet who I think might be worth the shot. His big plus is that he does not walk too many guys at all and his strikeout numbers have been high (again I don't know if that will translate well to the bigs due to his lack of + pitches).

[JohnBriggs12]

Parra's arm surgery took place more than 2 years and 200 innings ago (8/4/05). It's not like he is still popping scar tissue.

[JJHardy7]

He pitched 85 innings last year. I think a limit of 150 is fine. I just don't see the point in double last years innings. In my opinion, I think we should be cautious with him since he is young and is lefthanded. If he doesn't fit into the Brewers plans, he is big time trade bait. If the Brewers do cap him off innings wise, I'd rather have him start.

 

How many innings should he pitch this year? This is all obviously subjective, but I'd like to see the Brewers stick to their plan and not put additional stress on Parra for the sake of staying in the race and using him in a mop up role.

[lukevan]

Parra could replace Capuano for 3 starts, on 8/19, 8/25, and 8/31. With his 127 total innings to date and 6 innings per start, that would leave him at 145 innings going into September.

 

At that point we would hope that Sheets would replace him in the rotation and with the roster expanded, he could be used sparingly in September, say 5 one inning stints, which would leave him at his target of 150 innings.

True, but who replaces Gallardo when he hits 175 IP (well before any potential postseason).

 

I'd like to see Zach Jack back again, though he hasn't been too impressive at AAA. I'm afraid that we'll be stuck with Cappy unless Doug mines someone from the waiver wire.

[Kpanz20]

Yost will give Capuano another shot

 

In a decision that's sure to anger some fans and confuse others, Brewers manager Ned Yost announced today he is giving left-hander Chris Capuano another chance to save his spot in the rotation.

Yost decided to start Capuano Sunday against Cincinnati even though the Brewers have lost his last 15 starts, a club-record skid behind one pitcher. Over that stretch, Capuano is 0-10 with a 6.66 ERA, dropping to 5-10 with a 5.23 ERA overall.

Despite that horrid stretch, Yost said Capuano deserves one last chance to turn it around.

"Cappy's an all-star," said Yost, referring to Capuano earning a spot on the NL all-star staff last year and ignoring the fact he is 6-18 with a 5.20 ERA in 36 starts since.

"He needs to get himself back on track. If he gets himself back on track, he's going to be a huge bonus for us. I'm more than willing to give him more than a little leeway right not to try to work himself out of this."

At least we know there's some kind of leash on him...and Yost won't stick by the "he was an all-star" excuse for the rest of the season. I really hope Cappy turns in a good start, but if he can't... it has to be time to make a change.