Crude analysis of Milwaukee & Chicago remaining schedules

[dlk9s]

I just went through the remaining schedules for Milwaukee and Chicago to see if either team has an advantage the rest of the way. Bottom line: it's close, and a lot will depend on pitching match-ups and what teams are still in contention. This is a very, very crude, high-level look, so take it for what it is. And, obviously, St. Louis could still be a player, as well.

 

Batch 1 - Homestands

Milwaukee: St. Louis (3), Cincy (3)

Chicago: Cincy (3), St. Louis (4)

Advantage: slightly to Chicago - one extra home game (although no day off) and we'll get both Harang and Arroyo, whereas they just get Harang (I still think Arroyo is good)

Batch 2 - Roadtrips

Milwaukee: Arizona (3), SF (3)

Chicago: SF (3), Arizona (3)

Advantage: push - while we do stink on the road, Chicago gets no rest because of the extra home game.

 

Batch 3 - THE Series

Milwaukee at Chicago (3)

Advantage: Chicago, obviously. Bigger advantage if Zambrano pitches and Soriano is back.

 

Batch 4 - Homestands

Milwaukee: Pitt (3), Houston (3)

Chicago: Houston (3), LA (4)

Advantage: slightly to Milwaukee - Chicago gets an extra home game, but it's against a good team. I'll assume LA finds some hitting by then.

 

Batch 5 - Roadtrips

Milwaukee: Cincy (3), Pitt (3)

Chicago: Pitt (3), Houston (3)

Advantage: push, even though PNC is the bane of our existence.

 

Batch 6 - Mixed bag

Milwaukee: HOME versus Cincy (3)

Chicago: AWAY versus St. Louis (4)

Advantage: Milwaukee

 

Batch 7 - 2nd to Last Week

Milwaukee - AWAY versus Houston (3), Atlanta (4)

Chicago - HOME versus Cincy (3), Pitt (3)

Advantage - Chicago, in a pretty big way

 

Batch 8 - Final Week

Milwaukee - HOME versus St. Louis (3), SD (4)

Chicago - AWAY versus Florida (3), Cincy (3)

Advantage - push? We play tougher teams, but at home, and have one more game.

 

Totals: Milwaukee: 22 home, 22 road

Chicago: 23 home, 22 road

 

Final Analysis - the edge goes slightly to Chicago, mainly because of the home series against Milwaukee. The other big factor is the final two weeks. Chicago has a big advantage in the second-to-last week and while we're at home in the final week, those games are against good teams. Additionally, some of the pushes I listed for roadtrips could swing Chicago's way if we continue to lay stinking, rotten eggs on the road.

[DHonks]

What makes it tough to plan out is that the Crew plays 44 more games, Cubs 45, and Cards 47. Theoretically if the Crew goes 24-20, the Cubs have to go 26-19 and the Cards 31-16 just to tie us.

 

So here's my two goals. 1) Brewers take 2 of 3 in Wrigley, 3 of 6 vs Cards.

2) Brewers go 25-19.

 

If they do that, then the Brewers will be 87-75, the Cubs will need to go 26-16, and the Cards 29-12. So I think if they accomplish those two goals, the Division can be ours with 87 wins.

[The Ignitor]

I have visions of Soup and Cappy returning to early season form down the stretch, propelling this team to hot 1.5 month close and a 90-win finish. That's right, 29-15 finish. Call me clueless, a homer, or an optimist. But the Brewers are going to find a way to close strong, and end up winning the division by 4 games or more.

[Ennder]

Those final 4 games against SD might not all have playoff implications either, if Ari tanks like I think they will the last couple games might see the Padres already winning the division and resting a few guys for the playoffs. If STL does poorly this week they might be completely out of it as well in which case I'm not so sure they are much better than Fla or Cin. Its very hard to say.

 

Also Arroyo has been a good pitcher for half a season in his entire career, not really worried about facing him. While playing in Chi seems like a huge advantage to them we seem to play them pretty well there lately, 3-3 this year, 5-4 last year.

[dlk9s]

Ennder,

 

I agree (hence my notes in the beginning). What I would love to see (even though I live in Atlanta and do like the Braves a little, but not over my Brewers) is for Atlanta, SD, and St. Louis to all either be locked in or out of the playoffs by the last two weeks, however unlikely that is. The best chance of this happening is probably to have all three teams tank, seeing as they are all already at least 3 games out of the division lead. Obviously, St. Louis is the most likely to not have anything for which to play, considering Atlanta and SD should at least be in wild card contention.

 

Wishful thinking, yes, but I can dream.

[Ennder]

What I'm really hoping for is a Zambrano regression. He has never been dominant more than 2 months in a row in his entire career and he hasn't looked that good in his last couple starts. Marquis has been regressing for a while now, Marshall hasn't looked good lately, Hill is still getting hit pretty hard. Lilly has never gone 200+ IP in his career so hopefully he wears down. If that rotation regresses like it should combined with how mediocre that offense is I think we are in business.

[HebrewHammer]

I can only hope the Cubs have peaked. They haven't looked good at all lately, but then they do have injuries. I feel like they gave us their best and they weren't able to get over the hump. The Brewers line somehow held up. Barely, but it stood none the less.

 

Anyways, we can't worry about them. If we win then we'll be in good shape.

 

I'm really, really, really hoping Sheets comes back on time in a few weeks and this propels us into an explosion the last month of the season and into the playoffs. It feels like we hvae the ability to peak again at the right time. You have to feel like we have at least one more hot streak in us.

 

That series against the Padres could essentially be the first round of the playoffs for us and them. The winner of that series might be a wild card winner.

 

Or even more interesting, both teams make the playoffs and have to play each other right away.

[owbc]

The Cubs and Brewers can't play in the first round since they are in the same division. Therefore, if they both make it and the Brewers win the division, the Cubs (WC) would get the team with the best record in the NL and the Brewers would get the other division winner--most likely AZ or SD.

[igor67]

Without Soriano and Aramis the Cubs look a lot like the Pirates: terrible line-up interesting pitching possible. And when you talk about regression I don't see a whole lot going one way or the other for the Cubs maybe slightly more downside then upside. They straightened their pythagorean record out so there isn't any boost there. Meanwhile outside of Braun there is no player I see that says regression to the mean negatively. On the other hand the list of players who should be performing better is pretty long, Hall, Weeks(though I'm uncertain given his wrist), Almost the entire starting rotation, Hardy (from the perspective of his June and July). I think in a lot of ways the story of the rest of the season is 1) Health who gets their stars back when and in what condition is huge. 2) Luck- who is going to hit that last hot streak or ice cold streak and 3) In contrast to the last series where it was much more important to Chicago odds are pretty good that the series at the end of August could end up being the final margin for the winner. A sweep for either team probably changes the playoff odds by at least 30% (right now they've been going back and forth at about 50-50 for a couple of weeks). The winner of the series probably gets about half as much of a boost which is still big.

[SeriesFinale]

I think that Batch 5 is huge...of the road trips I'm hoping for 3-3 on that West Coast swing and hopefully 3-4 on that second to last week, and I think the Cubs will do about the same, but I think with our issues along the Ohio and Alleghany Rivers Batch 5 could really be a potential meltdown, and I'd take 2-4 there

[tomwopat]

Yeah, that CHI series looks to be huge... anyone interested in meeting up at a bar or something?

[brewcrewnation]

Cubs fans on nsbb any saying but the end of the week that they will be in first, they think we are going to get swept by St Louis and and there going to sweep the Reds and then there going to sweep St louis. I think scubs fans have been drinking to much kool aid.

[dlk9s]

Cubs fans on nsbb any saying but the end of the week that they will be in first, they think we are going to get swept by St Louis and and there going to sweep the Reds and then there going to sweep St louis. I think scubs fans have been drinking to much kool aid.

It's very possible that they could be in first by the end of the week, since our lead is only 1.5 games, but the win/loss forecast is a product of the drugs.

 

[MadisonBrewerBlue]

Comparing the cubs and brewers schedule, to me it comes down to games on the road... both teams have 22 road games left as of today. the brewers winning percentage on the road, season to date is .389, cubs, .508. tells me we have to figure it out on the road if we want a realistic chance of making the playoffs...we will never get in as a wildcard in my opinion.

[crewcrazy]

I'm worried a bit about the SF/AZ series, mostly because of pitching match-ups. I'd really like to miss Brandon Webb if at all possible in the AZ series, and Matt Cain still scares me even though he's gotten no run support this year. Maybe I'm just jittery because it was the SF/AZ road trip that was pretty much the beginning of the end last year with one of Turnbow's really, really bad runs (the little dribbler walk off for SF, Estrada's walkoff HR for AZ, etc.).

 

It'll definitely be a tight race down the stretch...I don't see either team pulling too far ahead. I'd be surprised if either the Cubs or Brewers got a 2-3 game lead at any point during the race.

[SeriesFinale]

Cubs fans on nsbb any saying but the end of the week that they will be in first, they think we are going to get swept by St Louis and and there going to sweep the Reds and then there going to sweep St louis. I think scubs fans have been drinking to much kool aid.

I think the vast majority of them take a different view than a potential 6 game sweep by the Cubs.

[MadisonBrewerBlue]

I'm worried a bit about the SF/AZ series, mostly because of pitching match-ups. I'd really like to miss Brandon Webb if at all possible in the AZ series, and Matt Cain still scares me even though he's gotten no run support this year. Maybe I'm just jittery because it was the SF/AZ road trip that was pretty much the beginning of the end last year with one of Turnbow's really, really bad runs (the little dribbler walk off for SF, Estrada's walkoff HR for AZ, etc.).

 

It'll definitely be a tight race down the stretch...I don't see either team pulling too far ahead. I'd be surprised if either the Cubs or Brewers got a 2-3 game lead at any point during the race.

i worry about any game west of the mississippi...the farther west we go the more often we have those deer in the headlight road trips.

 

[lukevan]

Comparing the cubs and brewers schedule, to me it comes down to games on the road... both teams have 22 road games left as of today. the brewers winning percentage on the road, season to date is .389, cubs, .508. tells me we have to figure it out on the road if we want a realistic chance of making the playoffs...we will never get in as a wildcard in my opinion.

 

Well, you also have to factor in that we are way better at home than they are, which has pretty much balanced our records out. But you are right that winning more on the road is key for the stretch run.

[bucks2281]

I honestly believe that the Cards' 6 games at MP will end any hopes they had of winning the division. IMO, this will remain a 2-team race, unless the Cardinals can sweep us this week. Don't underestimate that 7-game homestand at the end of September. Call me crazy, but I believe that the young Brewers will thrive against STL and SD behind the support of rabid sellout crowds all week long. I don't believe it'll matter if the Padres are out of the race; the Brewers being at home is the single most important element of that series.

 

We have to hope for three things, I guess: the Brewers absolutely, positively cannot get swept at Wrigley Field. Secondly, the Dodgers need to wake up before Labor Day, when they play four at Wrigley. Lastly, the Brewers need to split the road series in Atlanta. Most importantly, the Crew needs to take care of business against bad teams at home, and keep their collective heads above water on the road. Remember, we still have the upper hand in this race.

[berniebrewer4life]

Cubs fans on nsbb any saying but the end of the week that they will be in first, they think we are going to get swept by St Louis and and there going to sweep the Reds and then there going to sweep St louis. I think scubs fans have been drinking to much kool aid.

 

Fine, i'll flip the script on em. I predict we will have a 6 game lead at the end of the 2 series, as we win 4 of the 6 games, and they lose all 7 games.

 

[SeriesFinale]

I'm worried a bit about the SF/AZ series, mostly because of pitching match-ups. I'd really like to miss Brandon Webb if at all possible in the AZ series, and Matt Cain still scares me even though he's gotten no run support this year. Maybe I'm just jittery because it was the SF/AZ road trip that was pretty much the beginning of the end last year with one of Turnbow's really, really bad runs (the little dribbler walk off for SF, Estrada's walkoff HR for AZ, etc.).

 

It'll definitely be a tight race down the stretch...I don't see either team pulling too far ahead. I'd be surprised if either the Cubs or Brewers got a 2-3 game lead at any point during the race.

i worry about any game west of the mississippi...the farther west we go the more often we have those deer in the headlight road trips.

 

 

Normally I'd agree but I feel really good about the Brewers' chances of getting two of three in San Francisco. I watched the Giants get worked by the Nationals and Pirates at AT&T last week post-756 and they looked cooked outside of Rajai Davis.

[patrickgpe]

its much too early to start analyzing the schedule so strictly. Its very appropriate to keep track of who has more home games, but thats all i will do now. I think you did a good job of looking at it at this very moment, but injuries and resting starters for whatever reason always plays a part at the end and that is unknown.

 

As of now id say that overall the cubs have 1 more home game left and 3 home games against us so they have a very slight advantage.

[pitchleague]

Brandon Webb pitches on Friday night for the D-Backs so we may (probably) get him on Wednesday of that series.