Could Inman be on the Brewer's 2007 postseason roster?

[Crewin06]

There is no links or anything like that.

 

I was just discussing a Buehrle for Inman Deal with someone and he brought up the point that Inman won't be able to help the Brewers for another couple of seasons. I didn't really argue it at the time but it got me thinking. How long until Inman helps the big club?

 

Now we all know that Gallardo is going to be on the Brewers in one form or another at season's end and Inman is on the same track as Gallardo was last season. So what happens if Inman is moved up at the mid-season point for the minors to AA and he dominates it like he dominated A+ and Gallardo dominated AA last season?

 

Is he one of the Brewers 12 best pitchers? Could he help the team in the post season? Would the Brewers actually bring up a AA pitcher?

 

My answer to all 3 questions is Probably.

 

I mean there is Precedent for this with Villanueva last year and Eveland the year before that.

 

So what do you guys think? Even if injuries don't happen could you see Inman called up in August or September to help solidify the Bullpen to go into the post season with a starting rotation of

 

Sheets

Capuano

Suppan

Bush

 

And a bullpen of

 

Vargas

Villanueva

Gallardo

Inman

Shouse

Wise

Turnbow

Cordero

 

Maybe they will keep another bat instead. But the question still remains could Inman be called up at season's end?

[dadofandrew]

Nope, not a chance.

[BillScottCanRake]

Maybe they will keep another bat instead. But the question still remains could Inman be called up at season's end?

 

I doubt it, simply because he will have more than likely hit his innings limit for the year. The Brewers have been pretty cautious with their young pitchers and don't like to have them pitch more than 25-30 innings more than the previous year.

 

Given that Inman pitched 110 innings in 2006, and he's already to 73 this year, he's probably only got another 70 or so innings in him. Assuming he continues to start, that's only another 12-15 starts, which he should reach by the end of the minor league season.

[Boy Jeenius]

No way. Why mess with his own personal growth path? He's too important to rush.

[Crewin06]

I don't see IP as the big determinant as much as pitch count. He has been getting through Innings pretty quick. Right now he is on pace to pitch 160 innings. His next start will probably be his last for Brevard County.

 

Say through his first 7 starts for the Stars he has a rediculous sub 2 ERA with 120-130 Innings pitched and it is now Late August. You couldn't see the Brewers bumping him up to the big club to help during the stretch run and into the playoffs if it is determined that he is one of the 12 best pitchers in the organization? In the Bullpen he would probably get another 30 innings and would still be at his target of 150-160.

[Crewin06]

Quote:

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Why mess with his own personal growth path? He's too important to rush.

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Because he could probably help the Brewers without getting in the way of his own personal Growth.

 

It worked last year with Villanueva. I don't really see what is so different.

 

It's not like we have to leave him on the roster at the beginning of next season. Send him to the next step of AAA with a probable mid-season call-up. Just like Gallardo. The only difference is that the Brewers probably have something to play for this September/October. If Inman makes our team the best possible, why not have him on the roster?

[TheCrew07]

The difference is that had already pitched through A and A+ and started at AA, so his arm was more ready. Villy pitched through AA, AAA, and MLB last year for something like 182 innings... Inman will have about 130 this year max.

[Boy Jeenius]

Yo had a better run last year and is still in the minors today, learning, growing and preparing to be a quality MLB pitcher. Inman is 20 years old, having great success in A Ball, where he needs to be. Having him up and getting shelled in a pennant race is not what you do to your prized prospect.

[Tedaldtada]

I don't think the Brewers will bring him up this season. With the way they have handled Yo, Inman won't get a sniff until at least August next season. Yo didn't even get brought up last year for a team out of the race and in need of pitching even though he was by far our best pitching prospect. I think the Brewers know what they have in these two guys and they will be groomed as starters only and I don't think anything will change that. That means no Yo in the bullpen for the playoffs this year or ever. If Yo comes up, it will be to replace Vargas in the rotation. Same thing for Inman next year, if he comes up, it will be as a starter.

[recte44]

Agree with all the respondents. Inman will get a cup of coffee next September if he progresses as he has.

[BillScottCanRake]

It worked last year with Villanueva. I don't really see what is so different.

 

The difference is that Inman is now where Villanueva was in 2005.

 

Villanueva threw 114 innings in Beloit in 2004 as a 20 year old.

 

As a 21 year old, he threw a combined 132 innings in Brevard County and Huntsville. Note that is an increase of 18 innnings.

 

It wasn't until he was 22 that he was allowed a larger yearly increase in innings pitched (50+ to get him to 182), and he didn't see any time in Milwaukee until he had 80+ innings in AA.

 

I don't see IP as the big determinant as much as pitch count. He has been getting through Innings pretty quick. Right now he is on pace to pitch 160 innings. His next start will probably be his last for Brevard County.

 

I am sure the Brewers are keeping a close track the number of pitches he has thrown. We (at least I) don't keep track of the number of pitches thrown, because we don't know how many he's throwing in the pen before the game, between innings, etc. We can make an assumption, however, that his pitches/IP in 2007 are probably pretty close enough to his pitches/IP for 2006.

 

It is based upon that assumption that that a jump of more than 25-35 innings pitched over last year is unlikely to be allowed to happen.

 

If you look back to Gallardo, he threw 121 innings in his first full year. Last year he threw 155, and increase of 34. That's at the high end of what the Brewers have said they want to see for a yearly increase in innings pitched.

 

If we accept those things that the Brewers themselves have stated, and we see that Inman pitched 110 innings in 2006, I would not expect him to pitch any more than 130-140 innings this year.

 

You couldn't see the Brewers bumping him up to the big club to help during the stretch run and into the playoffs if it is determined that he is one of the 12 best pitchers in the organization? In the Bullpen he would probably get another 30 innings and would still be at his target of 150-160.

 

No, I really couldn't see that. Because his target is more than likely 135-145 innings, not 150-160.

 

First off, the Brewers aren't building towards and for this year. They are building their team to make a sustained run for several years. They don't need to add Inman to the pen and risk his future by skyrocketing his IP total to win this year.

 

It would be very shortsighted of the Brewers to increase Inman's risk of injury this year by increasing his workload by 50% over last years so he can spend time in the bullpen this year. It's the same reason that when Gallardo is called up, he will almost certainly be added to the pen instead of the rotation. They want to manage his inning total. They want to make sure Gallardo and Inman don't turn out like Neugebauer.

 

He's a remarkable 20 year old, but he's still only 20. I want to see Inman in the majors as much as anyone, and as soon as possible. But if he throws 150 innings this year or spends one day on the 25 man roster, I'll be very, very angry at the Brewers front office.

[et bbal]

Why mess with his own personal growth path? He's too important to rush.

 

While I agree about his importance to the organization, I disagree with the messing with his personal growth path. I would think with all prospects the Brewers would be monitoring them and continually changing the plan. Player A is struggling a little more than we anticipated so we slow down is advancement. Player B is showing remarkable growth so speed up his path. I could see Inman moved up to AA this tear and in camp with the Brewers next spring and then who knows for next year. I agree it won't happen this year, because that would be incredibly fast.

[Crewin06]

Thanks Bill Scott.

 

This is the type of discussion that I was looking for.

 

I don't really think it is probable.

 

But I do think the option is there and it has a possibility of happening, I was just raising the question.

 

I do think that the IP limit has a lot of weight in the decision. But our estimations on the IP limitation differs slightly.

 

I agree that the Brewers aren't building towards this year alone. But if you can win this year than I see no reason in shielding a player from playing in the Majors if he can help right now. I am not saying that we should make him a starter and run up 240 innings on his arm. However if he dominates AA and he is on of the best pitchers in the organization then I see no reason why he shouldn't get some work in the majors as long as he stays within the limitations that the Brewers have set for him. Now if the Brewers feel that he isn't one of the 12 best pitchers at this point in the organization then it is a moot point.

 

I know that he has a future as a starter and would probably go back down to AAA or something next year to build up endurance. I was just throwing a hypothetical out there. Personally I don't think it is going to happen either. It is an option though that I could see happening in the right circumstances.

[BillScottCanRake]

I agree that the Brewers aren't building towards this year alone. But if you can win this year than I see no reason in shielding a player from playing in the Majors if he can help right now.

 

There is no guarantee that adding Inman, no matter how good he might perform in Huntsville, will put the Brewers over the top and allow them to win a WS.

 

Inman could be added to the pen and put up Dana Eveland 2005 numbers, or he could pull an Eldred (in more ways than one!). With that lack of a guarantee, the Brewers need to consider some probabilities.

 

- Does a large increase in the number of pitches/IP thrown from one year to the next increase the possibility of an injury?

 

I think it's fair to say it does- how many pitches and innings and how much is open to debate, of course. But I don't like taking a chance on a guy that has a big shot at being a big time part of the rotation for four or five years.

 

You can't totally prevent injuries, and you can't baby players, but you've got to be smart and make sure they build towards being a 200 inning guy in the majors. You have to, as best you can, manage his risk.

 

- Are you willing to burn an option on a player who will have less than 70 AA innings to his credit?

 

That might not seem like a big deal, of course, but what if he gets hurt in 2008? At that point, he either has to be placed on the ML DL (in which case he gains service time towards arbitration and FA), or he has to burn his second option in the minors. Neither option is very good.

 

Or, what if he struggles a bit in the majors like Eveland did and he uses an option again in 2008? That makes 2009 make-or-break.

 

Suddenly, the margin for error with him is smaller. It might not matter, but it might.

 

At this point in his career, I think it's much more important to limit risk than it is to put him in Milwaukee's pen. There is more benefit to Inman and the Brewers- the risks outweigh the rewards.

 

I am not saying that we should make him a starter and run up 240 innings on his arm. However if he dominates AA and he is on of the best pitchers in the organization then I see no reason why he shouldn't get some work in the majors as long as he stays within the limitations that the Brewers have set for him.

 

Let's pretend that the Brewers have set a firm 135 inning limit for Inman. Let's also pretend he's added to the 25 man roster, and he becomes a valuable member of the pen. And, lets say that on Sept 18th, with the Brewers 3 games up on the Cubs, he throws his 135th inning.

 

Now what? Short of getting injured, that's probably about the worst possible scenario, because it forces the Brewers to decide between additional risk and potentially not making the playoffs.

 

It would take the edge of making the playoffs to lose Inman to TJ surgery or something like that.

 

All of those things will make the Brewer rightly cautious. I guess if you are looking for someone to say "is it at all possible", then yeah, it is possible- he's Brewers property and he's a top prospect. Personally, I think it's more likely we'll see LaPorta in Milwaukee this year than Inman.

[Crewin06]

If 135 Innings is his limit this year, this discussion is also moot. There is a fine line between coddling and babying and I think 135 innings for someone who will have 80 innings in the first half of a season is babying. Gallardo had 154 last season. Tim Dillard had 180+ in his first crack at A+ at 21/22 up from 70 the previous season. Now I am not saying going Dillard's route with Inman would be smart but it can be done without the player killing himself. If Inman's limit is really only 125 - 135 then he would need to be shut down 3/4 through the season. The 180 would also be asinine, but a happy medium of what Gallardo established last season would be right about where I would expect him to be. That way in 2008 he can try to build up to 180-190 and in 2009 as a 22 year old he can be ready as a full time starter to put up 210-230

 

Good point on the options also. but really how many options does a player have? I am not really on the up and up on player option aspect of the game. It seems like Zach Jackson has been bumped up and down a couple of times, same with Jose Cappellan. Dana Eveland was shuffled around a bit as was Ben Hendrickson. Did Hendrickson pass through waivers a couple of times over the last few seasons. I know he was out of options this season but he was also 26 and I believe he was with the club since High School.

 

The reason I brought this up is the point of the Minors is to help build up talent for the Big League club. If Inman can help the big league club and is one of the best pitchers in the organization than what would you rather do have him get his innings at AA or have him get his innings in MLB.

 

The more I think about it the more improbable I think it becomes but personally I think I would rather see Inman out there in September or October than someone like Cappellan or Spurling. But this is also coming from someone that hasn't seen Inman pitch. So there is probably a huge gap between my perception of their ability to perform and their actual ability to perform.

[TheCrew07]

Well it's not so much innings as it is the pitches. Dillard was pitching complete games on 85 pitches, he was ground ball machine, that's something that no one really does, he's unique. Yo! is much more statistically dominant, but he's lucky to get through 6 innings with less than 100 pitches, Inman's pitch counts aren't as high usually, but I think you can see my point where an inning for one pitcher isn't the same as an inning for another.

 

Comparing 1 pitchers innings from 1 year to next is much more valid, as that's a determination of how much stress the organization is willing to put on a pitcher's arm. In Dillard's case his innings actually went down as hitters began to work the count more against him (from A+ to AA), but I'd venture a guess that he through more pitches, but I've been unable to come up with the exact number of pitches he's thrown, maybe my google skills stink.

[BillScottCanRake]

If 135 Innings is his limit this year, this discussion is also moot. There is a fine line between coddling and babying and I think 135 innings for someone who will have 80 innings in the first half of a season is babying.

 

The prevailing thought is that injuries tend to occur in younger pitchers not so much from a certain workload at a certain age, but rather increasing a players workload beyond a certain point from year-to-year. Any sort of increase beyond a certain point is considered dangerous and potentially harmful to arms that are still developing.

 

It's not about having 80 innings now, or that he can go 160, but rather the cumulative effect all those extra pitches will have on his arm and managing risk. The Brewers, for the most part, have done a great job in that regard, and it's because of that conservative approach that people are saying there isn't a chance you'll see Inman unless you go to Huntsville.

 

Dana Eveland was recalled in part because he didn't have enough innings left to stay in Huntsville's rotation for the entire season (in addition to his success in Huntsville), and they preferred adding him to Milwaukee bullpen over Nashville's.

 

The big difference between Eveland and Inman is their age and number of AA innings. Eveland was 22 when he was called up, and had 132 AA innings. Inman is 20 and, at most, will have 50-60 AA innings.

 

I think basically your position is what you might consider if you were the Brewers (in that you might call up Inman), and my position (that the chances of him being called up are so low they are zero for all practical purposes) is what I think the Brewers will do, given what we know about how they promote and treat their prospects.

 

I firmly believe that given what we have seen from the Brewers, there is no realistic chance of seeing Inman, no matter what argument you put forth.

 

Good point on the options also. but really how many options does a player have? I am not really on the up and up on player option aspect of the game.

 

You can get all the details you could ever want (and probably more) by Viewing the BF.net Roster FAQ.

 

The short version, once a player is added to the 40 man roster, they get three (in some cases, four) option years. A player who is on the ML roster for the entire season does not use an option, while a player who spends time in the minors does.

 

Braun, at this point, has not used any options, because he was added to the 40-man and 25-rosters at the same time and has not spent any time in the minors since his addition to the 40 man roster. This means he has three years during which he can be shuttled back and forth between the minors.

 

Inman has to be added to the 40 man roster after next season or exposed to the Rule 5 draft. So, if the worst happens and he is injured in 2008, it's no big deal if he isn't on the 40 man roster. He can spend the entire year rehabbing and he won't burn an option.

 

Now, lets say he's placed on the 40 man roster this year and he's injured and misses 2008. In that situation, he either needs to:

 

- Burn an option - or -

- Be added the ML disabled list, meaning he saves and option but gains service time towards arbitration and FA.

 

Those things may not be the end of the world, and they might not be a big deal if he were ready to go in 2009. That said, burning an option reduces the margin for error the team and Inman have, and burning service time will make him more expensive sooner.

 

I don't want to sound like an injury is a forgone conclusion, because it isn't. I don't think it is in anyway worth risking Inman's future spot in the rotation for 30 innings in the majors at age 20, even if the risk of injury is 1 in 20.

[The Game Master]

If you wher talking about Gallardo then there is no question he will be. The way Gallardo is pitching the Brewers can't over look him much longer.

 

But in Inman case he's still in AA and there are other guys they could call for before him and the Brewers don't have that big of a need for Pitching. So there is no reason for the Brewers to even think about bringing him up entell atless this time next year.

[JoeHova]

well, Frankie Rodriguez came up in Spetember 2002 with the Angels when he was only 20, but the difference is that he had already been converted to relief that year (which is kind of weird because he was doing pretty well as a starter previously, minus one year in the Cal league, but high ERAs are the norm there). Also he had begun the year in AA and was in AAA beore year's end.