Greatest Offensive Seasons in Brewer History

[homer]

Reading the Braun for MVP thread got me thinking.....is he having the greatest season in Brewer history? In terms of OPS, both Braun (1.058 ) and Fielder (.997) have a chance to outpace the best season of all time - Paul Molitor in 1987 had an OPS of 1.004. One thing I found interesting is that the second highest OPS of all time belongs to Sixto Lezcano back in 1979. As a 25 year old, he hit .321/.414/.573 (wow).

 

I only included players eligible for the batting title in my search (otherwise Matt Wise would have two of the top three highest OPSs of all timehttp://static.yuku.com/v2//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/smile.gif )

 

For those that are curious, here are the top five:

 Molitor 1987 1.004
Lexcano 1979 .987
Burnitz 1999 .963
Yount 1982 .957
Jenkins 2000 .948 

I realize OPS isn't the end all be all stat for some so I also looked at OPS+. Here are the top five:

 Yount 1982 166
Lezcano 1979 164
Molitor 1987 161
Cooper 1980 155
Oglivie 1980 153 

Braun is currently at 171 and Fielder at 156.

[whizkid]

OPS isn't any kind of stat for comparing across eras. OPS+ is the only thing to use here, considering stadium changes also and it's not perfect.

[Fatter than Joey]

I would also like to throw out Tommy Harper had a 30-30 season for the 1970 Brewers -- I think the first in the AL history. I know Bobby Bonds did it later.

 

At any rate -- quite an accomplishment for the expansion franchise.

[Ennder]

I'd look at runs created myself.

 <span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rank</span> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Player</span> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">RC</span> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Year</span></span>
1. Robin Yount 141 1982
2. Cecil Cooper 131 1980
3. Paul Molitor 128 1991
4. Richie Sexson 124 2003
5. Ben Oglivie 121 1980
6. Robin Yount 120 1989
7. Cecil Cooper 119 1982
8. Tommy Harper 118 1970
9. Robin Yount 117 1987
10. Cecil Cooper 116 1983
11. John Jaha 116 1996

Fielder is at 98, Braun is at 75.

 

(I don't know how to make that look nice with these new forums)

[LS Brewer]

I am no statistician, but... It seems runs created per plate appearance might be a better way of measuring players against each other considering we are trying to measure in-season performance of Braun and Fielder against full season performance of other players.

[Ennder]

I am no statistician, but... It seems runs created per plate appearance might be a better way of measuring players against each other considering we are trying to measure in-season performance of Braun and Fielder against full season performance of other players.

 

Yeah it would be, but I couldn't find the top 10 in RC/27, heh. Thing is that no matter how good Braun is this year, he would have been more valuable had he started the season in the majors and RC/27 ignores missed playing time.

[Fatter than Joey]

Cooper's year in 1980 was insane -- Outshadowed by George Brett's career year -- but probably should have gotten more attention than it got.

[1992casey]

(I don't know how to make that look nice with these new forums)

I'm not sure of the best way either; I do it differently every time. And I haven't been successful at making the double-spacing go away. When either I or someone else lands on the best method, I'll let everyone know. Anyway, I've prettified your chart. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[homer]

"Anyway, I've prettified your chart."

 

Hey, can you prettify mine too??? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[uwisfan]

I don't know about runs created in determining a player's value.

But for the heck of it, I ran the RC/PA stats for those top 5 seasons listed using your RC numbers:

 

Using your RC numbers:

So the projected final results would look like:<font size="3">




</font> Ryan Braun 2007 309 .243 1. Robin Yount 141 1982 689 .205 Prince Fielder 2007 489 .200 2. Cecil Cooper 131 1980 661 .198 5. Ben Oglivie 121 1980 646 .187 6. Robin Yount 120 1989 677 .178 7. Cecil Cooper 119 1982 686 .174 4. Richie Sexson 124 2003 714 .174 8. Tommy Harper 118 1970 681 .173 3. Paul Molitor 128 1991 742 .172 11. John Jaha 116 1996 628 .170 10. Cecil Cooper 116 1983 698 .166 9. Robin Yount 117 1987 711 .165 So basically this stat shows Braun eclipsing Yount's top pace by about 20%

[JohnBriggs12]

I can't believe no mention of Larry Hisle in 1978. I know I'm in the minority thinking RBI's are a significant stat, but his 115 RBI in 520 AB's (one every 4.52 AB's) beats Braun's one in every 4.86 ABs. Hisle also posted a terrific .975 OPS with runners in scoring position that year.

 

He goes overlooked, but had he stayed healthy, there is no question those Brewer teams from 78-82 would have been historically among the greatest offensive teams in baseball history.

[RoseBowlMtg]

Great thread! I thought I would see how these guys production was with risp. Great seasons but you need "clutch" hitting.

I took the top 10 yrs along with Prince and Ryan this year along with one other player's year.

Player: BArisp: OBP: SLG: OPS: BAbip: H-AB: PA: 2B: 3B: HR: RBI: BB: K

Prince: .247: .393: .462: .855: .265: 23-93: 122: 5: 0: 5: 45: 21: 25
Braun: .342: .395: .630: 1.025: .377: 25-73: 86: 4: 1: 5: 36: 8: 19

Yount: 82: .375: .405: .556: .961: 72: 60-160: 188: 10: 2: 5: 77: 15: 17
Coop 80: .416: .478: .699: 1.172: .388: 72-173: 211: 15: 2: 10: 105: 27: 11
Molitor 91: 326: .450: .464: .914: .358: 45-138: 172: 7: 3: 2: 54: 31: 17
Sexson: 03: .291: .403: .589: .992: .304: 51-175: 216: 11: 1: 13: 83: 31: 42
Benji 80: .273: .386: .476: .862: .254: 39-143: 184: 5: 0: 8: 73: 31: 22
Yount 89: .353: .443: .549: .992: .371: 54-153: 187: 9: 3: 5: 78: 27: 20
Coop 82: .288: .335: .489: .824: 280: 53-184: 208: 15: 2: 6: 83: 16: 16
Harper 70: .252: .381: .480: .861: .267: 31-123: 157: 5: 1: 7: 51: 27: 30
Yount 87: .321: .411: .519: .930: .348: 60-187: 228: 11: 4: 6: 80: 32: 31
Coop 83: .321: .371: .487: .858: .318: 62-193: 222: 11: 0: 7: 87: 27: 32
Jaha 96: .305: .399: .563: .962: .315: 51-167: 198: 2: 1: 11: 87: 27: 32

Simba 83: .373: .423: 544: .967: .379: 63-169: 196: 10: 2: 5: 91: 19: 18

I have always thought Ted Simmons 91 RBI's with risp with only 5 HR's was special and only Coop in 80 had more RBI's with risp. Only Coop's 80 and Yount's MVP 82 were there better BA's. Coop was the only one better with babip and no one had more hits. Only if the Tony Peters news didn't come out in August that year could have been pretty special.

 

Stats do bring out interesting conclusions.

[BillScottCanRake]

I guess the only things that would prevent this season from being the best ever by a Brewer player would be the fact that it wasn't a full 162 games and a rough stretch over the last two months. To date and projected over a full season, I think he's had the greatest season of any Brewer.

 

Here are his updated numbers projected over 590 ABs against Pujols' rookie year:

 

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Braun	590	111	204	35	8	45	121	43	129	21	6	.348	.392	.666	1.058
Pujols	590	112	194	47	4	37	130	69	93	1	3	.329	.403	.610	1.013

It's hard to find anything to really complain about except that he set the bar so high it's gonna be very, very hard to meet those expectations. He's more than likely not going to be a .330-.340 hitter with 45-55 home runs every year. Which is fine, so long as he hits in the 320s with 35 to 45 home runs. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

If this pace is maintained we might have to ask how Braun's season compares to any in Milwaukee history, Braves or Brewers, instead of just limiting ourselves to the Brewers.

[Ennder]

Unfortunately his numbers suggest he's not really a .300 hitter, if he hits .290 next year I will not be upset at all.

[homer]

Unfortunately his numbers suggest he's not really a .300 hitter, if he hits .290 next year I will not be upset at all.

Which numbers? I'm just curious what you use to predict that - always looking for an edge in fantasy leagues.

[Ennder]

The first thing would be his BABIP which is .386. Its unlikely he can sustain that at over a .340 pace since nobody does so at the very least you have to look at this season as him hitting at best .308 with luck when trying to judge next year, that is the best case scenario. Worst case is his BABIP drops to around .320 (he has too many good tools to suggest he should be league average), that puts his AVG down to .288 for the year which looks more reasonable with his other stats.

 

Next is his K/BB rate, a 22% K rate with a 6.8% BB rate is not the numbers of a good average hitter. One of those numbers has to change for him to stay a .300 hitter long term. The good news is his AAA numbers were better so there is reason to expect his numbers to grow as he ages. Also with the rate he's hitting HR's you have to assume the BB% goes up with time as well.

 

Braun very well may end up as a .300 hitter in his prime, I just think looking at this seasons numbers its not safe to assume he'll hit it next year. If he dips into the .280-.290 range I'm not going to be upset with his lack of AVG or anything like that.

[uwisfan]

I would be absolutely shocked if he drops below .300 in the next few years.

[brettac1]

The amount of line drives Braun hits, along with how well he runs, makes me think he can easily hit .300. Not .350 or whatever he's at right now, though. He's going to walk more, too. He is sometimes overly aggressive, but he's getting better at recognizing when he is being worked around.

[dlk9s]

2002 was a pretty offensive Brewers season.

[Mike Felder]

OPS isn't any kind of stat for comparing across eras. OPS+ is the only thing to use here, considering stadium changes also and it's not perfect.

FWIW, here's a look at a few seasons by measuring WARP3 and adjusted EQA...it's not an exhaustive list, just what I could think of off the top of my head. (Also, I have no idea how to make a nice chart, so feel free to edit this).

 

Yount 1982 12.9 .338

Cooper 1982 9.6 .310

Molitor 1989 9.9 .308 (he had an EQA of .343 in 1987)

Lezcano 1979 7.9 .335

Jenkins 2005 8.0 .301

Harper 1970 10.0 .308

Oglivie 1980 9.6 .314

Braun 2007 5.6 .345 (to date)

Fielder 2007 7.7 .329 (to date)

 

And a couple of pitchers that had some high numbers...Rollie had a WARP3 of 9.5 in 1981, Caldwell had 10.5 in 1978, and Higuera had 11.6 in 1986.

[clancyphile]

The amount of line drives Braun hits, along with how well he runs, makes me think he can easily hit .300. Not .350 or whatever he's at right now, though. He's going to walk more, too. He is sometimes overly aggressive, but he's getting better at recognizing when he is being worked around.

 

So, teams will work around Braun to face the NL home run leader?

 

That makes a lot of sense.

[Fatter than Joey]

So, teams will work around Braun to face the NL home run leader?

 

No, of course not -- but teams and MLB pitchers will make adjustments and find some holes in his swing. I think something in the 280-310 range is what I would expect for 2008.

[JohnBriggs12]

He undoubtedly could walk more even though he's in front of Fielder. Just watch his AB's. I've seen him swing at ball 4 a number of times. I think that's a product of his youth and his confidence in his ability to hit any ball hard. Heck his HR off of Lidge was a slider about a foot off the ground. I look for his strikeouts to go down and his walks to go up. He's such a natural hitter, that once he combines that natural ability with knowledge of the pitchers, he'll be even better.

[homer]

Agreed. Most good hitters tend to walk more as their careers progress. I doubt Braun will ever be a 100BB per season guy but he will improve his percentage.

 

Pujols walk totals his first five years: 69, 72, 79, 84, 97 - all in about 590ABs.

[brettac1]

Yes, Homer, that's exactly what I was alluding to. He gets pitched carefully sometimes as it is, but the problem is that he doesn't see it and falls behind in the count. Plus, if he continues to be a great hitter and gain accolades, one of the benefits of that is added respect from umpires leading to a smaller strike zone for the pitcher and more walks. I think that's been a big part of Pujols walk rate increases.