24-10 start overrated

[BrewCityUnit]

Personally I am so tired of hearing about the 24-10 start. Why are the majority of media and fans so stuck on the first 34 games of the season....just because that is the highest games we were ever over .500? I am more concerned with the fact that we are 60-55 with 57 games left to play. So far, in my opinion the Brewers are right where they should be and need to be to have a realistic chance to secure a playoff spot. As a Brewer fan, I can't really ask for anything more. I am so excited for the rest of the season to see how it all plays out. 1/2 game lead heading into the 2nd weekend in August is pretty exciting. It starts tonight with Houston, it is time to start winning big series. And this series is as big as they come. I expect the season to swing around a little bit starting tonight while the team makes their push towards a division title.

[adambr2]

It definitely is a factor that we started 24-10 and are 60-55 right now, because momentum is an enormous part of baseball.

 

Had we started 10-24, and were 60-55 right now, and our starting pitching was coming on, and bullpen wasn't showing signs of tiring, I'd feel a lot better about the situation. You have to look at where our players are compared to where they were back in April and May, certainly not as fresh, perhaps gassed. Could they still turn it around? Sure they could, but right now they aren't exactly riding high.

[JimH5]

Why are the majority of media and fans so stuck on the first 34 games of the season

 

Because that was the peak of euphoria. That was the first impression of this team, and the thought that we had the best team in the league. Now we know that we don't have the best team in the league.

 

If, after that 24-10 start someone offered you a 36-45 mark for the next 81games, would you happily take it? Of course not. So don't be surprised when the media and fans and other posters get a little chippy about what has been a pretty terrible long stretch of games.

 

Sure, 1st place is terrific, and this is pretty uncharted territory for this team--but we could have had this division in a runaway. And instead, we're getting crushed by the Rockies and playing like anything but a first place team.

[rotoherb]

The Brewers were 48-34 on July 2nd, the same 14 games over .500 that they were when they were 24-10, and I believe it was the best record in the NL at the time. People just keep bringing up the 24-10 because it's really easy to remember and it was the beginning of the season. They were 15-5 over a 20 game span in June, but I don't think anyone has talked about how they wasted that stretch. You can take a 20 or 30 games stretch out of any season and find a hot or cold streak, the Brewers just started out the season in one so everyone is going to keep going back to it.

[Brian the Automator]

The 24-10 start got all of the bandwagoners on board. Then, as most teams do during the course of the year, they struggled. Then they came back, and more recently they struggled. I think most bandwagoners have a memory span of a fruit fly. Either that, or people get WAY too emotional about whatever the most recent trend is.

[MoneyballMan]

The 24-10 start got all of the bandwagoners on board. Then, as most teams do during the course of the year, they struggled. Then they came back, and more recently they struggled. I think most bandwagoners have a memory span of a fruit fly. Either that, or people get WAY too emotional about whatever the most recent trend is.

 

As always, right on the money. The whole issue of bandwagoners can be beaten to death, but if we had all of these fans all along, why haven't we drawn 3 million fans every year? I believe most on BF.net are true fans who have been with them long-term. We're the ones who have a right to get most excited and most frustrated because we're still here. Just need to ignore the bandwagoners (including many of the "casual" press). Whether we finish 90-72 and take the division of 78-84 in third or fourth place, most of us will be on here all off-season and again next year.

[rluzinski]

"It definitely is a factor that we started 24-10 and are 60-55 right now, because momentum is an enormous part of baseball."

 

Powell just talked about this during the last game and seemed to have the same opinion I do. Teams are hot until they aren't. Then they slump until they start winning again. The last time the Brewers had a horrible stretch, they immediately went on to win 9 of 10. Other than the impact personnel changes have on a team, you aren't really going to see any kind of streaks that can't be explained by random chance. It would be more surprising if teams didn't have some bunching of wins and loses over a 162 game season.

 

I use a crappy little simulator I wrote that guarantees that a team has the same chance of scoring x number of runs every game. You should see what kind of momentum they can build up at times!

[Ennder]

My many years of strat o matic taught me how random baseball is. Now I know that is just a baseball game but thats the entire point, teams/players go on all kinds of wacky streaks over a 162 game season even without the 'emotional factor'. You don't have to fall back on it to try to explain every little thing that happens.

[HebrewHammer]

On the opposite end when everyone in a set goes cold, in our case the pitching, you have almost no chance to win.

[MoneyballMan]

I know this is going to shock everyone coming from me, but what if they go 24-10 again? 84-65 in three weeks would look pretty good, wouldn't it? And is there really any reason they couldn't? NO ONE would have predicted a 24-10 start of essentially this same team (although I'm sure someone will claim they predicated it).

[brettac1]

Powell just talked about this during the last game and seemed to have the same opinion I do. Teams are hot until they aren't. Then they slump until they start winning again. The last time the Brewers had a horrible stretch, they immediately went on to win 9 of 10. Other than the impact personnel changes have on a team, you aren't really going to see any kind of streaks that can't be explained by random chance. It would be more surprising if teams didn't have some bunching of wins and loses over a 162 game season.

 

This is yet another one of the many reasons why Powell is just great. He was right on, he was referencing the "low point" of the no-hitter, and how after it the team got hot again. He said that while there were some in the clubhouse who said that they felt the team had momentum, that Powell himself believes (as do I) that momentum only takes you as far as the next day's starting pitcher - and that the last thing a hitter or pitcher is thinking about is what happened last night. There's just too many other things to think about.

[HebrewHammer]

I have a feeling this team is going to struggle or play .500 at best until Sheets comes back. He's that staple. I'm not sure this team can streak without him. He just gives us that edge. We need him back. Hopefully we can hold serve with the Cubs until he comes back and then surge in September and into the post season and make some noise.

[BrewCityUnit]

Powell just talked about this during the last game and seemed to have the same opinion I do. Teams are hot until they aren't. Then they slump until they start winning again. The last time the Brewers had a horrible stretch, they immediately went on to win 9 of 10. Other than the impact personnel changes have on a team, you aren't really going to see any kind of streaks that can't be explained by random chance. It would be more surprising if teams didn't have some bunching of wins and loses over a 162 game season.

 

Couldn't have said it better. If momentum played such a huge role in wins and loses then there is no way the Brewers would have lost that game last Sunday, after the dramatic come from behind win on Saturday night and the big early lead on Sunday.

[pitchleague]

well, Wednesday was pretty low, so here's to regaining focus and momentum and playing some good ball for the next week to ten days (or longer).

[Brian the Automator]

You know, you hear so much from people "if it wasn't for the 24-10 start......". The 24-10 start was 20% of the season. If I could pick out any 34 game stretch and strike it from the record that I chose, the Brewers would have the most commanding divisional lead in baseball.

[Fatter than Joey]

I know this is going to shock everyone coming from me, but what if they go 24-10 again? 84-65 in three weeks would look pretty good, wouldn't it? And is there really any reason they couldn't?

 

Yep -- Gassed BP -- Sheets hurt -- Hardy & Weeks have no chance to put up numbers they did in April. If you want to bank on the "Jenks hot Sep." go for it -- I suspect though that both Jenks and Mench have seen their best production for 2007. Suppan and Vargas are not going to get the same results they got in April/May either -- Of course this is 100% my gut speculation. I certainly do not claim this to be grounded in fact.

 

The Brewers are a young team with sucky veterans - I really don't believe that they have the stuff to turn it back on.

[endaround]

Jenkins in August so far this year:

 

.346 .393 .538 .931

 

Once is a fluke, twice a coincidence, an entire career might say something.

[Fatter than Joey]

Jenkins in August so far this year:

 

Well -- Jenks would have to step it up a smidge to be as good as he was in April, based on the line you presented, however Mench is about .400 pts in August what he was in April -- so I think overall the platoon is still going to fall short (I believe).

[endaround]

The problem isn't the platoon its the use of Mench. Mench has hit lefties a tune of .305/.338/.516 which is far from bad. The problem is against RHers Mench has the Moeller like line of .219/.250/.316. Now that wouldn't matter if Mench never was ever used against RHP unless everyone else is in the game and Capuano is back at the hotel because he's starting tomorrow. But Mench's use doesn't show that. He has 135 PAs vs LHP and 119 vs RHPs.

[brettac1]

Mench has more PA's against RHP's than Gabe Gross had in the entire time he was up this year.

 

That just ain't right.

 

It borders on absolute stupidity that Gross is stuck in Nashville.

[rluzinski]

The Brewers are a young team with sucky veterans - I really don't believe that they have the stuff to turn it back on.

 

I don't think we should expect another 24-10 run but I think the starting pitching staff should be expected to perform better than it has the last couple of months. I still feel that this team is an above average team. Good enough to hold off the Cubs? I guess we'll see.

[TracyThom]

Personally I am so tired of hearing about the 24-10 start. Why are the majority of media and fans so stuck on the first 34 games of the season

 

Have you been watching the Brewers the last 10 years? The Brewers stunk. That's why people got so behind the hot start, because it hasn't happened in a long time.