Will the NL Central winner be sub-0.500??

[Fear The Chorizo]

While this is a question that appeared almost comical about a month ago, when both the Cubs and Brewers appeared headed for 90+ win seasons, have recent events created the possibility of a division winner finishing with fewer than 81 wins?

 

The Padres came close in the NL West a few seasons ago, but IMO, there is a decent chance that no team in the NL Central will finish over .500. The Astros and Cards have been playing the best baseball lately, but even with their hot streaks they are 12 and 7 games under 0.500 right now. The Brewers have been in a steady downward spiral, and suddenly the Cubs have begun playing like they did the first 2 months of the season.

 

I hope yesterday's debacle lights a fire under the Brewers, similar to being no hit against the Tiggers - They get an off day to continue to stew over their last loss, and hopefully they can regroup - if they play well over their next nine (3 at Houston, 3 each with STL and Cincy at home), they should all but eliminate the Cards and Astros playoff hopes (yes, I said the Astros - it's not like they don't have enough time to make up ground with the way the Brew Crew and Cubs are currently playing), and probably put the Cubs into a 3-5 game hole as well.

 

Right now, I think if a team gets to 85 wins, they win the division by at least 3-4 games.

[Fatter than Joey]

I would agree that 90 wins seems a bit ambitious. The interesting thing, is that the Cards have 14 games against the Brewers (6) and Cubs (eight) -- so if they decided to go on a hot streak -- they could control a lot of their destiny, especially with both the Cubs and Crew slumping, Cards fans can probably be somewhat optimistic given they are 7 under .500 this late in the season. I think though that the WC team doesn't look like it will be a Central team anymore.

[Ennder]

The division winner will be in the 83-87 wins range most likely.

[splitterpfj]

I think the winner will be above .500, but there's no reason to expect any of these teams to reach 90 wins right now. 85 will probably do it.

[patrickgpe]

latest playoff odds from bp

 

NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs

Brewers 60 55 .506 85.3 76.7 53.85507 2.34218 56.19726

Cubs 58 55 .512 84.6 77.4 43.63585 2.52962 46.16547

Cardinals 52 59 .449 76.1 85.9 2.04606 .06895 2.11501