Our rotation sucks right now

[Brian the Automator]

"he's starting to come around".

 

In mid-August? No Brian, he's turned into Glendon Rusch. If we're lucky, maybe he'll end up a Cub someday too.

You're comparing a guy with a career 4.33 ERA to a guy with a career 5.00 ERA.

 

So what do we make of his 2005 and 2006?... Do we just throw those out and say that's not the pitcher he ever will be because he's struggled this year? Convince me that those 69 starts were flukes, compared to his 21 this year.

 

[JohnBriggs12]

Glendon Rusch had a year (2001) that was very similar to both of Capuano's best years.

 

Since 06 All Star Game, Capuano is 6-17, with a 4.75 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP and he's allowed 32 HR in 206 2/3 innings.

 

Convince me we can expect better the next 6-7 weeks.

 

There's an awful lot of guys who had their peak years in their mid to late 20's like Capuano. But when your stuff is basically a mid-80's fastball that you move around and a changeup, the league eventually catches up to you. That's not to say he won't be a decent mid to bottom of rotation guy for a few more years, but it's now crunch time in a pennant race and he continues to struggle.

[Brian the Automator]

Glendon Rusch had a year (2001) that was very similar to both of Capuano's best years.

 

Since 06 All Star Game, Capuano is 6-17, with a 4.75 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP and he's allowed 32 HR in 206 2/3 innings.

 

Convince me we can expect better the next 6-7 weeks.

 

There's an awful lot of guys who had their peak years in their mid to late 20's like Capuano. But when your stuff is basically a mid-80's fastball that you move around and a changeup, the league eventually catches up to you. That's not to say he won't be a decent mid to bottom of rotation guy for a few more years, but it's now crunch time in a pennant race and he continues to struggle.

I guess I don't understand what makes us think Capuano is never going to replicate his past two seasons worth of numbers, yet Vargas, who's had worse career numbers and is quickly turning back into a pumpkin, stays off the hook.

 

[Ennder]

Capuano's K/9, BB/9, GB% are a little better than in 2004 and 2005. His ERA is almost completely a product of the higher than normal BABIP and LOB% and the fact he was very lucky in 2005. He is pitching better than he did in 2004/2005. 2006 seems to be an outlier as he finally got his BB's down that year.

 

As a team the Brewers are towards the bottom of the league in DER and LOB% which explains most of their struggles. They are very solid in FIP though so its mostly a combination of bad luck, bad middle relief and bad defense.