A list of this season's meltdowns

[Jimbo]

After taking another punch to the gut yesterday, I decided to go on fangraphs.com to see how many heartache losses and come from behind wins the Brewers have this year. The only other time I can remember something like this is the late 70's when Bill Castro was the closer, forcing Harry Dalton to get Rollie Fingers, plus Leskanic of the 2001 season. Walk-off finishes don't always fall into this category. The Brewers are 2-6 in these games, the Cubs 2-5. With play like that, does either team deserve post-season play?

 

Brewer losses, when win prob was > 90%

5/14 @PHI 6, MIL 6

up 6-2 in 8th

 

6/9 @TEX 4, MIL 3

up 3-0 in 9th, 2 out, none on

 

6/29 @CHC 6, MIL 5

up 5-0 in 4th, 5-3 in 9th

 

7/28G1 @STL 7, MIL 6

up 6-0 in 3rd; 6-4 in 9th, 1 out, none on

 

7/29 @STL 9, MIL 5

up 5-0 in 5th

 

8/5 PHI 8 @MIL 6 (11)

up 4-0 in 4th; 6-0 in 6th, 6-1 8th; 6-3. 2 out, none on

 

Brewer wins when win prob < 10%

4/23 MIL 5 @CHC 4 (12)

down 4-0, 4-2 in 7th

 

8/5 @MIL 6, PHI 5

down 5-1 in 6th

 

Cub losses, when win prob was > 90%

4/13 CIN 6 @CHC 5

blew 5-0 lead

 

4/23 MIL 5 @CHC 4 (12)

up 4-0, 4-2 in 7th

 

5/8 PIT 4 @CHC 3

up 3-2 batting in 8th

 

5/17 @NYM 6, CHC 5

up 5-1 in 9th

 

5/25 @LAD 9, CHC 8

up 8-5 in 8th

 

Cub wins when win prob < 10%

5/1 CHC 8 @PIT 5

down 5-2 in 7th

 

6/29 @CHC 6, MIL 5

down 5-0 in 4th, 5-3 in 9th

[afeter]

this is very strange, but today i posted my list in the vent thread. i have them ranked. I will post it again here.

[afeter]

Worst brewer losses since June 9^th.

I have ranked them. Tell me if I am wrong. Sorry Prince but lately Milwaukee fans do have something to boo about.

#9

8-1-2007

Summary: Brewers take early lead on Oliver Perez on a Prince Fielder bomb. Mets immediately rally back to take lead and win game.

Heartbreak impact: We had the feisty Perez on the ropes after he made a big error and allowing Fielders 3 run homerun. Brewers pitchers allow 2 3-run hrs, Mets go on to win the series.

#8

6-17-2007

Summary: Brewers rally from down 9-2 in the 6^th to tie game in the ninth. Morneau walks off in the bottom of the ninth.

Heartbreak impact: 7 run rally and series sweep squandered away.

#7

6-24-07 Brewers lose to KC in extras

Summary: KC rallies in the 7 and 8^th to take a one run lead, brewers rally to tie in ninth. KC wins in the 11^th.

Heartbreak impact: Yovanni Gallardo has the bullpen blow his win. Brewers rally to tie. Spurling WALKS in the go ahead run at home.

#6

7-26-07 Brewers lose in extras to Cincy.

Summary: Reds tie game off CoCo in the bottom of the ninth. Win game in the tenth.

Heartbreak impact: Reds win series 3-1, in a set where the brewers lose two in walk offs. Walk off delivered by Javier Valentine 8 hole hitting catcher for the second time in the series.

#5

7-23-07 Brewers lose in extras to Cincy.

Summary: Brewers lose 1-2 in 12 innings

Heartbreak impact: Brewers opportunity to take game one of a road series against the reds ace Harrang squandered. Capuano's pitcher performance wasted. Brewers have bases loaded on in the 11^th no one out and no one scores. Walk off delivered by Javier Valentine 8 hole hitting catcher. Everyone watching the game knew Balfour had nothing.

#4

7-28-07 Brewers lose to Cardinals in first game of double header.

Summary: Brewers blow 2 run lead in the bottom of ninth.

Heartbreak impact: Brewers lose pitching gem thrown by Manny Parra. CoCo not only blows 2 run save in the ninth but also loses the game. 2 of 3 runs score with 2 outs. Brewers lose opportunity to ensure a road spilt. Impact of loss cleary evident in game 2's 2-5 loss to the Cardinals.

#3

6-9-2007 Brewers lose in ninth to Rangers.

Summary: Brewers blow 3-0 lead in the bottom of ninth.

Heartbreak impact: Brewers lose second game of a road series against the worst team in the AL. Squander a shut out by Ben Sheets. Coco shows he is mortal blowing a three run save. Rangers down to their last strike with 4 different hitters.

#2

8-5-07 Brewers lose in 11 to Phillies

Summary: Brewers blow 5 run lead in the ninth.

Heartbreak impact: Brewers blow a five run lead in the ninth. Extremely poor pitching by Wise and Coco combined with a poor defensive play by Braun allow Philly to tie game in 9. 3 runs score after two outs. Wes helms beats us for the second time this year.

#1

6-29-07 Brewers lose in ninth to cubs.

Summary: Brewers blow early 5 run lead and lose in regulation to the cubs.

Heartbreak impact: Brewers jump out to an early 5-0 lead on the road against the cubs. Yovanni Gallardo pitches a gem and the brewers blow it. With two out s Aramis Rameriez blasts a shot out off CoCo and cub fans go crazy.

[Klements Bratwurst]

This is a great thread. It is nice to have it recapped. The Brewers have lost 4 games with at least of 5-0 lead this year. Amazingly tough to swallow!! Those should be wins 99% of the time. At least they should have won 3 of those 4 and we would be out to a 4-5 game lead on the Cubs.

CoCo has been there for 5 of the "top 10" blowups too, and he was also there for all four of the games in which I referenced the Crew having at least a 5-0 lead.

The silver lining is that as pointed out, the Cubs have had there share of problems. Now to pick on the other division winners, what do they look like? Mets? Diamondbacks? Good stuff..

 

 

 

 

[BillScottCanRake]

Your post made me wonder... are those numbers out of line? While I don't remember so many heart-breaking losses, either, I suspect that is in part because better teams lead more games, and therefore have more chances to blow games big time. While the 2001 team was bad, those late 70s/early 80s teams lead a lot of games.

 

If that is the case, the Brewers getting good could result in more of these types of losses.

 

What follows is incredibly simplistic and could well be flawed because:

 

- I have no idea how many greater than 90% and less than 10% games the Brewers have had this year.

- Nor do I have time to break them up so that I don't treat a 90% chance of a win the same as a 99% chance (I'd probably group them something like 90% to 94%, 95% and above, less than 5% and 6-10%).

 

With that said, if a team has 50 leads that they have a 90% chance of holding and 30 games in which they had a 10% chance of winning (with the other 82 games falling in the middle), one would expect that team to lose 4.5 games they should have won (winning 45.5) while winning 3 they should have lost (and losing 27).

 

If that team went 41-41 in their other 82 games, that team would be 90-72.

 

At first glance, those numbers don't seem too far out of whack. They might be, especially if the Brewers are 31-6 in games in which they have a 95% chance of winning or something, but I think it might be a function of just being better and having more chances to blow it than in the past.

[BrewCrewForever]

It brings back bad memoires looking at all those meltdowns. Hard to believe we have had so many devistating losses this season. I was at the game yesterday and it was very hard to take sitting there watching it all happen.

[PKBadger]

I think the most important thing to note is that the Cubs haven't blown a game like this since May 25th, whereas nearly all of the crushing defeats we have experienced have been later in the season, where each game is getting more crucial. This does not make me a happy camper.

[wally106]

just think back to greg aquino

[SeriesFinale]

I think the most important thing to note is that the Cubs haven't blown a game like this since May 25th, whereas nearly all of the crushing defeats we have experienced have been later in the season, where each game is getting more crucial. This does not make me a happy camper.

But it's interesting that they have had almost as many. The games do all count the same but I agree that this time of year, given the minute lead we have, is not the time for these meltdowns to be piling up and makes me very nervous as to the physical and mental state of our pen.

[brewcrewkid14]

I still hold a small hope that there may be three or four more games that we win with a <10% chance of winning to even it out. I hold the belief that these things tend to even out in baseball, but I could be completely wrong. I think the Cubs doing so well lately in those types of games are also reason for hope as they are probably going to have a few more bullpen implosions before the season is over, and in no way do I expect the bullpen to go on another 22-1/3 scoreless streak like they recently had.

 

I'm still optimistic (although that optimism is wearing thin).

[mothershipconnection]

Your post made me wonder... are those numbers out of line?

 

You'd think you should, on average, have an equal number of wins and losses in games where a team with a less than 10% chance of victory pulled it off. For every comeback loss, there has to also be a comeback win.

 

Like you said, though, a potent offense and solid pen, you would think, would have more comeback wins, but then again, it means that you got yourself into a crap situation to begin with. Inversely, it may very well be that the Brewers have been so good that they have put themselves in position to blow big leads. The 2002 Brewers didn't have as many 90% chances of victory to squander.

 

Perhaps it also has to do with team make-up. If you have a weak offense, and great starters and relievers, you wouldn't be in as many of these situations as an offensive juggernaut with horrible pitching.

[Jimbo]

Your post made me wonder... are those numbers out of line?

If that is the case, the Brewers getting good could result in more of these types of losses.

 

What follows is incredibly simplistic and could well be flawed because:

 

- I have no idea how many greater than 90% and less than 10% games the Brewers have had this year.

I would venture to say they have had 66 games with a >90% chance of winning (60 actual wins plus the six blown chances), a 91% conversion rate, so maybe the numbers aren't out of line. But Milwaukee has had 54 games where the win prob dipped below 10% and only came back twice - 3.7% comeback rate.

[RU Rah Rah]

For me, that 5/14 loss to the Phillies (when Turnbow collapsed) might have been the biggest single turning point in the season. It was sort of like when the spell was broken from that great early-season run.

[rluzinski]

Wow, that actually makes me feel better about this team. You'd assume a 4-4 record and the Brewers only have 2 less wins. To be fair, they've actually outperformed their expected record when you just look at runs scored and against.

[danzig6767]

I have no idea if this year has been abnormal in regards to losses like these,but i think we notice it more for two reasons

 

1.These games matter so much more than in years past.Typically by mid-July or even earlier,the Brewers are already out of realistic playoff contention so losing games in this fashion doesn't sting nearly as much.We blow a big lead and since we would be 6-12 games back,it's somewhat of a yawn feeling compared to this year where they sting badly.

 

2.They have happened in mostly the last month or so instead of being more spread out over the whole season.Makes it feel like it is going to happen now anytime we get a big lead.

[Jimbo]

8/11 MIL 7 @HOU 4
down 4-0 after 6.

Brewers now 3-6 in these games.

 

[rluzinski]

Another thing that I'd like to point out is, if the Brewers have lost 6 games when they had a 90% chance or greater of winning, doesn't that mean they've won the other 56 times? They've lost exactly as many games as you'd expect 6 out of 62 or 10%).

 

Now raise the threshold to 97% and I bet it gets ugly. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Jimbo]

On 8/19 Brewers lose vs. CIN leading 5-0 after 3.

On 9/3 Brewers lose vs. HOU leading 7-4 after 7.

 

On 9/2 Cubs win vs. HOU losing 5-1 mid 6th.

On 9/6 Cubs lose vs. LAD leading 4-2 after 7.

On 9/17 Cubs win vs. CIN losing 6-4 mid 8th.

 

Brewers are 3-8, Cubs 4-6.