Has Jenkins Performed Up To Your Expectations?

[bigbrewkahuna]

I remember many pre season predictions of bigger and better things for Jenkins in 07.

 

The rationale being he couldn't do much worse than last year,he can only be better..He'll be more comfortable back in LF.He'll be highly motivated to get that final year of his contract picked up.He doesn't want to be stigmitized as a platoon player quite yet.He'll have more of a fire in his belly to prove his detractors wrong.His last shot at the playoffs as a Brewer possibly..He might not put up all star caliber numbers,but he should show some decent improvement over last year,etc,etc. Look for a better year out of him.

20+ HR's,80 RBI's,.290+ Average ,Maybe even better.

Sound reasoning to me ,but is he doing better than last year at this point?

 

Last year he averaged a home run every 28 atbats.This year it's better .A home run every 20 atbats, though he rarely hits against lefties.

He averaged a strikeout every 3.75 at bats last year.This year it 's one every 3.5 at bats.

OBP percentage.last year .357,this year .334.

SLG.up a bit at .471 vs 434.

OPS. 8.05 so far vs 7.91 last year.

BA..261 so far vs. .271 last year.

Most of his stats are either a little up or a little down from last year,but not much difference from last years performance.

Just makes me curious as to whether he has lived up to everyone's expectations,predictions,etc, whether this year is an improvement over 06,or were you expecting more.

 

 

(added tag --1992)

[Ennder]

He is doing about what I'd expect, he has played more against lefties than I had hoped because of the Hall injury. His OPS vs righties is down a little but all it takes is a couple HR's in the same week and its right back where you would expect it at .870ish.

Platoons are nice and all but most players see a regression(from their good side) when platooned, not playing every day causes problems of its own.

[endaround]

Keep in mind Jenkins historically is terrible in May, and June whle ok in July whiel good in April, August and September so while he hasn't been great he still has his god months to go.

[RightFieldCoder]

Endaround is correct. I can't at work, but compare his numbers now to his numbers at August 4th of last year and I'm sure you'll see a huge difference.

[Ennder]

August 4th 2006

 

384 AB, 42 R, 9 HR, 53 RBI, .255/.329/.391/.720

 

August 4th 2007

 

280 AB, 33 R, 14 HR, 42 RBI, .261/.334/.471/.805

 

OPS by month for career.

 

April - .898

May - .788

June - .755

July - .829

August - .921

Sept - .920

[IslandsAC]

OPS by month for career.

Man, I can't wait to see what those numbers extrapolate out to in October....

 

I've been happy with Jenkins, but not much more. I would have hoped for even more production because with the platoon he's been put in a position to increase the 'percentage' stats (AVG, OPS...), even if it means he's sharing the 'totals' stats (HR, RBI, ...) with Mench.

I think if you're looking at his stats for this year compared to last year, we should be expecting a bigger jump (especially in the K and HR rates that you referenced) because he really struggled last year, and this year he's being faced with fewer opportunities to be embarrassed by good left handed pitchers.

 

The platoon has been great in my mind, but I guess to answer your question, Jenkins has not performed up to my expectations (however unfounded they may have been).

[Tisko]

http://graphics.jsonline.com/graphics/photographer/66/6661_large.jpg

 

I think this play took some heat off him for a bit.

[JoeHova]

yeah, he's pretty much met my expectations, which were of a middling corner outfielder. He's been about exactly that so far this season (109 OPS+), though actually a bit worse because he needs to be platooned.

 

I guess what I'm saying is that I hope his 2nd half hot streak happens, but I don't think it always will. Let's hope that during the one year of his career the Brewers' 2nd half actually matters, Jenkins keeps up his pattern.

[ecjimg]

Yes, Jenkins has peformed up to my expectations. I expected him to strike out a lot. I expected him to have prolonged slumps. I hope this is the last year of watching the swing and miss on low inside pitches.

[jackalope02ca]

Yep. Pretty much as expected. He's well on his way to contributing to costing us a playoff spot.

[Hammer]

I guess you could say that he is what he is. I can't wait for next year when we hopefully have someone that is better than what Jenkins is. We could really use a righty stick that could hit behind Prince...

[KCBrewerfan34]

I find this thread beyond comical, before he leaves town, do you think GJ can have his typical hot Sept but this time it will mean something!!!

[BREWCREW5]

I expected more out of him this season since this is virtually a contract year for him. I too am hoping he gets hot this aug and sep but it might be hard not playing every day...

[Never Outhustled]

I have full confidence in him heating up any day now. The cool thing is, like another slow starter, Reggie Jackson, he could have the oppurtunity to carry his late season run into October, and really make a name for himself.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Despite a slow June and July, Jenks hasn't had a "bad" season, he's been slightly above average or so. Given his platoon partner that has done quite well vs. lefties, I'd say he's at least met what my expectations would be for him as a platoon mate.

 

I know that his early season numbers skew the overall, but he was white-hot during that 24-10 start, and those wins count every bit as much as any game they win now. Without that 24-10 start, the Crew is sitting in 2nd, or even 3rd at this point.

 

Regardless of how streaky a player is perceived to be, his final numbers will tell you a good bit about how much he helped the team be above (or below) average.

 

Like others though, all this logical thought doesn't keep me from hoping that he gets blazing hot now that we're down to 50 games left in a tight as heck race.

[fstorm1]

He's right about what I expected, which is to say not too bad, but not nearly good enough for him to have complained before the season about playing everyday. I think a real question is whether or not the Crew should resign him? Probably best answered in a couple months after he has or hasn't "heated up".

[rluzinski]

Offensively, a little worse than expected but not by much. His defense certainly adds to his value. Overall, I'd call him an average corner outfielder, which isn't bad considering his 2006 campaign.

[imaji]

I expected more out of him this season since this is virtually a contract year for him.

ESPN mag ran an article (iirc, in their fantasy baseball preview) that suggests contract year performances are a myth. There is no huge difference in stats before, during, and after the contract year.

 

This article:

http://roadsidephotos.sabr.org/baseball/leypoldt.htm

 

suggests that it makes a difference for "big" stars, but not little ones. IIRC the original article I referred to in ESPN, the correlation is that pitchers are far more prone to huge letdowns after signing multiyear deals, while for hitters it doesn't have a huge effect, as for instance Soriano and Sheffield this year are about roughly what you'd expect them to be, while guys like Zito are not (some knew Zito was overpaid, I'm just giving examples).

 

Another old article on the subject:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/bbw/2002-01-30/2002-01-30-fantasy.htm

 

I think about Carlos Lee (among NL leaders in RBI this year) and Magglio Ordonez off the top of my head as recent guys that perform(ed) near norms before, during, and after the big paydays. Jenkins never was at that level (and never will be), so expectations for him should be about where they are.

 

edit: PS This year, the big 3 CF free agents to be, Ichiro, Andruw Jones, and Torii Hunter, have all been, again, about what you'd expect them to be, or, in Jones' case, somewhat off his career pace.

[logan82]

I am sure you probably know, but Ichiro signed a contract extension.

[JenksFan5]

Jenkins has been pretty much what I expected him to be. I predicted at the beginning of the year that he would hit .275 with 20-25 HRs and around 80 RBIs. He might no hit those totals, but it will be close. His defense has been good and it seems that he has been responsible for more wins than any other single player on the team other than Fielder and Braun with their more consistent production, but look at the games that Jenks contributed game winning blows. I am thinking of the Sunday game against the Twins when he hit his 200th with 5 RBIs, the big 3-run homer in Texas when Cordero blew consecutive saves, the HR and two-RBI single in the 3-1 game against the Nats to push the Crew to 24-10 and a 9-1 homestand, and the walkoff against the Mets.

 

Now I realize that other players obviously played roles in those wins as well and that another player could have possibly delivered the game-winning blows in those games if Jenkins had not, but he has definitely contributed to some wins this season. Not too bad for a player who is not "clutch".

[Ennder]

I think contract years certainly motivate some players, guys like Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield who dog it a lot during the season might play with more intensity during them. I don't think its a global thing where you expect every player to play better. Jenkins seems to give it his all out there regardless of the situation, its just sometimes his all is flailing away at balls in the dirt.

 

Btw on a game by game basis Jenkins was the best clutch hitter in baseball last year, he's been the best clutch hitter on the team this season. I think its mostly just random variance as he used the be the worst on the team just a couple years ago.

[Tbadder]

He's not doing as well as I hoped; I don't know about expected. I thought the platoon might really put a charge in him, and that possibly he'd be hitting in the .290 range with 20 homers and slightly better obp.