5/9/2004 - Brewers (Santos) @ New York Mets (Trachsel)

[endaround]

Counsell is below replacement level. A 330 OPB isn't good enough to offest his non existent power. There is no way around that. Bill Hall is the superior offensive player. Bring Counsell in for late inning defensive replacement. If you want to get that 82nd win, Craig Counsell should be on the bench. And if defense is the problem, why not release Durrington and get an actual SS?

[bjkrautk]

Over the past 13 seasons, the league average for OBP is about .340 (I got that number from the lgAvg. statistic from Royce Clayton's page on Baseball-Reference.com....if someone else has a better long-term read on the league average, I'd gladly shift to it.) In 8 major-league seasons, Counsell's career OBP is .348.

 

Yes, currently Craig sports a .321 OBP, but I don't expect him to stay at that rate any more than I expect him to hit around the Mendoza line over a full season.

 

For some reason, Craig Counsell is an enigma in baseball terms: he's a player reputed to "doing the little things" and "playing with hustle," yet at the same time, his best skill is the ability to get on base. As the Brewers lineup is put together, Counsell is well suited to hitting second in the lineup; the surprising number of runs scored by this year's team to-date is a reflection of that. Until Hall can raise his OBP to a more respectable level, he isn't going to fit into any spot in the lineup as well as Counsell fits in the # 2 spot.

 

An interesting aside, the Brewers are actually 2-6 thusfar in Bill Hall's starts. While I'm not going to fall into any sort of post-hoc, ergo propter hoc fallacy (my into-to-Macroeconomics prof would be pleased to see me drop that term years later. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif ), it caught me a bit off guard when I went through the game logs. It bears watching, but that's about it. (What can I say, I had to look?)

[mikerollins]

Question for all the Bill Hall supporters??

 

What are you basing the fact that he is light years better than Counsell offensively on? The fact that he had a solid spring (22 games) and a walk off homerun in April?

 

If you look at his numbers they are less that promising.

 

He hit .264 in his minor league career. (581 games, 2160 ABs) He struck out 523 times to just 121 walks. He had a .388 slugging %.

 

 

 

In 2002 with Indy he batted .228 over 354 AB's with an OPS of 573.

 

In 2001 with Huntsville he batted .256 in 160 AB's (OPS was not a stat yet).

 

In 2003 he was pretty respectabe at Indy hitting .282 in 354 AB's. (OPS of 756).

 

I'm not saying he doesn't warrant a look, but I dont think over the course of a season he would put up numbers that much better than Craig Counsell. And Counsell's defense puts Billy to shame.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I don't think Hall's 2002 numbers in a league that he was one of the youngest players has much relevance to what he's doing now. It's pretty obvious that he's improved leaps and bounds over what he did 2 years ago.

 

The SLG% MAY be misleading in that he's just reaching the age where guys start to increase their power numbers, which would be borne out by last September and this spring.

 

IF Hall were to start taking a walk now and then, and even raised his OBP to .310, there would be NO defending keeping Counsell in the lineup.

 

Right now the choices are a guy who

 

Can't SLG .300

 

or the other guy who can't reach

 

.300 OBP

 

Given that there's only a .50 point difference in their OBP, and almost .200 point difference in their slugging, I'd say that's what it's based on. Call it a hunch.

[endaround]

There is no reason to expect Counsell to return to his career numbers. He is on the downside and has been since 2001.

 

Counsell in 2003:

.234 .328 .304 .632

 

Counsell in 2004:

.209 .321 .286 .607

 

Councell is pretty much performing at his new level. You may expect a slughtly higher BA, but that is about it. If Robert is so inclined he could provide BP's PECOTA for Counsell, my guess it that his performance is right in line.

 

It was near impossible for Melvin not improve on Clayton from last year, but he did his best to find a way not to.

[RobertR]

Here's why I think Counsell's numbers this year aren't what should be expected from him:

 

2001 Age 31 .275/.359/.362

2002 Age 32 .282/.348/.351

2003 Age 33 .234/.328/.304

2004 Age 34 .209/.321/.286 (to date)

 

Counsell's OBP and SLG have been in a steady decline over the last few and most projections for this year had him as a .600 to .650 OPS player, more or less. Baseball Prospectus had him as a .248/.329/.331 player with a significant chance of being worse than that. Given his age, he's really not underperforming his projections by much.

 

I think everyone agrees that they'd like to see Bill Hall take a walk or two. Heck, I really don't have a problem with Yost giving Counsell the majority of the playing time. But, I do think Hall should get at least 1 start in just about every series, at least 2 a week, instead of Yost bending over backwards for Counsell. Counsell hasn't been good enough to be handed a starting position for a couple of years now, and nothing he's done this year is inconsistent with that.

 

Robert

[danzig6767]

Until Hall can raise his OBP to a more respectable level, he isn't going to fit into any spot in the lineup as well as Counsell fits in the # 2 spot.

 

Why is either Ginter/Spivey batting in the 2 spot and Hall batting 7th/8th a worse lineup than Craig hitting in the 2 hole??Both Ginter/Spivey get on base better than Counsell does and a fly swatter has more power than Counsell.Then at the bottom of the order you have Hall and his overall superior offensive skills in the lineup vs Counsell's.

 

The difference between on offense Counsell and Hall certainly isn't enough to have a big effect on the teams record.Plus i agree Counsell is probably the better defender right now,so any gain at the plate gets washed out in the field.

 

In the end the way i see it Hall is young Counsell is old.So i'd play the younger player more than the older one given we already know Craig's ceiling,it's the floor.Anyway you slice it a sub .650 OPS hitter is a BAD hitter,his age would be the final nail in the coffin for me.

[MassBrew]

Then, at the trading deadline in 2002, the Brewers were unable to give Hernandez away for a prospect

 

BJK, it's now known that Dean Taylor had a deal in place with Cincinati for a young RHP named Jose Acevedo, who looks promising in the Reds' rotation. When Wendy learned she'd have to eat a good portion of Jose K's contract for the remainder of the miserable 2002 summer, the deal was nixed.

 

I'd trade Bill Hall for Jose Acevedo now, too...

[SoCalBrewfan]

Current eqa from baseballprospectus...please note that this metric puts OBP and SLG in their proper relation:

 

hall .250

counsell .223

 

Counsell's number looks to be exactly replacement level...Hall's is just over the major league average for all shortstops (.249)...he would be almost 4 runs above replacement level if you project his current rate stats to this portion of the season...something like a 20 run difference over the season?

 

You can repeatedly insist that Counsell's OBP is better...and it's true, but that's simply not the most relevant measure of offensive value.

 

Counsell's offense is probably a bit worse than what I would have projected, but he's also in the phase of his career where steep declines are common.

[SoCalBrewfan]

If you don't trust eqa, use Al's favorite tool...OXS times PA. Currently Counsell's OXS is...wait for it...0.092, while Hall is 0.131. Over Counsell's 110 or so PA, that's about a four run difference. That's true even with that low OBP from Hall.

[bucksbeat]

- Brewerfan rookie, bucksbeat

 

If we're not, then we'd better get out of the way of the other 29 teams who are.

 

Come on Geno, that isn't how I meant it. I just can't understand why we are letting a 25 year old in Hall rot on the bench in favor of 33 year old Counsell. Like previously stated we could easily stick Ginter/Spivey in the #2 hole and still get more production than Counsell can offer.

 

We need to get our young guys more at-bats for potential trade value in the future. We have to admit the fact that 3/4s of the infield will be filled by Minor League talent in the future, not what we currently have.

 

As for the Jose Hernandez ceiling for Hall. I think the closest thing to Jose Hernandez on this team is Wes Helms.

 

Here's an idea, let's trade all of our young players for players in their 30's because they have a higher OBP.