06/19/2004 - Brewers (Obermueller) vs. Twins (Radke)

[MassBrew]

Welcome to Ober-mueller Park tonight, where the Brewers are in third place in the wild card chase, only a game and a half behind both the Cubs and Reds, and even in the wild card chase loss column, pending this afternoon's Cubs-A's matchup.

 

Within the next ten days, at some point I'm sure we'll be able to type something like:

 

As of today, June __, the Brewers would be in the playoffs if the season ended this morning.

 

And won't that be sweet...

 

MLB.com:

 

milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com...;fext=.jsp

[tyguy20204]

I'm looking foward to watching Mauer tonight.

[brettac1]

Watching him go 0-4, right tyguy? Actually, he's one of the reasons I'm going to tomorrow's game - the only other game I've been at so far this year was Sheets' 18 K game v. Atl. I live about 4 hours away, so I only make it to 8-10 games a year.

[MassBrew]

Cubs score two in the ninth to beat the A's 4-3 http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif

 

Billy Beane, what are you thinking about that bullpen? OMG!

[batman]

Chad Bradford couldn't do the job after a nice save yesterday.

 

CHICAGO CUBS 9TH

-C Bradford relieved M Mulder.

-Bottom of the 9th inning

-R Martinez struck out looking.

-T Hollandsworth hit for K Farnsworth.

-T Hollandsworth reached on infield single to second.

-T Walker hit for M Grudzielanek.

-T Walker singled to right, T Hollandsworth to second.

-M Barrett doubled to deep right, T Hollandsworth and T Walker scored.

 

I didn't see it, but a bit of bad luck perhaps with the infield single? Regardless, Billy Beane needs to do something about his repulsively poor pen... and fast.

 

Mark Mulder out-dueled Mark Prior, too. What a waste!

 

Freaking Cubs.

 

~Bill

[brettac1]

Maybe relief pitchers aren't quite as disposable as Billy thinks they are, he better watch it or his "I'm a genius" hat might fly off his head in the windy city.

[batman]

Maybe relief pitchers aren't quite as disposable as Billy thinks they are, he better watch it or his "I'm a genius" hat might fly off his head in the windy city.

 

That's just childish. And it's not even mildly true.

 

1> Billy doesn't proclaim himself to be a genius. Other people do that for him. I'm fairly sure he's never owned nor worn an "I'm A Genius" hat. Why the ad hominem attack?

 

2> Billy never said that relief pitchers were disposable. His contention is much more nuanced, which apparently you are unable to grasp. The argument that Billy has advanced is that closers are not good investments because they are wildly overpriced. He has also argued that one can develop relief pitchers fairly easily... lots of failed starters have become solid relievers, like Eric Gagne for example, or Dan Kolb. The related argument which you decided to parody is that one should "sell high" with closers... since they are overvalued, you can get a lot in return.

 

3> You can't argue with his track record of developing closers. He turned Billy Koch into Keith Foulke and both Foulke and Isringhausen into draft picks, all for almost nothing. The Arthur Rhodes decision has been an abysmal failure thus far... but it doesn't disprove the utility of what Billy has done in the past.

 

4> Chad Bradford is a good relief pitcher who was acquired for almost nothing. He's been struggling a bit this year but is still better than average according to BP's Adjusted Runs Prevented stat. Justin Duchscherer has been very good, too, and he is a short, soft-tossing right-hander that the A's developed themselves.

 

5> For all the A's pen has been criticized, and rightly so, they are -3.2 in ARP. The Brewers, by contrast, are +4.7. That's a difference of 7.9 runs so far. How many games is that worth? By the numbers alone, probably just one. But obviously, the blown saves have shown that the poor performances have come at the most inopportune times. I think the problem is that their relievers are being used inefficiently, not just that their relievers are bad.

 

Are the struggles on Billy? Yeah... I think so. He gambled with Rhodes and made a poor decision. He has relied on some pretty not-so-good relief pitchers like Jim Mecir in crucial situations. But given his budget, don't you think that maybe he thought that other needs were more pressing? How 'bout the A's offense this year? How 'bout Mark Redman? That's certainly a gamble that has payed off.

 

Before you jump on the "Billy is an idiot, Tracy Ringolsby told me" bandwagon, ask yourself this... what is the A's record? What is their payroll? Wouldn't you like it if your team was the A's right about now?

 

Sorry for the non-game-related tangent, but I can't stand the ad hominem bashing of Billy Beane. You can disagree with him without resorting to the lame, unwarranted personal attacks. You can disagree with his philosophy, too. But at least make some arguments, mkay?

 

~Bill

[tyguy20204]

Also on a tangent - I thought Moneyball was horribly written. Perhaps the reason Billy Beane is criticized is because Michael Lewis portrayed him as being infallible. The author really irks me, probably due to his childish manner and undeserved writing acclaim. I caught an interview of his where he became irate and called someone a midget.

 

batman, I have yet to see this unfair criticizing of Billy Beane that occurs ad hominen. Please point it out, because all I see is an offhand comment about him.

[brettac1]

Whoa, it was a joke. I read Moneyball, and I'm reading it again. I never said he wore the I'm a genius hat, I was kidding because that is basically what he has been crowned as. Bill James created this, now Billy essentially gets all the credit for it, which I don't really like. Nonetheless, it was not an attack on Billy Beane.

[molitor fan]

First of all, calling someone childish on the same day Toby calls the two guys we got in the Expo trade "dinks" strikes me as misplaced aggression.

 

Secondly, I do not see how anyone could read Moneyball, and not come up with the description of Beane that Brett was referring to.

[batman]

batman, I have yet to see this unfair criticizing of Billy Beane that occurs ad hominen. Please point it out, because all I see is an offhand comment about him.

 

An off-hand comment that criticizes Billy personally is an ad hominen (or hominem) argument. It's one thing to make an argument that Beane's philosophy about relief pitchers is wrong, but it is quite another to insult him without making an argument. That's what brettac1 did... and it's something that happens all the time, and it's irritating.

 

Whoa, it was a joke. I read Moneyball, and I'm reading it again. I never said he wore the I'm a genius hat, I was kidding because that is basically what he has been crowned as. Bill James created this, now Billy essentially gets all the credit for it, which I don't really like. Nonetheless, it was not an attack on Billy Beane.

 

It's one thing if you're joking... add a smiley next time. If that's the case, cool. But you *did* say he wore an "I'm A Genius" hat. Sure, that's a joke... but it unnecessarily personalizes a dispute about baseball praxis.

 

First of all, calling someone childish on the same day Toby calls the two guys we got in the Expo trade "dinks" strikes me as misplaced aggression.

 

I didn't mean to be aggressive... I apologize to brettac if he was/is offended. I was just trying to refute the ad hominem attack with some factual arguments.

 

Secondly, I do not see how anyone could read Moneyball, and not come up with the description of Beane that Brett was referring to.

 

I don't think it's fair to call him arrogant or snobbish or whatever else comes to mind. He's a complex person, just like everyone else, and calling him arrogant is unnecessarily simplifying what was, in Moneyball, a very nuanced character.

 

When people take issue with something Billy Beane does, they tend to take issue with Billy Beane the person. I'm sure the reasons for this are diverse, but in any case it is unnecessary and counterproductive. If you have a problem with something Billy Beane says or does, then make arguments to refute that something. If you don't like how he handles his bullpen, then make arguments. The whole "haha... Billy isn't such a genius *now*, is he?" trend is just dumb.

 

~Bill

[batman]

Here are the lineups.

 MINNESOTA AT MILWAUKEE -- LINEUPS MINNESOTA MILWAUKEE AVG HR RBI AVG HR RBI Cristian Guzman SS .280 2 18 Scott Podsednik CF .258 8 23 Doug Mientkiewicz 1B .250 3 18 Junior Spivey 2B .282 4 22 Lew Ford LF .317 9 36 Geoff Jenkins LF .258 9 40 Corey Koskie 3B .247 11 29 Lyle Overbay 1B .342 7 49 Torii Hunter CF .263 9 29 Jeff Liefer RF .222 0 0 Jacque Jones RF .253 12 38 Bill Hall 3B .259 5 26 Joe Mauer C .293 2 7 Gary Bennett C .213 1 6 Luis Rivas 2B .286 3 16 Craig Counsell SS .250 1 11 Brad Radke RHP .000 0 0 Wes Obermueller RHP .313 0 4 (4-3, 3.20) (3-2, 6.49) 

EDIT: Oops... ezCode mistake.

 

No Ginter, Yes Hall, No Grieve, Yes Liefer, No Moeller, Yes Bennett.

,

It will be cool to see Joe Mauer tonight ... otherwise bidness as usual for the Twins.

 

~Bill

[danzig6767]

My view on closers or high priced relievers in general is,what kind of team is it and what sort of payroll is available to them.Closers may very well be overvalued,but if i'm a legit contender i sure wouldnt want to go into a season with an unreliable one.Playoff berths are often decided by anywhere from 1-5 games,equal teams with unequal closers can decide which team stays home.

 

When your a contender,but have a lower payroll then it can get tricky.With a say 35-50 million dollar payroll,having a 7-9 million dollar a year closer might not be a wise investment.If your not a contender,having a high priced closer seems silly to me.

 

I think you saw Theo change his tune on closers after their experiment semi-backfired on them last year.He though is blessed with a huge payroll,fitting Foulke into that payroll wasnt much of a problem.Beane i'm sure would have loved to keep Foulke,he saw how valuable he was last year.He's a Red Sox now because Theo has money and Beane doesn't,not much more to it than that.It's MLB's economic system at work.

[batman]

I agree with you 100% danzig, and you just upped the intellectual level of this discussion about 300%. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Kudos.

 

~Bill

[colbyjack]

That's some serious & unecessary Beane-defending there batman. I think everyone would recognize the job he has done in Oakland. I do think his legacy is overblown, but I don't think anyone came close to making the Billy is an idiot, Tracy Ringolsby told me" leap.

 

And I don't care what the A's bullpen's ARP, ERA or whatever stat you want to throw out there, the blown saves are enough to tell you that they need help. I don't have a doubt that Beane will do something, but for the sake of his ballclub, sooner would be better than later.

[batman]

That's some serious & unecessary Beane-defending there batman. I think everyone would recognize the job he has done in Oakland. I do think his legacy is overblown, but I don't think anyone came close to making the Billy is an idiot, Tracy Ringolsby told me" leap.

 

I disagree. I have been (and am) just as critical of the A's bullpen as anyone else... this is ridiculous. My initial post included this tidbit:

 

Regardless, Billy Beane needs to do something about his repulsively poor pen... and fast.

 

Could I have been any clearer?

 

I'm *not* the one who initiated the ad hominem, "billy's 'i'm a genius hat' is going to blow off" comment. I *wasn't* defending Billy until that happened... I was *criticizing* him.

 

The whole problem here is a failure to separate Billy Beane the person from the decisions that Billy Beane makes. I am defending Billy Beane the person, but am still criticizing the bullpen decisions Billy Beane makes.

 

And the fact that people are jumping all over me for doing so is just further proof that folks don't like Billy Beane and look for every opportunity to bash him.

 

And I don't care what the A's bullpen's ARP, ERA or whatever stat you want to throw out there, the blown saves are enough to tell you that they need help. I don't have a doubt that Beane will do something, but for the sake of his ballclub, sooner would be better than later.

 

And of course, I agree with you. My point, which seemed obvious to me, was that the collection of relievers the A's have are not as bad as they might initially seem, but rather that their usage was problematic. In other words, their bad pitchers are pitching in important (save) situations. But that's not important... it was just an observation.

 

~Bill

[colbyjack]

I disagree. I have been (and am) just as critical of the A's bullpen as anyone else... this is ridiculous.

 

I never said you weren't critical of the A's bullpen. No one did.

 

And the fact that people are jumping all over me for doing so is just further proof that folks don't like Billy Beane and look for every opportunity to bash him.

 

C'mon Bill, no one is jumping all over you. Just because someone slings a comment towards Beane doesn't mean that it was a personal assault. It's like heckling, and Beane and the whole Moneyball phenomena has a lot of controversey surrounding it. You just seemed to go way out of your way to defend what Beane is doing in Oakland.

 

Normally I'd just back down & leave this be, but don't lump us in a pre-conceived group of Beane-bashers just because someone made a facetious comment.

[tomwopat]

maybe the struggles in the bullpen will press beane to upgrade that part of the team in his yearly "holy sh*t" midseason deals and those upgrades will carry them past the first round of the playoffs.

[batman]

That's totally fair Patrick. And like I said above, I didn't mean to be aggressive/offensive... like you said, it's just such a controversial issue that sometimes it's hard to tone things down, ya' know?

 

Anyway, this was a totally unnecessary tangent and I'm sorry I started it. My bad... sometimes (ok, most of the time) I'm too stubborn for my own good. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Let's talk about the game, now. Who's with me?

 

EDIT: Actually, I'm going to go eat now. But the sentiment is still there, right? Obie doesn't look very good, and Radke has been very solid this year. How 'bout some offense tonight, huh? I'll check back in later... brats await. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

~Bill

[colbyjack]

One thing's for sure, whatever Beane does is going to have to be cheap. He reportedly has little to no wiggle room with his budget, as always, and will have to be creative with whomever he adds. Dan Kolb or Luis Vizcaino may make a lot of sense for the A's just because both are relatively cheap. I'm sure someone could be added from the A's side to help balance some of that salary, and in that case, it may make a better case for the Brewers to get a legitimate prospect. Robert has suggested Mark Teahen on the trade rumors forum, which I think is a great idea.

 

Beane has never been shy about dealing prospects for proven talent, which, IMO, has always been one of his greatest strengths.

[RyDogg66]

Meanwhile, the Twins are getting their hacks in against Obermueller, 1-0 so far through 1 2/3 and 4 hits...gotta get some runs.

[colbyjack]

The Brewers seem to be swinging early in the count so far in this game. While Radke hardly walks anyone, I certainly hope that doesn't change their approach.

[panthernick]

since when does the tie not go to the runner?

[squarepusher]

I find it funny that Darron Sutton mentiones the Twins' fielding woes yesterday, and when Bill Schroeder sees one good play today he raves about how great the Twins' defense is.

 

In reality, the Twins are 21 out of 30 in fielding percentage.

[colbyjack]

Haven't the Twins had really good defense the past couple of years? I know I have been impressed watching them when I have a chance in the past, including the playoffs. They don't seem to beat themselves very often.