Mark Rogers' Surgery

[SenatorShriv]

Jack Z. and the Brewers seem to rank overall "athleticism" very high when they are considering draft picks. There have been a couple of examples where this has paid off on the offensive side, but are there good examples of where this has beneficial for pitchers? I think that Rogers was picked to some degree because of his overall athleticism.

 

I'm curious about the opinion of others out there in Brewer's Nation... How much do you think this philosophy played into the selection of Rogers and what are your feelings on placing a high regard to athleticism as an overall philosophy?

[brewmann04]

I know drafting any Pitcher comes with a certain concern however think the Brewers must do a better job and scout these HS kids. I have a belief that maybe if they are going to draft a Pitcher in early round 1 then look hard at the college kids

[colbyjack]

As already discussed on the MLB forum, a new story in the MJS that talks about Rogers having surgery. This story has gone from the surgery should be minor and they expect Rogers to pitch in 2007 to it seems likely he will miss all of 2007. I'm guessing that second opinion the first story talked about didn't go as well as hoped.

 

Not good. Please Brewers, learn your lesson from this one.

 

www.jsonline.com/story/in...?id=543258

 

Rogers faces surgery

 

Assistant general manager Gord Ash said right-hander Mark Rogers is headed for shoulder surgery after getting a second opinion and a new set of tests. Rogers was the Brewers' first-round draft pick in 2004 and pitched last season at Class A Brevard County.

"In all likelihood, he will be a surgical candidate," Ash said. "There appears to be no value to conservative treatment at this point."

 

Ash said Rogers' surgery probably will be in early January. He is expected to miss most if not all of the 2007 season.

[PeaveyFury]

This story has gone from the surgery should be minor and they expect Rogers to pitch in 2007 to it seems likely he will miss all of 2007. I'm guessing that second opinion the first story talked about didn't go as well as hoped.

 

I'm definitely not shocked, and I think most of us were pretty much of the opinion that if he did have shoulder surgery, that he'd be missing the 2007 season, despite what Gord said in the first article.

 

Beyond that, hopefully Mark bounces back and has some sort of career ala Parra, but the odds don't look good right now.

[pogokat]

I really like mark Rogers, but this kinda kills it...Ya know Mike Jones went through the same stuff, but he at least had success as high as AA...Mark really hasnt had any...

 

I know the bandwagon wants to quit drafting High school pitchers---I'm not quite there yet---because i really want to see one of these guys work out...I guess I just think trades are the way to go with pitching...the brewers have the hardest time developing pitchers, and honestly, I'm sick of it...

 

Look forward to me heavily promoting Chuck Fermaint, Lorenzo Cain, and Cole Gillespie in the future..

[RobertR]

I'm still rooting for Carlos Villanueva, Yovanni Gallardo, and Will Inman, among others.

 

I've never been a fan of Rogers or Jones. Yeah, they throw hard, but were very unpolished. I've never been convinced that their upside was that much higher than some of the players selected in the same general area of the draft with a lot less risk. There's no such thing as a safe pitching draft pick, but the Brewers certainly didn't avoid risk with those picks and I'm unconvinced that there was much extra reward for those two. Especially given how long it takes to develop HS pitchers in comparison to the Brewers window of opportunity.

 

I really hope the Brewers reconsider their strategy in the future. At least a bit. And they really need to go over what they're looking for when drafting High Schoolers since it's not working very well.

 

Robert

[colbyjack]

I'm definitely not shocked, and I think most of us were pretty much of the opinion that if he did have shoulder surgery, that he'd be missing the 2007 season, despite what Gord said in the first article.

 

I'm not shocked either, I'm just pointing out that it sounds as though the injury is a lot worse that what was originally suspected.

 

I know the bandwagon wants to quit drafting High school pitchers---I'm not quite there yet---because i really want to see one of these guys work out...I guess I just think trades are the way to go with pitching...the brewers have the hardest time developing pitchers, and honestly, I'm sick of it...

 

I'm not opposed to drafting high school pitchers, but I am pretty close to being opposed to them in the first round. As noted in a different thread regarding Jeremy Jeffress, I didn't oppose that pick because his value was greater than the spot he was selected, meaning he was expected to be taken earlier. Rogers and Jones were taken pretty much as high as they were going to, particularly Rogers.

 

I agree though that trades seem to be the way to go, and it is how Melvin has acquired Capuano, Bush, Ohka and even Villanueva, and hopefully Vargas can follow suit.

 

I really hope the Brewers reconsider their strategy in the future. At least a bit. And they really need to go over what they're looking for when drafting High Schoolers since it's not working very well.

 

Well stated, as always Robert. I've mentioned endless times before that the Brewers need to start evaluating one's ability to pitch if they are going to take such a risk with hard throwers. Guys like Gallardo and Inman, who did have a reputation of knowing how to pitch coming out of high school, have progressed so much more quickly, which really shouldn't be that big of a surprise.

[biedergb]

Rogers and Jones were taken pretty much as high as they were going to

 

I thought Jones was regarded as the top prep pitcher that year. I know we took him high (we had the ? 7th pick), so it's not like he "fell", but he was considered a top 5 pick in BA that year if I recall correctly.

 

Also, on Rogers, I think it's interesting that one aspect that was suggested draft day (most likely by a poster here, but it could have come from the team) was that as a New Englander he had less wear and tear on his arm, as opposed to Bailey, and therefore was less of an injury risk.

 

Finally, with guys like Rogers, Jones, etc. it seems like we were going for home runs in the first round, and then took some savvy (?safer) picks later (Gallardo, Inman, Hardy). I guess it's better than the 90's with "safe" 1st rounders, and reaches in the later rounds, were we struck out on all counts.

[colbyjack]

Jones was ranked the top prep player entering the 2001 draft season, but dropped that spring when his velocity dipped and he didn't show much of a breaking ball. I also seem to remember him having some tendonitis in his throwing arm or something like that, but I could be way off. It probably wasn't fair of me to lump Jones with Rogers as far as being taken as early as they would have been, as there were some pre-draft rumors that Jones could have gone in the 8-10 range (I believe the Brewers drafted 11th or 12th that year).

 

I'm probably still bitter that the Brewers didn't take Casey Kotchman because I felt there was no way in Hades that Kotchman would fall that far. Jones was a top 5 guy entering the spring, but not on draft day. Gavin Floyd passed him up as the best prep pitching prospect about mid-spring.

 

And yes, the Brewers did note that they liked Rogers because his arm was relatively fresh.

 

In defense of the Brewers scouting department, they have always like tools early and often in the draft. Their philosophy is to take the best player available, and they clearly love themselves some tools. When it comes to tools, few players compared with Rogers, who easily threw in the mid-90s and had (has) a pretty wicked breaking ball. The delivery wasn't the best, but that is something everyone always believes they can correct. His athleticism was also off the charts, as noted, as he was a multiple-sport star in high school, with some varying reports of just how good he was in hockey (and soccer).

 

I have seen it many times where talent overcomes everything else, and as the saying goes, you can't teach things like throwing a upper-90s fastball or running like the wind. It's hard to project that scrappy guy that just competes his tail off, but I don't think anyone is suggesting that the Brewers start selecting that scrappy guy. I think what people are suggesting that they weigh projection versus risk, particularly when you rely so heavily on building your entire organization, including the big-league club, through the draft and drop $2-$2.5 million on these early draft picks. I can't fault the Brewers too much for taking Rogers over Bailey, despite Bailey being ranked better by most scouting publications, since it was reported that many teams had Rogers higher than Bailey on their draft boards. I can fault them for taking Rogers over Sowers. As I noted above, while Sowers didn't have the prototypical arsenal that defines your usual staff ace, he got batters out like staff aces do.

 

Barry Zito is a good example of a team reaching to find a pitcher they felt could be successful at the highest level (and taking Sowers 5th overall in '04 wouldn't have even been a reach). I'm sure if you ask the A's they would admit they had no clue Zito would be as good as he was, but I know they were pretty confident he would be a pretty good big-league pitcher.

 

That's what I want the Brewers to do with their first-round pick, should they choose to take a pitcher. Find the guy that can pitch, the guy that can pitch even when he doesn't have his best stuff and the guy that has relatively low injury risk. I really don't care if that guy if from college or high school, but college guys obviously have gotten through a few extra key "injury nexus" years, although the college draftees are far from prone to injuries.

[RobertR]

I tend to agree that the ability to "pitch" might be what Brewers scouting is overlooking.

 

Call it a hunch, and I have no statistics to back it up, but it certainly seems to me that the guys who struggled with command and throwing strikes seemed to burn out quickly without even reaching MLB or just made token appearances. The logic seems to me to be 1) pitchers with poor control get into trouble through walks and mistakes, 2) young pitchers tend to compensate in tough situations by trying to throw harder, 3) trying to throw harder often leads to messed up mechanics with a lot of stress, and 4) messed up mechanics and high stress deliveries lead to injuries.

 

That's my theory. It probably doesn't completely explain Jeff D'Amico (who could throw strikes), but then he had a better career than 90+% of Brewer high school drafted pitchers. It seems to fit in the cases of Gold, Neugebauer, Jones, and Rogers though, to name a few notable examples. Awful mechanics, in the case of Peterson, and overwork, in the case of Eldred, were certainly other factors.

 

I wonder if WHIP in the minors perhaps correlates to injuries. It seems to me that high WHIP with a High K/9 rate pitchers would be at the most risk.

 

Robert

[Awild102]

The real question regarding the Rogers as the #1 pick is WHY didn't Jack Z pick Homer Bailey?

[Awild102]

From the JS Online article:

Quote:

---

Nevertheless, it follows a disturbing trend that has hindered efforts to develop starting pitchers from within the farm system. Right-hander Mike Jones and left-hander Manny Parra, who were expected to be in the majors by now, were set back by surgeries and remain on the comeback trail. Another prospect, Chris Saenz, was dropped from the organization after surgery.

---

 

Are the Brewers mishandling their pitching prospects? Do other organizations have this much trouble developing pitching prospects? What can be done to prevent these types of injuries to our developing young arms?

[Thunnis]

what can be done to prevent these injuries? How about go out on a limb and don't try to fix what ain't broke! At least until your track record of competitive play-off seasons tell you that your doing the right thing.

[Team Canada]

don't try to fix what ain't broke! At least until your track record of competitive play-off seasons tell you that your doing the right thing.

 

But I think the whole point is that in the Brewers opinion, it WAS broke and would lead to serious long-term problems. Is there any evidence that changing his motion is directly what led to this, or was it prexisting anyway?

[Thunnis]

You couldn't have said it any better "In the Brewers opinion" and that's my point exactly. They take a kid with absolutely no shoulder problems and half way thru a rookie season proceed to fix him. The kid having a ton of patience does what is ASKED of him for 2 1/2 seasons and currently has a bump in the road. Perhaps they need to reavaluate how they fix mechanics all the way to the top. It would seem that there has been problems all the way to the MLB mound.

[greeg35]

Quote:

---

Perhaps they need to reavaluate how they fix mechanics all the way to the top.

---

 

Or they could not take pitchers in the first round that need major mechanical overhauls.

[Never Outhustled]

Perhaps they need to reavaluate how they fix mechanics all the way to the top.

 

If Mark Rogers wasn't so resistent to change and would simply realize his mechanics were terrible, he might not have these shoulder issues. Theres not a pro scout out there who thought Rogers mechanics were right. Why would someone ask the Brewers to let Rogers become the next Kerry Wood, a complete waste of talent? Rogers was only willing to meet the team half way on his mechanical changes, so he was still throwing with bad mechanics.

 

I got the impression that the Brewers thought they were getting an extremely coachable, competitive player when they drafted Rogers. Knowing what the Brewers know now about his stuberness, I'm sure they'd love a re-do.

[greeg35]

Quote:

---

Theres not a pro scout out there who thought Rogers mechanics were right. Why would someone ask the Brewers to let Rogers become the next Kerry Wood, a complete waste of talent?

---

 

The real question, again, is why the heck did we draft him in the 1st round if no pro scouts thought his mechanics were right? Let another team sort out his mechanics, or take him in a less costly/risky slot.

[Thunnis]

perhaps it's because all the "pro scouts" are on this site and the poor working sods are in the field:-)

[RobertR]

I tend to think there's a lot of hubris among pitching coaches that they can fix everybody. It's not alone to the Brewers, Rick Peterson apparently thought he could fix Victor Zambrano in 10 minutes. How'd that trade work out for the Mets?

 

Granted, there are success stories. They just don't seem to involve the Brewers. And, perhaps, placing a higher priority on pitchers' mechanics and their ability to throw strikes is a correction that needs to be made to their evaluation process. I don't expect the Brewers never to draft a High School pitcher high in the first round again, but I do expect them to learn from their mistakes and make better choices.

 

Robert

[brewmann04]

Hopefully they will do a better job at scouting and drafting HD pitchers

[Katuluu]

If Mark Rogers wasn't so resistent to change and would simply realize his mechanics were terrible, he might not have these shoulder issues.

 

I'm fairly certain none of us know how resistant to change, if he was at all, Rogers was to his new delivery. Sometimes it's just a matter of it being a hard task, that takes time to get correct and fine tune. I feel pretty confident that Mark being taught that he needs to increase his stride, plus adjust his style of pitching, as well as focusing strictly on developing his weaker pitches was a pretty full plate for an 18 year old kid. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibilities that the Brewers might have been trying to cover so much material that details were lost and that might have had something to do with his eventual shoulder problem.

[Team Canada]

You couldn't have said it any better "In the Brewers opinion" and that's my point exactly. They take a kid with absolutely no shoulder problems and half way thru a rookie season proceed to fix him.

 

I don't think the concern was that he would immediately have shoulder problems, but rather that pitchers who drastically throw across their body like Mark did/does, are in serious danger of having problems further down the road. In the Brewers' opinion (and I would imagine most other clubs), what happens in the first 1-2 years is meaningless, they want someone whose arm is still attached to his body 5-7 years down the road.

 

Perhaps no problems would ever have surfaced, we'll obviously never know.

 

It's a shame that Mark's facing the situation he is now, and we certainly wish him a very speedy and successful recovery.

[Never Outhustled]

I'm fairly certain none of us know how resistant to change, if he was at all, Rogers was to his new delivery.

 

Sure, unless we read Mark's weekly diary he wrote last year, or listen to the things Thunnis has said, who is an insider, or read the countless other articles written about Rogers.

[colbyjack]

I think X ellence's point has some merit, particularly based on the comments from Gord Ash, who mentioned that the Brewers tinkering of Rogers' delivery may have played a part of his shoulder injury.

 

Anyway, a nice picture of Rogers is on BA's homepage this evening:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/mrogers06428309jh.jpg