06/26 - Brewers (Franklin) @ Cubs (Prior)

[GumbyLives]

That's a best-case-scenario outlook, and it assumes:

 

- The NL Central will remain tight next year

 

What's to suggest it won't. The Cubs have good pitching that will get better, but Alou and Sosa are a year older. The Cardinals have pitching problems and no talent on the horizon in AAA to help them out. The Cardinal also have a lotta cash dumped into position players and have deep pockets, but I don't see them spending big bucks on any free agents this year. The Reds have little pitching or money to spend on any. The Astro's also have a lot of cash in position talent and no cash to spend on pitching, their weak link.

 

2 decent starting pitchers, which the Brewers could afford, makes this team .500. Any team at .500 in this division on August 1 is still in it. Why throw away 4 years waiting for the guys in AA to become competitive? Those guys might be here in 05, but you know it will be at LEAST 2 years after that before they're good enough to win. The NL central doesn't have any locks. It's possible to take a team from 70 to 87 wins. That might be enough to win this division this year and next.

 

I don't expect them to sign Millwood, but is too damn much to ask for a couple guys like Ponson, Milton, Batista, or Pavano? Add a decent RF'er and they still have a payroll in the mid 40's. It's stupid to concede this division, it can be had with a few smart aquisitions.

[squarepusher]

The problem here, Gumby, is you're only responding to 1 out of 4 of my points, but i'll indulge....

 

The Cards have a stud pitcher in Danny Haren, who's made his way up to AAA. They have another stud in Jimmy Journell in AAA. I think it's only a matter of time before St. Louis separates themselves from the pack a bit.

 

I think Cinci will get worse, and Pittsburgh will stay sub-par, making for a more polarized division. Chicago and Houston are the two wildcards here, and their success will depend on how their young pitching pans out.

 

[ Why throw away 4 years waiting for the guys in AA to become competitive? ]

 

Who said anything about 4 years? 2005 is only a year and a half away. I'd assume the team would spend money at the beginning of 2005 to supplement their youngsters... Having a few quality players around to show them the ropes would probably be a wise idea.

[GumbyLives]

The problem here, Gumby, is you're only responding to 1 out of 4 of my points, but i'll indulge....

 

I only responded to one because it's the most important in my mind. If the Brewers were in any other division in baseball accept the NL or AL central it would be pointless to try to make a couple acquisitions and fool yourself into thinking you can be competetive. But this division has no locks.

 

The Cardinals don't have a SP ready to help them now or they would have them in St Louis. They also have guys like Simontacchi, a step up from Q, Woody with his arm attached by a thread, and Tomko with an ERA near 6.

 

I'm excited there's some talent in AA, but if history is any indicator, half of them will wash out between Huntsville and Milwaukee. I don't see the reasoning in conceding anything in this division beyond this year.

[Dollarbill13]

I'd assume the team would spend money at the beginning of 2005 to supplement their youngsters... Having a few quality players around to show them the ropes would probably be a wise idea.

 

Definately. However, I kind of like the idea of having a decent team on the field BEFORE those guys start popping up. It would probably give us a better shot if putting a winning team on the field in 2005 regardless of whether the Huntsvillers produce much that year. I think its kind of risky coming into 2005 with an entire set of fresh faces.

[Dollarbill13]

- Players who are exceeding expectations in 1st half 2003 (Podsednik, Jenkins, Sexson, Kinney, Perez, Estrella, Kieschnick) will be around next year

 

Yes, Podsednik is exceeding expectations, but he doesn't look like a fluke to me. Doesn't really do any thing extraordinary, just keeps plugging away every day and making contributions where they can be made.

 

Jenkins is a question mark. In my mind it depends on how you see this season. Is it a fluke or are we just seeing HEALTHY Jenkins? Personally, I think its him being healthy. He put up similar numbers in 99 & 00. 2001 and 2002 were Jenkins' bad years where he was kept out by freak injuries.

 

I don't really think Sexson is exceeding expectations much this year. His OBP is about the same as last year, and about 20 points higher than 2001. Batting average is down, along with slugging and OPS.

 

Kinney isn't that much better than we expected either. His ERA is in the mid 4's with an adequate WHIP.

 

Perez & Estrella are having outstanding years, but a platoon catcher and a middle reliever don't normally make or break a ball club.

 

Pretty much everything Kieshnick does is gravy but in reality, he is good for flexibility. His ERA is probably a little worse than replacement level for a relief pitcher. He has been a good pinch hitter, but I don't know exactly how many wins he has been good for.

 

 

 

- Players acquired to play in 2004 will meet or exceed expectations

- The injury bug that has so far NOT plagued the Brewers, will stay away.

 

These are pretty much concerns for everyone. Injuries and players performing below expectations will hurt just about every team.

[FVBrewerFan]

Instead of trading Sexson or Jenkins, why not surround them with another starting pitcher or two and make a run at the World Series next year. This team is not that far away. Spend some money on a pitcher and maybe a bat in the OF and let's go after it in 2004. I'm sick of this losing attitude from the Brewers organization and fans. Don't you have to shoot for the stars eventually? I don't want to wait until the Huntsville All-Star team is in Milwaukee. Remember the last return to glory? D'Amico, Sheets, Gold, Neugabauer...it was all set.

 

I'm not saying don't build for the future, just don't count on it. Play for NOW. Win NOW. What will you say if 2006 is still a below .500 season? Don't worry...lots of talent in Beloit...Look out for the Brewers in 2011!! Enough! It's been 20 years and we got the stadium and labor deal the Brewers wanted. So no more small market excuses. Build around Pods, Jenkins, Sexson, Helms, 3 solid SP, and a good pen.

[Al the Thinking Man]

I'm not saying don't build for the future, just don't count on it. Play for NOW. Win NOW.

 

Thank you Mr. Perot. In reality, you need to decide if you are in contention and go from there. If you are a true contender, like TOR, you cannot trade away your veterans like Lidle, Stewart, Cat, etc. If you are not, like MIL, you look to get whatever you can for EY, VW, Leskanic, etc. If guys can't help you win in 2005, it makes no difference when you're a game out of 1st.

 

However, it does when you're several games under .500.

 

If you aim for 81 wins, you'll get there, and it'll be mighty hard getting much higher, as you'll probably have to make some deals to get there. Unless you get to the 90 win barrier, a game or two makes no difference.

 

For example, let's say for argument's sake the Crew is on pace to win 79 games. You feel you can reach 81 if you add another starting pitcher, which makes sense to most all of us here. So, do you trade Corey Hart for Cory Lidle (also assuming TOR falls out of the AL East race)?

 

I would not, as it is unlikely we can sign Cory after '03. Therefore, I'd win 79 games, yet have Hart in my system. I put no "special merit" on winning 81 games. But, some would do that deal so they could proudly say they ended the string of sub .500 seasons. They'd be no closer to contention, and they wouldn't have Hart in the system. They may be able to add a #1 pick if they offer Lidle arby, but that's a maybe.

 

Therefore, it is very difficult to play for now and for later. You need to know your place in the success cycle and go all out to win, given your place in it. Change the scenario to finishing with 89 wins, with no true wildcard team dominating, that might be a trade I'd consider (though, if TOR falls out of the race, it's unlikely I'd need to give a top guy like Hart, hence I digress). But, until you're in the 90 win area, you're still building.

 

As I believe someone here says in their signature, don't worry about anything but the final goal.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't know how you can look at 2004 and plan for 79 wins. Shouldn't the goal be to win the division? How many Presidents, GMs, and Managers do we have to go through before they convince themselves, then the fans that they want to make a run for it?

 

And trading Hart or Nelson for a SP is not what I'm talking about. Don't touch the core of the future, simply be a shrewd GM and get a couple more pieces of the puzzle. Pods, Kinney, Helms, Franklin, Ford, etc. etc. were not acquired by trading a player like Jenkins or future prospects. So why not trade guys like EY and Leskanic, make the right choices in FA during the off-season and make a run?!?

 

Look, this team is a .500 club right now. Take away the horrible start and they're .500 ever since. So why not be optimistic and say we're going for it in 2004? This waiting for 2006 is a sucker bet. Is that the year Melvin flips the switch and the Brewers win the Central? It doesn't work that way. This should be the LAST year we doom ourselves to failure.

[Al the Thinking Man]

Take away the horrible start and they're .500 ever since.

 

Don't fool yourself into thinking a team is better than they are. Every team, including the Yankees and Red Sox have had bad runs this year. Even DET's record isn't horrible if you remove the losing streak. They all count the same.

 

Heck, if you take away all the games we lost, we're undefeated. Pity that doesn't matter.

[tlpc4]

I don't agree with Al much, but I do here. I think we tend to overrate this team. Last year, I felt the team wasn't as bad as the record shows and this year I don't think they are as good as the record shows.

 

Their offense is better, but most of that can be attributed to having Jenkins playing at a All-Star level. The other positions are slightly better or slightly worse but overall fairly similar individualy. As a team, the offensive pieces fit much better together.

 

The big gap that the Brewers need to bridge to get to a playoff level is the pitching. Last I looked, statistically we have a below average #2, and one above average and one below average #3 starter. Most contenders have two #1 starters.

 

So in my mind he are two #1 starters from contending. So if we can acquire two #1 starters...go for it!

[tigersfanatic1]

Nice job http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I saw that game on WGN and was delighted that the Brewers won. We have a Cubs troll who comes to our forum and we let him have it!