9/21 Brewers (Obermueller) vs. DBacks (Schilling)

[gregmag]

With Hall, OBP is the question. I agree with David that we can't make too much of Hall's MLB performance, but if you look at his combined performance this year, he appears to be a 23 year-old who can hit with some authority. Guys that age do tend to develop, if they stay healthy; Pat Listach is only one extreme.

 

But Hall needs to learn patience, and that's iffy. A lot of guys can't do that, go from being hackers to having a clue about the strike zone. Hall is young enough that there's hope, but if he can't master the strike zone, he's a lot less likely to develop as a hitter.

 

I don't mind in principle the idea of moving middle IFs to corner OF positions, but we don't need to be in any hurry to do it. It's a nice luxury to have a lot of talent at the up-the-middle positions. Weeks looks like a good bet to turn into Gary Sheffield (the player, not the person). As for Hall, his ability to play CF makes him a great utility option at a minimum . . . I'd say if he develops, he probably ends up at 2B if Weeks moves, but corner OF isn't out of the question.

 

Speaking of Weeks, if his arm and athleticism are as great as everyone says, could he play 3B? Everyone is talking about OF for a move, but we may need a 3B if Hart (a) doesn't develop or (b) moves back to 1B for some reason.

 

Greg.

[gregmag]

One more thing I forgot -- Clancy, for 2004-2006 corner OF prospects, don't forget:

 

Brad Nelson (probably AA next year, perhaps moving up to AAA later in the season): as far as I can tell from the varied reports, he was at least vaguely plausible in his first year in LF. He still looks like a good bet to hit a lot.

 

Jason Belcher (presumably AA).

 

Anthony Gwynn (A+ or AA)/Steve Moss (A or A+?): Somebody is going to have to move off CF eventually. If any two of Krynzel, Gwynn, or Moss work out, and one of them flashes some power, we have a corner OF candidate.

 

D.J. Clark (AA, possible move up later).

 

Greg.

[DHonks]

I would not put Hall in the OF. I think he has the biggest upside at SS or 2b. He's doing the same thing this Sept that he did last Sept in that he's driving balls extremely well. He's not hitting .300 and probably never will. But it would seem .270 with 15-20 homers is a distinct possibility.

Ginter is also a guy that's fun to project. In roughly 350 ab's, he's got 14 homers and 43 rbi. If Hall can hold his own, we have a lineup that could hit quite a few homers at traditionally light-hitting positions. Pencil Helms for 25, Ginter 20-25 (I just love how he waits back and then pounces on it in a way similar to Pujols and Hillebrand), Hall for 15-20, etc.

The real problem--and where this post also ties in with recent comments--is with Sexson and Jenkins. Anyone with a source says the Brewers are prepared to shop Richie. Obvious targets are the Dodgers, Braves, and Dbacks. Another could be the pitching rich Giants.

So we lose Richie from the lineup, and replace him with who? Palmeiro could probably be had for under Richie's current salary slot of $5 million. Who else is there? In reality, we probably will replace him with a Matt Stairs-type of guy. I would also assume we'll move Jenkins if there is any interest from the league, but as has been stated, who wants an injury-prone player making $8.5 million when Burnitz, Sanders, etc will be available for under $4 million. So the result means that as of now--assuming Richie is gone--we'll have a lineup of something like Jenkins, Pod, and Vandy/Clark/Zocco in the OF. The IF will be Helms, Hall, Ginter, and someone like Rushford. I would love to get my hands on Cirillo for 1b, but that'd mean we'd have to find a way to have him for cheap. I say that because it seems some of the best teams the last few years (Cards, Dbacks, Giants, Angels, A's, Braves) have featured non-traditional first basemen, including several teams that converted players to 1b (Spezio, Hatteberg). It seems they prefer 1b leadership and defensive skills to raw power, and for some reason they win. Is there some correlation...I don't know.

I guess to finish on the point, I don't think we should go converting Hall or Weeks or others to OF until we see they can't play IF in the bigs.

[clancyphile]

Nelson seems legit, but he's two years away and he was hurt this year, so I'd put his ETA at 2006.

 

Gwynn looks promising as well - I'd even sitck him as a #3 hitter - if only because he raps a bunch of doubles. He's a possibility.

 

Clark's power faded away from High Desert - I'd consider him iffy right now. Worst case, he turns out like Lenny Harris - a backup OF/3B/1B.

 

Moss... I'm not sure about. I think the best option might be to use him as trade bait - see if some team needs a CF prospect or something and hopefully has a surplus at one of the positons the where Brewers need help (corner OF, catcher).

[clancyphile]

DHonks

 

You just hit on the biggest "if" the Brewers are dealing with right now.

 

Can we keep Sexson and Jenkins in the fold, and add a legit catcher to push Eddie Perex to the #2 catcher slot?

 

Aside from that, the Brewers have a few other questions, like "Will Wes Helms continue to improve"? I think I read at either the Brewers' web site or on the Journal-Sentinel online that Helms has set a goal of 30-35 bombs for 2004.

 

Hall and Ginter both strike me as legit 20-25 homer guys - I think Hall can give the Brewers production similar to what Hernandez did in 2001 and 2002 - and he'll cost $350K for the next two years.

 

Ginter's just producing at a solid clip - a .794 OPS. Hall's is only a little behind him (.78http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/glasses.gif . That's definitely better than the Clayton-EY double-play combo. Heck, one of these guys playing every day might be as good, if not better than, the Vander-Clark platoon the Crew has used in RF this year. Yeah, Vander Wal's provided an OPS of .821, but he's old and will cost more than Hall or Ginter - and he's more likely to decline. Ginter and Hall are likely to improve - Hall's only 23, Ginter is older (27), but he's been awesome as he has played every day.

 

Exactly where they play will be up in the air (it depends on who is signed, and how well JJ Hardy does in the fall and spring), but both of these players ought to be playing every day for the Brewers in 2004.

[whizkid]

Why all the interest on this board, and its not just Clancy, of taking good hitting infielders and making them poor hitting outfielders? Not just Hall and Ginter, but also Weeks.

 

Do you really think Weeks would ultimately peak as a poor hitting OF?

 

Unlike Clancy I don't have Hall inked in at high numbers or any numbers at all. He had a poor year in AAA at 22, quite young, and most gave up on him. He was up last Sept. in a desperate, ill-advised attempt to showcase the future and save someone's job and looked bad offensively and defensively. He made significant progress at Indy this year and I see a significant difference watching him this year since he's been up, offensively that is. I'm not sure what is telling everyone that this progress absolutely can't continue. I'm not saying it will, but I'm also not giving up or setting a ceiling on a young player who is still making progress.

 

What the Brewer's need next year is incremental improvement at several positions, primarily SP. I don't want any high priced free agents, but whatever reasonably priced for value acquisitions can be made I'd rather see them at SP. And I'd like to see if Hall can provide the incremental upgrade in RF. I don't like using young players as bridges at positions they're not showing growth in defensively.

[clancyphile]

whizkid

 

I see Hall as a young, cheap version of Jose Hernandez, with the ability to provide a few more steals than Hernandez. At $300-$350K a year, that's one hell of a bargain, particularly if Hall can approach Jose's 2001-2002 level of production.

 

If what I've heard about his arm is true, then he might be a decent stopgap in RF until someone else comes up. Worst case, Hall could play seven innings or so in RF, and Jason Conti could then come in as a late-inning defensive replacement.

 

And who knows what Wynegar could do for Hall over the course of a full season? Wes Helms, Scotty Podsednik, and Geoff Jenkins have seen big improvements over past performance this year. So, the OBP issue doesn't seem as big as finding Hall a position. Aside from the OBP and finding a position, there's not much one can complain about with Bill Hall. That kid has a LOT of upside.

[Al the Thinking Man]

Weeks has plenty of arm for SS or 3B, but the "smart money" seems to be he will end up at 2B or LF/RF, as his bat is far more developed than his glove.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Well, now that the "Hall to the outfield" talk has gone more towards right field, it makes a little more sense. I don't think he's got the skills to play ss next year, who knows, I could be wrong. I know that no one wants a "no hit" "all glove" shortstop, but if he's extraordinarily bad at it, he could cost far more runs than he creates over the average for a ss.

 

I'd still make every maximum effort to keep Weeks at 2nd, because if he peaks at what the experts say he might, he'll be in a class of his own. Look at it this way: Weeks could be a *above average* RFer, or an extraordinary 2nd sacker. Knowing that it's easier to find production in the corner outfield spots than 2nd base, I'd rather go that way. I still like Ginter, of course, but projecting him to *35-40* doubles and 25 HR's is jumping the gun. He has 15 doubles in over 400 plate appearances, and I don't care what kind of calculator you use, that doesn't project to any more than 25 or so for a full season.

Also......(whew) Helms can SAY he wants to hit 35 bombs next year, but it doesn't mean anything until he does it. It's nice that he's setting his goal high, but realistically it doesn't mean a thing.

[endaround]

Maybe Helms thinks the Brewers will only play home games next year...

[mothershipconnection]

Even though Hall plays a position that the organization is seemingly set with, it still makes the most sense to leave him there instead of putting him in the OF where his numbers would be sub-par. Hardy and Weeks will not be in the bigs next year, so why not keep Hall as a middle IF? If he puts up the offensive numbers some feel he's capable of, then we can simply trade him for a need once Hardy and Weeks are ready, as it seems he'd have far more value as a mediocre fielding middle IF with good offense than an average fielding OF with mediocre offense.

[clancyphile]

Hall has a very good bat - and the upside that has me convinced he ought to be found some spot in the lineup.

 

It would be nice to find a one-year solution to SS - although if JJ Hardy is phenomenally good this fall and in spring training, the Brewers ought to go with him at short.

 

Ginter probably will get second base by default until Weeks comes up. Could be as early as 2005, but Ginter's going to find himself somewhere in the Milwaukee lineup for as long as he wants to stay in Milwaukee.

 

Hall's probably the most likely to go to the outfield, and sticking him in right would probably solve two problems. He has an arm, and his defense would be a marginal improvement over Vander Wal's. His bat is a clear improvement over Brady Clark, and I'd rather have a 23-year old player with upside getting playing time instead of a guy pushing 40 who could go downhill at any time.

 

That leaves catcher as the only major hole to fill. Helms would be at third, (possibly) Hardy at short, Ginter at second, Sexson at first, and an outfield of Jenkins, Podsednik, and Hall.

 

We'd need to get a different shortstop - are there any options for short in 2004 on the free-agent market?

[colbyjack]

Gwynn looks promising as well - I'd even sitck him as a #3 hitter - if only because he raps a bunch of doubles.

 

He does?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Well DUH Colby!! You didn't know that 8 doubles in 268 PA's in low A ball calculates out to 35-40 for a whole season in the bigs?!?! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/roll.gif

 

 

Seriously, Gwynn at the very least DOES need to develop some gap to gap power, or he's just Kennard Bibbs with a famous name.

 

This reminds me of the guy last off season who said we should sign Pudge because he'd hit "his USUAL 35-40 bombs" , which actually, he's never hit 40, so......

It's nice to just throw stats out there that you'd LIKE a guy to achieve, but he's got to actually DO it before you can just state it as a fact.

[xisxisxis]

Gwynn looks promising as well - I'd even sitck him as a #3 hitter - if only because he raps a bunch of doubles.

 

He does?

 

Yes in the Clancyverse every Brewer and Brewer prospect projects better than their stats. Prince will have more HR than Babe Ruth by the time he's 30, more than Aaron by the time he's 32 and more than Bonds by the time he's 33. He'll spend the next 11 years of his career setting a record that Prince Fielder Jr may have troubles beating, unless (of course) he's drafted by the Brewers.

 

RoCo, stop letting facts interfere with your projections. Only pessimists are influenced by facts. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[clancyphile]

Tony Gwynn Jr. will probably add more power - I admit to being VERY optimistic, but that has been the case in the past with other prospects.

[DuWayne Steurer]

"..........only because he raps a bunch of doubles."

 

Tony Gwynn Jr. will probably add more power

 

Ok, there's a BIG difference between "he does" and "probably will"

 

Heck, everyone's optimistic about Gwynn's future, but at this point trying to project his spot in the order based on what he "might" do is a stretch, to say the very least.

 

If I get to "project" any numbers I'd like, I'll have the Crew winning 115 games next year, as I'll have both Jenkins and Sexson hitting 50 HR's, Helms hitting 35, Ginter hitting 25 bombs and 40 doubles (which HAS been suggested by someone) and Podsednik hitting .350 with 75 swipes. Now, REALISTICALLY, because none of them have EVER reached ANY of those marks, how can I project those numbers? I can't.

[gregmag]

I certainly agree that you can't assume a player will do something he hasn't done yet. But you also can't simply say "He hasn't done [x] yet, so we must assume he cannot do [x] until he proves otherwise." Try this: somebody makes the Brewers an offer for Gwynn next month. Wouldn't they need to make the best assessment possible of his potential to develop greater power? There's no path of least resistance; you can't assume he'll develop, but you can't assume he won't. The same principle holds if, say, you're trying to decide whether Prince Fielder's potential helps to justify trading Richie Sexson. You can't just stop the discussion by saying "Fielder hasn't hit a single major league home run, so we would be fools to trade Sexson." You have to look at predictors of hitters' development that have some value and draw the likeliest conclusions.

 

Greg.

[clancyphile]

Greg's got a good point.

 

I see Tony Gwynn Jr. turning into much the same type of hitter that Tony Gwynn Sr. was - and Tony Sr. averaged 39 doubles, 6 triples, nine homers, and 76 RBI a season. It's as reasonable an assumption as any other.

[xisxisxis]

It's as reasonable an assumption as any other.

 

Brothers/Sisters (siblings) are more closely related genetically than a parent/child. So a comparison of brothers is better than comparing a father to a son. How about those Canseco, Ripkin, Giambi, and Boone brothers? They all produce identically, right! Just because your father was a good ballplayer doesn't mean that you will be a good ballplayer, especially if your mother passed on some conterproductive genes.

[colbyjack]

I see Tony Gwynn Jr. turning into much the same type of hitter that Tony Gwynn Sr. was...It's as reasonable an assumption as any other.

 

You mean a Hall of Fame caliber hitter? Yeah, that's reasonable.

 

I'm beating myself with a stick here. How the heck is it reasonable to go from 9 extra base hits in the Midwest League in over 200 ABs to over 50 extra base hits at the big league level? That's absurd, and I really like Gwynn Jr.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Ok, I agree with everything Greg said, except that it's "reasonable" to expect Gwynn to have over 3000 career hits.

 

I say AGAIN, for everyone here. I never said Gwynn COULDN'T. But I'll quote Clancy here........

 

"if only because he raps a lot of doubles."

 

That's not saying he could, or he might, or he has the potential. That's saying he DOES. And he doesn't. Not yet anyhow. I AGREE that he very probably will develop into a good hitter with decent gap to gap power, but it's another thing altogether to spout stats that don't exist.

 

And again, "projecting" him as a 39 double 7 triple 9 homer per year guy is really expecting a whol lot. It would be great to see, and I DO think that he has the capability to put up a season like that. Assuming that he ought to though, that's another story altogether.

[lend d money]

Again, I will state he does not have the swing to be a doubles hitter. You can play him between LF and CF as he does not turn on the ball. Why? Because he doesn't stride into the ball. He lets the ball get on top of him and fights to keep it in between the lines. He fouls countless pitches off to LF. Even the Lansing manager figured that out in a short series and the Lugnuts didn't even play the Snappers in a regular season series after Tony's arrival. That is why he played a five man infield with no outfielder on the pull side during a crucial juncture of the only game played in Beloit. The "gimmick" worked and we eventually lost in extra innings. NO, he definitely cannot be counted on as a doubles hitter yet. I just went to BA for season stats. Bibbs got a double 2.6% of the time, Gwynn 3.4%. The difference is rather mimimal. I don't think any of us have visions of grandeur for Bibbs "power" numbers. Again, it appears Jr. isn't getting a pass based on bloodlines. I'm not willing to do that until I see actual signs on the field that he will be such a player.

[RobertR]

When Tony Jr. was drafted, there were a lot of comparisons to this player. I'm kind of ambivalent towards Tony Jr. He can hit for average and play defense, but the lack of power is a big concern and it's way premature to project him for any kind of significant big league career until he actually does start producing extra base hits at a significant rate.

 

Robert