04/11/04 Houston (Oswalt) @ Milwaukee (Davis)

[MassBrew]

I rain on parades.

 

I wear a pancho http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

The Cardinals lost of three of four to the Brewers in St. Louis while scoring 25 runs.

 

The Cardinals swept three games from Arizona on the road, scoring 29 runs.

 

Ipso facto, whatever.

[rluzinski]

I think our starters are garbage, and we'll be seeing Kinney, Obermueller and maybe Davis replaced before the end of the year. Like all new Brewer starters, Capuano will be left out there to learn the ropes no matter what (as he should).

 

This year will be more fun than last, since the offense will be a bit better, but the starters are just as bad this year, and the bullpen is worse.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Too early to say the starters are just as bad as last year, and to be that bad, by the way, they'd have to be REALLY bad, especially to match the putrecence of Rusch, Quevedo, Manning, and Ford (when he was in the rotation). By default, the rotation should be at least MARGINALLY better, but I certainly think the DD we saw last September was more or less an anamoly. I still think he could hold together and put up around a 4.00-4.20ish E.R.A., but I'm not going to be surprised if he falls apart and gets yanked by July, either.

[verydrunk2]

with the exception of giving up the grand slam he pretty much hung around there. Roy Oswalt had just as many baserunners with the exception that one of his pitches didn't leave the yard at the most unopportune time. I think it was just bad luck on his part for this game.

 

I do see Kinney and Obumeuller being replaced about mid June with Hendricksen and De La Rosa if they dominate AAA. That would give ample time to assess both pitcher's performances up to that point.

[clancyphile]

1/16 of an inch, and that grand slam is a double-play ball.

 

The earlier start was just trying to push Davis one inning too far. This one's bad luck, given what we've seen him produce to date.

[endaround]

I'm not sure why everyone is calling for De la Rosa to play in Milwaukee this year. First off, he needs seasoning and ther is no reason to push him up this year. Second, correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't he have only two pitches and that combined with stamina questions is why he was projected as a reliver until last year? Let him prove he can fully handle starting before he is pushed up too quickly ala Sheets.

 

Now the second question, is why do people belive we have a better offense than last year? The team looks like if it pushes it can maybe match last years output. Sexson to Overbay is a 40 run downgrade. Second is a slight upgrade. SS is a very slight upgrade. 3B is the same. Catcher is an upgrade. LF is the same. We hope CF is the same. RF may end up a downgrade or a slight upgrade.

 

As to pitching, not having Rush, Quvedo and Franklin will be a good thing so pitching will improve. But again its hope that most of them may aproach league average and Sheets maybe better than average.

[DuWayne Steurer]

1/16 of an inch, and that grand slam is a double-play ball

 

Y'know, I knew when i was listening to the game today, before I ever got home, that at least one person, and probably more, were going to chalk this up as no more than bad luck.

 

1/16 of an inch, and that grand slam is a double-play ball.

 

you could say that of just about any homer that's ever been hit in the history of major league baseball. It was a bad pitch at a terrible time to throw a bad pitch, no more, no less. It happens, and more often than not, it happens to bad or mediocre pitchers. Like I said in another thread, if we are going to let ourselves take away any negative stats that paint our players in a bad light, of course you can convince yourself that they're really good players.

 

Of course, I could take away the Brewers 94 losses last year, because they were, after all, bad luck, and say that

 

"Without those 94 losses the Brewers winning % was 100!"

 

I suppose next time Davis gets shelled it will be because the wind was blowing out, and the time after that, the tide was out, causing a shift in gravity, therefore allowing the ball to travel further, and the time after that it will be because the ball was wound too tight, and the time after that..........

 

Sigh.........

 

Davis is not a good pitcher. Up until September of last year, he was at absolute best a touch under league average. He's a soft tossing lefty who can't live in the middle of the strike zone, and left one out over the plate to a good hitter, which is something average/bad pitchers do, plain and simple.

[rluzinski]

Well, if the patient offense keeps running the opponents starters to over 100 pitches in the 6th, I think the Brewers CAN be a bit better than last year. I find it very satisfying to watch that pitch count of the opponent's starter go up and up, inning after inning. Saturday's game was a perfect example of that. Getting 3-4 innings against an opponent's bullpen can be a huge help in the quest to score runs.

[igor67]

Well I took a peak at some of those stats. It maybe too early to identify long term trends and projections, but it certainly isn't too early to let the stats confirm or deny our early impressions of what has happened.

 

1) The Crew slugging over .500 as a team. I don't think that surprises too many people we've seen quite a few HR and doubles so far plus Geoff's 2 triple masterpiece.

 

2) Brewers are posting a team .370 OBP. Again we've seen men on base constantly.

 

3) Team OPS with men on base is over .100 points higher than overall. Huh?? but they've stranded so many....

 

4) Team OPS with runners in scoring position is over .100 points lower than overall total. There we go. Except the OPS total is still well over .750

 

So what does this really mean has happened? In general the offense is playing significantly over it's head. If we Slg .500 or better I'm sure we'll hit 81 wins, but that's just not going to happen. .450 sure, but unless I'm mistaken Jenkins is the only guy who has ever Sluged better than .500 for an entire season so. Similarily a .370 OBP seems awfully high for a team total. Maybe with everyone workign the count and such it's more realistic, but I'd expect atleast some regression towards say .350?

As for the scoring position issue. This is a Clear indication of human misperception. 1st off the difference between OPS' with men on and in scoring position indicates we've hit a disproportionate number of HRs with men on 1st only and also generally hit well with a man on first. We do appear to have tailed off though when it comes to sealing the deal. But that ignores the fact that even including yesterday's bad performance we've done a solid overall job offensively as indicated by the actual OPS in that situation. More importantly it's only 80ABs! Seriously we talk about 60 being the minimum cut-off for an almost meaningful sample size for individual players with an entire team a couple of walks to load the bases twice today and a couple of grand slams and the number shoots up a 100 points or something.

 

Overall there hasn't been anything that really has changed the season long projection for the offense. We expected a high OBP team without the dramatic finishing HR. And therein lies a huge perception problem when the team loses. If your up against a team with a pretty good pitcher and you scratch out 2 runs on 3 hits he pitched well! But with the Brewers it's more likely that you eek out 4 hits but add a couple of more walks to the total. Suddenly it seems like they had an opportunity almost every inning! And that's really the key by generating more "opportunities" even if the succeed at the same rate as a higher power team they will still "fail" more. Something to keep in mind. Personally I like the excitement with guys on base all the time, especially with someone like Brooks waiting around to pinch hit, if he duplicates last years performance he could win 5-6 games himself!

[clancyphile]

igor67

 

The good news is that the team makes its opportunies. The bad news is they don't always cash in.

 

RoCoBrewfan

 

I disagree with the notion Davis is a bad pitcher. The sample size this year has been small. Arguably, Davis was pushed an inning too far by Yost against the Cards in his first start.

 

If Matt Kinney can be handed the #3 spot in the rotation, I reall y don't see where Brewers fans have room to complain about Doug Davis going out every five days, particularly after what Davis showed in 2003.

[xisxisxis]

It maybe too early to identify long term trends and projections, but it certainly isn't too early to let the stats confirm or deny our early impressions of what has happened.

 

Yes it is too early. Don't make me come to FanFest with my small sample size bat!

[DuWayne Steurer]

Clancy, I don't have a problem with Davis being in the rotation......for now. I DO have a problem with people pimping him to be something he's not based on one solid month from last year, compared to his career worth of mediocrity.

 

A career ERA + of 98 means he's just a touch below average, which I don't have a big problem with. I'm just saying that when a guy like Davis gets touched up for 6 earnies in 4+, it's not because of bad luck, it's because he's just not that good.

[clancyphile]

RoCoBrewfan

 

Well, if you want to go by ERA+ over a career, let's look at the rest of the rotation:

 

Sheets: 96

Davis: 98

Kinney: 89

Capuano: 101

Obermueller: 77

 

Matt Kinney is arguably the second-worst starter on the Crew, and considering Obermueller had an 86 ERA+ in `03, there really isn't much difference between the two of them, and Obermueller's arguably still developing since he only started pitching as a college senior.

[gregmag]

In my humble opinion, we really don't have a lot of solid information for judging the 2-5 guys in the rotation.

 

RoCo, I take the ERA plus numbers as important, but I continue to disagree that they prove Davis is obviously better than Kinney. Obviously better up 'til now? You've convinced me. But Kinney is 27 and only had about 114 big league innings before last season. Davis is 28 and had about 285. Capuano and Obermuller, of course, are just getting started. When you factor in stats with predictive value, Kinney looks better to me than Davis.

 

My bets for success, based on the limited evidence available, would run Capuano, Kinney, Davis, Obermuller. Davis has had the most time and has provided the most evidence that he'll never amount to much, but even he is still young enough to get better. Obermuller has never had good peripherals; I hope he succeeds, but I see no reason to bet on it. Capuano and Kinney can get strikeouts, and Capuano has some control to boot.

 

But the main thing is that, unlike Clancy, I think we need to keep an open mind and watch how these guys perform this year. 2004 is an audition for the privilege of trying to hold off Hendrickson, de la Rosa, and maybe Jones next year. Two of the present 2-5 guys in the rotation, at most, figure to stay in the picture. I don't see any serious basis right now for saying with any confidence who those two will be.

 

Greg.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Greg, I was more or less using the numbers to point out that Davis isn't a victim of "bad luck" when he gets hit hard, he's just not that good of a pitcher. I wasn't really bringing Kinney into the equation, but I guess there is some point in it.

 

Davis has 90+ career starts, Kinney has one seasons worth. Kinney is probably more likely to improve, while Davis MAY improve, I don't expect it.

 

I'm not unhappy with DD in our rotation this year, it's just that when he gets shelled, I understand it's because he's just not very good, last September not withstanding.

[clancyphile]

gregmag

 

I'm with you, albeit I would probably lay the odds a little differently:

 

Capuano, Davis, Obermueller, Kinney.

 

Capuano's pitched lights-out since a rough spring outing. Davis only had one bad start in `03, and his first one was okay until Yost tried to go an inning too far (after six, I'd have brought in Bennett, then Vizcaino and Kolb).

 

Capuano's got an arm injury question, but if he is back, he's gonna do a lot to make the Sexson trade worthwhile.

 

Davis, over a full season as a starter, posted a 4.45 ERA and a 101 ERA+. His 2003 aggregate was a 4.03 ERA, given that he had to spend some time in the minors first. At 28, he's had some ups and downs. But his 2002 season was marred by an ankle injury - so he has a sound arm - give him a mulligan for that, and I think he's an average pitcher. I'd have to give him a full year in the `03 rotation and see what happens. I think a 3.50-to-4.00 ERA is what we could expect.

 

Obermuller is intriguing. He's still learning to pitch to an extent, based on the fact he only started to do so as a college senior. Could he be good? Maybe. I think he's best suited as a 7th-or-8th inning reliever (think David Weathers). That's not bad.

 

Kinney's raising the most questions. Right now, he's sure not throwing any strikes (4 out of 14). He's Jamey Wright II, and I think it's time we admit that.

 

For 2005, the Crew will have Henrickson and de la Rosa ready (hopefully). Maybe Jones or Liriano will also make things interesting, but I think the 2005 rotation (barring trades or injury) will be: Sheets, Capuano, Davis, Hendrickson, de la Rosa.

 

RoCoBrewfan

 

I would venture that Doug Davis may have had problems in the AL. His 2002 season was 10 starts with an ankle injury in the mix. His 2000 season was bouncing between the bullpen and rotation.

 

He had a great run in August and September. Do I think he's going to dominate like that? No. Do I think he could be a solid #3 starter in the NL with a 3.50 to 4.00 ERA as he adjusts to the hitters and learns their tendencies? I think it is very possible. I have to admit I feel better with Davis pitching than Matt Kinney.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Like I said Clancy, I don't have a problem with Davis......yet, same with Kinney, same with Oby.

 

I myself have predicted that Davis could put up an ERA of around 4.20 or so, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he gets knocked around. I pretty much feel that way about our entire rotation from 2-5.

[clancyphile]

Davis will occasionally get knocked around. As I said, I see him as a 3 starter behind Sheets and Capuano this year. Beyond that: he's a 4 or 5 starter on the teams in 2006 and beyond. Now, do the Brewers retain Davis, or let him go?

 

Two things will decide that, I believe: First is how well de la Rosa performs in the rotation. He may have to head to the bullpen. Second, how many of the Jones/Parra/Matt Ford trio assert themselves as solid starters will also enter into this.

 

A lot of unknowns, but as I see it, if Sheets, Capauno and Davis are solid, only TWO of the Hendrickson/de la Rosa/Jones/Parra/Matt Ford would need to emerge as average starters to fill out the rotation.

 

That's before the Crew trades Spivey/Counsell/Helms/Grieve/etc. for pitching prospects. Can you imagine what those might add to the mix?