7/6/05 Brewers (Ohka) @ Marlins (Burnett) 6pm CST

[Brian the Automator]

NL Central Standings:

 TEAM WON LOST PCT GB HOME ROAD EAST CENT WEST STREAK ---- --- ---- --- -- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ------ ST LOUIS 53 30 .639 - 27-16 26-14 07-08 26-09 10-08 WON 3 CHICAGO CUBS 40 42 .488 12 1/2 21-21 19-21 05-12 18-15 11-06 LOST 6 HOUSTON 40 42 .488 12 1/2 26-13 14-29 04-11 19-18 10-05 WON 4 [b]MILWAUKEE 40 43 .482 13 23-16 17-27 06-09 19-19 07-08 WON 2[/b] PITTSBURGH 36 46 .439 16 1/2 18-20 18-26 07-08 15-23 09-08 WON 1 CINCINNATI 33 50 .398 20 24-22 9-28 10-10 12-25 04-07 WON 2 

 

Brewerfan.net / StatFox matchup info:

www.brewerfan.net/ViewMat...n?teamId=1

 

ESPN Statpack:

sportsmed.starwave.com/Ad...706128.pdf

 

Milwaukeebrewers.com game preview:

milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com...p&c_id=mil

[ja002h]

In a perfect world, at the end of the night we're back in 2nd!

[brettac1]

no haikus tonight

it is a marvelous thing

now i can post here

[nullbyte]

Aye.. I'd be happy this year to finish ahead of the Cubs, and if that means being in 2nd, awesome.

[scoop53714]

I know we all hate the cubs but finishing ahead of them won't give us long term satisfaction. The Braves are currently way out in front of the Wild Card pack and need to be brought back down to Earth. The Cubs suck. That is great, but catching ATL should be the greater goal. Milwaukee has a pretty nicely balanced team, despite the fact that a lot of fans still are convinced we "suck" and thinking of the postseason is strickly for the clinically insane. We are middle of the NL pack in scoring runs and towards the top of the leader board in team ERA and Whip. This isn't the 2002 Milwaukee Brewers. The team is one winning stretch away from being right smack dab in the Wild Card chase. Jenkins and Hardy, who tag teamed to create serious drag on the offense in the first 60+ games are both looking more like the players we assumed they would be this year. Branyan is back healthy and adding a new bit of pop in the lineup. Clark, Lee, Hall, Overbay and Miller are all very solid spots in the order. Weeks has jumped in and made the offense much more potent. The entire pitching staff has been exceptional.

 

This team should be setting its sights on running off a 20 game stretch where they win 14 or 15 and putting themselves in postseason contention. Watching the Cubs flounder is fun and all but that isn't enough. Blow by the Cubs on your way to making a Wild Card push. That would be crushing to Cubs fan far more than simply watching us finish with a few less losses than they.

[ja002h]

Your point is fair, but I think it probably doesn't really matter what the Cubs do against the Braves, given that the whole NL East is going to be beating on each other the last 2 months of the season. Hopefully they'll knock each other down and someone else can slip by.

[nullbyte]

No doubt finishing ahead of the Cubs isn't a long-term goal or an example of anything all that notable. I would just feel content with doing so this season (especially if it means finishing above .500) as a stepping stone to future success. While a wild card run would be great, there are still six teams ahead of us that are pretty decent.. Just not sure we're quite there yet. If we are, I'll be as pumped as anyone.

[Brian the Automator]

[ The team is one winning stretch away from being right smack dab in the Wild Card chase. Jenkins and Hardy, who tag teamed to create serious drag on the offense in the first 60+ games are both looking more like the players we assumed they would be this year. Branyan is back healthy and adding a new bit of pop in the lineup. ]

 

There should be a formula that GM's follow to see if they should buy or sell at the deadline. Something like

 

(# of "if's") * (current winning PCT) * (current winning PCT of teams remaining on schedule) / # of remaining games

 

or something to that effect.

 

The Brewers are one Carlos Lee injury away from a freefall. I really don't think they have the depth they need to make a run. I don't think they "suck", but it's hard to run before you can walk. The Brewers need to finish above .500 to get some traction, and then look at taking it to the next level. Otherwise, you will have to sell off some pretty good prospects to plug some holes.

 

The biggest problem with low payrolls isn't that you don't have some decent players, it's that you have a bunch of average or slightly above average players. There aren't all that many OBVIOUS holes in the lineup or the rotation, but there aren't a lot of studs either.

[scoop53714]

Quote:

---

The Brewers are one Carlos Lee injury away from a freefall. I really don't think they have the depth they need to make a run.

---

 

Thats a glass half full perspective. Its no fun for a lot of us to look at things that way. Sure, when/if the wheels come off you aren't as broken hearted as someone who really kept hope alive but is that any fun? Lets say ATL tanks and comes back down to the pack. Right now Milw is only 2.5 out of 2nd in the WC chase. I don't see a reason Milwaukee can't gain ground (while playing a weak central) on the likes of Philly, NY, Fla and ATL.

 

Quote:

---

Otherwise, you will have to sell off some pretty good prospects to plug some holes

---

 

What "holes" are you going to plug? What position is currently a "hole"? Right field is the only possible "hole" but dealing Jenkins is going to be sort of hard, plus his OPS is tracking toward .800 (currently .765) and he has played a nice RF.

 

I don't see any "holes" that need to be plugged. We don't have all-stars at any position but I don't see us in any dire need at any single position. We are set at 3rd, SS, 2B, 1B, LF, CF and perhaps RF. We are set with our Starting pitching and the bullpen is among the best in baseball. I just don't see all these problem spots that people talk about.

 

If we did decide to deal a trio of prospects, say Hart-Hendrickson-Nelson, what position would Melvin be trying to fix? I can envision it.

 

A while back I calculated what would happen if Milwaukee played .500 vs every team in the league, but managed 2 of 3 from Cincy, Pittsburgh and Houston. At that point it would have given the team something like 86 wins. I can't find that post but it seams like a scenario like that is sort of being played out. Our schedule down the stretch is very favorable. Keeping ATL withing reach is crucial.

[brewizard]

There we go again. A two game winning streak (gasp) on the road and we're talking playoffs...

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/roll.gif

[Brian the Automator]

[ What "holes" are you going to plug? What position is currently a "hole"? Right field is the only possible "hole" but dealing Jenkins is going to be sort of hard, plus his OPS is tracking toward .800 (currently .765) and he has played a nice RF. ]

 

#1 - 2nd starter - Davis isn't acting like a true #2 anymore

#2 - RF - Gotta have power from your corners

#3 - LOOGY - Phelps and JDLR aren't cutting it

#4 - 3B - While Cirillo/Branyan/Hall aren't stinking up the joint, they're not a bastion of consistency

#5 - SS - Not necessarily a hole, but they need to make a decision. Either let Hardy play everyday and improve, so put Hall there and let Hardy get his ab's in AAA

[igor67]

One thing the Brewers do have going for them is that regardless of which way you slice the Pythagorean record they have underperformed thus far, whereas a number of other teams are playing above their heads and likely in for a little reality check. At the start of the season the Brewers had something like a 3% shot at the postseason according to a variety of predictions. According to BP's in season estimator they are now just under a 10% shot at the postseason. Not anything worth betting the farm on, but a positive step. All things considered I wouldn't hesitate to do a deal as a seller or a buyer depending on how things play out. Basically don't be afraid to sell anything you get a good price on knowing most of the players we could replace that we would trade. At the same time you can hold off towards the end of the month and if you catch a streak it could easily be worth an investment to buy at the deadline.

[Kraft4a3]

There we go again. A two game winning streak (gasp) on the road and we're talking playoffs...

 

Brewers Fans:

 

http://knotts-berry-farm.visit-los-angeles.com/Wood-Roller-Coaster.jpg

 

Don't worry the Fire Yost Threads will be bumped up when they lose two in a row.

 

However, I do like the positive vibe I am feeling from this board, not to mention the Brewers. Lets keep the positive Karma flowing today.

 

Nothing but good thoughts.

[brewizard]

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Must think happy thoughts.

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif

[dixieflatline]

I agree that it is unlikely that the crew could win the WC this year but if they are in the hunt two things they will going for them is that they end with 25 home games in their last 37 and they will have some nice september call ups. Adding some or all of Fielder, Hart, Cruz, Cappellen, Hendrickson, and Adams could really be a boost for the final month. If they could close to a few games out by the time september rolls around I would like their chances.

[madcrewfan]

Quote:

---

I know we all hate the cubs but finishing ahead of them won't give us long term satisfaction. The Braves are currently way out in front of the Wild Card pack and need to be brought back down to Earth. The Cubs suck. That is great, but catching ATL should be the greater goal.

---

We get our shot at Atlanta on Friday. Right now, I say kick the scrubs while they are down. Atlanta is not in our division while Chicago is, and I wouldn't mind a little help from Atlanta in putting some distance between us and the scrubs, especially now that Lee is injured. I agree with letting the NL East beat each other up over the next couple months.

[JB]

I'm blanking out. What is the Yost quote where he says "gamers, fighters, etc." and when did he say it?

[madcrewfan]

Quote:

---

There we go again. A two game winning streak (gasp) on the road and we're talking playoffs...

---

Well, if you really want to look at the positive side, we've won five out of our last six, with that horrible disaster vs. the Pirates at MP being the only aberration lately. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif It's like that scene from Super Troopers where they're testing out the bulletproof cup:

 

Mac: "How's your shooting, Thorny?"

Ramathorne: "Good. I've been dead on all morning."

Mac: "What about that little guy?"

[He holds up a target with a tight group in the chest. Mac points to a bullet hole in the target's head.]

Ramathorne: "Who, that little guy? I wouldn't worry about that little guy."

 

Hopefully the bullpen disaster in that game is a little guy we don't have to worry about. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[ja002h]

I'm blanking out. What is the Yost quote where he says "gamers, fighters, etc." and when did he say it?

 

"We've got the fighters, the gamers, the hard-workers."

 

I believe he says it at his opening spring training speech. I think it's in one of the latter Go Brewers All Access Ticket episodes.

[Oswald Chesterfield Cobble]

that was said on the first day of spring training, the team plays it before the brewers starting lineups are introduced.

[deeswan]

I don't know about playoffs, wild card, or even .500 this year. What I do know is that a road trip that I saw as very difficult has started out 2-0. Given the way this team has played on the road prior to the last 2 games, I'll happily take that and not yet worry about all the other stuff.

[rluzinski]

 [b]NATIONAL W L Pct GB[/b] Atlanta 47 37 .560 - Florida 42 39 .519 3.5 Phil. 42 42 .500 5 NY Mets 41 42 .494 5.5 Cubs 40 42 .488 6 Houston 40 42 .488 6 Arizona 41 44 .482 6.5 Milwaukee 40 43 .482 6.5 LA Dodgers 39 44 .470 7.5 

Before I worry about Atlanta the Brewers need to get to .500 and NOT have 6 teams between themselves and the Braves.

[ja002h]

the Brewers need to get to .500 and NOT have 6 teams between themselves and the Braves.

 

Well they could conceivably pass FIVE of those teams in 2 days, so I don't think it's that big a deal.

[RyDogg66]

No matter how tight it is, any time you need to pass 7 teams to win the wild card you have a long way to go.

 

Its like a long distance race, you pass people one at a time, pick the person directly in front of you and get past them, then worry about the next guy. Before you know you are in the lead with only worrying about the leader at the end.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Except that if one team wins, another loses. Sounds simple, right? It's pretty hard to pass six teams because that means half the league is losing...and thus the other half is winning. Unless the schedule lines up perfectly, odds are good that as one of the teams ahead of you fades, another one surges.