Link Report for Tue. 7/3 -- Late Media Updates Included

[gregmag]

I'd really like to see him mash a little more in Brevard (as much as anyone could mash there).

 

That actually may be the most plausible explanation for why they skipped him a level -- maybe they figured the one thing he really needed to work on was something he couldn't work on effectively in the FSL.

 

Everything both Brett and Toby are saying makes sense, and I can see the arguments for why the Brewers should have just moved Brantley up one level. But given what they actually did do, however unwise it may have been, I'm still not sure that moving him to Brevard now would make sense. In other words, assuming moving him to AA was a bad idea, I don't know whether the organization is in a position to fix their mistake without compounding it -- at least not until he has shown more conclusively that he's overmatched.

 

Greg.

[gregmag]

Sorry to double-post, but lest I get overly obsessed with Brantley, I have to bow in the general direction of Darren Ford. He now has about a third of the ABs in Brevard that he had in WV. His average is lower, and (no surprise) he hasn't hit with power. But --

 

-- His K rate is almost exactly what it was in WV, but his walk rate has risen by fifty percent, keeping his OBP within striking distance of what it was at WV (.372 to .39http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/glasses.gif .

 

-- He has actually been twice the base stealer at Brevard that he was in WV. He was 31 of 41 in WV; using a crude SB-CS measure, that put him at +21. In Brevard, he's 16 of 18, or +14, which projects to +42 if you equalize the ABs. That's scary good.

 

It's a small sample, but I don't know what more we could hope to see from a budding leadoff man.

 

Greg.

[Mass Haas]

I've posted this before, and And That posted it as well, but does anyone have any information on (Chad) Robinson? He's the only DFE yet to see action and it's driving me nuts.

 

The Brewers are taking it slow with Robinson, cognizant of the labrum surgery he had a couple of years ago. Apparently there is a touch of soreness in his arm at this time, and the Brewers are being cautious. He is now in a throwing program with team trainers and coaching staff. We are unsure of his scheduled debut date, but will fill you in if we learn more.

[Never Outhustled]

That actually may be the most plausible explanation for why they skipped him a level -- maybe they figured the one thing he really needed to work on was something he couldn't work on effectively in the FSL.

 

I think the reason Brantley is in AA is because the organization was most concerned with having its best prospects at the right level. That would be Cain, Ford, and Gillespie. BA had those 3 among the Brewers top 13 prospects, while Brantley didn't make the top 30. Ford outhit Brantley at WV this year. Brantley is a slap hitting corner OF, how is that going to help the Brewers at the big league level? I like Brantley, but he has to really change his game to give him a chance, as big league pitchers won't walk such a weak hitter.

 

but lest I get overly obsessed with Brantley, I have to bow in the general direction of Darren Ford.

 

Now heres a guy I can get excited about. Ried Nichols called him the fastest player he's ever seen recently, and he's not just all speed. He pops some homers (13 in the last year and a half, to Brantleys 2), and that will likely increase as he gains experience. He is not as polished as Brantley, as he didn't grow up in the game, but he has batspeed and awesome raw ability. To me, he has passed Cain as a prospect.

[TheCrew07]

Thanks Mass.

[Mass Haas]

Link while active, text follows:

 

www.dailymail.com/story/S...or-hitter/

 

It's all or nothing for hitter

Jacob Messer

Charleston Daily Mail Sportswriter

 

When West Virginia Power outfielder Stephen Chapman steps to the plate, the results usually are hit or miss.

 

Literally.

 

Chapman ranks first in home runs and second in strikeouts among his teammates, and he added to both of those totals Tuesday night in West Virginia's 11-3 victory over visiting Asheville. The Power improved to 55-26 overall and 7-6 in the second half. The Tourists dropped to 50-32, 8-5.

 

An Appalachian Power Park crowd of 4,211 watched Chapman collect his 11th and 12th home runs and 86th and 87th strikeouts this season. He also pushed his RBI total to 53, which ranks third on the team.

 

"That has been a problem I have had my whole life," Chapman said of his all-or-nothing results. "Sometimes, it seems like it's hit or miss. I know to get to the Big Leagues you have to be consistent.

 

"Some of the guys' talent level in the Major Leagues isn't much better than the players' (talent level) in the minor leagues, but they do everything on a consistent basis and keep their swing the right way.

 

"I have been trying a few things here and there. But I don't know. I just keep plugging away. Hopefully, everything will work out."

 

No one on the Power roster was hotter than Chapman entering Tuesday's series opener between two of the South Atlantic League's top teams. He hit .351 with one run and three RBI in West Virginia's previous 10 games.

 

"Honestly, I haven't felt good for the past month," said Chapman, whose batting average has increased from .247 to .265 since June 22. "And today I took the worst round of BP (batting practice) I have ever had in my life.

 

"I made (Power hitting coach Corey Hart) go back up to the cage with me, and we got back to the same tee-ball stance we had been working on. I got away from it for a while, and I couldn't tell you why, but we got back in there and did it today. I started my load a lot sooner, and it felt a lot better tonight. Hopefully, I can take it with me tomorrow."

 

He said "maintenance" will help him continue his hot hitting.

 

"Just getting in the cage every day," said the 21-year-old Chapman, an Auburn University recruit who bypassed college for a $159,000 signing bonus after the Milwaukee Brewers selected him in the sixth round of the 2004 Major League Baseball Draft.

 

"Some days, you're tired. Some days, you have energy. But you have to keep plugging away. We have hitting with Corey everyday. You just have to keep doing the fundamentals that got you to this point."

 

Power Manager Mike Guerrero has noticed an improvement in Chapman, a 6-foot, 180-pound, five-tool prospect whom Baseball America considers the 28th overall prospect in the Brewers' farm system.

 

"He had some bumps in the road earlier this season, but he is starting to come around," Guerrero said. "He is starting to take a better approach at the plate, and he is starting to take better hacks at the ball.

 

"You have to be patient to be a good hitter, and you also have to swing at strikes. Once you start doing that, you are going to be fine.

 

"It is good to see that he can get turned around and warmed up."

 

Chapman hit two-run homers in back-to-back innings (the fourth and fifth), with both right-field shots landing on Morris Street.

 

The Power finished with 16 hits, including at least one from all nine of its batters.

 

Designated hitter Kenny Holmberg, who was on base for both of Chapman's homers, led the team with three.

 

Chapman, shortstop Brent Brewer, right fielder Chuckie Caufield, center fielder Charlie Fermaint and third baseman Jimmy Mojica each had two.

 

Catcher Andy Bouchie, first baseman Andrew Lefave and second baseman Brad Miller added one apiece.

 

Chapman had a team-high four RBI. Mojica came through with three, all on a second-inning double off the left-field wall.

 

Caufield collected two on a sixth-inning homer. Lefave also added two on a third-inning sacrifice and sixth-inning single.

 

Making his third start since coming off the disabled list, Alex Periard (4-1) got the win for the Power.

 

He allowed three runs on two hits and four walks in five innings. The right-hander fanned the side in the fifth for his only strikeouts.

 

"My main goal is to get more innings and more pitches every outing," said Periard, who was sidelined with an ear infection. "And I'm just trying to stay healthy."

 

Reliever Travis Wendte pitched four scoreless innings to pick up his second save. The right-hander surrendered only two hits and finished with four strikeouts.

 

The teams will continue their four-game series at 4:05 PM today (3:05 Central).

 

West Virginia will start left-hander Mike Ramlow (4-2, 7.05). Asheville will throw right-hander Aneury Rodriguez (3-6, 5.57).

 

As part of the Fourth of July festivities, a free concert and fireworks will follow the game.

[rotoherb]

I understand what you're saying, but you're also missing out if you don't realize that Brantley increased his SLG by 100 points over last year at that level. There's no guarantee that he'll hit for more power in the future, but with his on base skills, he'll only need to hit in the 10-15 HR/yr range to be productive. He's 6' 2'' and just turned 20 this past May, I do think he'll add some muscle over the next few years. He's probably playing at a level too high, but at this point I trust the Brewers judgement on what's best for him and everyone else.

 

I don't really get the "not in the BA top 30" thing. He'd easily be in the top 30 if it were done today, probably ahead of Fermaint.

[gregmag]

I think the reason Brantley is in AA is because the organization was most concerned with having its best prospects at the right level. That would be Cain, Ford, and Gillespie. BA had those 3 among the Brewers top 13 prospects, while Brantley didn't make the top 30. Ford outhit Brantley at WV this year. Brantley is a slap hitting corner OF, how is that going to help the Brewers at the big league level? I like Brantley, but he has to really change his game to give him a chance, as big league pitchers won't walk such a weak hitter.

 

Well, let's see. Brantley and Ford played a half year at the same level, with each getting just about 220 AB. They hit for exactly the same average. In that head-to-head competition (if that's what you want it to be), Ford collected:

 

three more triples

three more homers

thirteen more steals

four more times caught stealing

eight fewer walks

34 more strikeouts.

 

In those numbers, you see the difference between a power hitter and a slap hitter; I see one guy with a bit more power than the other. You see the difference between blinding speed and good speed; I agree, but I also see that the good speed guy is a better baserunner (although the blinding speed guy has made a believer of me since his promotion). You see, as you must, that one guy has off-the-charts plate discipline, but you don't want that inconvenient fact to get in the way of your opinion, so you chalk it up to "growing up in the game" rather than ability, based -- I take it -- on nothing more than, well, not wanting inconvenient facts to get in the way of your opinion.

 

Oh, another inconvenient fact you ignored: Ford is 19 months older than Brantley. You conflated their power numbers over the past season and a half to make the power differential look huge. It was huge, last year. It isn't anymore, because younger guys tend to gain more power than older ones. Here are some isolated power numbers for players we're discussing, all in their age 20 seasons (Ford was actually more like 20.5), all in West Virginia:

 

Ford, 2006: .104

Cain, 2006: .118

Brantley, 2007, .105

 

So two of these guys are serious hitters, and the third is a "slap hitter"? In fact, there is no good basis for projecting Ford as having more power as a big leaguer than Brantley, and not much basis for projecting Cain as having more.

 

Also, dissing Brantley based on last year's BA rankings, when the guy is obviously having a breakout season this year, is kind of pointless, wouldn't you say?

 

I love Ford's talent, especially his speed -- and you're absolutely right that he isn't just speed. I also agree that Brantley's inability to play CF (if indeed he can't, rather than just being not as good at it as Ford and Cain) is a disadvantage. But no recent Milwaukee OF prospect has shown Brantley's ability at his age, and his step forward with power this season provides encouraging evidence -- not to say proof -- that he'll improve on the weak part of his game. So go ahead and cook / ignore the facts however you want. Brantley is at AA because, just like the three guys you prefer, he's a hell of a prospect.

 

Greg.

[igor67]

I'm struggling a little for good comps to Brantley at the moment in terms of highside ability, but if you look at downside potential between Ford and Brantley that can be instructive. I see Brantley's downside as Rich Becker. Enough pop that he isn't Tynered, but could see his average take some hits and settle in as a 5 OF type who can get on base and that's about it. Ford with his still unimpressive plate discipline could easily become David Krynzel. It's not that I have a problem with a leadoff hitter having a high k rate it's that extremely high K rates usually lead to flameouts if not corrected.

[Never Outhustled]

Also, dissing Brantley based on last year's BA rankings, when the guy is obviously having a breakout season this year, is kind of pointless, wouldn't you say?

 

You seem to be basing your opinion on A ball stats, BA, and myself, are basing our opinions on the players raw ability and projectability to the majors, not to AA.

 

You see, as you must, that one guy has off-the-charts plate discipline, but you don't want that inconvenient fact to get in the way of your opinion, so you chalk it up to "growing up in the game" rather than ability, based -- I take it -- on nothing more than, well, not wanting inconvenient facts to get in the way of your opinion.

 

 

1st, to address the part I bolded. If you want me to further explain an opinion in the future simply ask, and I'd be happy to. I see no need for you to assume how I got to a conclusion, and I think civil discussions are more enjoyable, and informative, for everyone. No ned to get bristly. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Research has shown, with pretty strong results, that plate discipline at low level baseball doesn't translate into upper levels. Its more of a sign of a hitter being closer to maxxed out than it is a sign of a future big leaguer.

 

 

So two of these guys are serious hitters, and the third is a "slap hitter"? In fact, there is no good basis for projecting Ford as having more power as a big leaguer than Brantley, and not much basis for projecting Cain as having more.

 

Bat speed is far far better predictor of future power than A ball stats, and I mentioned earlier that scouts consider Ford (and Cain) to have very good bat speed.

 

Like I said, I like Brantley, but only the best of the best position players prospects make MLB. He is not among the best prospects.

[gregmag]

X, if you wanted civil discussion, then you shouldn't have departed from it in your earlier post. The reason I got bristly (nice word, actually) is that you made big, blustery assertions, dismissed my views with no real reasoning, and ignored information that undercut your position while overstating information that supports it. That sort of one-sided ramrodding, followed by sweeping assertions that completely dismiss the positions of anyone who disagrees with you, has nothing to do with "civil discussion." I'll try not to get bristly if you'll try to be a bit more evenhanded in your analysis and cognizant of the possibility that, just maybe, you may not be absolutely right.

 

I appreciate your elaborations, but I respectfully hold to my view: you're taking complicated information, some of which supports your bias and some of which doesn't, and reaching a conclusion that I don't think is even correct, much less as painfully obvious as you make it out to be.

 

Greg.

[Mass Haas]

David Weiser's

 

www.starsboxscore.com/

 

KATIN HITS 15th AT THE BIG CHIP

NEAR CAPACITY CROWD AT PRINGLES PARK

The Stars' overworked bullpen survived a shaky 9th to preserve an early 9-2 lead, backed by Brendan Katin's 15th home run of the season, a three-run shot to left and additional support from Michael Brantley and Hernan Iribarren to beat the Diamond Jaxx before the Big Chip's largest crowd of the year........ The D'Jaxx, with the near-capacity turnout, are still averaging less than 1,800 per game, and have still drawn fewer than 80,000 fans for the season........ The Huntsville Stars, who return home to play the Smokies Wednesday night for undoubtedly the biggest crowd of the season, will break the 100,000 barrier for season attendance tonight. They are averaging 2,336 per game -- 9th in the ten-team Southern League.

 

The Stars have gotten off to a slow start in the 2nd half (6-10)........ They've hit .240, supporting a rotation ERA of 4.22 and a bullpen ERA of 5.47, which must improve if the Stars are to capture the 2nd half, as well, but even if they don't, the Stars won't get far in the playoffs without a reliable bullpen.

 

So with the team 6-10 and 4th in the North, what's the state of the bullpen?........ In the Stars' last 10 games, it's had to work 43 2/3 innings. After giving up just two runs in 14 innings to start the 2nd half, they've given up 31 earned runs on 57 hits in those 43 2/3........ The pen is 1-4 with four saves, but in the last seven games, 0-4 with two saves....... The Stars' premier closer, Marino Salas, hasn't saved a game since June 8. He got through June without allowing an earned run in 11 innings, lowering his ERA to 0.82 as the month ended, but it looks like that's as low as it's going to get after Tuesday's appearance, when he came on for Corey Thurman (2-5, 4.94) in the 6th inning and walked four straight batters....... Bo Hall finished with a June ERA of 3.86 and was lit for two runs on four hits in 1 2/3 IP in relief in Tuesday's 1st game........Steve Hammond has been moved to the pen and has a save and a 1.80 ERA in five innings........ Robert Hinton had a disastrous June (16.87 ERA in eight appearances). He hasn't had two scoreless innings in an appearance since June 1 and in the 2nd half, he's given up eight runs on 13 hits in five innings over his last three appearances........ Jeff Housman's June was equally appalling, allowing 10 runs on 17 hits in 9 2/3 innings (a 9.31 ERA). Wednesday, he pitched a shaky 9th, walking four and giving up two runs....... David Johnson has given up five runs (four earned) on seven hits in 7 1/3 innings over his last three games in relief........ Fireballer Luis Pena has taken the loss in his last two appearances and given up two runs on six hits over his last six innings........ The Stars won the 1st half with a strong bullpen (2.67 and 2.61 ERAs in April and May). Without it, their chances for a Southern Division Championship are frail.