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7/19/05 Brewers (Davis) @ Cardinals (Suppan) 7:10pm CST

bjamesw22

By bjamesw22,
in Archived Game Threads

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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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As a final comment about sacrificing to get a runner at 3rd with 1 out. Between 199-2002, In that exact situation, exactly 0 runs were scored 1 in 3 times. That's right, 33% of the time 0 runs were scored.

 

Must just be the bad teams.

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tomwopat Draft Eligible

tomwopat

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Quote:
(FWIW, I disagree with the people who say that the bunt was a bad play. 60+ % of the time, Brady doesn't do any better than the situation created by bunting: a productive out. The Expected Runs table shows that a runner at 3rd with no outs makes it more likely that a single run will score than a runner at second with no outs.

 

I don't understand your point. wasn't the situation after the productive out a runner on 3rd with one out? the fact that the heart of the order, with higher batting averages, is coming up should make it more likely that you'll score with a base hit rather than a productive out.

 

0 -2- 1.13

1 --3 0.96

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endaround Carolina Mudcats

endaround

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bj you're looking at wrong columns:

 

expected runs man on 2nd no outs--1.13

 

expected runs mon 3rd one out--0.96

 

You're prbbability of scoring at least one run increases, but by very little (from .633 to .667). So since on average you noly have a three percent increase in scoring you need to look at who is hitting carefully.

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wickedheat Prep Ball

wickedheat

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Awesome game!

 

Glad I watched almost every out of this one...a real treat. I could list half a dozen great things about this game, but I think I'll go to bed since I have to get up at 5 tomorrow.

 

GO CREW!!!!!

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Ralph Wiggum College Ball

Ralph Wiggum

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It's games like this that make me incredibly glad that Tommy Phelps is in Nashville. There is NO WAY he holds a lead in a game like this. Eveland will have his bumps in the road, but his stuff is SO much better than Phelps' puss.

 

Letting JDLR pitch in a pressure situation? Very cool. He pitched well, too. Hopefully Ned doesn't put him back in hibernation. Besides Bottalico, I really like how this staff is looking. I think Ricky and Santana are probably gone at the deadline, and we'll see Adams and Bennett back here, followed by Capellan. Justin Lehr comes up if a starter is jettisoned.

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augie46 Prep Ball

augie46

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I am sure that this post will be more odd than my usual, that was an emotionally wrenching win. Whenever the Brewers play the Cardinals I realize that I am still not over the 1982 World Series. I will go to my grave saying that Pete Ladd got squeezed in game two and that the Brewers really won that game. Plus, what if Fingers could pitch and what if Vuke wasn't pitching hurt.

 

The bullpen was outstanding tonight. Our young guys really came through. And they had to do it by getting extra outs. We got some big hits tonight.

 

Sometimes this team reminds of the 1991 Packers, their last losing season. That team made some good plays, but two or three bad ones were too much to overcome. This Brewer team shows flashes but has a hard time doing things right on a consistant enough basis. Things are turning around here.

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bjkrautk First Round Pick

bjkrautk

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Playing with the lead, I have no problem playing for one run. If Brady makes an out without advancing the runner (say he strikes out, or induces any one of the multitude of non-productive outs referenced earlier), here's the expected run situation:

 

1 -2- 0.69 0.414

 

That doesn't even include the potential that Brady hits the ball on the left side of the infield, getting Durrington into a rundown. Or an infield hit that fails to advance the runner. After Clark hits, the situation isn't going to be second & no outs.

 

I don't have a problem with reducing the risk of scoring zero runs when the odds of scoring more than one run are relatively minor.

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Ralph Wiggum College Ball

Ralph Wiggum

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I don't have a problem with reducing the risk of scoring zero runs when the odds of scoring more than one run are relatively minor.

 

Nice work B.J. Evidently, it's easier to bash every decision your manager makes than to actually think about them.

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