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7/25/05 D-Backs (Gosling) @ Brewers (Sheets) 7:05 CST

rluzinski

By rluzinski,
in Archived Game Threads

rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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M. Gosling (L), 0-2, 4.50 ERA

VS.

B. Sheets ®, 5-7, 3.51 ERA

 

http://i.timeinc.net/TFK/media/news/photos/000927_oly_baseball_ver.jpg

 

STATPACK

 

MLB PREVIEW

 

 

Counting Sunday's finale at Cincinnati, the team played 43 of its last 66 games away from home and had enjoyed only one homestand of more than three games since late May. Starting with Monday's series opener against Arizona, the Brewers play 38 of their remaining 63 games at home, including 25 of 34 games from Aug. 21 to Sept. 29. LINK

 Rluz's Predictions ------------------- [b]Brewers Sweep: 34%[/b] Brewers Win 2: 44% Brewers Win 1: 19% Brewers Swept: 3%

 

With Sheets and Cap going in this series, may I say that a sweep is not only possible, but almost PROBABLE? I know, knock on wood. BTW, since I've been keeping track of series probables, it's been dead on 6 of 8 times. Not too shabby.

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hawing MVP

hawing

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Gosling's bio says he was born in Madison.

Not that that'll make me root for him.

 

Finally I get to see (in person) Ben start - first time in 2005. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Remember: the Brewers never panic like you do.
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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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We never learn. Sniff *cry* sniff

 

I am the biggest advocate of not calling for something I feel isn't a realistic goal. After crunching the numbers I think it IS realistic. This isn't like calling for a sweep on the road against a team that's not much worse than us. Despite their record, Arizona is a pitiful team. Tomm's game will be the hardest, since Webb can beat anyone (he's a darn good pitcher), but I love the Brewer's chances in this series.

 

It screwed the Tampa and Cincy series.

 

The Tampa Series is what prompted me to start calculating the odds of a series. You know what, they weren't even favored to WIN either series, much less sweep them.

 

They WILL win the ARI series; that's a rluz guarantee! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

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Bucky Rules College Ball

Bucky Rules

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Well... I don't know about a sweep just yet, but this one looks like a real nice matchup. Gosling allows baserunners at an alarming clip(2.0+ WHIP), he walks the house (2 every 3 innings), and it appears he's been on about a 90 pitch limit to this point as a starter. Even if he stretches out to 100, he could be out of the game by the 5th inning, if the Brewers stay patient. And their bullpen has... well... they're not good.

 

Oh yeah... we've also got Sheets hurling.

 

For the 2nd time this season, I am guaranteeing a W.

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xisxisxis First Round Pick

xisxisxis

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Can you really just add the two to get 78% chance of winning?

 

Yes. Winning the series means the Brewers win 2 (44% chance) or the Brewers win 3 (34% chance). Just add the likelihoods of either event happening to have a "winning" series.

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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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Can you really just add the two to get 78% chance of winning?

 

Yes you can. Those odds are for the Brewers to get EXACTLY the number of wins listed. Add them together and you get 78%. Now, since the Brewers will be sending out the top of their rotation and the D-Backs may have scrubs for the entire series, the actual probabilites are actually better. My numbers assume the average pitching for each team (based on total runs given up for the year).

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bjamesw22 Draft Eligible

bjamesw22

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Now, since the Brewers will be sending out the top of their rotation and the D-Backs may have scrubs for the entire series, the actual probabilites are actually better.

 

That's what I was wondering, if who was pitching effected those two numbers added. I would assume it wouldn't make a huge difference but would probably make the probability of winning the series closer to 80-82%.

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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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Yeh, I just look at the total runs the D-Backs have given up on the year. I could try to adjust the probabilites to take into account individual starting pitchers but that would be too subjective for my tastes.

 

Better to just look at raw numbers and put them into context.

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