8/18/05 - Brewers (Ohka) @ Astros (Clemens)

[wisportswriter]

Problem is, even if the Crew goes on a 4- or 5-game winning streak, any of the other 800 teams in front of them could do the same and they'd be no closer.

 

I would love it -- Love it! -- if the Brewers were within a couple of games of the WC as the season drew to a close. But I don't see it happening.

 

.500 remains the goal.

[Ennder]

Only reason Houston is over .500 is one big winning streak and everyone seems to think they will win it all, even though they are the 4th or 5th best team still in the hunt. All it takes is that one big streak apparently.

[bsglorydays]

Worst start of the season for Clemens

 

He was unhittable for what, 6 innings.

 

I also enjoyed the early talk of "this game is over" blah blah blah. I just wish I was able to take part in the game thread tonight. What happens when the Brewers come back and win??? Those posters disappear, of course.

[moofnelson]

The way I look at the WC race is that the Brewers aren't chasing 4 or 5 teams, they are trying to reach a certain number of wins.

Right now, Philly is on pace for 87 wins. If the Brewers go 25 -10 in their next 35, they would have 85 wins with 5 left to play. I would imagine they would be in the WC hunt at that point.

25-10 is not a ridiculous feat, but it is something the Brewers haven't accomplished much in the last 13 years. Also, there would be the pressure of a WC chase to deal with.

 

It sure would be fun to be in a race to make the playoffs!

 

moofhttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[nullbyte]

Quote:

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They're 2 games back of .500 but 4 games back of being 2 games over .500.

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If you're using the traditional standings "games back" figure, it's 1 game back of 81-81 and 2 from 82-80... since each win only gains you a half game in the standings. It's like..

 

((W1-W2) + (L2-L1))/2

 

(give me subscripts, ezboard!)

[rluzinski]

dont act like you are the only one who knows what a statistical longshot this is. We KNOW that there is a 1 in 100 shot

 

I was simply responding to homer asking me to "live a little."

 

We also know that we are a 5 or 6 game win streak away from raising the odds to about 1 in 20.

 

Assuming a 50/50 chance of winning the next 5 games (I'm being generous), we have a 3% chance away from having a 5% chance of winning the wildcard? Is that supposed to change my perspective?

 

If you cant allow yourself the joy of pondering those types of scenarios then I truely dont understand your passion for being a brewer fan... Just enoy the freaking ride with the knowledge that something special COULD happen. If you dont, why bother?

 

I guess I could live every day HOPING that I win the lottery, or Angelina Jolie calls me up, but I don't operate like that. I'd rather set an aggressive but attainable goal of 84 wins.

 

Baseball isn't a sprint; it's a marathon. I take greater solace as a Brewer fan knowing that we have a young team brimming with talent. It makes me giddy to think that we'll have guys like Sheets, Cappy, Fielder, Weeks, Hart, and Hardy for YEARS. I trully believe that with them and others, the Brewers are going to string together a few years where we won't HAVE to feaverishly hold on to a 1% chance of the wild card.

 

PS...do you HONESTLY care if they reach 81 or 82 wins?

 

As a said, my goal is 84 wins and a winning season. I think it's significant that the Brewers have their first winning season since Bush Sr.? That's a positive that will easily spill over into the next season.

 

Let's remember that all I did in this thread was show MY race standings (to a winning season). I didn't challenge anyone; I didn't try to squash anyone's hopes of a wildcard. I will continue to update that standings but no more of this stuff.

 

Where's the "beating a dead horse" picture when you need one?

[rluzinski]

If you're using the traditional standings "games back" figure, it's 1 game back of 81-81 and 2 from 82-80... since each win only gains you a half game in the standings. It's like..

 

The traditional "games back" number requires that your team wins AND your opponent loses to make up 1 "game back". Since my "opponent" cannot lose, I simply doubled that number. It seemed more descriptive to list the amount of wins the Brewers needed before playing .500 ball the rest of the way would have them reach their goal.

 

Four more wins and they can coast to a winning record.

[endaround]

Ender you keep saying that as if Houston is lucky or something. Houston is actualyl under playing its Pythagorean win percentage as are all other WC teams save Philly. Houston has three of the top ten pitchers. Houston has Morgan Ensberg playing as a top 5 player in the NL. They have Lance Berkman and Craig Biggio producing at a very good pace. Now the rest of the lineup isn't great and Houson's 4th starter is bleow aveage and their 5th starter has pitched as well as Gary Glover. That's whats keepping them from being St Louis. But Houston has talent.

[Ennder]

Pettitte won't keep up what he's doing, Oswalts complaining about his arm and their offense is terrible. Pythagorean records are pretty shaky and that includes their hot streak, looking at the parts of that team its a .500 team who went on an amazing run. They played .500 ball before the streak and are playing .500 ball after the streak.

[rluzinski]

So, as long as you take out the part of the season where they won alot of games, they are .500? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/grin.gif

 

All stats point to Houston being exactly what they look like; a team that will finish with 86-89 wins and may win the wildcard.