8/18/05 - Brewers (Ohka) @ Astros (Clemens)

[Ando Calrissian]

Figured I'd jump on this one early as this ought to be a fun series.

 [pre] [b]Central[/b] W L PCT GB HOME ROAD EAST CENT WEST AL L10 STRK St. Louis 76 44 .633 - 39-23 37-21 11-11 36-16 19-12 10-5 7-3 W2 Houston 64 56 .533 12.0 40-20 24-36 15-14 25-25 17-9 7-8 5-5 L2 Chicago 59 62 .488 17.5 30-30 29-32 9-19 30-24 14-10 6-9 5-5 W2 Milwaukee 59 62 .488 17.5 31-25 28-37 15-15 23-28 13-12 8-7 4-6 W2 Cincinnati 54 66 .450 22.0 33-32 21-34 12-14 21-29 14-15 7-8 5-5 L4 Pittsburgh 51 69 .425 25.0 26-31 25-38 12-17 18-31 16-14 5-7 5-

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 [pre] [b]Wild Card Standings[/b] Team W L PCT GB HOME ROAD EAST CENT WEST AL L10 STRK Houston 64 56 .533 - 40-20 24-36 15-14 25-25 17-9 7-8 5-5 L2 Philadelphia 64 56 .533 - 37-26 27-30 21-27 17-15 19-6 7-8 7-3 W1 Washington 63 56 .529 0.5 34-22 29-34 20-24 17-16 14-10 12-6 5-5 L1 Florida 62 57 .521 1.5 34-27 28-30 23-25 15-15 14-12 10-5 5-5 W1 New York 61 58 .513 2.5 38-23 23-35 25-22 19-17 12-9 5-10 6-4 W2 Chicago 59 62 .488 5.5 30-30 29-32 9-19 30-24 14-10 6-9 5-5 W2 Milwaukee 59 62 .488 5.5 31-25 28-37 15-15 23-28 13-12 8-7 4-6 

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The starting pitchers:

 

Tomo Ohka, RHP, 7-7, 3.82 ERA vs. Roger Clemens, RHP, 11-4, 1.32 ERA

 

Probable Starters Report from milwaukeebrewers.com:

 

Scouting Report:

Ohka followed up an eight-inning gem in Philadelphia with another solid start at Miller Park against the Reds, and has surrendered one earned run over his last 14 2/3 innings of work. That lone run scored after Ohka had left the start against the Reds, when a sacrifice fly against reliever Dana Eveland sent Ohka to a tough-luck loss. He has issued just two walks in his last 15 1/3 innings, and after allowing nine homers in his first eight Brewers starts, he hasn't been hit for a long ball in four straight appearances.

 

Clemens lowered his already miniscule ERA in his last outing, throwing eight shutout frames in the Astros' 1-0 loss to the Pirates. The Rocket has been hampered by lower back problems for four starts, but it's hardly affected him on the mound -- during that time, he has allowed three earned runs over 29 innings. Clemens has held opponents to three runs or fewer in all but one outing this season.

 

Game Previews

 

Milwaukee Brewers Homepage

Milwaukee Journal Sentinal

CBS Sportsline

Fox Sports

Sports Illustrated

 

I would also like to have included the STAT Pack from espn.com but it keeps crashing my computer whenever I try and access the website. At any rate, here's sending some good vibes the way of the Brew Crew because they're going to need them tonight. Let's go get 'em boys!

[7rebmun]

Crew wins . . . 6-3. I garauntee it. 3 runs off Clemens, 3 off the bullpen. I can almost assure you all of Houston's runs will come by way of the HR. Probably 3 solo shots off Ohka.

[Ando Calrissian]

I'm really hoping that Tomo can keep it close and avoid the long ball (tough, I know, especially for a fly ball pitcher at Minute Maid Park).

[rluzinski]

 [b]Rluz's Probabilities[/b] ---------------------- Brewers Sweep: 2% Brewers Win 3: 14% Brewers Win 2: 33% Brewers Win 1: 36% Brewers Swept: 15% 

[Ando Calrissian]

rluz,

 

the daunting reality of your winning probabilities has cast a shroud over my day. here's hoping that our favorite team out-plays the forecast http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif

[nullbyte]

Hey, that's not bad at all. 49% that we at least split the series. I'll take that, on the road.

[Oswald Chesterfield Cobble]

id be happy with a split, tonite is going to be a challenge and i havent seen the matchups for this weekend yet.

[Ando Calrissian]

Oswald, if you follow this link it will give you the pitching matchups for the series.

[Bucky Rules]

Apparently the results of the MRI on Roger's back came back negative. Would've been a shame if he would've had to miss a start.

[rluzinski]

I assume Santos will go Sunday, huh?

[Ando Calrissian]

I assume Santos will go Sunday, huh?

 

It would be likely, otherwise Cappy would only be throwing on three days rest. However, at the moment the always infamous TBD is scheduled to pitch for the Crew. I don't know what his stats for the season are, but I have heard that he's a hard throwing prospect with a knee-buckling 12-6 curve http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Bucky Rules]

Quote:

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Hey, that's not bad at all. 49% that we at least split the series. I'll take that, on the road

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Allow me to be the glass half-empty guy for a moment... The Stros are 84% to at least split the series. Sounds like our best case scenario is a split. Considering we have Vic and Tomo going in the series, I'm not liking the looks of things. But, hey... I never would've predicted that we take the Colorado series with the Sheets game as our only loss -- so who knows?

[Ando Calrissian]

 [pre] [b]Hitters vs. Opposing Pitcher Stats[/b] [i]Brewers vs. Clemens[/i] Player AB Avg HR RBI SB BB D Miller 3 .333 0 0 0 0 L Overbay 10 .100 0 0 0 2 R Weeks - - - - - - R Branyan 15 .200 2 2 0 3 B Hall 1 .000 0 0 0 0 C Lee 17 .118 0 0 0 3 B Clark 5 .600 0 1 1 3 G Jenkins 9 .111 0 0 0 0 W Helms 5 .000 0 0 0 0 [i]Astros vs. Ohka[/i] Player AB Avg HR RBI SB BB B Ausmus 5 .400 0 0 0 1 L Berkman 4 .250 0 0 0 0 C Biggio 3 .000 0 0 0 0 M Ensberg 2 .500 0 0 0 0 A Everett - - - - - - C Burke - - - - - - W Taveras - - - - - - J Lane - - - - - - M Lamb 5 .000 0 0 

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[rluzinski]

Branyan hits a HR every 7.5 AB against Clemens, have to start him! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[ThePurpleStorm]

Quote:

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Roger Clemens (Cy Young-Schmy Young--7 IP per start and no CGs? Get to that bullpen, Crew!)

4-0, 35 IP, 21 H, 3 ER, 35 K/8 BB, 0.77 ERA, 0.83 WHIP

 

Ezequiel Astacio (6 HR in last 2 starts)

2-2, 27 IP, 26 H, 12 ER, 20 K/11 BB, 4.00 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

 

Wandy Rodriguez

3-1, 30 IP, 27 H, 16 ER, 14 K/12 BB, 4.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

 

Andy Pettitte

3-2, 37 IP, 29 H, 9 ER, 34 K/10 BB, 2.19 ERA, 1.05 WHIP

 

Vs.

 

Tomo Ohka

1-3, 31 IP, 35 H, 15 ER, 20 K/9 BB, 4.35 ERA, 1.42 WHIP

 

Doug Davis

0-1, 31.1 IP, 25 H, 15 ER, 34 K/17 BB, 4.34 ERA, 1.67 WHIP

 

Ben Sheets (and these numbers are after Coors Field!)

3-2, 40 IP, 35 H, 16 ER, 38 K/5 BB, 3.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

 

Victor Santos (Santos really starting to become a pitcher again)

2-1, 26.2 IP, 30 H, 17 ER, 13 K/11 BB, 5.84 ERA, 1.56 WHIP

 

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Got thst from Jsforum.

[AJAY]

Here is how they can try to beat Roger Clemens . . .

 

1) Don't overswing. Keep the swings short and just try to put the ball in play.

 

2) Try to hit to the opposite field. Don't try to pull everything.

 

3) Try bunting once in a while in order to disrupt Clemens' rhythym. Especially if he is in a nice groove. Clemens also has a bad back. Make him move and field his position a little.

[Diskono]

Why am I more worried about Ezequiel Astacio and Wandy Rodriguez than Clemens and Pettite?

[naivin]

Quote:

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Here is how they can try to beat Roger Clemens . . .

---

 

4. Have him pee in a cup and give it to MLB for a steroid test.

[Bucky Rules]

Quote:

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Why am I more worried about Ezequiel Astacio and Wandy Rodriguez than Clemens and Pettite?

---

Maybe because you're still in a mode that is more fearful of the Brewers being embarassed rather than fearful of losing. Nothing to worry about if you expect to lose. On the other hand, it can look bad if you lose to Astacio and Rodriguez.

 

Very common symptom of being a fan of a team that has been losing for over a decade.

[Mike2k33]

Why am I more worried about Ezequiel Astacio and Wandy Rodriguez than Clemens and Pettite?

 

 

Well, Wandy has already shut us down this year.

[rluzinski]

I think Clemens has done very well this year because he's a good pitcher. If I had to guess I would think Lee isn't thinking about whether Clemens is going to hit him, but rather what wicked pitch he's going to throw at him next.

[Ando Calrissian]

I spent some time this afternoon reading threads over at the Astros' fan site (astrosdaily.com, I believe) and the mood over their is quite interesting. As fans they really aren't feeling confident about their club right now (*sigh* I wish I didn't feel confident about my team that was ten games over .500). I know it would be tough for our bats to wake up agains their pitching staff, but their offense is about as streaky as ours. Let's hope that we can exploit that weakness even if we are playing them at home where they are 20 games over .500.

[brettac1]

Hey rluz, you should put that Log5 in the Statistical Analysis forum FAQ.

[rluzinski]

Hey rluz, you should put that Log5 in the Statistical Analysis forum FAQ.

 

Sorry, that's proprietary information. Next, you'll want me to explain how I calculate series probabilities. I'm planning on starting a subscription plan for it soon.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/grin.gif

 

Yeh, np. I have alot of stuff I'll add there eventually.

[rluzinski]

Just so everyone knows, the Astros are no longer leading the wild card race.