8/23 Marlins (Beckett) @ Brewers (Capuano) 7:05 CST

[brewerjamie15]

Milwaukee plays host to the fish of Florida this evening, in game one of a 12 game home stand against Florida (three games), Atlanta (three games), Pittsburgh (two games) and San Diego (four games).

 

Florida is 66-58 (.532) and Milwaukee is 61-64 (.488 )

 

Pitching matchup:

FLA: RHP Josh Beckett

? 12-6, 3.15 ERA in 2005

? 0-1, 13.50 ERA in 2005 vs. MIL

 

MIL: LHP Chris Capuano

? 13-8, 3.61 ERA in 2005

? 1-0, 5.14 ERA in 2005 vs. FLA

 

The opener of the series is a rematch of the July 5 game at Dolphins Stadium, when the Brewers scored three runs off Beckett in two innings of an eventual 6-4 win. Beckett left that game early with a left oblique strain, but in six starts since he's gone 4-0 with a 2.66 ERA.

 

Milwaukee has a 31-25 home record, while Florida enters the series with a 28-30 road record.

the Marlins are 1/2 game behind Philly for the Wild Card, while Milwaukee is 6.0 games back.

 

 

edit: date in subject

[rluzinski]

 Rluz's Probabilities ---------------------- Brewers Sweep 13% Brewers Win 2 38% Brewers Win 1 37% Brewers Swept 12% 

[Ando Calrissian]

rluz, interesting that we're almost as likely to win two as we are to win one. well then, let's win two because it's more fun and is a nice show for the kids. also kind of scary to note that we're almost as likely to be swept as we are to sweep. let's win two.

[Bucky Rules]

The road splits on Beckett are not nearly as scary as his home games. If Cappy pitches decent, this could be an interesting game in spite of the fact that at first glance you probably wouldn't like the matchup.

 

Home - 2.36 ERA; 0.99 WHIP

Road - 4.24; 1.27

[Jacob008]

Rlunz, how do you come up with your odds?

 

You must look at the probability of winning each game individually, right? Take into account pitching matchups, and therefore the lack of Dontrelle Willis in the series allows the Brewers to look (statistically) like the better team (38% chance two wins, 37% chance one win).

[rluzinski]

Rlunz, how do you come up with your odds?

 

I'll write up a short post with the exact equations in the "Statistical Analysis" Forum tonight. I use a combination of the Pythagorean Theorum and Log5 equation to come up with the probability of winning one game. I then adjust that to include an average home team advantage. From that it's pretty straight forward to come up with the chances of winning a specific number of games in a series.

 

You must look at the probability of winning each game individually, right?

 

Correct. To calculate the odds of winning a 3 game series, just add up the probabilty of winning 2 games and sweeping. In this case, there's a 51% chance of winning the series.

 

As for why it's basically even odds for the Crew and Florida; The Brewers "home team" advantage is almost completely balanced by Florida being a slightly better team.

[TheBwaz]

Quote:

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Home - 2.36 ERA; 0.99 WHIP

---

 

Not surprising seeing as he plays in that barn called Dolphin's stadium. Lets hope we can touch him for some dingers and Cappy keeps the ball down.

 

Gonna be at the game tonight. My weeknight record is 1-3 this year, so I hope me and the Crew inch a little closer to .500.

[Bucky Rules]

Quote:

---

Not surprising seeing as he plays in that barn called Dolphin's stadium. Lets hope we can touch him for some dingers and Cappy keeps the ball down.

---

That's true, but those are dominant numbers even if he were playing in the Grand Canyon. I don't want to sell the guy short here. I think he's a Sheets quality pitcher. But, he has given up a little on the road this year. Let's hope tonight is no exception.

[MadisonBrewerBlue]

http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b351/madisonbrewerblue/cappy.jpg

[MadisonBrewerBlue]

rluzinski what are the probabilities of a Brewer's 9-3 homestand ?

[DHarris34Phan]

We are going to get shut down by Beckett tonight.

[RoseBowlMtg]

I'm heading to the game right now to get this homestand off on the right track! Come on fans let's make this a great run!

[rluzinski]

rluzinski what are the probabilities of a Brewer's 9-3 homestand ?

 

9-3: 8%

10-2: 3%

11-1: 0.6%

12-0: 0.06%

 

So about a 12% chance of going 9-3 or better.

[JET15]

Drum roll, please... tonight's lineups...

 

Florida Marlins

Juan Pierre CF

Luis Castillo 2B

Miguel Cabrera LF

Carlos Delgado 1B

Jeff Conine RF

Paul Lo Duca C

Mike Lowell 3B

Alex Gonzalez SS

Josh Beckett P

 

Milwaukee Brewers

Rickie Weeks 2B

Corey Hart CF

Lyle Overbay 1B

Carlos Lee LF

Geoff Jenkins RF

Russell Branyan 3B

Damian Miller C

J.J. Hardy SS

Chris Capuano P

[TracyThom]

The search for an effective #2 batter continues...

[markwitx]

WILDCARD UPDATE reds have taken a 4-1 lead over Dc bottom 3

[MadisonBrewerBlue]

I think Branyan was a scratch and Hall is at 3b

[nullbyte]

Cripes. Seems like it's been two weeks since MLB.TV carried the Brewers telecast. But wait.. should I be complaining?

[scoop53714]

To me Florida presents the most difficult 3 games in this homestand. Winning 2 of 3 could set up a rather nice stretch in my opinion. Florida scares me much worse than ATL, Pitt or SD. Lets hope for

 

2 from Fla

2 from Atl

2 from Pit

3 from Sd

 

9-3 would completly turn the entire season around. That has to be the goal.

[brettac1]

I think Branyan was a scratch and Hall is at 3b

 

Ugh.

[markwitx]

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/roll.gif http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/roll.gif http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/roll.gif PLAY BALL!!!http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/roll.gif http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/roll.gif http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/roll.gif

[don1481]

NOOOOOOOOO!!

 

SMILEYS!!!!!!!!

 

AHH!!!!

[markwitx]

1 out

[markwitx]

Great first inning for Cappy.

[JoeH33]

Wow great start for Cappy