9/13/05 Brewers (Cappy) @ D-Backs (Vazquez) 8:40 CST

[brewerjamie15]

Rookies had a hand in all four Brewers runs Sunday, and what was their reward?

 

One incredibly uncomfortable flight to Phoenix.

 

Jose Capellan, Dana Eveland, Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks returned to their lockers after Sunday's 4-2 win over the Astros and found their street clothes missing. Someone had replaced their suits with skin-tight, sleeveless tops and short-shorts from a restaurant/bar known for its great chicken wings, among other things. Perhaps dressed like Hooters Girls?

 

Capuano is already the Brewers' first 16-game winner in a dozen years, but he's aiming for more. With four scheduled starts remaining, the left-hander still has a chance to be the Brewers' first 20-game winner in 20 seasons.

Vazquez has lost his last 5 straight decisions.

 

Pitching matchup

MIL: LHP Chris Capuano

? 16-9, 3.63 ERA in 2005

? 0-0, 1.80 ERA vs. ARI in 2005

 

ARI: RHP Javier Vazquez

? 10-14, 4.74 ERA in 2005

? Has not faced MIL in 2005

 

Brady Clark has hit safely in eight straight games. ... Weeks was 1-for-10 in last week's series at Cincinnati, but he went 5-for-10 against the Astros with two doubles, a home run and five RBIs

 

Vazquez last faced the Brewers on Aug. 2, 2003. Over his last five starts against Milwaukee, he is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and just two walks in 38 innings.

[brettac1]

The C&C Outmaking Factory should help Cappy get #17. This is crazily optimistic for myself to say, but this is the series where the Brewers get over .500 and stay there.

[brewerjamie15]

but this is the series where the Brewers get over .500 and stay there.

Now you've done it.

 

hey Princehall-- sorry man, we seemed to post at the same time. I just added that whole rookie hazing thingy because I too am dressed like a Hooters Girl right now. I mean...um..er... no I'm not.

[rluzinski]

Arizona has had some AWFUL pitching:

 Series Prob. ------------- Sweep: 19.3% Win 2: 42.3% Win 1: 30.9% Swept: 7.5% 

[JoeHova]

The Brewers need at least 2 of these 3 if they want to finish .500. Tonight is almost a must win with their best pitcher going against a tomato can.

[AJAY]

I'll just be honest and get this out . . .

 

I still have serious wild card fever right now. I know our odds are slim, but this is the most excitement we have had in quite a while. My wild card fantasies are out of control right now. Yes, I am still praying for a miracle.

 

I just can't wait for this game tonight. I went crazy yesterday during the off-day. I couldn't wait to play ball again.

 

We really need to stick a fork in the Diamondbacks. Let's at least pass the Mets and Nationals.

 

GO BREWERS !!!!

 

http://ideaspot.net/mlb/NL_Central/small/brewers3-sm.gif

[markwitx]

Happy birthday Ricki Weeks. I sure bet he will have a great game tonight.

[MadisonBrewerBlue]

Series Prob.

-------------

Sweep: 19.3%

Win 2: 42.3%

Win 1: 30.9%

Swept: 7.5%

 

 

What are the probabilities of a 10-9 record covering the last

19 games ?

[whizkid]

That's discussed here:

 

forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=9529.topic

[rluzinski]

That link goes to a not-completely-right estimate I did before. Here's the more-right ones:

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo.gif

[Mike Felder]

So there's a 75% chance that they win at least 10 more games, correct? Or am I an idiot?

 

I like those chances. Let's go Cappy!

 

I'm curious...don't want to drag this thread off-topic, but why the huge drop off in probability between 10 wins and 11?

[rluzinski]

So there's a 75% chance that they win at least 10 more games, correct? Or am I an idiot?

 

You are correct.

 

I'm curious...don't want to drag this thread off-topic, but why the huge drop off in probability between 10 wins and 11?

 

There's a good size difference between 10-9 and 11-8, so it certainly doesn't look odd to me.

[AJAY]

Off-Topic: It wouldn't surprise me if there are very few people online tonight here in the game thread. Thunderstorms here in Milwaukee are causing the electricity to flicker. I just lost power for a few seconds and had to restart my computer.

[JoeHova]

hmm, those are better odds than I would have given. Interesting stuff. I assume you computed that by looking at the various team's home and away records? Or did you use home and away run differential? Or what? I'm curious because it looks to me like we can project:

 

@AZ 2-1

@HOU 1-2

CHI 2-1

STL 1-2

CIN 2-2

@PIT 2-1

 

which would be the required 10-9. I'm starting to be greedy and hope for 11-8 with an extra win being picked up either against STL (because they might be resting guys) or CIN (because they are bad), but it could just as easily go poorly.

[H0FFY]

Finally, the day is here. The .500 day. We will have reached the top of our mountain (called the plain to other people).

 

Actually, what will happen is that once we are out of this crevass standing on the plain, we will actually see the rolling foothills of .550 baseball. Then we will even see beyond the baby peaks of .600 baseball. Then beyond those (we can even see from the plains) we can see the mountains of the playoffs and beyond that... the heavens of the world series.

 

It is important we get our arses out of the crevass first though.

 

Today will be a great day. And I believe we will never go back under .500.

[Mike Felder]

Thanks, rluz. I guess there is a big difference between 10-9 and 11-8, it just looked like the gap there was bigger than the gaps between other numbers.

 

There is some serious wind/rain/lightning going on right now. I'm working at a soccer game right now, as they debate whether to play the varsity game (the JV game was called) due to the storm.

 

Obviously, my vote is that they call the game so I can go home and watch the Brewers!

[JoeHova]

.600 baseball is the peak Hoffy. That's a 97 win pace, that's about as good as it gets and you will usually make the playoffs with that many wins. If the Brewers can play .600 baseball for a few years, they'll have a great chance to win a world series. (for perspective, the Brewers have never played .600 baseball over the course of a season, the Milwaukee Braves did it once (1957), and the original Milwaukee Brewers never did it. So, in over 50 years of MLB in Milwaukee, we have had one team play .600 ball.)

[H0FFY]

.600 baseball is the peak Hoffy

 

Joe, did anyone ever say the phrase to you 'cant see the forest for the trees?'

[JoeHova]

Joe, did anyone ever say the phrase to you 'cant see the forest for the trees?

 

hah, you're probably right.

 

However, my point was that plenty of WS Champs have been less than .600 teams. In fact, 3 of the last 5 champs have won at a lower clip and the other 2 were barely over (and both of the .600 teams were wild cards).

[ja002h]

It's lineup time:

 Milwaukee Arizona --------- ------- Pos Player HR RBI AVG. Pos Player HR RBI AVG. --- ------ -- --- ---- --- ------ -- --- ---- CF Clark, Brady 11 43 .309 SS Clayton, Royce 2 43 .265 SS Hardy, JJ 7 44 .238 2B Green, Andy 0 1 .111 1B Overbay, Lyle 17 67 .273 LF Gonzalez, Luis 21 71 .268 LF Lee, Carlos 30 103 .274 3B Glaus, Troy 34 91 .267 RF Jenkins, Geoff 21 77 .288 1B Jackson, Conor 2 8 .220 3B Hall, Bill 16 55 .274 RF Tracy, Chad 22 55 .291 2B Weeks, Rickie 13 40 .249 CF Terrero, Luis 4 19 .242 C Miller, Damian 8 38 .257 C Stinnett, Kelly 6 12 .286 P Capuano, Chris (16-9, 3.63) P Vazquez, Javier (10-14, 4.74)

 

Is it just me, or should you be worried when the *pitcher* has the 2nd highest BA, and #1 is batting 7th?

[JoeHova]

wow, the D'Backs lineup is terrible. However, is Russ ever going to get to play again? He could rake a guy like Vazquez.

[AJOHNSON104]

I assume that they do their best to keep pictures of the hazing secret, but there has to be some out there somewhere. Who do you think would look worst (or best if you prefer) as a Hooter's girl, my bet is on Prince being hilarious looking. Maybe one of you computer wizzes could photo shop an example.

[AJAY]

Troy Glaus is swinging a good bat lately. He has about 4 homeruns in the last 5 games. It wouldn't be surprising if the Brewers pitch around him.

[rluzinski]

I assume you computed that by looking at the various team's home and away records? Or did you use home and away run differential?

 

I use the the runs scored and given up for the Brewers and opponents to calculate expected winning%. I then use the log5 equation outlined HERE. I then ran a simulation of the rest of the season 10,000, using the probabilites of winning each game that I had previously calculated.

[brewers19]

MLB.com has Gameday going for the Sounds v. Rainiers game, pretty cool. Although, Nashville is down 2-1 after 3.5 innings.

 

EDIT: Tony Zuniga and Nelson Cruz go back-to-back; 3-2 Sounds!!!

 

EDIT2: Mike Rivera gets in on the fun; make that back-to-back-to-back homers and 4-2 Sounds.