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9/26/05 Reds (R.Ortiz) @ Crew (Ohka) 6:35 CST


smbrewersfan15
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Yup, I remember '82, and I also remember '92, the last year when games this late in the season meant something. It is a great feeling tuning in every night knowing that your favorite team is playing for something. You can tell watching them tonight that they're playing for something extra, and I can't wait to start watching them play when they're really playing for something. Thinking about it, it's kind of sad that we're on the edge of our seats waiting & hoping they can finish at or above .500, but hey, I'll take it.

 

Before '92 though there were a stretch of years in the late-90s that definitely kept people's interest late into the season. Even if they don't accomplish the .500 season or even a winning season, I will still be very happy with the accomplishments this team has made this year. Expectations will be even higher going into 2006.

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I was living in NY in 82 and remember Baltimore sweeping the Yankees 5 straight in Sept. The Brewers went 22-11 or so down the stretch but Baltimore went something like 27-5, kind of the opposite of the Padres/Giants "race" this year. They closed with 4 in Baltimore, Friday was a DH to make up a game from June that ended 2-2 (I think the 2d run for Baltimore in that game scored when Simmons rolled the ball back to Vuckovich thinking there were 3 outs when there were 2 and the run came in from 3d), and I went down to Baltimore to see them blown out in both. The next 2 games were on TV everywhere, although after the Brewers got through the 8th of the clincher up 5-2 thanks to a sliding catch in the corner by Oglivie they cut away to another game and we all missed the 5 run 9th. Nedli's HR was in Fenway the game before the O's series started to put them up 4 with 4 to play. In an earlier game in Fenway Oglivie hit a dong with 2 out in the 9th to tie up a game 2-2 and the Brews won in 11; Vuckovich went all 11 I think with over 160 pitches and was never the same afterwards. In the series with the O's in County Stadium that Sept. the O's got 4 in the top of the 1st in the 1st game, Molly and Yount came up in the bottom of the inning and it was 4-2 after 2 batters. The Brewers won 15-6 and it looked like it was over but the O's won the next 2 and every game after that counted.

 

Last meaningful game in Sept. was in 92, they were 2 down with 3 to play and tied up Oakland in the 9th of the Fri. night game then won in 10 to hang in there but Toronto won that night and the next day to close it out.

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[ But Geez does Hall get a shot at the 3rd Base Spot Full time in 2006 ]

 

Well, at the minimum, I think he's handed the right-half of the platoon (where he has a .929 OPS)...

 

Here's my breakdown for 2006:

 

Hall gets 100% of starts against lefties at 3B... Hall gets intermittant starts at SS and 2B to spell Hardy & Weeks when facing righties...

 

I like Billy a lot, in the way he doesn't seem to mind shifting around the diamond (at least his stats say he doesn't mind). So while I think Billy would be better than most 3B's on the market this offseason, I still don't think there's anything wrong with utilizing Branyan's strength (assuming he's healthy) vs. RHP, and Hall's strength (his flexibility).

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I would like to believe that the split at 3rd base would be more like this:

 

Hall 100% vs lefties and 50% vs righties

Branyan 50% vs righties

 

Branyan has done nothing IMO to earn a the bulk of starts vs righties. His ops looks good, I'll give you that. But, every time he has a hang nail, he can't play. Plus, he still strikes out way too much, even vs righties (36.3 percent of the time vs righties, something like 65 percent vs lefties).

 

If Billy Hall is going to get 400-500 ABs, the bulk of those are going to come as a 3rd baseman. He's going to need around 100 starts at 3rd (and another 10-15 each at SS and 2B). And he's earned the right to play a good share vs righties with his .800 ops, .279 avg, and 14 of his 17 HRs coming vs righties.

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[ But, every time he has a hang nail, he can't play. ]

 

Don't you think that's a bit of an exaggeration? He messed up his shoulder.

 

For the sake of this argument, his K rate against lefties is irrelevant, given the fact that I made no allusions to him starting against a single lefty (or even getting a single at-bat against a lefty).

 

And Bill Hall has struck out in 21.2% of his at-bats this year... I don't think the difference between the two (36.3%-21.2%) warrants as much grief as Branyan gets.

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For the sake of this argument, his K rate against lefties is irrelevant, given the fact that I made no allusions to him starting against a single lefty (or even getting a single at-bat against a lefty).

 

Agreed. The reason I threw that in there is I thought it was an interesting stat - I didn't realize he was THAT bad vs lefties.

 

And Bill Hall has struck out in 21.2% of his at-bats this year... I don't think the difference between the two (36.3%-21.2%) warrants as much grief as Branyan gets.

 

Over the course of 400 at bats, that's 61 more K's for Russ. That's pretty significant.

 

But, the main point is that it would be a huge disappointment (for me) to watch Russ play the bulk of the time vs righties, when Billy Hall has clearly earned the 3rd base job (barring a FA move, which is probably unlikely). Hall's biggest value is as a utility man, so certainly he should split some time with Branyan at 3rd and pick up games at SS and 2B. But if Branyan gets more starts at 3rd than Hall, that's a shame IMO. Hardy and Weeks probably won't sit more than 10-15 games if healthy, so there aren't many extra games for Hall to pick up at other positions.

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[ Over the course of 400 at bats, that's 61 more K's for Russ. That's pretty significant. ]

 

I guess that comes down to on what side of the religious debate you find yourself on regarding exactly how much of a detriment K's are. So, we'll leave it at that as I understand your position.

 

[ But, the main point is that it would be a huge disappointment (for me) to watch Russ play the bulk of the time vs righties, when Billy Hall has clearly earned the 3rd base job (barring a FA move, which is probably unlikely). Hall's biggest value is as a utility man, so certainly he should split some time with Branyan at 3rd and pick up games at SS and 2B. But if Branyan gets more starts at 3rd than Hall, that's a shame IMO. Hardy and Weeks probably won't sit more than 10-15 games if healthy, so there aren't many extra games for Hall to pick up at other positions. ]

 

Also, I guess we differ on if Hall has earned the starting 3B job. If I didn't think there was such a strong platoon candidate, I would certainly agree with you... but I don't mind at all if Hall gets starts vs. righties at 3B if Russell's health isn't 100% or if he's on a cold streak.

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