Why is the jump to AA considered the toughest?

[Brily0204]

I have frequently heard (and read) that the toughest jump for a minor league player is from A+ ball to AA, but I do not think that I have ever heard (or read) a good explanation for why that is. I understand that the leap to AAA is less traumatic because so many AAA players are not hot prospects but are instead spare part-type players: the R. A. Dickeys and Jose Maciases who can fill out a roster and sub at the MLB level without hurting their development. But why is the jump to AA considered harder than the jump from A to A+? Or from R+ to A, which is where I notice that a lot of college hitters flame out (e.g., Josh Brady, Tommy Carrow).

 

Thanks for any help that anybody can offer!

 

Tim

[dadofandrew]

Honestly, I have no idea if it is, it's a bit of a cliche. However, there are about 5K minor leaguers, and only about 1500 at AA or above, and as you mentioned, many of them are low ceiling vets hoping for one more season, or month, in the bigs. So, it would seem to make sense this is the level many prospects struggle at.

[crackley]

ask will inman. he may know.

 

man, i hope he starts pitching better soon!

[Boy Jeenius]

I think Al has it. It's where you seperate the men from the boys - literally. Lot's of guys in AA who are 26, 27 and have had a cup of coffee, some real strong roster filler types like Joe Dillon, or are someone like Grant Balfour who are rehabbing from major surgery. It's where you find rosters full of guys who have the experience to know how to beat you just by being smarter.

[Brily0204]

Thanks for your responses.

Boy Jeenius: If that is the case, wouldn't the jump to AAA be the toughest? That would be where the hot 23-year-old prospect who has always gotten by on superior talent and tools runs into the wily veteran with big league experience. That difference in level of experience is perhaps more pronounced than any place after R+ ball, where highly-drafted players with 3-4 years of college experience (e.g., Cole Gillespie, Chris Errecart) often compete against 18- or 19-year kids. This difference is especially pronounced when Helena plays a team such as Missoula or Casper, whose parent clubs have no AZL or GCL team and therefore supply them with very young squads. It seems logical that a 22-year-old with 3-4 years of big-time college experience would feast in such an environment and then struggle more in A-ball and above where the field is more level . (Hence my surprise that Chuck Caufield, a 39th-rounder in 2006, is doing as well in West Virginia as he did in rookie ball.) But why, then, is AA so frequently picked out as the true proving ground?

 

--Is it, as suggested above, simply the result of funneling? AA is the place with the greatest number of prospects with the least roster filler?

 

--Is it because we are quite logically drawn to really young prospects, like Inman, who are competing in AA against players several years older than they are?

 

--Or is "the jump to AA is the toughest" just something that people have repeated for so long without their being any real validity to it.

 

Sorry if I am rambling in only my, what, 6th post. It's like 95 degrees down here, and typing with the air conditioning blowing on me seems like the best course today.

 

Tim

[Boy Jeenius]

It does not appear the the gap between AA and AAA is as severe as between A+ and AA. Big clubs have had 2 to 3 years of low minors to determine if a guy is truly a prospect or not. They add 30 to 40 new prospects a year. Non-prospects generally don't get invited to AA. Maybe that's why the big gap. AA seems to be different from AAA only because there is where you'll find the kids making their first "big jump".

[TheCrew07]

I view AA like this...

 

With 2 levels of rookie ball, and 2 levels of A ball, everyone gets funnelled to AA. From there on out the progression is linear, think of it like a pyramid. Each team only has one AA team and one AAA team. If you think about each year's draftees, you only have the potential for 1/4 of your roster of drafteesto make AA. For the most part if someone succeeds at AA, they'll succeed at AAA, as it's basically the same crop of kids moving up from that point on. After you mix in your minor league vets and rehabbing MLB players the competition gets pretty stiff to face. To me, AA is the first true test, succeed there, and chances are one day you'll be a major leaguer, even if just briefly.

 

I

[obobo55]

I know nothing.

 

From what I have heard and read, pitchers can get away with throwing mainly their fastball in single A. Once you get to AA, the hitters can hit those "dominating" 90+ pitches for the most part. Then it becomes a matter of your skill with the more deceptive pitches.

 

For a pitcher, he has to master not tipping his pitches. The fastball and change-up need to look the same to the batter. Batters now see a steady supply of off-speed stuff, they need to be able to capitalize on those too.

 

What bothers me is the guys like Hendrickson. His curve was a incredible pitch. I'm not sure if he got his K's in AAA swinging or looking on that pitch, but in the bigs they would just let it drop low. Was that a case of the smaller strike zone in MLB, or just that much vetter pitch recognition by the better hitters?

[LouisEly]

TheCrew got it. There are about twice as many A ball teams as AA (and I think some teams like the Yankees have three A ball teams). So at best only the top half of A ball players make it to AA; plus add in the career minor leaguers/roster fillers/major league rehab stints, and that means only the top 1/3 or so of A ball players make it to AA. At every other level there are the same number of teams from one level to the next (rookie to A ball; AA to AAA; AAA to majors), except A to AA.

 

A+ isn't really that much different from A ball. Many top prospects go right from low A to AA (Fielder, Gwynn, Weeks, Sheets, Sarfate, Rottino all skipped A+; Hardy and Hart skipped low A). Top picks often start at low A, and if they tear that up go straight to AA; high school players who tear up rookie ball sometimes go straight to A+ and skip low A. Usually the top prospects skip one level of A and/or spend half the season at low A and the other half at A+.