Power 50 for June Posted

[IheartRYount]

Is it on the way today? I thought we were getting it before the draft?

[Mass Haas]

Technically, it's still before the draft, right?

 

Patience, thanks....

 

UPDATE: You'll have a new P50 to digest before you go to bed tonight, but it won't be online until mid-late evening Thursday.

 

Sorry for the delay, your dedication to and interest in the P50 is both overwhelming and appreciated.

[Mass Haas]

She's up in all her glory, please enjoy and feel free to comment.

 

Thanks for reading...

[TheCrew07]

Awesome job as usual.

 

Jones gone from the 50, Nelson nearing the bottom... my first power 50 memories turned out to be nothing but a pipe dream. Ohh how the mighty have fallen.

[wibadgers23]

Not surprised that Darren Ford made the biggest jump at 10 spots. Also nice to see Brewer at #9. I've been pleasantly surprised by his offensive production this year. As for his defense, well, that's another story...

[aintbize]

I am very disappointed with this Power 50. Agree with 1-4...Love Cole G...but he's our 5 guy? Jeffress at 8? What int he hell has he done? He's pitching in an ultra protective environment right now...WOW!

 

Glad to see Brewer at 9, but Dillard at 11? Why? How's Fermaint at 16? He has had a crappy year so far, to be kind.

 

I realize that our two "Zachs" are in totally different levels of play, but Jackson has been less than stellar and Braddock has been SICK! To that note, why is Mark Rogers in spot 20? He won't throw a ball until September...I am at a loss with the rationale.

 

I feel Sarfate has been solid...he's at a good spot. 24-33 I agree with, is the reason Periard down on the list because he in in low-A?

 

I agree that Bouche has been over-shadowed by Maldonado, but could Sollman, Salas & Welch be moved up on this list?

 

Taylor Green is ranked way too low in my opinion .

 

I guess that's what is fun about the list, I am disappointed with a few of the moves or lack there of.

 

Thanks!

[Mass Haas]

I think you're focusing on a snapshot in time (the past month), while the Power 50 considers current league (the AAA Zach vs. the low-A Zach), current production, past performance, and projected performance. It takes into account the value the Brewers perceive to have of players at time of acquisition (yes, that means draft position and bonus money), although that becomes less significant over time.

 

Others can chime in on this subject as well -- help me out http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif .

[TheCrew07]

I thought the rankings were pretty much right on the money with the exception of the DFEs, I would have thought they'd be higher, but I can live with their placement until they prove something. However, 5-10 spots at the tail end of the 50 doesn't mean all that much, it's not where they start it's where they finish.

 

I've been reading the P50 for almost 4 years now, and watching the minors since I found the site, and there are some universal truths I've learned...

 

Production at A and A+ while nice doesn't mean anymore than production in the rookie leagues.

 

AA is where the cream starts to rise to the top, I refuse to get overly excited about anyone in A+ or lower. The guys that wash out before AA never really had a chance, Brad Nelson was pretty spectacular at AA before his injury, look where he is now... I've only been paying attention for a few years and can name a ton of guys with super potential that washed out before AA or AAA, being at the higher levels means more about a player's MLB potential.

 

Very rarely will 2 people have the same opinion on a player. This why I like this current method with 3 people callaborating the best. They may be Mass' comments this time around, but the rankings are the average of all 3 people.

 

Being injured 1 time drops a top prospect down a bit, but not more than 15 spots usually. There's a reason why someone is/was a top prospect, it's prudent to give them the benefit of the doubt until they return, then the production speaks for itself.

 

While a certain people may not have their favorites ranked where they want, it's certainly nothing to get that worked up about. I would have probably slept on it before dropping a rant like the above, why are one person's opinion any more valuable than another's? It's important to remember that there's not a whole lot of fact when evaluating and ranking players, it's all pretty subjective. Just because you think it so, doesn't make it so.

[aintbize]

Mass:

 

You are #1 on my list of contributors.

 

Rogers is a stud, 1st round pick. I have talked to Tony Blengino at length about Rogers for the last couple of years...but how does he maintain that position?

 

I put my arguments out there for others to respond to. Not to be a hammer, but I am looking at last year & this year (including draft pos & $$). However, for a team that prides itself for the no longer existent DFE rule...we have to consider those guys that should have been 1-5 round picks, IF they prove themselves and I think you'll agree we have a few of them to consider. That's how I made my arguments. This is all we have is a few short years to analyze these kids...no? Thanks for your insight.

[aintbize]

The Crew is right, sleeping on this would probably have been prudent, yet in life, every point needs a counter point.

 

I don't think my suggestions and points are off the charts, but just one persons opinion.

 

I welcome everyone's opinions. That's why we are here.

 

We are on the same team!

[pogokat]

your going to see a lot of movement this month and next because we are all getting a hang on our thoughts vs the old list of toby..

 

we've all got different views on prospects...for example, mass really likes marino salas...i think andy bouchie is the real deal...i also had taylor green higher and andy lefave on the list, but i have taken a long look at the WV staff, so my thoughts are probably biased...i got to watch last years team quite a bit as well, so i give those guys the benefit of the doubt...

 

jeffress is probably still rated too low...baseball america had him ranked 4th, we have him 8th...he was last years top pick and he effortlessly throws in the mid 90's...he is the only guy currently playing that can do this...hopefully rogers will be able to when he returns, but i doubt anyone could ever call his pitching effortless...

 

that said, mass had it right...you are going to see the guys with the highest potential and results ranked the highest...followed by a combination of stuff and potential...the guys at the bottom of the list are almost all one or the other..for example--steve sollmann projects as a backup infielder...but he's been really good in the minors, so he's ranked...

 

taylor green is a total mystery...it would be very fickle to make him a top 10 prospect based on one month...what if he returns to the level he played at in 2006? then he's not top 10 at all...

 

if a player is truly a top prospect, he will advance on the list...in general, toby always had it right...the guys a the top of the list are very close to the majors...thats good...

 

the reason the brewers are better than in years past has a lot to do with the fact that the guys at the top of the list are contributing or close to it..yo, braun, even inman...

 

the reason taylor green and mike brantley aren't in the top 10 is because they are very far away and lots can happen...the demise of mike jones and brad nelsons prospectdom clearly shows what can happen between low a and the majors...

 

anyway, theres a lot behind everything in this list...we each debate for hours where to rank the prospects...and sometimes we debate with each other---they really like luis ramirez---but the list is very, very, very thoughful...

[aintbize]

Thanks POGOKAT.

 

I know this is a tough job and I hear what you guys are saying. But I thought this was forum to speak our minds and I did as I mentioned.

 

Part of disseminating our personal opinions is taking in all of the other opinions. I don't think there is anything wrong with that and in fact, I am open enough to take all of your advice under consideration.

 

I view this forum as a highly sophisticated collection of minor league experts. My provocative opinions are mine. Your responses make me more educated as I hope sometimes my input can affect yours.

 

I think you guys are all great, but I feel comfortable enough to speak from the heart. I may not be aligned with the whole everyday...but that's what is so cool about this forum.

 

Please forgive me if I have ruffled your feathers, but I think this is healthy debate, no?

[Boy Jeenius]

Really good stuff. The placements and movement on the top 20 to 25 is very well thought out. Lots of hard work here - thanks.

 

I still have a tough time justifying kids who have yet to play an inning being listed over kids who have already put up more than decent numbers like Wendte, LeFave, and Caufield, or even the Knucklescraper(Shanks). I read about Seidel and 3 DFE's on the Power 50 the same night after I listen to (not listed) Travis Wendte (4-0, 3.23) throw 4 perfect innings with (5 strikeouts) of relief tonight in tonight's WV pennant clincher, or (not listed) Andrew LaFave's(.323) 4th hit of the game being a game clinching 3 run HR. I just have a tough time figuring that out (though I have been told I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed).

 

I freely admit that you're probably correct in many of those assesments. I too am very excited about those same kids' chances. But my coaches taught me when I was a little boy that there's those that say they are big game hunters, and there's those that actually have skins on the wall. I did not know what they meant then, but I think I do now.

 

Okay, I've had my rant. I know the Power 50 is meant to spur discussion, but if I have disrespected BFN and it's fine staff of contributors in any way, I sincerely apologize. Blast away.

[DHonks]

well done fellas. Although I think it should no longer be linked to a page entitled Toby's Power 50. Perhaps "the brewerfan power 50, formerly brought to you by Toby"

 

Still well done. Toby's legacy lives on.

 

Yes, I realize Toby is alive and well, so I don't mean those to sound like he has passed on.

[pogokat]

Quote:

---

Please forgive me if I have ruffled your feathers, but I think this is healthy debate, no?

---

 

heck no...part of what makes this place fun is civil discussion...please question our motive...i don;t think you learn unless you really consider your opinions...by forcing me to ask myself "why is hernan irribarren ranked so high" i really think about it..

 

please continue!

[wvpowerblkwel]

Guys...I think you did a fantastic job. Reading all the discussion above, I realize we all only see and follow those we know and are familiar with. I think about the only way any of us could contribute / improve upon what you have done, is to just add names to the end of our posts of guys we feel might be deserving of a harder look before next P50. For instance, I'm "stuck" here in Charleston watching this thing that one of our local sportswriters commented on the "silly nickname" (which I think for 2007 is a fantastic nickname) and I think my NEXT guys to watch would be Chuckie Caufield and EJ Shanks. These guys are fantastic and you guys did one heckuva job!

[Mass Haas]

I read about Seidel and 3 DFE's on the Power 50 the same night after I listen to (not listed) Travis Wendte (4-0, 3.23) throw 4 perfect innings with (5 strikeouts) of relief tonight in tonight's WV pennant clincher, or (not listed) Andrew LaFave's(.323) 4th hit of the game being a game clinching 3 run HR. I just have a tough time figuring that out (though I have been told I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed).

 

Nobody in this thread has posted rudely or without passion on their opinions, please don't feel badly about that -- no apologies necessary.

 

It's great that Travis Wendte can feel great about his performance last night and can celebrate that Power win. That being said, he'll be 25 in November, and he's neither starting nor closing in low-A ball. He'll likely move up the chain, at least a bit (and hey, we hope a lot more than that --- it'll mean he's earned it), but you simply have to place those factors in context when reviewing the Power 50.

 

Lefave, an undrafted free agent, homered on Opening Day and has been more than solid since, but is in a similar situation, although as pogokat said above, was listed on his ballot.

[Crewin06]

Great job guys.

 

I love going down the list, good comments on everyone.

 

One humble request though.

 

If it is possible, could you guys update the players' I.D.s.

 

I like clicking into the player and looking at their 2007 stats and age and looking at why they are ranked so high or low.

 

I know if I put a little effort into it I can just go to the Brewers site and look at their 2007 stats which I do now. I just like it more if it is all in one place.

 

It's not a big deal if it's not done. Just a little request.

 

Great work, the Power 50 is always fun to read through.

[Boy Jeenius]

Mass, I really don't disagree with the placements. like I said I'm excited about those kids too. I've just been around too long to not have seen hundreds of wunderkinds who looked great on paper and scouting reports coming in and look like they never belonged at all when they limp away in a year or so. I'd just prefer to actually see an inning or two in the pros to see if they actually belong, rather than simply handing them a spot in the most important and revered list in all of sports - the BFN Power 50.

[Mass Haas]

If it is possible, could you guys update the players' I.D.s.

 

I like clicking into the player and looking at their 2007 stats and age and looking at why they are ranked so high or low.

 

This is on Brian's to-do list -- he has to work some of that behind-the-scenes magic, please understand if it may be a little while, thanks.

[gregmag]

I echo everybody's thanks and praises to the troika o' fun. It's a very well-conceived list, and I continue to learn a ton from all three of you. That said, I'm going to try to develop my most immediate beef, for the sake of discussion:

 

How can you rate Charlie Fermaint ahead of Mike Brantley?

 

Fermaint is 19 months older than Brantley and one level ahead of him, so Brantley has a slight age/level advantage.

 

Fermaint put up a .740 OPS at R, .856 at R+ (greatly helped by a brief repeat), .743 at A, and .741 at A+ last year.

 

Brantley put up an .817 at R, .807 in a miniscule sample at R+, and .741 at A last year. Thus, basic performance per level has been pretty close after Brantley's substantial advantage at R ball.

 

Fermaint has flashed both power and speed, but not dramatically. He stole 27 bases at Brevard last year but was caught 14 times. He slugged .744 when he got to repeat R+, but then at A he slugged .442; those were his highest SLG totals at any season/level. Everyone says his CF defense is superb, and I believe them.

 

Brantley's strike zone judgment is off the charts for a player his age. He has walked more than he has struck out at every level, and he has never hit below .300. I don't know much about his defense, but I hear a lot about his athleticism, and I assume he's on track to develop into a solid MLB CF.

 

Okay -- all of that information is before this year. Based on that, I would have rated Fermaint slightly ahead of Brantley. He was a year further along, so he had proved more. His raw power and speed skills were more intriguing, even though Brantley looked like a more polished hitter. It wasn't a blowout by any means, but if I could have kept only one of those players, I would have taken Fermaint by a very close margin.

 

Then we get to this year, when both guys are (probably unfairly) repeating their levels. We all know what's happened to Fermaint. What I would emphasize about Brantley is that he has added both line drive power and efficient speed to his game, at an age where we would expect the power, at least, to be a real development and not a fluke. His one demerit is that he's playing 1B, but I suspect Darren Ford would beat out Fermaint for CF playing time too. (If I'm wrong about this -- if Brantley really doesn't project as a CF or at least a plus defensive LF -- that's a big strike against him). This season's sample sizes are meaningful: Fermaint has about 175 PA this year, Brantley about 250.

 

Now, I can still see a tenuous argument for preferring Fermaint. He still has more intriguing tools, and there's his CF defense. But the tools have to translate into performance at some point, he has never really shown great progress, and this year he has crashed and burned. I certainly can't see placing Fermaint eight spots above Brantley. I don't think the margin was that wide at the end of last year; it can't possibly be that wide now. Brantley has never regressed in any facet of his game, and he is now adding important attributes. For me, he's right there with Darren Ford and Lorenzo Cain; Fermaint is a significant step behind them.

 

Thanks again for all your hard work, guys.

 

Greg.

[Crewin06]

Quote:

---

This is on Brian's to-do list -- he has to work some of that behind-the-scenes magic, please understand if it may be a little while, thanks.

---

 

No problem I totally understand. Just thought I would throw it out there as a suggestion. I kind of figured you guys were working on it but didn't know for sure if it was a time constraint or just a random oversight.

 

I appreciate all the time and effort you guys put into it.

 

Now the quest for the next one begins with all the new players that will be added to the power 50. How many of the newbies will be on and where will they land?

 

The next one should be just as entertaining as this one is to read.

[Mass Haas]

gregmag1, check out the Transaction Thread re: Brantley / Fermaint. Spot on, I'd say you were.

 

We dropped Charlie six spots, a pretty precipitous drop for a player that close to the top of the rankings. Sure seems we could have used your specific insights on those two in our Power 50 huddle this month.

 

Good going!

[SoCalBrewfan]

Good discussion by all, and I agree that no one should be reticent about stating their opinions. What is nice is that people are arguing things without being personal. (If only every thread was this way!)

 

Fermaint and Brantley is a tough call IMO. There's a very legitimate question of how much you should change your perceptions after a month or two of baseball. For young players like these guys, you have to ask if you're seeing a new level of performance or a fluctuation. Fermaint was a top fifteen or so guy before the season, and Brantley was lower on the list...but it does seem like Brantley has improved his skill set and has some serious growth potential at this point, while Fermaint has serious struggles with plate discipline. But for all that, even with a bit of a power spike Brantley has all of two HR in over 750 pro AB, and it remains to be seen if he'll have enough power to survive...is he Tony Gwynn Junior Junior? And it's still relevant to note that Fermaint's tools seem to be more highly regarded, though his instincts seem to be trailing the tools.

 

To me, any power 50 ranking has a +/- with it, and I'd say these guys both have large uncertainties right now. If they continue on their current trajectories, it's pretty clear that their rankings will be reversed (at the very least).

[DHonks]

But for all that, even with a bit of a power spike Brantley has all of two HR in over 750 pro AB, and it remains to be seen if he'll have enough power to survive...is he Tony Gwynn Junior Junior?

 

He's hitting so well at such a young age, I'd compare him more to Tony Gwynnn than Tony jr