Is it possible for Brewer pitchers to survive High Desert?

[MassBrew]

Considering the struggles of the High Desert pitching staff this year, and the fact that much was made of Mike Jones bypassing Adelanto this year on his way to Huntsville, I thought a little analysis might be worthwhile.

 

Who survives High Desert and why?

 

Here are some facts:

 

The Brewers are in their third year of the High Desert affiliation, with at least one more to go (so 2001-2003 thus far).

 

There are currently eight pitchers (a small number) who were Brewer farmhands that had significant innings at High Desert and have since moved on to AA / AAA.

 

Each of these eight pitchers have to be currently considered "successful" in their current AA / AAA roles, to varying degrees. But none have flamed out at AA or higher, so graduating from the "Desert" does say something about the accomplishment.

 

Once a Brewer pitcher has a season (or less) of success at High Desert, the Brewers waste no time in bumping them up. Only one has been asked to "repeat" -- we'll get to him in a bit...

 

Here's your list of successful Maverick graduates:

 

RHP Ben Hendrickson, 2002, 2.55 ERA, 14 games (all starts), 63.1 IP, 64 H, 20 BB, 86 K, 4 HR

 

RHP Paul Stewart, 2001, 5.16 ERA, 28 games (27 starts), 151.2 IP, 169 H, 64 BB, 127 K, 23 HR

 

RHP David Pember, 2001, 4.82 ERA, 20 games (all starts), 121.1 IP, 135 H, 35 BB, 96 K, 12 HR

 

LHP Luis Martinez, 2001, 5.19 ERA, 22 games (all starts), 112.1 IP, 112 H, 64 BB, 121 K, 9 HR

 

RHP Matt Parker, 2001, 4.30 ERA, 28 games (all starts), 161.0 IP, 167 H, 67 BB, 134 K, 17 HR

 

RHP Matt Childers, 2001, 6.44 ERA, 20 games (all starts), 117.1 IP, 155 H, 29 BB, 76 K, 19 HR

 

RHP Roberto Giron, 2001, 3.27 ERA, 45 games (all in relief), 63.1 IP, 64 H, 20 BB, 86 K, 4 HR

 

RHP Ryan Miller, 2002, 5.11 ERA, 36 games (nine starts), 107.1 IP, 106 H, 57 BB, 100 K, 12 HR

 

LHP *Pete Smart, 2002, 5.10 ERA, 29 games (all starts), 180 IP, 212 H, 59 BB, 116 K

 

Observations:

 

Ben Hendrickson's half-season really stands out in retrospect. Even better than perhaps the Mavericks' finest pitching graduate all-time, the Marlins' Brad Penny.

 

Matt Parker's 2001 season kicked butt, too, and it's still a shame he's been relegated to swing man duty ever since.

 

Pete Smart, now injured, was pretty much screwed over when asked to repeat at high-A, at age 25, this spring.

 

The folks in Adelanto are probably looking back on that first-year Brewer 2001 staff as gosh darn solid right about now. You had some horses on that team, dealing with the elements pretty well.

 

Matt Childers' move to late relief has earned him quite a bit of 40-man roster time now. Prior to that, K/IP and H/IP ratios were scary ugly, though.

 

Let's look at the four main guys promoted from Beloit for 2003 we highlighted in our minor league preview, and see how they're dealing with High Desert at the midway point...

 

RHP Dan Hall, 6.50 ERA, 14 games (all starts), 70.2 IP, 89 H, 26 BB, 51 K, 12 HR

 

RHP Dan Kolb, 5.65 ERA, 14 games (all starts), 78 IP, 90 H, 29 BB, 58 K, 13 HR

 

RHP Chris Saenz, 7.11 ERA, 14 games (all starts), 63.1 IP, 71 H, 29 BB, 73 K, 13 HR

 

RHP Tony Stavros, 5.52 ERA, 23 games (one start), 45.2 IP, 58 H, 22 BB, 52 K, 6 HR

 

Observations:

 

Well, let's see. Despite the highest ERA, Saenz has by far the best K/IP ratio, and has a slightly better H/IP ratio. But it's also time for these guys to step up their games, as none is approaching the "tough-it-out" numbers attained by Pember, Parker, Stewart, Martinez, and Miller during their tenures.

 

Regardless, two, three, maybe all four of the above mentioned will probably see Huntsville some time in 2004, but it might be almost by default.

 

I think it's important to mention that the four pitchers above, who were to be counted on so highly this year, were 15th, 24th, 28th, and undrafted round players, respectively. They're getting their chances because top-ten round picks like J.M. Gold, Jon Steitz, Dane Artman, Eric Henderson, Judd Richardson, Dustin Lansford, Gerry Oakes, Brian Nielsen, have all flamed out or can't stay healthy or both.

 

Final note:

 

All said and done, not sure what I accomplished except to say that let's get Hendrickson healthy and that the 2001 Maverick staff deserves more credit than what we give it.

 

I also think that this thread will serve us eventually down the road, when names like Parra, Wilhelmsen, Sarfate, and Housman hit California. As I've mentioned before, they can't possibly jump all those guys, can they?

 

Anyway, thanks for playing along...

 

-- Jim

[batman]

Great post... it definitely will be useful over the long-term when evaluating HD pitchers. I'm not sure what to think about promoting low-A pitchers directly to Huntsvile... I'm kind of hoping that Manny Parra and perhaps Wilhelmson get sent to HD this year so that they can start in Huntsville next year. I can't believe that spending an entire year in High Desert can be good for a pitcher... it might teach you to become a ground ball pitcher but it can also force to you press and injure yourself. It must be like heaven when a guy goes to the muggy air of Huntsville after spending any amount of time in the desert...

 

We'll have to see what the Melvin administration decides... I'm sure it's something they've had to think about. Did Texas have a team in the Cal League when Doug was GM?

 

Anyway, thanks again for the post... it's quite intriguing.

 

~Bill

[colbyjack]

Nice post MB.

 

I've always been a firm believer that good players will enjoy success at any level, no matter what the circumstances, if they're going to succeed later on. Again, it's all about making adjustments. So, if we expect guys like Parra, Sarfate, Wilhelmsen & others to succeed, why not use every level in our organization? As happy as I am to see Mike Jones pitching well at AA, part of me is concerned that the organization didn't want him stepping foot in High Desert. Even if that was only 1% of the decision to have Jones skip A+, we really should get rid of High Desert as an affiliate (with all due respect to the Mavericks organization).

 

If a few of Beloit's starters do get bumped up, I'd really like to see how that High Desert team fares in the 2nd half. I personally think they could turn their season completely around.