Can Brad Nelson help the Brewers?

[gregmag]

Nobody seems to have talked about Brad Nelson in quite a while, and my sense is that we all gave up on him as a prospect some time ago. He has dropped to 41st in the Power 50. His nice game today, however, serves as a reminder that he has put together a solid season at AAA. It feels like he has been around forever, but he's only 24.

 

I'm wondering whether anyone thinks Nelson can help the Brewers -- as a player, not as trade bait -- next year or even this year. He's a lefty with fairly strong platoon splits; we're probably going to lose Jenkins; Nelson is arguably the same kind of hitter. On the other hand, I've never heard anything good about Brad's defense in LF, so I assume there's nothing good to say; his K/BB ratio is pretty poor; and he's repeating his level.

 

Maybe, in light of recent events, a useful starting point for comparison is Gabe Gross. What reasons do we have to think that Nelson could, or could not, do Gross' job off the bench better than Gross has done it (not just this year, when Gabe has been snakebit, but last year)?

 

I like seeing our homegrown players succeed, but other than that I don't really have strong feelings about Nelson. It just seems like we should at least discuss whether we might be able to use a 24 year-old LH OF at AAA who's hitting with good power and is still young enough to improve.

 

Greg.

[igor67]

I'd like to think so, but I really can't considering he's 24 there's not a whole of projection left and according to BP his translated line for this year is

.235 .300 .416

 

If he could hit for better average he's got the secondary skills to be a backup type, but he'd need to hit about .270

[dadofandrew]

Gross is an athletic guy who is a solid bench guy, and would probably platoon fine. Nelson is not athletic and does not project as well.

 

I'd say his ceiling is Mark Sweeney...as is about 50 other LH OF's in AAA.

[bullox]

Maybe he's not AS athletic as Gross, but to say he's flat out not athletic? He's a professional athlete.

[joshua502000]

As far as athletism goes, I do know that he scored 50 points in a highschool basketball game. Not sure what that really means except that he is not just all thumbs. I also know that since his days as a snapper, every level he has gone to has tried to tweek his swing in different ways. Too much coaching can be a hinderance just as no coaching. I have to wonder with all that tweeking, is he thinking too much up at the plate and not just relaxing?

Also on a personal note Brad is engaged to a Wittemore Ia. woman, no word on the actually wedding date but Congrats Brad!

[Mass Haas]

Brad can be a minor league free agent at the end of the season.

 

Pretty sure he'll move on...

[DrWood]

who would you rather keep on the 40 man roster, Nelson or Nix? Seems Nelson still has a bit of a chance.

[TheCrew07]

Nelson may very well up like Dillon... once the light goes on and he puts his hitting tools together he could be something. Then again, he very well may never put it together. Anytime he's gotten hot in the last 3 years I thought he was on the verge of breaking out, and I've been wrong every time. Thankfully I kept my opinions to myself.

[brettac1]

He's a corner OF (and that may be debatable) and he hasn't really hit for power since he was in low-A ball. I know the hamate injury played a part in that. Then he picked up his walk rate, which he didn't have when he could mash.

 

I think a lot of people thought he was a better prospect than he actually was. There was a lot of heat for him because he broke the organizational RBI record, and at the time he did that there wasn't a whole lot to be excited about in the farm system.

[DHonks]

I foresee Nelson being a Graham Koonce type. When he's 28, and seems like he's been in AAA forever, he'll be hitting 30 homers. But he might never get a serious big league look.

[colbyjack]

I don't think people were wrong about him being a potential elite hitting prospect. Everyone that saw Nelson when he was in the Midwest League thought he was going to be a stud, and I heard that from quite a few different people.

 

I also don't think his prospect status had anything to do with him being the best prospect in a weak system at the time.

 

Sometimes players with a world full of talent just aren't able to put things completely together, and things for Nelson really seemed to go off track when he broke his hamate bone. Who knows, without that injury he could be part of the Brewers right now, hitting like many thought he would way back when.

 

Hopefully he still has it in him, but as Jim noted, my bet is that he's with some other organization next year.

[pg44]

Doubtful. They need a guy (or two) that can hit for average/get on base. That doesn't seem to be Nelson.

[backup catchers]

who would you rather keep on the 40 man roster, Nelson or Nix? Seems Nelson still has a bit of a chance.

 

Nix is by ar the better fielder and has put up very good numbers in the past. He has some speed and some power to go along with his superior defense. Injuries have been his problem. When you're looking at people who appear to be no more than role players versatility and defense have to factor in more.

[gregmag]

BC, I have to disagree with you about Nix. He's 26, has almost 600 major league PAs, and has a .277 OBP. That's not injury -- that's an utter inability to get on base. I understand that you aren't saying he'll develop in to a regular; you're saying that he's proved he can do a couple of things very well, and you're right. But he has also proved that he's so terrible at the single most important thing position players do that his other skills are worthless. Even a bench player can't hide a .277 OBP -- and that's his level; imagine if he had a bad year. Nelson's problem is his OBP too, but he projects at this moment to be merely awful, not horrifying.

 

Greg.

[dadofandrew]

But Nix can play CF well, and was rushed a bit, skipping AAA, or pretty much at least. Nix could easily be a 5th OF right now, while what do you see Nelson as?

[gregmag]

Nix could not be a 5th OF right now. You can't get on base 28 percent of the time and help a major league team. Even a defensive specialist has to log some plate appearances. So he was rushed? Right, and Nelson got hurt, and Dickie Thon got beaned. They are what they are, and unfortunately they don't get do-overs.

 

Right now I don't see Nelson as much better than Nix, because he would get on base maybe 30 percent of the time, which of course is still unacceptable, and play lousy defense (although he would hardly be the only LF who can't play any defense). But Nelson, unlike Nix, is young enough that some improvement is at least possible. Nelson could, maybe, if he eats his Wheaties and everything breaks right, get his OBP up to .325. With his power, that would make him useful in the right situation (which is, concededly, probably in the AL as a platoon DH).

 

Anyway, my last post wasn't about Nelson's virtues, such as they are. I was simply disagreeing with the suggestion that Nix had any value.

 

Greg.