The 2007 Arizona Fall League Thread -- LaPorta # 4 AFL propect

[wvpowerblkwel]

I'm telling you guys....I watched him here in WV, and he quite literally was a man amongst boys! I watched him one nite when he game out in the 90 degree whether in a jacket sick from a cold or the flu, and he just banged and banged that nite. I don't think he got hardly anything to hit here at all....his power is just awesome, and I think he will progress as quickly as there becomes a position for him on the big league roster!

[TooLiveBrew]

Wow, this LaPorta stuff has me all giddy!

 

It's just crazy to think what we had this season is only the beginning.

 

No kidding, sbryl. If this guy really can mash his way up to the bigs by the end of 2008, color me very impressed.

[JohnBriggs12]

One thing everyone has to remember about LaPorta. He was a drafted as a 4 year college player. Rarely do guys with top round ability play 4 years of college. So coming into pro baseball, he was more experienced and a year older than was Braun for instance (he's just a year younger than Braun, even though he was drafted 2 years later) and he plays a less demanding defensive position.

 

I really think the Brewers expect to see him next September, but also have him penciled in for 2009 as the starter in LF and that was the plan all along. They might do what they did with Braun and bring him up in latter half of May 2009 to delay arbitration, but no later than that.

 

Stetter is making a case for being part of the bullpen overhaul. That brief stint in Milwaukee may have given him a huge boost of confidence which is so important for guys who have toiled in the minors a while like Stetter.

[homer]

"Rarely do guys with top round ability play 4 years of college"

 

Didn't LaPorta have injuries that led him back for his senior year?

[zzzmanwitz]

does anyone know if there is a site that you can watch the games or listen to a broadcast? thanks.

[And That]

Mesa wins Monday, 9-3

 

A potpourri of Brewers in today's game.

 

Matt LaPorta bangs yet another extra base hit and an RBI in a 1-4 performance. Again, no strikeouts, so it looks like he's getting real, live pitches to hit. No reports yet on his defense, but he once again played left without any miscues. Matt has a Phoenix-area fall OPS of 1089 now. That's some pretty serious hitting, kids. And I can't make enough of his lack of K's. If this keeps us, AA will be the fall-back in spring training.

 

Lou Palmisano needs more ABs in this league. For a guy that could be the Brewers catcher sometime next year, the Crew's brass need to get on the horn to Mesa and get Captain Lou more work. I'm sure they could work something out. Tonight he went 0-3 with a walk (yes!) and a run scored. Only 1 K through 10 PA so far, that's somewhat encouraging. He did have a throwing error tonight. But he's a good defensive catcher, so don't worry bout that.

 

Steve Hammond started the game and gave up nothing on 2 Ks in 3 innings of work. A solid 5 IP of AFL ball, though it isn't enough to mitigate his poor AA season yet. Best of wishes to turning it around, Steve. We need pitching depth.

 

Tim Dillard continues to allow runner on base, though he hasn't allowed them in so far in the AFL. A single and a walk in 1 IP for Dillard in this one.

 

Dave Johnson is a strikeout machine in the AFL, which is a tremendous sign. When they drafted Dave a few years back, he had some questionable college stats, but evidently the Brewers saw something in him, and he's well on his way to becoming a legit relief prospect, however much of a legit relief prospect one could ever be. An unearned run on a hit and 2 K's tonight.

[colbyjack]

Steve Hammond did have a disappointing season given how successful he was in previous years. However he did have a two month stretch, June and July I believe (MiLB's stats page don't show his Huntsville splits now that the AFL season has begun), in which he was very productive, and he finished both the regular season and the playoff season on a high note.

 

So while he wasn't as good as he has been in the past, he did show flashes of being a more than competent starting pitcher, and its nice to see him pitch well so far in AZ.

 

One thing I remember about Dave Johnson when the Brewers drafted him was that he had a very good slider. His fastball velocity wasn't that great, and his college numbers as you noted Toby were never very good, but maybe he could become the next Chad Fox. I noted in another thread that given the Brewers need for competent relievers, I wouldn't be surprised to see Johnson added to the 40-man, particularly given his success in the AFL.

 

LaPorta is a monster. As everyone has noted, it is so incredibly encouraging him to see him continue to mash, and I agree that the reduced strikeout numbers are the most encouraging part of his impressive numbers. I'm still not convinced that he will begin next year above BC given past tendencies, but that is somewhat inconsequential at this point in time.

[1992casey]

However he did have a two month stretch, June and July I believe (MiLB's stats page don't show his Huntsville splits now that the AFL season has begun), in which he was very productive...

Hammond's 2007 monthly splits, courtesy minorleaguesplits.com:

 

	IP	AB	H	2B	HR	W	HP	K	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
April	31.3	135	45	10	5	7	1	29	2	0.333	0.366	0.519	0.884
May	24.7	101	31	5	6	7	0	19	0	0.307	0.349	0.574	0.923
June	27.0	104	26	4	2	10	2	23	0	0.250	0.325	0.365	0.690
July	22.7	87	23	4	1	6	0	17	3	0.264	0.309	0.345	0.653
August	27.3	113	34	8	6	11	2	21	4	0.301	0.367	0.549	0.916

 

	BABIP	WHIP	W/9	K/9	HR/9	G	L	F	P	B	U
April	0.396	1.66	2.01	8.33	1.44	50	16	35	3	4	3
May	0.329	1.54	2.55	6.93	2.19	29	16	28	9	1	3
June	0.304	1.33	3.33	7.67	0.67	38	8	28	6	1	5
July	0.319	1.28	2.38	6.75	0.40	27	12	24	8	0	4
August	0.326	1.65	3.62	6.91	1.98	38	18	30	7	0	4

[colbyjack]

Thanks casey, I did find those as minorleaguesplits is a great reference, but I was disppointed that they don't have the ER and overall ERA month-to-month. I know ERA isn't as big of a stat as it once was, but it is still the easiest way to gauge a pitcher's performance IMO.

 

The chart definitely illustrates just how dominant Hammond was during June and July, and how poor he pitched the rest of the season. I know BABIP helps give an idea of just how lucky or unlucky a pitcher may be given the number of batted balls put in play, as his BABIP for April in particularly seems really high. I'm not 100% sure of how BABIP works (isn't .300 about average?), but it would seem that he may have run into some bad luck that month in particular.

 

I'm not trying to make excuses for Hammond, but instead trying to give hope for an improved year next season.

[TooLiveBrew]

Matt has a Phoenix-area fall OPS of 1089 now. That's some pretty serious hitting, kids. And I can't make enough of his lack of K's. If this keeps us, AA will be the fall-back in spring training.

 

Wow. I'm chomping at the bit to see this guy play!

[colbyjack]

You can follow LaPorta and Heether, who started in LF and at 3B respectively, this afternoon via MiLB.com's Gameday:

 

http://www.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/y2007/gd.html?2007_10_16_msswin_perwin_1

 

The game just entered the third inning. Heether is up 2nd in the top of the 3rd, LaPorta 4th should a batter reach.

 

EDIT: A batter did indeed reach ahead of LaPorta (unfortunately not Heether, who struck out), and LaPorta answered by hitting an RBI double. The runner ahead of him (Jon Still) scored from first.

[homer]

And I can't make enough of his lack of K's. If this keeps us, AA will be the fall-back in spring training.

Way to jinx him, he K'd three times today. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks a bunch for the linkage, CJ. Unfortunately I'm at work, so hopefully there are some night games coming up.

[sbrylski]

The chart definitely illustrates just how dominant Hammond was during June and July, and how poor he pitched the rest of the season. I know BABIP helps give an idea of just how lucky or unlucky a pitcher may be given the number of batted balls put in play, as his BABIP for April in particularly seems really high. I'm not 100% sure of how BABIP works (isn't .300 about average?), but it would seem that he may have run into some bad luck that month in particular.

 

I see his HR rate as the telling split. He gave up only a slightly smaller amount of FB's, but the HR rate plummeted. His HR rate the rest of the season is really high. Could be luck, could be ballpark. In his three bad months, his HR/FB rate (largely luck), is a unlucky 18.2%. Overall, he had a 13.8% HR/FB. Major league average is usually around 11%.

 

As for BABIP, look how closely his LD's correlate with BABIP (and in turn, BA and OBP). Except April, so I'd definately say April was bad luck. Minor league BABIP's will also be a little higher because of worse defenses.

[bretsky07]

So what's the consensus on Steve? Back to Huntsville next year no matter what, or could a dominant AFL run bump him up to Nashville?

[colbyjack]

Hammond now has over 215 innings pitched at AA, and turns 26 in April. I don't see any reason for him not to be at AAA to open the 2008 season. I'm sure the Brewers would have liked for him to earn that promotion during the season this past year, and hopefully he straightens himself out this fall in a league that clearly favors offense.

[Katuluu]

Th Nashville rotation is a bit thin at the moment too. If they bring Hammond up that should lesson the urgency at trying to find minor league vets to fill out the rotation, though they will still probably need at least two.

 

And I am still leaning towards Patrick's opinion that LaPorta starts at BC next season. But I can't see him staying down there much more then two months with a mid-season call-up at the latest.

[Mass Haas]

Adam Heether 0-for-4 (three K's); Matt LaPorta 1-for-4 (RBI double, three K's); Mitch Stetter with a scoreless inning (one hit) in a mop-up 9th in a 9-1 Mesa loss -- by the way, Stetter has faced four LH batters thus far in the AFL -- he's struck out all four:

 

http://www.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l119&t=g_box&gid=2007_10_16_msswin_perwin_1

[Mass Haas]

Latest Steve Hammond journal:

 

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071016&content_id=310957&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp

 

Journal: Hammond shakes off rust

By Steve Hammond / Special to MLB.com

A 2005 sixth-round pick by the Milwaukee Brewers out of Long Beach State, Steve Hammond posted sub-3.00 ERAs in five different stops over his first two seasons in the Brewers farm system. The 25-year-old southpaw went 7-9 with a 4.69 at Double-A Huntsville in 2007, helping lead the Stars to the Southern League Championship Series. Hammond is a member of the Mesa Solar Sox.

Send Steve an email

With five games having passed, I think I have begun to settle in to my surroundings a little bit. I have seen all of my teammates play and am impressed with the amount of talent on the field every day. I have also been able to get onto the mound and knock a little bit of rust off.

Coming into this fall season, I think my idea of what to expect was a little better than most of the other players. I am one of about 20 guys who have had the opportunity to be here in Arizona before. I was invited to this league in 2005 as an injury replacement for the last three weeks, so I got a taste of what this is all about. There is a lot to be learned in an environment where over half of the players go on to play in the Major Leagues if they have not already. It really is an honor to be a part of a group like this and while I am out here I want to learn as much as I can.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/images/2007/10/01/9G3dmCN5.jpg

On the field last week I tried to make a few adjustments after my outing on Opening Day. I knew I would feel uncomfortable on the mound because it had been a few weeks since I had pitched, but I was pleased with how it turned out. I did a pretty good job of throwing the ball where I wanted to, and didn't make any mistakes over the middle of the plate where the hitters out here will make you pay in a hurry.

As a starter, you have a long time after you pitch to think about what you did and what you want to change for the next time. For me, my next outing can never come soon enough. If I pitch well, I want to get back out there and continue my success while the game seems easy. And if I make some bad pitches and get knocked around, I want a chance to redeem myself as soon as possible. It's tough to wait five or six days between games because it can be hard to keep momentum when things are going well, and also hard to get out of a rut if I'm pitching poorly. Physically, it usually takes that many days for my body to recover and get ready to take the pounding of throwing 100 pitches again, but mentally I want to get on the mound and pitch again the next day. That is just one of the challenges of being a starting pitcher, and one that I hope I am lucky enough to face for many years to come.

I received many nice emails from people all over the country and I'd like to answer a couple of them.

I had a question for you in regards to pitching left-handed and my son. My son Tyler is 10 years old and is a southpaw also. What other pitch should he work on besides a fastball and changeup at his age? How many pitching camps did you go to growing up? What is your strikeout pitch? Thank you for taking my email and hope to see you at Miller Park. -- Don

To answer your first question, Don, I don't think Tyler needs to throw anything but a fastball and changeup at his age. I see no benefit to throwing a bunch of offspeed pitches at an early age. I think it is much more important to first be able to have command of a fastball inside and outside and be able to throw a changeup for a strike before you begin to throw curveballs and possibly cause too much stress to your arm. I didn't go to very many pitching camps when I was young. I kept busy with every sport I could find when I was a kid and played baseball, football and basketball in high school. I didn't focus solely on baseball until I went to junior college. I can't say that I have one strikeout pitch. It really depends on the batter and the situation. I don't pitch for strikeouts because it usually leads to me throwing too many pitches. I would rather have the batter put the ball in play in the first two or three pitches.

First off, congrats on a nice season and good luck in Arizona. My question is: What do Minor Leaguers like you do for a place to live during the season? Promotions, the fall league, winter ball -- that can add up to a lot of places being "home." -- Kyle

Hi Kyle. Generally in the Minor Leagues everybody tries to find a roommate or two and looks for an apartment when they get to their team's city. Sometimes you can find out from guys who played there the previous year where the best places to stay are. With a Minor League salary, most of us can't afford to live the way we'd like to, but it's only for a few months so it doesn't bother me too much. There can be a lot of moving around, which makes it difficult. The year I got drafted I went from school in Long Beach, Calif. to living in Helena, Mont., Charleston, W.Va., Melbourne, Fla., and here in Phoenix in a matter of three months. Needless to say, you learn to pack light and live with just the necessities quickly.

 

 

Steve Hammond is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his first two starts for the Mesa Solar Sox this fall.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/images/2007/10/16/xzBxvPN2.jpg

[Mass Haas]

Yes, the samples are still tiny, we know:

 

Extra-base machine Matt LaPorta 2-for-5 with two doubles, two RBI in Mesa's 7-4 win -- now at .300 (9-for-30) with seven of his nine hits for extra bases. Three walks, six K's, and a 1.064 OPS. The Brewers' 2007 first-round draft pick leads the Arizona Fall League with nine RBIs in eight games.

 

Lou Palmisano's fine fall continues, on base four times, including a double, his first extra-base hit. Now at .500 (6-for-12), 3 BB's, 2 K's, 1.183 OPS. Lou looks like a likely candidate for 40-man roster inclusion at this point.

 

Steve Sollmann still looking for his first base hit, now 0-for-8 with a HBP. He played third base in this, his third AFL game:

 

http://www.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l119&t=g_box&gid=2007_10_17_msswin_scowin_1

[homer]

Just out of curiosity, does anyone have a frame of reference for how top prospects have fared in the AFL? I'm wondering how a guy like LaPorta stacks up against others that went on to the majors.

[colbyjack]

I was looking for AFL archives a week or two ago and couldn't find any. MiLB.com doesn't do a very good job archiving their stat pages, although I can't complain, since they do a pretty good job with their stats overall.

 

I can tell you that both Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks performed extremely well in the AFL the past few years on their way to being named among the league's top prospects their respective years (I want to say Weeks was second to Delmon Young the year he participated, while Braun was second to Tulowitzki IIRC the year he played). I'm not sure if that helps, but performing well in the AFL does often lead to success at higher levels, and as Steve Hammond pointed out in his AFL journal, roughly half of AFL participants do often move onto having a big-league career of some sort.

[patrickgpe]

here is a link from the jsonline article on LaPorta and Palmisano. The way he has been hitting maybe are catching WHOA SOLVVD

http://blogs.jsonline.com/brewers/archive/2007/10/18/laporta-looking-good.aspx

[Mass Haas]

Mesa wins, 6-2, Thursday afternoon

Adam Heether getting penciled in the # 3 spot again and doubles and walks in five plate appearances; Matt LaPorta, a fixture in left field and the cleanup spot, singles and walks in his five trips. Each K'd twice.

 

Dave Johnson and Tim Dillard close things out with a scoreless inning apiece. Johnson loaded the bases before wriggling out of trouble.

 

Scottsdale Top 8th

• - Pitcher Change: Dave Johnson replaces Jimmy Barthmaier.
• - Wilkin Castillo singles on a ground ball to first baseman Mark Hamilton.
• - Reid Brignac pops out to second baseman Jed Lowrie.
• - Ryan Patterson singles on a ground ball to third baseman Adam Heether. Wilkin Castillo to 2nd.
• - Mike Carp flies out to center fielder Josh Flores.
• - With Evan Longoria batting, wild pitch by Dave Johnson, Wilkin Castillo to 3rd. Ryan Patterson to 2nd.
• - Evan Longoria walks.
• - Caleb Stewart strikes out swinging.

Scottsdale Top 9th

• - Pitcher Change: Tim Dillard replaces Dave Johnson.
• - Travis Snider grounds out, second baseman Jed Lowrie to first baseman Mark Hamilton.
• - Sergio Santos singles on a ground ball to left fielder Matt LaPorta.
• - Mike Nickeas strikes out swinging.
• - Wilkin Castillo flies out to center fielder Josh Flores.

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l119&t=g_box&gid=2007_10_18_scowin_msswin_1

[soundsfan]

Wow Mitch Stetter is dominating. 9 strikeouts vs. 14 batters. Say he is making his case.