Following Inman and Garrison -- Latest: Garrison a big league New York Yankee!

[Tbadder]

The other thing we have to wait for is each player's major league career. Technically we traded Thatcher's good start in the majors for Linebrink's ugliness. I think it was a good risk.

 

I'm really only worried about Garrison because he's so young. The old guy and the midget you can keep.

[bobskube]

Let's let this go until we see either of those two guys succeed in the majors.

 

These guys could just be Henricksen and Eveland.

[TheCrew07]

X

 

I railed against the trade when it went down, and I loathe it even more now. Linebrink didn't put us in a better position to win games, not any more than Thatcher on his own would have done. I still don't buy the logic to give up 3 prospects for 25 innings... that's not solid math. I would have lived with it had the Linebrink aquisition put this team over the top, but it clearly didn't as the slide continued and we were on the outside looking in to the post season. It's very difficult to prove me the value of that trade inning by inning, let alone the 25 innings as a whole. What did Linebrink do that our other relievers weren't already doing?

 

I was wrong about Balfour, but I don't think I was wrong about Thatcher, he's been pretty oustanding at MLB so far. As I said all last year we could have solved that problem in the pen from in house, one of the AAA guys would have worked out, and Thatcher has worked out wonderfully for SD.

 

The problem as TLB noted and others have noted going all the way back to the trade forum last year was that when you have a short window for success it doesn't make sense to trade away talent that is close to the big leagues...some of it will stick and be crucial during the window. I'm not saying to mortgage the future for a couple of games here and there either, but I have trouble seeing how this particular deal helped the Crew in the short term or long term. The best case scenario for any draft pick to contribute is 3-4 years... maybe available for the last 1 or 2 years with the current core, maybe.

 

The Brewers need a yearly influx of quality young talent (cheap talent) to remain competitive. This trade effectively wiped out all of the pitching quality in the system down to A ball. Simply put, we have no pitching help from within the organization for the next couple of years. The only pitching prospect left is Pena, who I'm very high on, but it's tough for me to get excited about the system when only prospect is a relief pitcher, no matter how good he is.

[TooLiveBrew]

X --

 

No, Inman wasn't going to help in 2007. However, we found out the hard way that Thatcher was likely capable of contributing what Linebrink did.

 

Thats what we're reducing the work of Jack Z, the true savior of the franchise, to. Luck? As I showed earlier, its almost routine that he selects a quality player with picks this early. Obviously we all love Gollardo, and I know you are extremely high on Hardy. To think 1 of these 2 selections will be a stud, and the other a decent player, is just being realistic based on history. No need for luck here http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

We couldn't agree more on Zduriencik's acumen, but honestly -- yes, it does come a lot down to good luck... even with a very gifted scouting director.

The problem as...others have noted going all the way back to the trade forum last year

 

I want to emphasise the "others" part. At the time, I was really geeked about getting Linebrink, mostly because I didn't do my due diligence in checking up on him. This trade, however, taught me quite a bit about trade value of RPs. I think Garrison + Thatcher would have been a fair price for Linebrink.

[Never Outhustled]

No, Inman wasn't going to help in 2007. However, we found out the hard way that Thatcher was likely capable of contributing what Linebrink did.

If someone would have predicted Thatcher would come up and pitch like a god, we would have called him nuts. Thatcher has a 10.8 ERA this year, last year was likely a pretty big anomaly. Obviously, the scout who told Melvin Linebrink had the same stuff as always was way wrong, but without adding Linebrink, there would have been a huge hole in the pen when Villanueva moved to the rotation, if you figured Thatcher would have pitched closer to whats expected of a rookie.

 

Also, remember that Melvin stated at the time of the deal that the team had a number of pitching prospects as good as these 2. David Welch and Dereck Miller are off to a great starts too, and might have stuff that will work as good or better at the big league level.

In the end, all we will lose in this deal is our newly drafted prospects will be a couple of years behind Garrison and Inman.

 

[TheCrew07]

Well that 10 ERA is actually 9.0, but he gave up 4 runs on 3 BBs over a week ago, and that one outing ballooned his ERA to 22 for a while, he's only pitched 6 innings thus far this year, and even with that if you want to use ERA his career ERA is still 3.0.

 

I understand that the draft picks are the farther away, which is exactly the problem, there is no help from the system and the Brewers aren't ever going to be players in free agency. That one trade, for basically nothing tangible in the win column, left a gaping hole in the system at the upper levels. Assuming that these 2 draft picks are pitchers (which in all likely hood 1 will be a position player), they'd join the current crop of Bryson, Tyson, Seidel, Braddock, Periard and so on... they'd be in that same wave of prospects. There is still nothing between those guys and MLB besides Pena. I know there's no replacing a Ben Sheets, but I'd rather the Brewers not sign another Suppanesque type pitcher. I like Suppan only because he eats innings, I was hoping we'd get more for 10 mil a year, but he is what he is. The Brewers are competitive now, but every marginal player they have to overpay for will shorten this run, because the money will not available for more productive players as they reach free agency.

 

Believe me when I say that I understand you have to give value to gain value, but in this case I believe we sacrificed value for 25 innings of marginal quality. I know many people were excited by the fact that the Brewers finally made a move to improve the big club in season, but I never saw the trade that way, and I likely never will. As of I've said numerous times, I just don't see how this trade helped the franchise in the short or long term. Much will depend on how productive the 2 draft picks are, but of the 3 we traded away, 1 is already contributing at MLB, and the chances of any draft pick reaching the majors is pretty thin.

[Never Outhustled]

I understand that the draft picks are the farther away, which is exactly the problem, there is no help from the system and the Brewers aren't ever going to be players in free agency. That one trade, for basically nothing tangible in the win column, left a gaping hole in the system at the upper levels. Assuming that these 2 draft picks are pitchers (which in all likely hood 1 will be a position player), they'd join the current crop of Bryson, Tyson, Seidel, Braddock, Periard and so on... they'd be in that same wave of prospects

Those players you listed are all later round selections, why would you compare them to players picked at #35 and #54? Hardy and Gollardo were High School players picked at #46 and #56, and they spent just 3 years and 3 1/2 years in the minors. One could concur thats its possible that, even if #35 and #54 are HS selections, they could be on a similar timeline, or even faster for college players. A college selection could be in AA next year, about a year behind Inman and Garrison. Thats realistic for the #35 selection, with Jack Z making the pick.

[TheCrew07]

That's the biggest difference between us, you're satisfied with the draft selections because you have faith in Z to come back with better players in the end, I view the draft as a crap shoot, and sooner or later the Brewers are going to start getting burned again. It's a difference of opinion, time will tell of course.

With all the pitchers that flame out for various reasons, I just hate to trade away pitching prospects of any kind. It sounds dumb I suppose, but I usually pair them up in mind, and I'm happy if 1 of the 2 actually make it and pitch for the big team. Parra/Jones, Yo/Rogers, and so on.

[TooLiveBrew]

there would have been a huge hole in the pen when Villanueva moved to the rotation, if you figured Thatcher would have pitched closer to whats expected of a rookie.

 

Well, I think in terms of a balance or 'cost' analysis, given what we got from Linebrink & what we gave up, it was a very bad trade. Even if Thatcher didn't pitch as well as he did with SD, getting those 25 innings from him at average production without having to part with our most advanced pitching prospect this side of Parra would have been extremely valuable. Now this season if we lose a player for a full season, and feel that we need to add from outside the org., the trading chips we have are either way too important to the team's future (LaPorta, Parra), or very far away from proving they can fulfill even a part of their ceilings (Jeffress, Salome, etc.).

 

In the end, all we will lose in this deal is our newly drafted prospects will be a couple of years behind Garrison and Inman.

 

But that's assuming the players selected even live up to what Will & Steve have done thus far. No matter how great the scouting director/system, there are always variables at play that are totally out of anyone's control.

 

 

It sounds dumb I suppose, but I usually pair them up in mind

 

That's not dumb at all -- it really helps temper expectations. In fact, I wonder how accurate a 50% success rate is in terms of higher-ceiling pitchers... can't be that far off.

[Never Outhustled]

But that's assuming the players selected even live up to what Will & Steve have done thus far.

The players selected need to surpass whatever Will and Steve do at the Major League level. What they've done so far has not won an MLB team a single game.

 

With all the pitchers that flame out for various reasons, I just hate to trade away pitching prospects of any kind.

If pitchers flame out constantly, isn't it a good idea to trade away the ones you think have the best chance of flaming out? There seems to be an undercurrent here that already considers Garrison and Inman locks as quality MLB pitchers, and I think we are a long ways away from that becoming truth.

 

It sounds dumb I suppose, but I usually pair them up in mind, and I'm happy if 1 of the 2 actually make it and pitch for the big team. Parra/Jones, Yo/Rogers, and so on.

While this might sound even dumber, but I'd prefer we spend all of our 1 and 2nd rounders on position players. We good at that, and if we had a couple more top position player prospects, we could have traded an established young bat for an established young pitcher like Cain, Lincecome, or Garza this offseason.

[TheCrew07]

I don't recall ever claiming either was going to be a quality major leaguer, both could suffer arm injuries tomorrow and their careers be over. That's why I like pitching depth... Neugy, Gold, Rogers, Parra, Peterson, Jones, the list goes on and on.

 

Flipping positional players for pitchers is something I've always been in favor of, so I find your idea intriguing.

[TooLiveBrew]

The players selected need to surpass whatever Will and Steve do at the Major League level. What they've done so far has not won an MLB team a single game.

 

That's a tad absolutist, though -- besides, if one argues that adding Linebrink helped us win games, then the duo has done some part to help the Brewers. Imo you have to look at it in terms of likelihood, and a guy that has had success at AA like Inman is so much more likely to make the bigs than a draft pick that's never been tested beyond HS or college. Obviously with certain players the chances that they fail are small, but when you're comparing a guy with success at AA with the HS/college guy, the odds heavily favor the AA guy.

[Mass Haas]

MiLB.com Texas League Pitcher of the Week

 

Will Inman, San Antonio

2-0, 0.00 ERA, 2 G, 2 GS, 10.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 5 BB, 9 SO

Starting the season with two scoreless starts, Inman's return trip to San Antonio has started wonderfully. Both five-inning outings have come against the Texas League's newest franchise, the Northwest Arkansas Naturals, who managed just four hits against Inman in 10 innings. Right-handed hitters are having an especially hard time against Inman, batting just .107 on the season.

[tigerbrew]

Reading about Inman and Garrison in this thread is getting depressing, terrible trade so far.

[bobskube]

I dont get as excited as many of you guys do about these minor league stats. I want to see results with my favorite team, the Milwaukee Brewers. I could care less how the Nashville Sounds, Huntsville Stars, the Brevard County Manatees, West Virginia whatevers, or the Helena Brewers do. I just want to see player development.

 

As long as there are few studs developed every year, I don't care. I see that the Brewers do have an issue with starters and I know it is frustrating to see these guys doing so well for Linebrink, but I don't think we gave Sheff away for Bones here. Best possible case would maybe be both these guys become number 3s. More chance as that these guys dont turn into much. Inman is not Roy Oswalt. Garrison is not whoever people compare him to. Congrats to both on their fine stats with San Antonio...but no big deal for big picture.

 

Just my peace.

[Mass Haas]

Will Inman's ERA is still at 0.00 after three starts, but his latest effort didn't go how you'd think it might have

 

Minor league guru John Sickels was at this series

[TooLiveBrew]

Your piece sort of glosses over that a large part of player development is minor-league performance, bobskube! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I get your 'fandom' point, though.

 

 

I just about posted the same link MH did... phew! Included in Sickels's post are some "mediocre pics" (his phrasing) of Inman's delivery (does Will sport the dreaded 'Inverted W?'), here's what Sickels had to say:

 

 

"Will Inman, RHP, San Antonio: Fastball ranged from 87 to 92. Mixed in curveball, slider, and changeup. Like Hynick, he was getting squeezed on close calls but it didn't appear to annoy him quite as much as it did Hynick, at least early in the game. Gave up a long homer to Dan Carte on a hanging breaking ball. Secondary stuff was more impressive than [Tulsa SP Brandon] Hynick's."

 

Glad to hear Will has been doing so well, since that means I'll see him here in Portland all the sooner.

[Mass Haas]

Four-minute Video Interview with Will Inman, filmed after his second start earlier this season

At the link, go the blue "Video" section in the bottom left. definitely worth a watch...

[Mass Haas]

Steve Garrison didn't quite duplicate seven no-hit innings on Friday night, but he came close -- my, oh my...

 

Well, Will Inman was # 2 on the Power 50 at the time of the trade, and where would Steve Garrison be on the P50 today? Now revisit the current P50 and see how many pitchers outside of a soon-to-graduate Manny Parra are in the Top 20. OK, I'm done for today in this thread...

[Mass Haas]

Will Inman's most recent start was a quality outing that resulted in a no-decision in a San Antonio victory on Sunday.

 

Another brutal outing for Joe Thatcher in Houston Tuesday night.

[Mass Haas]

More Zeroes:

 

Steve Garrison had four shutout innings (seven K's) wiped out by rain Wednesday

 

Will Inman 5 2/3 shutout ball of his own Friday

[Mass Haas]

Finally a mis-step for Steve Garrison

[Never Outhustled]

For all the hype Garrison has gotten this year, he has a 4.50 ERA so far. The Brewers have 5 lefty starters in AA with ERAs of 3.52 or better. Sure, Garrison is younger, but that just changes his ETA, not his ceiling.

 

 

I dont get as excited as many of you guys do about these minor league stats. I want to see results with my favorite team, the Milwaukee Brewers. I could care less how the Nashville Sounds, Huntsville Stars, the Brevard County Manatees, West Virginia whatevers, or the Helena Brewers do.

 

I'd be geeked out of my gord if a pitcher like Rogers or Jeffress puts up numbers at AA like Inman has. They actually profile as quality big league pitchers, theres no questions about how there stuff will translate at the MLB level. However, those questions do remain with Inman. His AA success does nothing for the concerns of how his big curve and tendency to challenge hitters up in the zone with an average, straight fastball will fair against MLB hitters. Also, he has yet to prove he can pitch a full season without his arm wearing out.

[Mass Haas]

Will Inman allowed only one hit through six innings Wednesday before running into trouble in the 7th...

 

Box / Game Log

[Mass Haas]

Steve Garrison effective but not overpowering in his latest, a no-decision