Linebrink acquired for Inman/Garrison/Thatcher

[gregmag]

if Inman is going to get a mulligan for those bad games due to the mono

 

It's not really about "giving him a mulligan." If we were talking about whether Inman deserves a Southern League pitching award or something, then of course those games count. But the issue here is using minor league performance to predict major league performance. The (apparent) fact that Inman had mono is a pretty important part of that predictive judgment. It's useful to look at his post-mono numbers because, if that's what caused his problems, it's a genuine aberration that skews the predictive value of his stats.

 

As a lot of people have said, predictions are dicey. Of course, that's true for major leaguers too; Linebrink's peripherals have fallen off enough to raise legitimate concerns. But of course Geno's right to say that Linebrink very well could recover his form. The thing is, there are also pretty good reasons to believe Inman could be, in a year, exactly what he has been for the past two years: Gallardo 2.0.

 

Look at Hendrickson and Eveland.

 

Yes, minor league numbers don't always translate. But -- I can't remember, but I think I'm repeating myself -- Hendrickson had no fastball, and Eveland had conditioning problems and, BTW, is still plenty young to have a good or great career. The trick with minor league performance is to understand how it translates into major league success -- not just to say that minor leaguers sometimes fail, so we should just ignore their minor league performances.

 

The big knock on Inman, as Al and others have discussed, is that shorter RHPs don't tend to dominate in the bigs. There's also another good reason not to trust young pitching prospects -- they get hurt, a lot, and Inman does have injury in his past. All of that said, the recent Brewer minor leaguer Inman most closely resembles, by far, is Gallardo. Take a look at what they both did at Brevard -- the numbers could easily be two years in a single pitcher's career. Their ages for levels also tracked. This doesn't prove Inman will be Gallardo, by a longshot (and hell, Gallardo himself could still fall off or flame out). But he gets the same kinds of results -- strikes guys out, doesn't walk guys, limits the home run -- and since the mono, he has adjusted well to AA at a very young age. That's not just random noise that we can ignore, IMHO; it's meaningful evidence that he could be very, very good. He has much better credentials, taking scouting and numbers into account, than Hendrickson, and I'd say appreciably better credentials than Eveland. I can't think of any other Brewer pitching prospect since Sheets and Neugebauer (you don't even have to say it), aside from Gallardo, who has been in the same category -- refined, getting results, and on track to make the majors within a year.

 

Greg.

[Invader3K]

I guess I'm just glad, and will settle for the fact that, we still have Gallardo 1.0 http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[BillScottCanRake]

As you probably already know, I don't enjoy access to as comprehensive a level of stats as everyone else does, as I'm here at work, so game logs weren't available for me.

 

That's why I posted them earlier in the thread. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I figured they got buried, so I posted them again.

 

I think they are important because a lot of people did only see his overall numbers in Huntsville, and they aren't stellar, but they don't tell the whole story, either. Particularly when trying to evaluate a player and how they are developing.

 

But again, looking at those overall numbers, you could see why anyone could have felt he was getting torched, right?

 

That is exactly why I posted what I did. Stats are great, but only in context. In this case, the context is really important.

 

And by the way, if Inman is going to get a mulligan for those bad games due to the mono, then shouldn't Scott get that same latitude as his wife is about to deliver a baby?

 

Yes... that's why I am not too worried about what has happened the past couple of weeks.

 

My concerns aren't limited to those July outings, or even this year. If you look at Linebrink's numbers, they peaked in 2004 and have been slowly declining since. Unless his wife had some sort of record pregnancy, I don't think her having a baby affected him in 2005 or 2006. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

In looking at those numbers, I have a major concern, and that is Linebrink isn't as good as he appears and he won't help the team as much down the stretch as we would like.

 

- His current K/Rate is only better than Brian Shouse among Brewer relievers.

 

- His current WHIP is only better than Capellan, Spurling, Aquino, Dessens and Balfour. It is right there with Villaueva, but Carlos strikes out 4 per 9 innings more, which means he can get away with more base runners.

 

Of course, since he'll probably only get into 25 or so games, that small number of games may allow him to do just fine in spite of those declining numbers that have me worried. Maybe this year he has had some bad luck and his numbers will improve towards his career norms.

 

But, if he doesn't, then Melvin used his best bargaining chip on someone that showed signs of not being able to help the team. And, yes, Inman was a great bargaining chip, and no, I don't have a problem with him being traded. I am just not sure I like who he brought to Milwaukee.

 

And again, 30 appearances (every other game or so) of a Scott Linebrink, replacing on the roster an on-the-job trainee like a Balfour has GOT to influence our chances at a postseason berth...

 

While Balfour may indeed be replaced by Linebrink, don't be stunned if he remains on the roster and it's Parra that is sent to AAA. Parra still has options available, while Balfour doesn't.

 

Of course, adding Linebrink probably means Balfour wouldn't pitch as much if he remains on the 25-man roster, but don't be stunned if Grant isn't the odd man out.

[Fatter than Joey]

And again, 30 appearances (every other game or so) of a Scott Linebrink, replacing on the roster an on-the-job trainee like a Balfour has GOT to influence our chances at a postseason berth...

 

Well maybe.

 

Theoretically a guy like Balfour (at this point) should be used in games where the outcome has been pretty much determined, i.e. bullpen Stooge.

 

If you think Ned uses the tic-tac-toe playing chicken to make bullpen moves -- then this helps us. When Henny Penny randomly selects pitchers, then you can't have a mop-up pitcher at your disposal.

 

If you think that Sheets could be out until mid-September, or Yo will be shut down then, -- this is going to be a good move. If Sheets comes back soon, why couldn't have we used Thatcher as a stop-gap, like the Padres (in a pennant race) are doing.

 

Otherwise I think Wise/Tbow/Linebrink will be getting a lot more low-leverage innings. I don't see Linebrink as an upgrade over Tbow or Wise -- I see Linebrink getting Spurling's innings.

 

I think this could be like hiring a decent center in the NBA to give Shaq a bunch of fouls -- when just about any knuckle dragging clown could do that.

[monty57]

This seems to be a very polarizing trade, and I fall on both sides of the issue.

 

I absolutely feel that Linebrink helps out the bullpen this year. We have a lot of 5-inning starters, and therefore get a lot of use out of the pen. It would be nice, as has been stated, if Balfour and others "only pitched in 8-0 games," but I haven't seen many of them this year. Every game seems to be close, creating a lot of important bullpen innings. Take out the last month when Linebrink's wife was in the 8th month, and he's had a pretty good year. He will definitely upgrade the pen and therefore help our chances of making the playoffs, which have dwindled significantly in the last month or so as our 8.5 game lead has continuously shrunk. For those worried about Linebrink "Graffying" us and accepting arbitration, see the posts about people being worried about Balfour not clearing waivers. I thought it was crazy that Graffy was Type A, and was not surprised that no one would give up a 1st rounder. I don't think there is any chance other than injury that Linebrink won't get a contract.

 

Now, on the other end, I hate losing Inman. Good starting pitching is ridiculously expensive, and Inman looks like he could be a good starting pitcher. Also, you would think that it wouldn't have taken too much more to land Chad Cordero, but maybe that's not the case. I also was surprised when I found out that Linebrink was a free agent after the season, as I thought any good bullpen arm we'd target would become next year's closer. Now, next season's bullpen is going to be a wreck. The offseason pitching moves (Cappy, Bush and/or Vargas) that I thought may net us a left fielder and upper-level minor league pitching will now have to be focused on finding major league relievers.

 

I guess what it comes down to for me is that the Brewers are in danger of losing the Central lead, and possibly might not even make the wildcard - something that seemed incomprehensible a month ago. Balfour himself has blown two games in the last few days. If Linebrink turns one or two losses into wins over the rest of the season, he very well could be that last piece that gets us to the playoffs.

[BillScottCanRake]

This seems to be a very polarizing trade, and I fall on both sides of the issue.

 

I absolutely feel that Linebrink helps out the bullpen this year...

 

Now, on the other end, I hate losing Inman...

 

I guess I feel largely the opposite on this one.

 

I am not so sure that Linebrink helps this team as much as we'd hope. I don't think he's been anything special, and while I think he's been OK this year (not considering his July), I am not impressed with him to the point I'd have pulled the trigger on this trade.

 

While I understand the bullpen has been used a lot, and an extra arm will always help, I believe there were other options available that could have replaced Balfour and supplemented Wise, Villy, Turnbow and Cordero. Heck, one of the guys in the trade to get Linebrink has already had a better outing than any Balfour had to date. And Parra is going to need to probably spend most of the rest of the year in the pen anyways, and he's done OK in his outings so far.

 

I don't mind trading Inman- I like him, and I personally would have rather they kept him because I like him, but I understand the business, and I understand that sometimes you do want to trade unproven but talented players for those who are proven. I understand that Inman could potentially be the next Eveland or something, and trading him now does so while his value is highest.

 

That said, and maybe I am overvaluing Inman, but trading him and two other players (especially Thatcher) seems like a very high price to get a player they may have already had around.

 

I guess I'd have felt better if they'd have got someone closer to a sure thing with regard to their ability to for sure help this team.

[patrickgpe]

i think the biggest problem is that we acquired a righty at a price that we would of had to pay 2 years ago, when his numbers are worse. Plus there are only 61 games left, so if he will probably only be in 30-40 games for us, and then he is a free agent. That being said if this is a move that helps up win the central, i won't care if we lost inmann.

[lumberrule]

I havent sifted through all of the posts in this thread, so I apologize in advance if some of my thoughts are duplicated from others here.

 

I personally have no problems with the deal. Lets remember that Doug Melvin and Jack Z are two top-notch people in terms of scouting and development...obviously, they felt that letting Inman go for a half-season rental of Linebrink isn't going to damage this team for the future. While Inman does have upside, he also has a lot of things about him that aren't so good.

 

As far as Linebrink goes, I think he hops right into the top setup guy in the bullpen. Lets remember that Carlos V has thrown a TON of innings so far this year, and the chances of him wearing down in August/September are mighty good at this current pace. That, and Matt Wise seeming can't pitch back-to-back days, sometimes leaving Yost problems in organizing the pen on a day-to-day basis. Getting Linebrink allows Yost one more arm in that pen to keep the strain down for everybody.

 

Also, keep this nugget in mind...Cordero is likely gone after this year. While Linebrink is also a FA, perhaps the Brewers want to look at him as a possible closer option next year. He has the stuff to do it, and will be a cheaper option than just about any FA closer on the market.

[Ennder]

I'll agree with the last few posts. I don't really mind losing Inman for a draft pick, Linebrink will make the team better the rest of the way in my opinion. I personally wish we had gotten someone other than Linebrink though, maybe someone who could help next year too. So I'm somewhere in the middle, I don't hate the trade I don't love the trade.

[lumberrule]

One thing I will say: I like the trade a lot more for the Brewers when you hear vet pitchers like Trevor Hoffman and Jake Peavy bash the Padres for trading him, as they were both quoted publicly yesterday.

[TheCrew07]

Villy was a starting pitcher, he's not going to wear down.

[brewizard]

Quote:

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One thing I will say: I like the trade a lot more for the Brewers when you hear vet pitchers like Trevor Hoffman and Jake Peavy bash the Padres for trading him, as they were both quoted publicly yesterday.

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I don't really see why so many Brewers fans are hating this trade.

 

The Brewers are trying to win the Central - right now - this year - and solid middle relief pitching will help a lot.

 

Inman and Thatcher are in the minors and weren't going to help the team win this year.

 

Peavy and Hoffman hate the trade because Linebrink is a solid member of the bullpen - who makes starting pitchers look good. They hate the trade because the Padres are also trying to win their division. Why get rid of a solid bullpen arm for a couple of unproven prospects while in the thick of a playoff race? Seems counterintuitive for the Padres.

 

I do understand that Linebrink is a free agent next year - and acquiring him now - at a high prospect price - seems very un-Brewers-like.

 

But it only seems that way because the Brewers are in a very un-Brewers-like position: holding a tenuous lead in the NL Central.

[gregmag]

I like the trade a lot more for the Brewers when you hear vet pitchers like Trevor Hoffman and Jake Peavy bash the Padres for trading him, as they were both quoted publicly yesterday.

 

I'm not saying Peavy and Hoffman are wrong, but veteran ballplayers always prefer veteran ballplayers, especially guys they've played with for a while.

 

I don't really see why so many Brewers fans are hating this trade.

 

TheCrew, if you really don't see the opposing point of view after all these posts, then you're either blind or disrespectful. I'm not saying you have to agree with those of us who don't like the trade -- you can disagree with every word we've written, and you may be right. But to act, after all this discussion, like there aren't even two reasonable sides to consider . . . I don't have words.

 

Greg.

[LouisEly]

Hendrickson had no fastball

 

Inman doesn't have much of a fastball either.

 

Whomever said that the move might be Parra pitching the first game of the doubleheader and then getting sent back down after the game and activating Linebrink for the 2nd game might be right on.

 

There's other options too - like activating Linebrink for tonight and sending Weeks down, then have Dillon in the dugout waiting to be activated after game one tomorrow when Parra gets sent down (I don't think Gross and Gwynn have been down long enough to get recalled) - then Graffy is your starting 2B and Dillon and Counsell are your backup infielders. Dillon would only be up for a couple of days until Gwynn and or Gross have been down for the mandatory time. And Weeks... he could use some time in AAA to refocus and find his approach. The Brewers would only have 11 position players for two games, but it would allow Linebrink to join them right away.

 

Or they could just DFA Spurling.

[don1481]

Quote:

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Villy was a starting pitcher, he's not going to wear down.

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Yes he could, not because of the IP, but because of the number of times he'd have to come in and pitch. Remember, at the end of last season, the Red Sox wanted to move Papellbon back into the rotation because it would be "less stressful" on his arm, especially since he was run down/hurting down the stretch in '06. Smoltz moved back into the rotation in ATL not just because they needed him there but also because it would be less stress on his arm.

 

Which, again, brings up my concerns with having Yo (in theory) as anything but a mop-up/long guy in the pen... but that's a different topic for discussion on a different day.

[Bruce Ciskie]

I've been gone much of the day. Did I miss something? Is Linebrink still joining the team tonight? Who's going bye-bye?

[don1481]

Quote:

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sending Weeks down... he could use some time in AAA to refocus and find his approach.

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It seems like Rickie's been seeing the ball consistently better of late. I don't think this is really an option anymore.

 

But that said, do we know if Linebrink's arrived in St. Louis yet? Did his wife have a boy or girl? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Fatter than Joey]

Peavy and Hoffman hate the trade because Linebrink is a solid member of the bullpen - who makes starting pitchers look good.

 

I am pretty sure that Linebrink is a guy they like -- I would have been shocked had they been indifferent/happy to him leaving -- I don't think this means much as far as the worth of the trade.

[FVBrewerFan]

Quote:

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Inman and Thatcher are in the minors and weren't going to help the team win this year.

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If you read any of the opposing views at all, you'll see almost nobody is opposed to trading Inman and Thatcher. You also won't find anyone who doesn't believe Linebrink is a better option in the pen than Spurling and/or Balfour.

 

It's a question ov value. Many of us believe the Brewers gave up too much, plain and simple. If they made that trade for Lofton I would have been thrilled. And as it turns out, they probably could have got him for Thatcher alone.

[rluzinski]

Someone else noted, up-thread, that Scott's game logs this year show he posted a shutout appearance most of the time.

 

Here's how many runs the average ML team scored per inning from 99-02:

 

0 runs: 71%

1 run: 15%

2 runs: 7%&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp

3+ runs: 7%

 

An NL pitcher would do even better and considering an average reliever gives up less runs than an average starter, even a mediocre NL reliever should give up no runs at least 3 out of every 4 outings. Linebrink has given up no runs in 30 of his 40, 1 IP outings this year.

[mikerollins]

Quote:

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I see Linebrink getting Spurling's innings

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Can't say I even remotely agree. I see Linebrink as our 7th or 8th inning guy every single night we have a lead.

 

He is the premier set-up man in the league. Why would you compare him to Chris Spurling?

[mikerollins]

Quote:

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think the biggest problem is that we acquired a righty at a price that we would of had to pay 2 years ago, when his numbers are worse.

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They are only worse because of his 3-run homers to David Wright and Matt Holiday last week.

 

Take out those 2 home runs (6 ER's) and his ERA is right about where it always is.

 

In those 2 outings where he gave up the HR's, his ERA is 37.40. (both in July)

 

The rest of the season (43 1/3 innings), his ERA is 2.45.

[mikerollins]

Quote:

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I am pretty sure that Linebrink is a guy they like -- I would have been shocked had they been indifferent/happy to him leaving -- I don't think this means much as far as the worth of the trade.

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That's because you don't like the trade and you always just spin thinks to make your point of view appear better.

 

They are pissed off not because they got along with him, but because they see him pitch every day and know how good he is instead of looking at some ERA and K stats for the season and assuming he's "lost it" without actually looking and seeing that 7 out of his 19 runs given up this season were on 2 pitches. And failing to realize that in April and May he wasn't scored on in 28 out of 30 appearances. That's why they are upset to see him go. Spin it however you feel better spinning it though.

[mikerollins]

Quote:

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TheCrew, if you really don't see the opposing point of view after all these posts, then you're either blind or disrespectful. I'm not saying you have to agree with those of us who don't like the trade -- you can disagree with every word we've written, and you may be right. But to act, after all this discussion, like there aren't even two reasonable sides to consider . . . I don't have words.

---

 

In fairness to TheCrew, I don't really see how there is even a bad side to this trade.

 

The Brewers traded for one of the best set-up men in the game. They did nothing to hurt their team this year. They might have given up a decent starting pitcher, who MIGHT turn out to be OK, but is currently behind:

 

Sheets

Gallardo

Parra

Capuano

Vargas

Bush

Suppan

Villanueva

 

in terms of importance to the franchise.

 

He might never pitch a meaningful inning for the team.

 

Every inning Linebrink appears in this year will be meaningful.

 

There really aren't even 2 sides to this argument. I'm shocked at how much value people are putting on losing 2 marginal prospects and 1 high prospect who is behind a log-jam of pitchers.

 

This is exactly the kind of move the Brewers needed to make and I am sure glad (like the national media, local media, and a lot of fans) that they did.

[don1481]

Quote:

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They are only worse because of his 3-run homers to David Wright and Matt Holiday last week.

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Most of the numbers that people like myself have been throwing out on this discussion are regarding his peripherals, such as BAA, K/9, and WHIP. Those are the numbers that we've been citing when we state that he's been having an "off" year and how he's been "regressing" towards league norms over the past 2+ seasons.

 

While his ERA has been blown up because of those two outings, the same argument could be made about most relievers - they all have a couple of "bad" outings that bump up their ERA a little. That's why peripheral numbers can be indicative of a reliever's success.