Linebrink acquired for Inman/Garrison/Thatcher

[molitor fan]

With an eye towards detante, this is simply an article from the San Diego paper...nice things again are said in here about Linebrink.

 

 

www.signonsandiego.com/sp...adres.html

[xisxisxis]

And given how a large portion of those contracts have backfired, GMs are probably getting a little wiser about shelling out such cash.

 

Offering outlandish contracts is like crack to GM's. I haven't seen more than a short-term response to any bad signings. GMs come back to the well time and time again with little inclination at being a little wiser.

[hauser42]

Yes its about winning now. But Melvin still acted like a drunk who took out a $100 bill along with two 10s to pay his $25 dollar bar tab and told the bar tender to keep the change.

 

No he decided that it was time to take a chance and win a title this year instead of waiting around for a couple of guys that might have had an impact on a team in 3 years.

[bucksman4]

I find it funny that same people who said Sheets "wasn't a winner" and that Estrada is excellent because "he never strikes out and hits line drives" love this trade, claiming that Linebrink is the cream of the crop in terms of middle relievers.

 

And I find it funny that you're trying to paint a similarity between these three totally unrelated players. Because a person feels Estrada is an above-average, serviceable player it doesn't mean he will automatically feel Linebrink is amazing. They are two separate entities here. I can actually fathom the possibility of someone despising Estrada but loving Linebrink. A stretch, I know. But weirder scenarios have happened.

[MarquesJohnson2000]

Somewhere, former WSSP personality Peter Brown is saying "This is a great trade! The Brewers traded three guys I never heard of for a proven major league pitcher!"

[patrickgpe]

he wanted us to get rid of all of our minor leaguers, cause prospects hardly ever work out. Its a shame that he couldn't stick around and we didn't get to hear about how they should trade yo or braun for some proven talkent.

[endaround]

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Yes its about winning now. But Melvin still acted like a drunk who took out a $100 bill along with two 10s to pay his $25 dollar bar tab and told the bar tender to keep the change.

 

No he decided that it was time to take a chance and win a title this year instead of waiting around for a couple of guys that might have had an impact on a team in 3 years.

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Just because he wanted those wonderful apple-tinnis right now doesn't mean he still didn't overpay for them.

[Invader3K]

Peter Brown was the same one, IIRC, that was saying last year the Brewers would have to be careful about any deadline trades "so they don't go over the salary cap", so I don't know why we're talking about him now.

[BillScottCanRake]

One thing to note about the comp picks.

 

Since comp picks are based on what the player has done the past two years, when Linebrink becomes a FA could hugely impact whether or not he becomes a Type A FA. While it seems likely that he will be a Type A FA this off season, I think that becomes less likely if FA is put off to the 2008 season.

 

While Linebrink has done OK this year, some of his peripheral numbers suggest he may be declining. In 2004 and 2005 he was very, very good. During those two years he allowed only 116 hits in 157.2 innings, walking only 48 while striking out 153. During those two years, opponents only hit .209 against Linebrink, who allowed 1.04 base runners per inning and one home run about every 20 innings or so.

 

Since then, his K rate has fallen, to 8.09 in 2006 to it's present 5.0 this year. He's now allowing about 1 hit per inning pitched, and 1.25 base runners per inning. He's giving up a home run about every five innings or so.

 

So, if Linebrink is really declining (rather than slumping), and his numbers suffer even more because he's now pitching half his games in Milwaukee instead of San Diego, it wouldn't be shocking to see Linebrink lose his status as a Type A free agent if he pitches in Milwaukee in 2008.

[SeriesFinale]

No he decided that it was time to take a chance and win a title this year instead of waiting around for a couple of guys that might have had an impact on a team in 3 years.

 

No one has an issue with that course of action, just the cost for the relative return.

[giffted1]

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and we're going to get some nice draft picks when he walks.

 

Unless he sucks and choses arby.

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Given his career numbers, even with a down year its hard to believe no one will want him this offseason.

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Thatcher has been excellent in AAA, but I think we all know that it doesn't guarantee major league success (see Balfour, Grant).

 

Balfour hadn't pitched in MLB since 2004, and has only pitched in 3 innings -- I really don't think that we should use this as evidence.

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I could add some more examples, but AAA success doesn't equal major league success. Some were acting like we traded a good bullpen arm when he hasn't even pitched to major league hitters yet.

[don1481]

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So, if Linebrink is really declining (rather than slumping), and his numbers suffer even more because he's now pitching half his games in Milwaukee instead of San Diego, it wouldn't be shocking to see Linebrink lose his status as a Type A free agent if he pitches in Milwaukee in 2008.

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Exactly, BSCR, which was my point in comparing this to the Graffy situation last year.

 

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Since then, his K rate has fallen, to 8.09 in 2006 to it's present 5.0 this year. He's now allowing about 1 hit per inning pitched, and 1.25 base runners per inning. He's giving up a home run about every five innings or so.

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Hence us acquiring "Meh Scott" versus "Awesome Scott."

 

If this is the going rate for an arm like Linebrink, I shudder at the actual cost for a top-end reliever...

[endaround]

Quote:

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Since comp picks are based on what the player has done the past two years, when Linebrink becomes a FA could hugely impact whether or not he becomes a Type A FA.

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Thing is, will any team give up a pick to get Linebrink next year if he is labeled Type A?

[sbrylski]

Where was the post detailing the exact picks we'd get if he was a type A free agent? I can't seem to find it.

[DrWood]

I only read the first 4 and the last pages on this thread, so I'll apologize if this is redundant.

Assuming Linebrink walks at the end of the season, and he retains his type A status, and gets signed, the brewers pick up a late first or early second and sandwich round pick.

OK, those guys we pick, if we trust our scouting dept., will probably end up being better than Inman and Garrison were. We just lose a couple years of development on them, and Thatcher, who is the type of guy that can always be found. That's not that big of a cost, if Linebrink makes a difference.

 

I did like Garrison, though, he was getting better as the season went by.

[Invader3K]

Well, Towers said in that article that at one point (didn't specify if it was this year or last year or what) every other team had inquired about Linebrink. I have to believe other teams are still interested.

 

Slightly OT question...how does a player's free agent status get decided, anyway? I mean, who decides which players are Type A or not?

[BillScottCanRake]

Thing is, will any team give up a pick to get Linebrink next year if he is labeled Type A?

 

That's a big unknown at this point, and is probably somewhat dependent on his performance in August and September.

 

The good news is it only takes one team to want him.

[molitor fan]

According to a report i saw yesterday (and cannot find for reference), the Brewers had to include Inman, and then add Garrison because the Brewers were in a bidding war with the Yankees.

 

If the Yanks add Linebrink along with other free agents, like they normally do, I believe the pick they give up would be perhaps lower than a 1st rounder.

[BillScottCanRake]

Where was the post detailing the exact picks we'd get if he was a type A free agent? I can't seem to find it.

 

From the BF.net FAQ:

 

How does the free-agent compensation process works?

Every offseason, the Elias Sports Bureau compiles rankings of all major league players, based on the previous two year's stats. The players are ranked by position, so first basemen are not compared to second basemen, etc. The players are then broken down into Type A, Type B and Type C (and the rest).

 

Type A players are players rated in the top 30 percent of all players at their position. Type B players are players rated in the 31-50 percent bracket at their position. Type C players are players rated in the 51-60 percent bracket at their position. Because the players are only compared to others at their position, some players might be a Type B but seem to be not as good as some Type C players, etc., but that?s how the system works.

 

When a team loses a free agent who is ranked in one of the three categories, they receive compensation as follows (if and only if they offered that player arbitration before he signed with his new team):

 

* Type A. Team losing player gets signing team?s first-round pick as well as a supplemental first-round pick. If the signing team is picking in the first half of the first round, they lose their second-rounder instead of their first-rounder.

* Type B. Team losing player gets signing team?s first-round pick. If the signing team is picking in the first half of the first round, they lose their second-rounder instead of their first-rounder.

* Type C. Team losing player gets a supplemental pick after the second round.

 

If a team doesn't offer arbitration to their free agent, they get nothing when he signs with another team. This brings up the next question of why don't the teams always offer arbitration? The answer is, they might simply be afraid he'll accept it. It's a gamble some teams aren't willing to take, even if it seems likely the player is heading out of town.

 

I think that is slightly out of date, because I believe Type C compensation has been discontinued. The information for the Type A FA is accurate, though.

[don1481]

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the Brewers had to include Inman, and then add Garrison because the Brewers were in a bidding war with the Yankees.

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Out of sheer morbid curiousity, I wonder what the Yankees were willing to give up...

[Team Canada]

I think the players have nothing to do with whether the Brewers make the playoffs. Obviously it's just Karma and luck. How could players ever have a role when the cosmos determines every outcome....

 

 

Talk about straw man...

 

If you're just riffing off my post, fine, but you can't honestly believe that is my argument..

[sheetswannabe]

Prospects never work out? Who would ever say that, every major leaguer was once a prospect. You never know. I like the trade, his era is a little inflated because the last couple games.

[1992casey]

Type A will be down to the top 20% this year. Doug Melvin seems to feel that Scott will qualify.

 

Invader3K, players are divided up by position (outfield is lumped together and I believe 2B, SS, and 3B are lumped together). MLB then applies a 'secret' formula to determine rankings.

[sbrylski]

Thanks BillScott, I wasn't sure if the compensation had changed or not, but now I remember it was just the type C.

[pogokat]

i think linebrink wwill have no trouble signing with someone else...doug melvin is definitely not the only GM to overpay for relief help...even if Linebrink comes in and throws up a 4.5 era for the rest of the season, someone will definitely offer him at leats 2 years at 10 million...

 

this isn't graffanino...and the free agent rankings have changed, so there will be many fewer type a free agents...

 

linebrink will net us picks...