Why is Wise's change-up so good?

[adambr2]

Matt Wise seems to baffle hitters with his changeup.

 

And I just don't get it.

 

Most effective changeups that I've seen around the league, work best when complemented with a good fastball. In Wise's case, he throws the offspeed the majority of the time. They know it's coming. I would think they could just sit on it, but apparently, they can't.

 

So, can someone please explain this to me? Does Wise just have uncanny movement on his changeup? What differentiates his offspeed from the average changeups in baseball?

[Nearsighted Views]

For one, the ability to spot the fastball. It doesn't need to register at 95 to be effective. Real Estate and pitching have 1 thing in common...

 

It's like Turnbow. His breaking ball is average at best but when he can get it over, it becomes devastating. When he can't, his 97mph fastball becomes a meatball.

[saget]

I dunno, Turnbow can be downright filthy sometimes. When his slider is on it's pretty dang good.

 

As for Wise, maybe it has to do with his arm movement. I'm no expert of course, but I don't think he changes arm speed/height at all for his fastball and changeup. Maybe.

[Nearsighted Views]

Turnbow's fastball and Turnbow's breaking ball, by themselves, aren't that great. Together, they become devastating. If one isn't working, the other loses effectiveness and he becomes hittable. I think it's the same with Wise.

 

Hitters know his changeup is coming the same that they know Turnbow's breaking ball is coming. It's the fact that they have to protect against other pitches that makes them effective.

[adambr2]

What other pitches? I don't think Wise really has any other pitches that are really effective, and from what I've seen, he throws the offspeed a good majority of the time.

[Nearsighted Views]

His "fastball" is just good enough to make the changeup super-effective. When you're waiting for a 35mph pitch and he throws you a 80mph pitch, you now have to protect against both which leads to indecision.

 

I have a feeling I'm going to get eaten up on this one.

[bullox]

35mph

 

I haven't seen the likes of that since 4th grade little league. Maybe even before that.

[thablingster]

Wise's change seems to have a pretty nice drop to it, so between that and the fact he can spot it pretty much anywhere he wants, hitters are caught off guard by it.

[bigredrobbo]

Added to the fact that he's like a stick insect with a goatee with that weird slow sinewy windup, and there's a whole bunch of deception going on...

[Ayt]

Tons of movement and great location. Hitters eyes light up when the see a fastball, but most of the time his fastball is pretty far out of the strike zone. He really does toy with guys on most nights.

[steve267268]

I like the way he pitches, especially when it is working. He had a super year in 05, a dissapointing season last year that may have been due to injury, and looks to be doing pretty dang well again this year. He is one of the keys to this team staying atop the central in my opinion.

 

You have Coco, who you know will be great. Turnbow can be nearly as dominate, but has his off nights. CV has been marvelous in his role. And then there are the "others". Capellan, Spurling, and Shouse are guys that i would never feel good about putting in there. With Turnbow becoming the setup guy by default, Wise is now a VERY important buffer between our good relievers and our bad relievers. He and CV can split time in the 6th and 7th innings. CV pitching 6 and 7 when the starter only goes 5. Wise pitching the 7th when he goes 6.

[Point Beer Is Best]

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Most effective changeups that I've seen around the league, work best when complemented with a good fastball. In Wise's case, he throws the offspeed the majority of the time. They know it's coming. I would think they could just sit on it, but apparently, they can't.

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Part of it is his delivery - there's nothing there to tip off hitters. But hitters usually can't sit on a changeup anyways, since pitchers who excel at throwing them also vary the speeds of their changeups. Wise might throw you an 85 mph fast ball, but are you going to get a changeup that's 70mph? 72? 65? It's hard to sit on that. And if you do, that 85mph fastball looks like it's coming at 100mph. The fastball/changeup combination is one of the most effective a pitcher can master.

[brewcrew00]

Most pitchers throw different pitches out of different "slots." Wise throws both his change up as well as his fastball out of the same slot, or arm angle and a hitter has no way of tipping off the pitch. It's not important at all how fast the fastball is, the important thing is the difference in speeds. A 15-20 mph difference has the same effect of a 100mph fastball and an 85 mph change, versus a 85 mph fastball and a 70 mph change.

 

Basically being able to deliver two different pitches the exact same way is deadly, because a hitter has no way of being tipped off.

[rluzinski]

A little off topic but his goofy approach gives him a BABIP similar to what you might expect form a knuckleballer:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/42_P_season_full_7_20070627.png

[davego]

Most pitchers throw different pitches out of different "slots." Wise throws both his change up as well as his fastball out of the same slot, or arm angle and a hitter has no way of tipping off the pitch. It's not important at all how fast the fastball is, the important thing is the difference in speeds. A 15-20 mph difference has the same effect of a 100mph fastball and an 85 mph change, versus a 85 mph fastball and a 70 mph change.

 

 

What you said. Whole thing is that he doesn't tip anything. Clearly, there are guys in AA that have 'stuff' as good as Wise. What seems to work for him is not tipping and very, very good control. I think it's crazy, but seems to work.

[RightFieldCoder]

Hitters go up there knowing he tops out at 85 mph. They so desperately want that pitch, and when they see his arm angle and speed they think/hope it's the pitch they can crush. And on 2-0 when most pitchers throw a get me over fastball, hitters get even more tense. Which makes them whiff all the more on that 68 mph change up.

[Ayt]

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A little off topic but his goofy approach gives him a BABIP similar to what you might expect form a knuckleballer:

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This doesn't surprise me. He gets some of the weirdest movement out of his change that I have ever seen.

[JohnBriggs12]

"he tops out at 85...makes them whiff on that 68 mph change up".

 

Neither of those numbers are accurate Robin19. Wise's fastball is run of the mill 88-90, not 85. And his change is 78-80, not 68. If a guy took 20 mph off his fastball on a straight change, it would be crushed as hitters could double clutch and still hit it.

 

Key to changeup is arm speed and location.

 

By the way, I think Villanueva has a change just as nasty as Wise. The difference is Villanueva has maybe 1-2 more mph on his fastball, and also has a slider and curveball that he can get over in any count so he doesn't rely as much on his change as Wise.

[Point Beer Is Best]

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If a guy took 20 mph off his fastball on a straight change, it would be crushed as hitters could double clutch and still hit it.

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That's true. Carlos Lee did that last year or the year before. In that AB, he leaned, reset, then crushed a ball into the bleachers.