A true test for Sheets tonite.

[BillScottCanRake]

I thought I heard one of the announcers say just before the bottom of the 3rd) that Sheets said in the dugout to the team "If you guys go out and score some runs, I won't let them score again".

 

I am not sure that anyone heard Sheets say that. When I heard them say that, I was under the impression they felt like that is what Sheets would say, as opposed to actually hearing him say that.

 

He might have said something to that affect, but I don't think anyone heard it.

[homer]

Quote:

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My hope is that is the trend and his start against Atlanta was an aberration due to the blister.

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And mine as well. Not to mention that over the course of a season, Sheets could have a game like this anyway - regardless of a blister. The nice thing is that he was still able to be decent with less than stellar 'stuff'. And some of the hits were after a defensive gaff so maybe 11 isn't a fair total to assign him.

[xisxisxis]

I don't think anyone is calling Sheets' performance last night good.

 

Au contrair. He pitched 6 innings and gave up 3 or fewer runs. That's a quality start. I think many (excluding you Chris) expect a lights out performance every time he goes out there expecting him to shut down the other team. Of any starter on this staff, Ben Sheets has the ability to put up a sub 2 ERA over an extended period of time (8-10 starts), but most true aces have their share of only quality starts, and some really bad games.

[Tbadder]

I wonder about that quality start stat. 3 runs in 6 innings is a quality start? Not mine. 2 runs in 6 innings seems like a quality start. 3 runs in 7 innings seems like it could be quality. In fact how is a quality start defined as only 6 innings pitched? I really don't get it. Not trying to start something; it's just antithetical to my way of thinking.

[RU Rah Rah]

I agree, Tbadder. 3 ER in 6 IP translates into a 4.50 ERA, and the league average in the NL now is closer to 4.

 

Maybe they should call it a "competent start" or something.

[GAME05]

i agree with that assessment for the most part. if you look at one quality start it never seems that terrific. though i value the statistic if it's in a collection, as a measure of a pitcher's consistency, like "20 of his 22 starts have been quality starts." that at the most the pitcher isn't prone to a lot of blowups.

[BillScottCanRake]

I have some issues with the stat:

 

- Some times a "quality" start isn't. If a pitcher goes six innings and gives up three runs, but allows 15 base runners, I wouldn't consider that quality so much as incredibly lucky.

 

- It treats all starts of at least six innings and three or less runs the same. A 6 inning, 10 hit, 5 walk three run start is treated the same as an 8 inning, three hit, no walk no run start.

 

- If a 6 inning, three run start is quality (ERA for the start of 4.5), how come an 8 inning, four run start isn't? It is the same ERA, and the starter went longer.

 

- It doesn't take the game into context. A pitcher can be effective giving up four or five runs if their team is up a bunch.

 

In general, I like the idea of identifying a "quality" start. I just don't really like how it is currently defined.

[xisxisxis]

I wonder about that quality start stat. 3 runs in 6 innings is a quality start? Not mine. 2 runs in 6 innings seems like a quality start. 3 runs in 7 innings seems like it could be quality. In fact how is a quality start defined as only 6 innings pitched? I really don't get it. Not trying to start something; it's just antithetical to my way of thinking.

 

It's really just a easy measuring stick for assessing a start. The IP requirement is 6 so that the start doesn't tax the bullpen (assuming most bullpens can handle pitching the 7th-9th). The ER requirement is to match league average ERA (IIRC). I think you could argue for any individual start that it may be a "quality" start without meeting the standard requirements, but these work well as a rule of thumb.

 

 

3 ER in 6 IP translates into a 4.50 ERA, and the league average in the NL now is closer to 4.

 

NL Overall ERA = 4.13 (2007 season to date).

 

I don't have the breakdown, but last year the average ERA for SP in both leagues was ~4.6 and for relievers it was ~3.9 (overall 4.35). If similar trends hold then I would anticipate the NL SP ERA to be closer to 4.5 (i.e. greater than 4.25) than to 4.0, but I can't find the exact numbers. 6IP/3ER isn't as good as 7IP/2ER, but I like to see how much a pitcher's performance varies and knowing his QS % gives me a good feeling for how well a pitcher keeps his team in the game. While these are the minumums for IP and ER allowed they indicate a quality start is at least league average for SP ERA, and even 1 more out is better than league average. If you can get league average production form a start that is good in my book and quality some.

[Tbadder]

yeah, I was thinking the same thing. A 4.50 era is what I want from my 4th or 5th starter. Thanks for the info though, you guys are the best.

[Ayt]

I think the debate is over after today.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Ennder]

6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 6 BB, 0 K's

 

Willis with a quality start today but Sheets managed to out duel him!

[rluzinski]

Sheets looked great today. Looked like the could throw his curve for a strike at will. He now has the lowest ERA among the Brewers rotation and that should surprise no one.

[Fike85]

I really do not pay much attention to the quality start stat, though I think it's a better measure of performance than win and losses because it can at least suggest consitency. For instance, last season Chris Capuano had a 4.03 ERA and 25 QS. in 2005 Cappy had a 3.99 ERA and 16 QS. In this case the QS stat provides evidence that Cappy was better last season than the year before.

 

So in that sense the QS stat has some use, but overall its utility is very limited.

[BraunsBoyfriend]

Sheets is awesome. There's no other way around it.

[mikerollins]

Let me be the first to say it....Ben Sheets' start on Saturday against Texas is an ENORMOUS test for him. I mean if he doesn't shut them out over 8 innings, it will prove that his last 9 starts were all flukes. It will show that his 2.65 ERA over the last 9 starts was juts a byproduct of playing bad teams. It will show he only pitches well in the NL because it's a poor hitter's league. And most importantly it will prove that Sheets is over-rated because Quality Starts shouldn't be 6 innings, but rather 7. I'll be on pins and needles until next Saturday waiting to see if we have an ace or if he is merely a 3rd starter. It should be quite the test.

 

Just for fun: his last 9 starts

 

6 Innings; 0 ER

6 innings: 3 ER

6.1 innings; 2 ER

7.2 innings; 2 ER

6 innings; 3 ER

6.1 innings; 2 ER

6 innings; 2 ER

3 innings; 0 ER

7 innings; 2 ER

[madjeff66]

I thought the Sheets start last Tuesday was a good "ace" start. You can't get credit for negative runs in an inning, so the 3 in the first are there regardless, but you can buckle down and keep your team in the game after that even with your "B" game, and he did that giving his tean a chance to come back and win, even against a future HOF'er like Smoltz.

[rluzinski]

I am more concerned with Sheets displaying the tools that have helped him become one of the better pitchers in the league than the result of any one regular season game. Over the last few years, Sheets has averaged about a K an inning and it's a big part of his success.

 

The significance of his great performance today goes beyond the win he racked up. His command seemed spot on today, with 69 of his 99 pitches going for strikes. The curve looked great. Hopefully it stays that way for the rest of the year.

[brewmann04]

great start today by Ben and he looking more like the true ace of this staff.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The thing that sticks out to me lately is that Benny is striking guys out with his curveball out of the strikezone. That's when he's at his best, and that's when he's striking out a lot of guys.

 

Hey, another 3-4 win month might get Benny into the A-S game (with JJ, Prince, and Coco) the way he's going.

[JenksFan5]

I don't care how good Sheets has been lately. Tomorrow is a must win and if he truly is the ace, he needs to get it done.

[Fike85]

As good as Sheets has been I remained puzzled by his 6.18 K/9. From 2004-2006 he had a K/9s of 10.03, 8.10, and 9.85, respectively. Furthermore, his career K/9 is 7.65.

 

Has the league figured out Sheets, so to speak? And by that I mean, has the league figured out how to not look foolish by Sheets' curve, to which Sheets has adapted in order to remain successful

[bullox]

As long as he is getting outs, I'm not very worried about the prefix.

 

See all the "Do strikeouts really matter" threads for details.

[Oldcity]

Strikeouts aren't "better" outs for pitchers; it's just that they are good indicators of future success. So yeah Sheets' low k totals are noteworthy, but he keeps talking about tinkering with his curve to get where he wants. He's doing just fine in the mean time.

[rluzinski]

Has the league figured out Sheets, so to speak? And by that I mean, has the league figured out how to not look foolish by Sheets' curve, to which Sheets has adapted in order to remain successful

 

I think it's pretty obvious that Sheets has struggled with his command at times this year. He's been in the league for years, so the idea that the league has just "figured him out" this year doesn't make much sense, IMO.

 

Strikeouts aren't "better" outs for pitchers; it's just that they are good indicators of future success.

 

K's are better because they are an out almost 100% of the time. A ball in play results in an out about 70% of the time.

[Ennder]

Quote:

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I wonder about that quality start stat. 3 runs in 6 innings is a quality start? Not mine. 2 runs in 6 innings seems like a quality start. 3 runs in 7 innings seems like it could be quality. In fact how is a quality start defined as only 6 innings pitched? I really don't get it. Not trying to start something; it's just antithetical to my way of thinking

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If the worst start you have all season is 6 Ip and 3 ER you will be one of the best pitchers in the game. You are just really nitpicking with your definition of quality start.