Team Defense

[igor67]

Not accounting for a team's defense you are generally able to predict quite well how well they will do knowing BBs, Ks and HR if your a stickler you can throw in IBB and HBP too.

 

I think we all know that our team defense is a little below average. I was just curious how much it is hurting us in general. I'm not suggesting any kind of massive change I think it just helps to know.

 

Please note it is better to use runs than earned runs because so much of the difference between earned and unearned is subjective anyway.

 

Team rank in NL?

in runs 6th

in Batting average 6th

in BB 2nd

in Ks 3rd

Earned runs 7th

HBP 3rd

IBB 1st

HR 4th

hits 7th

 

Using just the quick and dirty OXS formula for runs the Brewers pitchers should have given up 352 runs vs 349 actual well with in the error. Now if you look at the teams ahead of the Brewers in runs allowed there batting averages allowed are over .010 points better. So re running those numbers and taking out that batting average difference I have a run allowed total of 331. Now it is possible that those other teams have above average defense and that is what the ESPN stats suggest, but it food for thought that compared to the other top teams were giving back about that much on defense.

 

 

(added some spacing for readability --1992casey)

[1992casey]

Adding to what igor67 said, the Brewers' DER (defensive efficiency rating is right at average.

 

Check the pitching stats on the Hardball Times Team Coverage page.

[Yaz]

Wow,

 

Just saw this on the ESPN team rankings.

 

The Brewers' .671 Defensive Efficiency Rating -- a measure

of how often balls in play are turned into outs -- ranks last in the

majors.

 

This really explains the season to a tee.

[sveumrules]

The Brewers are currently 20th in team UZR at -13.4 and 28th in ERA/FIP differential at +.48

 

The main culprits (big surprise) are Fielder, McGehee, Braun and Hart who have combined for a -33.6 UZR in 4391 innings at the four corners thus far.

 

It is somewhat encouraging that we have LuCroy, Escobar and Cain at the three toughest defensive positions for the forseeable future as all profile as plus defenders with the capability to put up around league average offense, and that = value.

[twobrewers]

Fielder and McGehee are big bodies that don't move very well. I understand their inadequacies defensively.

Braun and Hart are both very athletic. The fact that they struggle so much defensively is maddening.

[owbc]

I do not need any statistics to see that the Brewers have one of the worst defenses in MLB. It does not seem to be a high priority of Macha, Melvin, or Attanasio to fix it--all the emphasis is on the pitching.

[dlk9s]

Keep in mind that if you improve the defense, chances are you are going to hurt the hitting.

[owbc]

Keep in mind that if you improve the defense, chances are you are going to hurt the hitting.

Usually that is true. However, I am starting to think that defense is the #1 problem with this team, not pitching. If the Brewers add a few arms in a Fielder trade, they could easily field an average to slightly above-average pitching staff next year. However, just looking at the top teams in MLB and where they rank defensively, it is clear that only a few poor defensive teams advance to the postseason. 5 of the top 6 teams in Defensive Efficiency are on their way to the postseason. If the current standings hold, not a single team in the bottom 1/2 of DE will make the postseason, with Minnesota being the lowest at #13.

 

I understand that no statistic is perfect (pitching and defense are inter-related), but if there was ever an indication that pitching and defense wins titles--especially in the post-steroid era, this is it. The Brewers could easily make defensive upgrades at C, 1B, and 3B while still maintaining an above-average offense.

 

Poor defense should be tolerated only by our best performing hitters.

[logan82]

However, I am starting to think that defense is the #1 problem with this team, not pitching.

 

Possibly but pitching is going to be much easier to improve than our defense. I don't see more than 3 position players changing between this year and next. I think that would be an extreme case. Cain, Braun, Escobar, Lucroy are locks along with Hart at either RF or 1B. Weeks and McGehee are almost certain locks as well in my opinion. Fielder is almost a lock to be traded. I think we are much closer to average than the statistics show.

[TooLiveBrew]

Poor defense should be tolerated only by our best performing hitters.

 

Those are basically the guys that are guilty of poor defense, aside from McGehee.

[LouisEly]

Most players when they are drafted, especially high schoolers, are not good defensively. One of the functions of the minors is to improve this area, and the Brewers have not done a good job of developing this aspect. I don't know that it is so much Melvin's fault for bringing in poor defensive ballplayers as it is the organization's fault for poor defensive coaching in the minors. They need to take a long look at their fielding instruction program and make it a priority from day #1 in rookie leagues - if you don't make the effort to improve defensively you will not be promoted aggressively.

 

It doesn't help when players get yanked around from position to position, like Hart and Braun, and come into the majors with little minor league experience at the position they are playing. Gamel is likely to be added to this list too.

[homer]

I imagine whoever they stick at 1st base next year is going to improve that number quite a bit. Both in terms of fielding the position and receiving throws from the other infielders. It's also another reason to stick Hart at 1st, IMO, where his UZR would probably be pretty good and his negative UZR in right could be replaced by someone like Gamel who would probably do no worse and may do better.

[pete]

Having a good or bad UZR doesn't mean someone is good or bad defensively. I want to meet the Brewers games "video scout" who looks at a monitor and makes judgements, many which can't be made by looking at a monitor. I wonder if he knows more about Doritos flavors than what parallax is.

 

The pitching staff combines mightily to allowing runs. How many rockets do they give up? So far this year they've walked an astonishing 511 batters, given up 155 HRs and thrown 60 wild pitches, at least according to the official scorer.

 

The team losing, favorite players not getting special treatment and disliked players remaining is fertile ground for confirmation bias. I think one of the most interesting aspects is that someone can be shown that something is false, but it doesn't take away the belief. When Braun makes an imperfect throw and the result is a play that essentially loses the game, the immediate judgements were how AWFUL he is despite the fact that the video contradicted the claims made. At least in the IGT and chat, nobody started kvetching that Lucroy botched the play severly or that Braddock failed or that Casey might have cut the ball off other than one poster who said that the play should not happen without discussing blame.

 

Declaring Braun, Hart, McGehee and Fielder AWFUL or HORRIBLE doesn't make it so no matter how many times its repeated.

[endaround]

No Braun, Hart McGehee and Fielder are horrible due entirely to their play.

[TooLiveBrew]

When Braun makes an imperfect throw and the result is a play that essentially loses the game, the immediate judgements were how AWFUL he is despite the fact that the video contradicted the claims made. At least in the IGT and chat, nobody started kvetching that Lucroy botched the play severly or that Braddock failed or that Casey might have cut the ball off other than one poster who said that the play should not happen without discussing blame.

 

I was really ticked at Lucroy on that play, but I didn't happen to be chatting or posting in the IGT. I'm sure there are many others like me on that one. I went back & read the IGT, and I can see appx. 4 comments that rip Braun, and about 4 that either don't rip him or rip Lucroy and/or Braddock along with him. And one of the posters that ripped Braun clarified that his beef was that the throw was weak, not offline.

 

 

Declaring Braun, Hart, McGehee and Fielder AWFUL or HORRIBLE doesn't make it so no matter how many times its repeated.

 

Relative to their MLB counterparts, yes they are poor defenders. McGehee is the best of the bunch imo, but even he's not that good. Declaring that everyone else is wrong about these players doesn't make it so, either. Braun & Hart really might be the worst corner OF combo, defensively, in the entire league. They're brutal. Braun has just started to look like he doesn't even care out there this season.

[RU Rah Rah]

Braun's throwing motion strikes me as being really odd -- like a modified pitcher's wind-up or something?

[homer]

I think Stats, Inc. uses three stringers at each game to prevent bias. So between three guys I would think you'd get a pretty accurate reading on grounder vs line drive or sharp grounder vs. dribbler.

[Baldkin]

Braun simply doesn't care. Watch him out there. He never adjusts based on the hitter, the count or the game situation. He also doesn't like to run hard on anything hit over his head.

 

A prime example: Lo Cain's great catch: Cain ran almost twice as far as Braun would've had to to catch the ball.

 

http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/b7c155998b69579a63bd327dcfe3ab3edf17daa.jpg

[pete]

]Relative to their MLB counterparts[/u], yes they are poor defenders. McGehee is the best of the bunch imo, but even he's not that good. Declaring that everyone else is wrong about these players doesn't make it so, either. Braun & Hart really might be the worst corner OF combo, defensively, in the entire league. They're brutal. Braun has just started to look like he doesn't even care out there this season.

 

You didn't bother to read the link I provided. Once again you begin by making declarations. Then you invent something you want to ascribe to me. Personally, I find straw man arguments insulting. And who is everyone? You and one other poster say the same things over and over and over and over and over and over and over. You and he aren't everyone. The idea that Hart and Braun are "brutal" defensively is laughable.

[RightFieldCoder]

I have season seats behind the right fielder. Hart does not get good jumps on the balls, based on other right fielders that I see play in front of me. There are some that are worse (like the Pirates catcher in RF), but most get better jumps than him. Hart does read the bounce off the wall better than the other fielders. I'm not trying to be biased, that's just what it looks like to me.

[jhart05]

"Braun simply doesn't care."

 

I don't know that I'd say that. I think that's a bit harsh. I would guess he was always a SS growing up. I think he's still learning the OF. He's only been out there for a couple years now.

 

And that picture makes Cain look a lot farther away from the ball because of the angle of the camera. Plus we don't know if Cain was calling for the ball. It's always the CFer's ball first.

 

However I do agree that Braun and Hart are below average defenders. I've sat in the RF bleachers for quite a few games watching Hart not being able to read the ball off the bat. Maybe he needs glasses.

[TooLiveBrew]

I know what confirmation bias is, I don't need a Wikipedia link. Unfortunately you've firmly dug in your heels on this and no facts are going to get in your way. That's why I call Braun & Hart bad defenders -- the facts bear it out. What are your facts? You're bringing nothing but condescension & a holier-than-thou attitude imo. I know you're quick to assume all I'm doing is going to FanGraphs & regurgitating UZR & the like, but that's not the case.

 

And if you think that only two posters are calling Braun & Hart bad defenders, I think you need to read more threads on the ML forum. Those types of comments are all over the place.

[MJLiverock]

I can agree that Braun and Hart aren't the greatest defenders in the world but I do agree with the gist of AKA Pete's post. Defensive metrics like UZR get thrown around a lot on here like they are gospel and used as an excuse to cover a bad pitching staff or to create things like WAR to come up with values for players. It doesn't take one too long to find plenty of articles on the web from some pretty savvy stats people calling into question the validity or accuracy of UZR.

 

I think it probably works enough to give a person a general idea of bad, average, or good but when plugged into formulas to come with precise measures of comparison it falls short.

 

Even reading blog postings by Mitchel Lichtmen, the father of UZR, has statements that leave me questioning how accurate it is. It is still a subjective measure on how hard a ball is hit, positioning, pitch type, as well as a certain confirmation bias that can leak in based on reputation of the fielder. I have yet to find that three guys are sent to each ballpark to indepently rate each play. I would be interested in seeing how each player rated for a game, especially to see if some plays are considered bad or misplays or great plays.

 

 

Mr. Lichtmen fully admits he doesn't like to account for line drives in his calculations nor anything for arm strength or the first baseman's ability to catch or dig throws.

 

The UZR calculation just assume an average for the number of balls hit into each zone that are turned into outs. This leaves a host of interpretation to the turning outs into outs basis for the formula. Rarely are two balls hit the same and with the same positioning of the players yet the formulas rely on X number of balls hit into zone Y being outs. If pitchers are constantly giving up balls into the hard to reach zones a player is penalized, fly ball pitchers tend to make it worse for the infielders as they have fewer chances to overcome errors.

 

One stat head who questions the validity of the UZR ratings has a small discusssion of it here http://www.baseballprospe...icle.php?articleid=11476

 

Apparenlty, he has been a skeptic of their validty for some time but is well respected as having knowledge of stats and the game.

 

I think the stats are interesting but not nearly as precise or accurate as they get tossed around. I don't think they provide the absolution of the pitching staff that is often insinuated either. The defense isn't the reason guys can't thow strikes or not give up bombs. In fact the terrible pitching may be making the defense look worse than it is on something like UZR. Being not great at defense and then coupling it with pitchers walking guys and throwing up meatballs makes playing defense tough.

[Funketown]

And if you think that only two posters are calling Braun & Hart bad defenders, I think you need to read more threads on the ML forum. Those types of comments are all over the place.

Add me to the crowd who is calling Braun and Hart bad defenders.

 

There are very few people on this site who take UZR without a grain of salt. I largely agree with the methodology, and although it is not even close to perfect, it is getting better. My opinions on Braun and Hart are not simply copied from Fangraphs; I've watched them play the outfield all year, and quite frankly, I've yet to find many people who follow the game closely who consider them anything but bad defenders, especially Braun.

[Baldkin]

"Braun simply doesn't care."

And that picture makes Cain look a lot farther away from the ball because of the angle of the camera. Plus we don't know if Cain was calling for the ball. It's always the CFer's ball first.

Fine, watch the video then. Tell me the point where Braun runs hard (and he ends up 10 feet from where Cain made the play). It's the same as when he let the ball drop next to him on a ball hit 15 feet away from him 3 days later. A lack of effort.

 

Braun has been in LF for 3 years. It's not the fact that he gets a bad jump on the ball that bothers me. It's that he doesn't position himself based on the game situation, and he still catches every single fly ball flat footed even when he needs to make a throw. The things that are learnable, he hasn't bothered to learn.