Do we need to watch Villanueva's innings?

[1992casey]

Al mentioned the 'frequency of use' thing in his blog, too. I guess with the warming up and such, we have to consider Carlos' 54 relief innings as being equivalent to a greater number of 'starter' innings.

 

If we were to put Villanueva into the rotation today and use him 'normally' for the duration of the regular season and playoffs, though, I don't think there'd be much of an innings issue.

[JoeHova]

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You have to bring heat (almost all closers) or have a devastating changeup (hoffman) to close. Villanueva as a set-up guy, maybe. Not as a closer.

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No, that's not true. You have to be able to get outs (especially strikeouts), and Villanueva can do that. There have been plenty of closers who didn't have great fastballs.

 

That said, I don't want Villanueva in the pen beyond this year. He should be in the rotation in 2008, it doesn't matter who they bump.

[DrWood]

just list a few dominant closers that didn't qualify as either: 1) fireballers; 2) changeup or other "special" pitch specialist.

 

can't think of anyone that can't crack 90, and doesn't have a "special" pitch either, that was a dominant closer in the last 20 years. Those guys are starters or middle relievers.

[Brian the Automator]

You're equating people who throw higher than only 90 mph as fireballers.

[DrWood]

actually, If I had to specify a threshold, a "fireballer" could surpass 94, at least occasionally.

[Brian the Automator]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/99/Dan_quisenberry_autograph.jpg/200px-Dan_quisenberry_autograph.jpg

 

SUPERSTAR!

[DrWood]

pretty sure quiz had a specialty pitch. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Brian the Automator]

[ pretty sure quiz had a specialty pitch. ]

 

Doesn't pretty much every pitcher have an "out" pitch though?

[JoeHova]

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just list a few dominant closers that didn't qualify as either: 1) fireballers; 2) changeup or other "special" pitch specialist.

 

can't think of anyone that can't crack 90, and doesn't have a "special" pitch either, that was a dominant closer in the last 20 years. Those guys are starters or middle relievers.

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This is partly (that is to say, wholly) due to a selection bias that many people have against guys that aren't huge fastballers. People (including MLB people) have in their mind an idea of what a closer should look like and don't like to deviate from that.

 

Also, there have only been 3 long-term dominant closers over the last 15 years (Rivera, Hoffman, Wagner) and 1 of them hasn't thrown hard in years and another only has one pitch (a 93-94 mile an hour cut fastball). I don't see how that's enough of a sample size to say anything definitively.

 

Plus, Villanueva can crack 90, he gets as high as 92 or so. And how can you say he doesn't have a "special" pitch? He gets Ks at a very good rate, which indicates to me that ML hitters seem to think he has one.

[BillScottCanRake]

pretty sure quiz had a specialty pitch.

 

Villanueva's change is approaching Wise-esque status. It's not there yet, but it's getting closer, and it's a very good pitch.

 

And, as Joe said, his velocity tops out at about 92. If he becomes exclusively a single inning guy, I think he'd work more in the 92 range as opposed to topping out there.

[dadofandrew]

Adding onto what Casey said, a ":heavy" workload for a reliever is about 100 innings, most go about 60-80 innings.

 

Fro a starter, 175-200 is normal, but anything over 225 or so is considered a lot.

 

Why? Well, I think it's harder throwing 5 times in a week and a half for 1-2 innings each than it is pitching twice in that span for 100 pitches. Warming up 6-7 times is also harder than warming up twice and throwing lightly between starts.

[1992casey]

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Villanueva's change is approaching Wise-esque status. It's not there yet, but it's getting closer, and it's a very good pitch.

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Does this mean that we can expect the 'defense' behind Villanueva to 'perform' a bit better than it 'performs' for other pitchers? Carlos' current .740 defensive efficiency rating is quite a bit higher than the team's .693 mark or the majors' (approximately) .694 mark.