Do we need to watch Villanueva's innings?

[twobrewers]

We have talked (extensively) about the need to get Yovani enough work - while limiting his innings so as to protect his arm.

 

The goal (I believe) would be to get YoGa around 170 innings this year. So that next year he can be inserted as a full time starter without having to worry too much about overworking him.

 

But with Carlos Villanueva working out of the pen, we are severely limiting his innings. He is on pace for only 113.4 innings this year.

 

I assume (hope) that he will be a part of our rotation going forward. In 2005 he pitched 132.3 innings. In 2006 he pitched 181.40. He was perfectly "stretched" out enough to be a full time starter in 2007.

 

If he only pitches 113 this year - does that limit his chances of being a full time starter next year? Or should he be past that point already since he has shown he can pitch 180 in a year?

 

At the very least, I would like to see Carlos get a few 3 or 4 inning outings when a starting pitcher struggles a little out of the gate. (When you can clearly see that Suppan doesn't have his "stuff" - pull him early and let Carlos get some extra innings)

[LV Brewer Fan]

With CoCo leaving next year (almost a certainty) does anyone else think Carlos could be a great closer for us potentially next year. He doesn't have traditional closer stuff, but neither does Trevor Hoffman, a pitcher I think Carlos is a lot like. I would love him in the rotation too, but I think he would be a pretty solid and cheap option to close games. He seems to have the mentality for it as well, unlike someone like Turnbow.

[rluzinski]

f he only pitches 113 this year - does that limit his chances of being a full time starter next year? Or should he be past that point already since he has shown he can pitch 180 in a year?

 

I would think he'd be fine for 200 innings next year if needed.

 

With CoCo leaving next year (almost a certainty) does anyone else think Carlos could be a great closer for us potentially next year.

 

I think that option is being discussed in about 5 other threads right now. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[igor67]

The research on the innings jumps tends to focus more on developing players and hence younger players. Carlos already having once gone to 180 and being older is less risky than Yo. That's not to say that he won't experience some bumps pitching more innings, but he shouldn't have the increased injury risk and probable decline the following year that tends to plague big innings jumpers.

[1992casey]

twobrewers, this is a great topic. I've been wondering the same thing, but I did kind of predict that Russ and igor would come up with the answers they did.

 

Funny thing is when I saw your thread title, I thought we'd be talking about a 2007 innings limit ala Gallardo. That shouldn't be necessary at all at this point.

 

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I think that option is being discussed in about 5 other threads right now. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

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Yeah, that Villanueva closer talk is scattered all over the place. It'd be better to use one of the other threads and let this one concentrate in the innings issue.

[JoeHova]

It's an interesting question. Assuming that he stays a reliever for the rest of this year and is going to be a starter next year, I hope they keep him around 180 innings in 2008. He'll still only be 24, which is pretty young, and a 100 inning increase over the previous year would be too much, imo.

[1992casey]

As a gauge, I guess we can look at players who've missed time to injury and see how their innings have been handled. For instance, here's Manny Parra:

 

2003: 138 2/3

2004: 73 1/3

2005: 91.0

2006: 86.0

2007: 95 2/3

 

It seems that the team is willing to let Manny pitch quite a bit in the foreseeable future.

[EAsports28]

The first second I looked at this, I thought it was a joke, as in "When CV is pitching, go ahead and make yourself a sandwich, because when you come back the inning will be over: three up, three down, lead protected."

 

But it's late at night and I'm not thinking straight, so that actually isn't what the topic meant. But, the above statement still pretty much holds true. (not to jinx him or anything)

[DHonks]

I would think he'd be fine for 200 innings next year if needed.

 

agreed. He's throwing much more between starts, as he gets up at least once a week in the pen without getting into the game. I'm more concerned about guys that throw with 100% effort, and Carlos seems in control out there.

[adambr2]

I thought you meant do we need to watch his innings, as in do we need to actually be watching the game when Carlos is throwing.

 

I was going to answer, "Not really." When Villanueva pitches, that's where I usually go take the snack/bathroom break, as I am usually pretty confident that he's just going to throw another scoreless inning.

[twobrewers]

I actually found my own answer today. I had never thought about comparing him to a young pitcher coming off of an injury. But that seems a reasonable comparison.

 

Our own Chris Capuano pitched 175.2 innings in 2003.He then threw only 100.5 in 2004.

 

In 2005 he pitched 219.0 for the Brewers. That was a huge jump of 119 innings in one year. So apparently once your arm is ready for full time duty - one down year doesn't offset that.

 

(Of course, you could argue that Cappy has had some poor second halfs of the season, presumably from a tired arm - but no real injury to speak of.

[hauser42]

I would like to know who Villanueva is goig to replace in the rotation next year?? Sheets, Suppan, Yo, Cappy, Bush/Vargas. I don't see the room for him to be starting, unless Brewers clear a spot for him.

 

 

Lot of talk about him closing, but I don't think he will be the first option to close games at the start of next season. Maybe I'm missing something but he really doesn't have a dominating pitch or pitches to strike people out.

[homer]

Quote:

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I don't see the room for him to be starting, unless Brewers clear a spot for him.

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I think the consensus is that Vargas is gone after this year.

[hauser42]

I think the consensus is that Vargas is gone after this year.

 

So that is only one spot and Yo would be taking that spot, still no opening for him.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think the conventional wisdom for young pitchers is that you do not want to increase their workload by more than 25 IP in a year.

 

2004 -- 114

2005 -- 132

2006 -- 181

 

Of course last year our rotation was tore up by injuries, and pitchers like Turnbow were rendered useless -- so my guess bumping CV up to 181 last year was more out of necessity than design.

 

The other interesting aspect is that CV pitched most of 06 as a starter. I think that if we keep using CV as we are (long-relief, spot starting) we will be just fine.

[Fike85]

When will Villy replace Vargas in the rotation? Nothing against Vargas, who could start on pretty much every team on in the Majors, it's just that I have a fever and the only cure is more Villanueva!

[jlau20]

When will Villy replace Vargas in the rotation?

 

I'm still not sure why people want Vargas replaced in the rotation.

 

Sure, he's good for 4 2/3 innings, 5 2/3 on a good day it seems, but the bottom line for me is that when he starts, the team wins.

 

Another plus is that even with him pitching 4+ to 6 innings a game, the bullpen, when the rotation is setup with Vargas 5 and Sheets 1, will have relief the next day in most cases.

 

If we're going to talk about CV taking anyones spot in the rotation I would say Bush. That is if Bush continues to be inconsistent.

 

Otherwise I see nothing wrong with having CV and Yo in the pen ready for long relief in a Vargas, Bush, or occasional Suppan start.

[1992casey]

If we're going to get into comparing pitchers for the rotation, we ought to be using this thread:

 

Gallardo is Better Than Bush/Vargas

[DHonks]

but the bottom line for me is that when he starts, the team wins.

 

You know, I think we can acquire Wayne Franklin rather cheaply to be the ace along side Vargas

[PeaveyFury]

Well, the Franklin thing was a pretty big fluke, as the guy had like a 5.50 ERA, while Vargas is around 4. He's keeping them in it, and the bullpen is holding on, not a run being scored in the 8th inning in a game that Franklin left in the 5th.

 

And afterall, Franklin DID have 13 losses that year....

[rluzinski]

In his last start, Vargas gave up 4 earned runs in 5 IP vs. Houston but since the teams wins, so it's a good start. The start before, he gives up 4 earned runs in 5 IP vs. San Fran but gets the win, so it's a very good start.

 

Yesterday, Bush gives up 4 earned runs (including a blown "safe" call at home) in 6 IP yesterday and gets the loss, so he did bad. In Bush's only loss in June, he once again gives up 4 ER in 6 IP but the offense never gets going, so it's another bad start.

 

In summary:

 

4 ER in 5 IP + Run Support = Good Outing

 

4 ER in 6 IP + No Run Support = Bad outing

[Fatter than Joey]

In Bush's only loss in June, he once again gives up 4 ER in 6 IP but the offense never gets going, so it's another bad start.

 

4 ER in 6 IP is what it is regardless of the run support, it is probably what you are going to see on an average start from your 4-5 guys. Of course Russ is right in what he says.

 

The only difference I see is in the bottom line, results.

 

Vargas is 6-1 (Brewers 12-2) 4.2 ERA

Bush is 6-6 (Brewers 7-10) 5.1 ERA.

 

If we are going to trade Vargas, I would say his results are quite an asset to his trade value. I would rather keep him in the rotation and not damage his trade value, keep Villy in the pen, or move Bush to the pen (and move Bush back later if needed).

[1992casey]

Bush/Vargas comparisons belong in this thread:

 

Gallardo is Better Than Bush/Vargas

[JoeHova]

Quote:

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Lot of talk about him closing, but I don't think he will be the first option to close games at the start of next season. Maybe I'm missing something but he really doesn't have a dominating pitch or pitches to strike people out.

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Well, in his ML career as a reliever, he's struck out 7.9 guys per 9 innings. In his minor league career, he struck out 8.9 guys per 9 innings.

 

His minor league K numbers are superior to Derrick Turnbow and Francisco Cordero's and his major league K numbers are not far behind (both of them are around 8.8 Ks per 9 in their ML careers).

 

Villy is a strikeout pitcher, despite his lack of a devestating fastball.

[DrWood]

the admitted "soft-tossing lefty" we just picked up has a high strikeout/inning rate, but he's not going to get groomed to be a closer.

 

You have to bring heat (almost all closers) or have a devastating changeup (hoffman) to close. Villanueva as a set-up guy, maybe. Not as a closer.

 

BTW, when I went to this thread I thought it was about Villanueva getting used too much. I do have a concern, not about innings, but about frequency of use.