Article: Why the Brewers Need to Sign Willy Adames to an Extension Now, and What It'll Cost

[Matthew Trueblood]

We're inside four weeks from Opening Day, and the Brewers don't have a contract extension with either Brandon Woodruff or Willy Adames. That needs to change, and it needs to be an Adames deal that changes it, and it needs to happen now, to protect the fans from Matt Arnold and Matt Arnold from himself.

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

If there had been any lingering hope for a price drop on signing Willy Adames to a long-term deal, it disintegrated last week, when Manny Machado signed his 11-year, $350-million extension with the Padres. No, the Brewers aren’t using the Padres as their measuring stick, and no, Adames is not Machado, but remember, Adames had already been forthright and public about his awareness of big deals signed by free-agent infielders in recent years. There is a floor for Willy Adames, and it’s something akin to what the Cubs paid for Dansby Swanson this winter: $177 million over seven seasons, starting at age 29. 

Willy Adames reiterated he would like to remain with the Brewers long-term. But he also saw the insane contracts doled out to free-agent SSs in the off-season: pic.twitter.com/sfKdfwxkcF

— Todd Rosiak (@Todd_Rosiak) February 22, 2023

Of course, Adames is only 27 right now, and the Brewers could capture some discount by guaranteeing him that kind of deal two years early. It’s just that they’d have to guarantee 2024 in the process. In effect, the deal that would bring Adames to the table down in Arizona right now is probably a nine-year contract. He might get a slight bump in his 2023 pay, the big raise he would see in 2024 anyway, and then most of the aforementioned money he could get in free agency. Let’s call it $205 million, in total, through 2031. It’s possible the team could reduce the guaranteed money to the coward’s side of $200 million, by getting the final year of the deal as a club option, but that might also require them to grant Adames an opt-out sometime during the deal.

That’s a huge sum, for a player about whom there are still some reasonable questions. Playing a bit banged up at times, Adames did come back to Earth somewhat at the plate last season. He has an offensive approach (many strikeouts, an inconsistent walk rate, an overall profile dependent upon power and BABIP) that tends not to age well, and while his raw range at shortstop is quite good, he’s not as efficient about converting his chances into outs as one might like. 

Still, the team needs to do this, and they need to do it now. Fan morale is a small and insufficient reason to make this kind of investment, but at the moment, it’s a valid consideration for the club. More importantly, though, there were those big deals that were handed out this winter–to Swanson, Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts, and to Machado. Those are market-setters, and thanks to next winter’s thin free-agent crop, they’ll still be the relevant comparison points if Adames is allowed to reach free agency.

There’s one more crucial reason why Adames needs to sign now, though, and it’s not a nine-figure contract. Rather, it’s the Dodgers’ newfound thirst for a shortstop. Gavin Lux’s injury means that that team will need a shortstop. They probably won’t go get one right away, preferring to let Miguel Rojas man the position. By midseason, though, if they intend to keep pace with Machado’s and Bogaerts’s Padres, they’re going to be making calls. Adames is going to be the best shortstop even remotely available at that stage.

If the Brewers are a fringe Wild Card contender when that time comes, Arnold is going to end up trading Adames. That’s just the reality of the team’s way of doing business. Trading Josh Hader last July was just one example of their ruthless fealty to value. The Dodgers, with a perpetually deep farm system and the big-league depth needed to make their youngsters expendable, will offer Arnold a lot of value. They can really help the Brewers sustain their pipeline of young pitching. They have toolsy outfielders to burn.

Here’s the thing: the Brewers have great pitching and very toolsy outfielders. They’ve become stunningly good at churning out the former, and they’re at a high point in the tide cycle with the latter. This team can be together for another few years, with the greatest responsibilities slowly migrating from the likes of Christian Yelich and Corbin Burnes to those of Jackson Chourio and Aaron Ashby. They acquired a catcher they hope will be an anchor in the middle of the diamond for years to come.

What they don’t really have, either on the MLB roster or in their system, is an excellent power-hitting shortstop. If they trade away the one they have and don’t get a similarly rare player in return, Arnold and his reshaped front office will have created a big and difficult job for themselves, rather than making anything easier. Only signing Adames to a big deal now can help him avoid that long temptation, though. 

One of these days I'm just gonna make a full Adames highlight reel of great shortstop plays.

I love watching him play the position. pic.twitter.com/GbDWIIHQ86

— Dominic Cotroneo (@Dom_Cotroneo) September 15, 2022

That’s not to mention Adames, the person. He’s an extraordinary leader, an easy face for a franchise, and someone who can keep the clubhouse bilingual, communicative, and upbeat. He’s the guy for whom you overspend a bit, if it makes the difference between having him and not having him.

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[MrTPlush]

$200mil for a guy who strikes out almost 30% of the time and failed to manage a .300 OBP last year?

A small market cannot afford to take that risk. I’d rather throw $50mil+ at Jackson Chourio.

 

[Jopal78]

Plus when the starting pitcher unit breaks up over the next 12-16 months, the Brewers are not going to want to players soaking up 50-60 million dollars a year while the team wins 75 games. 
 

The same applies to Adames that Cleveland’s Dolan said regarding Lindor “Enjoy him”.

[brewerralph]

56 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

$200mil for a guy who strikes out almost 30% of the time and failed to manage a .300 OBP last year?

A small market cannot afford to take that risk. I’d rather throw $50mil+ at Jackson Chourio.

 

You are right on. No way can a small market put themselves in a position where they could be in a financial nightmare for years. It would be nice to keep the players that stand out. I would love to see Woody sign {especially after hearing the conversation I heard with Dominic Cotroneo}, but I also know we would need a major discount. Willy has just too many holes in his play. 

[Thurston Fluff]

This falls in the category of not learning from experience. A team like ours should hardly ever sign players to long, pricey contracts. Certainly not more than one at a time. We'd have to fill the roster full of minimum wage guys just to field a team around Yelich and Adames.

[sveumrules]

Adames and Swanson are in the same tier of SS, but with Adames two years out from free agency I’d say Dansby’s deal is more of a ceiling than a floor for Willy.

I think a serious opening offer would be something like 7/151 (24: $13M | 25-30: $23M). Bump his salary from $8.7M this year to an even nine million and you can announce it as 8/160.

Love Willy, and think his defense would be fine at 3B as he ages off SS into his thirties, but I’d be nervous giving that kind of money to someone with his plate discipline profile, personally.

$49M a year from 25-28 is a lot of risk to tie up in Yelich’s back and Willy’s hack.

He might not have Adames power profile, but if Turang’s glove is as good as advertised he should be a perfectly cromulent MLB SS at a fraction of the cost.

[brewcrewdue80]

3 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

$200mil for a guy who strikes out almost 30% of the time and failed to manage a .300 OBP last year?

A small market cannot afford to take that risk. I’d rather throw $50mil+ at Jackson Chourio.

 

This.

You need to consider where they may prefer putting 20-30Mil a year investment.  Chourio, Wiemer, Frelick, Mitchell.  You toss multiple 6-14M seasons on these guys over 7-8year time frame over a single 18-23M year SS. A position becoming loaded with talent. Everyone is starting out at SS. Chourio was signed as a SS and his talent/speed moved him into OF. 

When you think about future returns on trades. You're stacked at OF and if talented SS are growing left and right, that position could actually be one filled now vs blocked.

There are 14 SS listed to start the season in top 50 ranks.  22 overall in top 100. In any Burnes/Wodruff/Adames trade you'll want at least 1 top 50 prospect.  SSs occupy over 1/4 of that group.

[Outlander]

The Brewers certainly don't need to extend Adams. There is not another few years as you state. Clearly there is a couple of year window here but if they struggle they should absolutely look to trade him for a nice package of players.

[wallus]

Love Willy and he is my favorite player on the team. However, unless he takes a discount (and it doesn't sound like he will), you have to trade him.

I would rather throw money at Frelick, Chourio, etc to try and get an extra year or two of free agency years out of them.

We can really only throw "big" money at one or two guys and unfortunately Yelich was who they made the decision on for one of them.

[jerichoholicninja]

What about Willy makes people think he's a top flight SS? I mean he's certainly good but in no way do I see him as a guy you pay up to hold on to.

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

$200mil for a guy who strikes out almost 30% of the time and failed to manage a .300 OBP last year?

A small market cannot afford to take that risk. I’d rather throw $50mil+ at Jackson Chourio.

 

I don't see how the two actions are related, though. If Chourio signs a deal, he'll be paid - at most - a few millions bucks a year for 3-ish years and then increasing from there. By the time Chourio is making real money, Yelich is off the books or close to it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Adames and Swanson are in the same tier of SS, but with Adames two years out from free agency I’d say Dansby’s deal is more of a ceiling than a floor for Willy.

I think a serious opening offer would be something like 7/151 (24: $13M | 25-30: $23M). Bump his salary from $8.7M this year to an even nine million and you can announce it as 8/160.

Love Willy, and think his defense would be fine at 3B as he ages off SS into his thirties, but I’d be nervous giving that kind of money to someone with his plate discipline profile, personally.

$49M a year from 25-28 is a lot of risk to tie up in Yelich’s back and Willy’s hack.

He might not have Adames power profile, but if Turang’s glove is as good as advertised he should be a perfectly cromulent MLB SS at a fraction of the cost.

Willy's on-base skills are really the only thing that scares me about him but they're pretty damned scary.

I tend to be of the camp "don't care what's on the farm" when it comes to shortstops and centerfielders. You can literally never have too many of either and the failure rate on both is exceptional. Many become decent players but MLB tends to expose enough chinks in a player's armor that they easily become unplayable at a premium position. Maybe they don't hit enough. Their routes are a little sloppy. Their arm isn't strong enough. We've all seen it a hundred times, a guy rockets through the system as a SS only to play 40 MLB games there and moving to second base or a utility role.

It's easy to fall down the defensive ladder and incredibly hard to climb up it. If I can reasonably keep what I know is a proven MLB starter at short or center, I'm usually not going to let pieces on the farm influence my attempts to keep that player. You can always move one of those players to second/third and make your defensive alignment even better should both prove to be capable at the more premium position.

I'm not saying they need to keep Adames at all costs but it'd be a big mistake not to legitimately try.

[Brewcrew82]

Honestly, aces are harder to come by these days than high-level shortstops. So, if we’re going to extend anybody, it should really be Woodruff. Something along the lines of Zack Wheeler and Luis Castillo, who were of similar age to Woodruff when they signed their deals, would be great for the Brewers. Would allow us to extend our starting pitching dominance as our young position player talent (Chourio, Frelick, Wiemer, Mitchell, Turang, etc.) comes of age. Also would help compensate for our current lack of high-ceiling pitching prospects in the upper minors. 

Adames is just too dangerous to extend imo due to the questions surrounding his contact ability and plate discipline, as well as the huge price spike in the SS market this winter. Once his defense starts to decline, which it likely will within the first couple years or so of an extension, his overall value will drop significantly and we could end up with a situation even worse than Yelich. 

[brewcrewdue80]

4 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

This.

You need to consider where they may prefer putting 20-30Mil a year investment.  Chourio, Wiemer, Frelick, Mitchell.  You toss multiple 6-14M seasons on these guys over 7-8year time frame over a single 18-23M year SS. A position becoming loaded with talent. Everyone is starting out at SS. Chourio was signed as a SS and his talent/speed moved him into OF. 

When you think about future returns on trades. You're stacked at OF and if talented SS are growing left and right, that position could actually be one filled now vs blocked.

There are 14 SS listed to start the season in top 50 ranks.  22 overall in top 100. In any Burnes/Wodruff/Adames trade you'll want at least 1 top 50 prospect.  SSs occupy over 1/4 of that group.

Scanning just a few of those SS. Minnesota has 2 top 50 SS. #31 Brooks Lee 8th pick last year. And Royce Lewis #1 overall 2017 at #45.  So an example on a return I'd assume Woodruff as a Twins target and getting Lee Priellip 2nd rd pick, 1 of either Kirilloff(unlikely) or Jose Miranda(more likely) 

 

You'd never consider this trade if you extended Adames.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Honestly, aces are harder to come by these days than high-level shortstops. So, if we’re going to extend anybody, it should really be Woodruff. Something along the lines of Zack Wheeler and Luis Castillo, who were of similar age to Woodruff when they signed their deals, would be great for the Brewers. Would allow us to extend our starting pitching dominance as our young position player talent (Chourio, Frelick, Wiemer, Mitchell, Turang, etc.) comes of age. Also would help compensate for our current lack of high-ceiling pitching prospects in the upper minors. 

Adames is just too dangerous to extend imo due to the questions surrounding his contact ability and plate discipline, as well as the huge price spike in the SS market this winter. Once his defense starts to decline, which it likely will within the first couple years or so of an extension, his overall value will drop significantly and we could end up with a situation even worse than Yelich. 

I agree that I'd target Woodruff first and foremost but ultimately, it comes down to dollars and performance. While slightly favoring a Woody extension, I'd ultimately extend the player who is willing to sign for the dollars and years that most closely align with their projected performance.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Scanning just a few of those SS. Minnesota has 2 top 50 SS. #31 Brooks Lee 8th pick last year. And Royce Lewis #1 overall 2017 at #45.  So an example on a return I'd assume Woodruff as a Twins target and getting Lee Priellip 2nd rd pick, 1 of either Kirilloff(unlikely) or Jose Miranda(more likely) 

You'd never consider this trade if you extended Adames.

I used Burnes in BTV because I think their value for Woodruff is pretty broken. It's fair value based on BTV but I just don't see the Twins doing this for logistical reasons. First, they'd lose Miranda - a staple of the lineup going forward - and I'm not sure they're ready to trade Lee.

Which is a good illustration of how difficult it is to make a trade in MLB. Both teams could improve in the short-term (Twins) and mid-term (Brewers) but I don't see either team being willing to make the trade for personnel reasons. Woodruff makes the Twins better but not a lot better. The floor they'd be replacing with Woodruff might already be something around a 1.5-2 WAR starter.

[brewcrewdue80]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I used Burnes in BTV because I think their value for Woodruff is pretty broken. It's fair value based on BTV but I just don't see the Twins doing this for logistical reasons. First, they'd lose Miranda - a staple of the lineup going forward - and I'm not sure they're ready to trade Lee.

Which is a good illustration of how difficult it is to make a trade in MLB. Both teams could improve in the short-term (Twins) and mid-term (Brewers) but I don't see either team being willing to make the trade for personnel reasons. Woodruff makes the Twins better but not a lot better. The floor they'd be replacing with Woodruff might already be something around a 1.5-2 WAR starter.

And that's all good. More of just an example of what a trade can look like when you don't have a SS locked in for 6/7years at 17+Mil a season. With the OF&C looking set for next 7seasons you squeeze even more at SS with Adames extension the trade options and quality of a return potentially.  If you take away the SS options what can Minnesota even offer logically to acquire Woody? You're removing an entire trade team option and there is a lot of 2024 players turning FA.  I guess there's always the 3rd team route.

[JimH5]

We just saw how they treated Burnes in arbitration.  I'm doubtful they will handle Adames or Woodruff any diffently.  

They don't know if Bally Sports is going to make payments on local broadcast rights.  Tickets are not being sold in the pre-pandemic volume.  They chose not to do a Fanfest winter event.  Attanasio just bought into a soccer team.  They're already on the hook for sunk costs in the Yelich deal.  

Don't get your hopes up (or your ire up) on extending those guys.  Signs are pointing the other way.

[MrTPlush]

23 hours ago, JimH5 said:

We just saw how they treated Burnes in arbitration.  I'm doubtful they will handle Adames or Woodruff any diffently.  

We actually don’t really know how he was treated.

We handled all three the same. Two of them decided to avoid arbitration completely and the other decided to test his luck…then lost and then pouted.

You aren’t really wrong about all three almost surely about to be on their way out though. At least with Adames/Woodruff someone can have a pipe dream it is possible to sign them (not me though).

[jay87shot]

I can't see us keeping Willy, either he hits like 2021 (.285, 20 hr's in 365 abs) or like last year (.238/.298/.756 30 HR). Either way he either prices himself out of town or his offensive production isn't worth 25-ish million. If we can find a way to extend someone Woodruff makes more sense, using a previous point that solid SS are easier to find than an ace. We have 2 solid replacement options in Turang and Eric Brown (potentially). 

I would give all the young guys good looks this year and try and get Braves like extensions for Turang, Mitchell, Contreras, Frelick, Weimer, Williams (maybe), Gasser (???). 

The only way we keep Willy is if we trade Yeli and I can't see us sending Yeli off without taking a big contract and making a Willy extension possible.

[kestrel79]

With the Yeli contract on the books can't see this happening. He'll be traded and we can hopefully get some young pitching in return to match our young hitting prospects we have now in camp that are getting close.

Hoping we can somehow resign one of our stud pitchers too but it's going to be tough with the FA money being thrown around. Can only hope for some good trades and a quick reload like 2016-2017 was.

[KeithStone53151]

I think the Brewers front office has done an absolutely phenomenal job creating a pretty large window of competitiveness. That said, I think it closes with Burnes/Woodruff and retooling will be needed. It's not likely 32 year old Willy Adames is the guy we want as part of the next competitive window. For me, that's likely the case unless this combination of Peralta/Ashby/Turang/Mitchell/Weimer/Frelick/Chourio are the game changers we hope they are. I would like to see the Brewers gauge an extension for Adames based on how those guys do this year as a whole. If that young core can carry a competitive roster, then we might be able to be competitive right away and those first few years of Adames will be on a competitive roster. If not, there's no reason to shell out the $$ so Adames can get us from 68 to 72 wins.

A couple small notes, the Brewers will be a lot of fun over the next few years if the position players pan out...we could be scoring a lot of runs and baserunning could be a lot of fun to watch. One argument in favor of Adames that I haven't seen, he's a big energy guy and that's great for a clubhouse. The jolt he gave the Brewers upon acquisition was huge, his energy was infectious all the way through the clubhouse and we started winning like crazy.

[Jake McKibbin]

4 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I think the Brewers front office has done an absolutely phenomenal job creating a pretty large window of competitiveness. That said, I think it closes with Burnes/Woodruff and retooling will be needed. It's not likely 32 year old Willy Adames is the guy we want as part of the next competitive window. For me, that's likely the case unless this combination of Peralta/Ashby/Turang/Mitchell/Weimer/Frelick/Chourio are the game changers we hope they are. I would like to see the Brewers gauge an extension for Adames based on how those guys do this year as a whole. If that young core can carry a competitive roster, then we might be able to be competitive right away and those first few years of Adames will be on a competitive roster. If not, there's no reason to shell out the $$ so Adames can get us from 68 to 72 wins.

A couple small notes, the Brewers will be a lot of fun over the next few years if the position players pan out...we could be scoring a lot of runs and baserunning could be a lot of fun to watch. One argument in favor of Adames that I haven't seen, he's a big energy guy and that's great for a clubhouse. The jolt he gave the Brewers upon acquisition was huge, his energy was infectious all the way through the clubhouse and we started winning like crazy.

I think this is a great point... for example, I love Willy and would love him to stay here, but I do think Woody is probably the signing that adds most value per $ in the system. I think Turang is developing and showing a lot of growth, particularly if there's any semblance of power this season. If Turang has a 700 OPS this season at 22, maybe even using WAR lets say a 2 WAR season, I think they'll take him over Willy due to the cost differential

But pitching is needed, and Woodruff looks prime

[DR28]

I'm fine letting Burnes and Adames walk but we really need to find a way to lock up Brandon... He really seems like the most likely one that we can sign.

Woodruff/Peralta/Ashby/Misio/Gasser would be a great rotation to run out there with Yelich/Frelick or Mitchell/Wiemer roaming our OF.

[nate82]

At this time it is better to extend players like Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, Turang, Chourio and others.

For Adames right now it makes more sense to go the free agent route.  The amount of money being thrown around for free agents is just insane right now.  I don't believe it would be prudent for the Brewers to sign Adames to a contract similar to Swanson.  At a minimum I think Adames gets the Swanson deal and I just don't believe that would be a good idea for the Brewers.