Article: Projecting the Brewers' Opening Day Roster Without Injured Tyrone Taylor

[Matthew Trueblood]

In a week of lousy injury news throughout the league, the Brewers caught a heavy blow Wednesday. Craig Counsell announced that Tyrone Taylor had to receive an injection in his injured elbow, and is likely to miss the first month of the season. How will the Brewers fill out their early-season roster without him?

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The timing of this injury is less than ideal for the Brewers, but with at-bats to spread among Jackson Chourio, Joey Wiemer, and Sal Frelick (in addition to their regular outfielders) this spring, they won't feel the sting as deeply as Tyrone Taylor himself. For him, the timing is downright cruel. He was penciled in as a regular for this team, flexing between center and right field, and his hot September was supported by some mechanical changes that augured well for his 2023 campaign. Now, he has to reset himself physically; hope his elbow recovers smoothly from here (no guarantee, that); and try to carry over those improvements once he re-joins the team.

In the meantime, let's dig into the question of whom the Brewers will take north with them, now that Taylor can be crossed off the list of candidates. There are 13 position-player spots available come Opening Day, and a fistful of them are locked down already.

Catchers

William Contreras
Victor Caratini

Infielders

Rowdy Tellez
Luis Urias
Willy Adames
Brian Anderson

Outfielders

Christian Yelich
Garrett Mitchell
Jesse Winker

That's nine guys, already. As we've highlighted over the last couple of weeks, though, there are plenty of open battles for the remaining spots. On the infield, there's Abraham Toro, Brice Turang, Mike Brosseau, Keston Hiura, and Luke Voit. In the outfield, there are prospects Wiemer and Frelick, plus Tyler Naquin. Those seven were in an even tighter battle when we all assumed Taylor would be taking up one outfield slot, but having just four roster spots for the group of them is a sufficient squeeze to make things interesting.

First, let's tackle Turang. So far this spring, Urías has gotten most of his reps at second base, and Turang has played a lot of short. That would tend to indicate that the team envisions sending Turang back to Nashville for some seasoning come April. Even if that hadn't been the case, though, the Taylor injury would nudge them in that direction. The most natural and likely replacements for Taylor in terms of outfield defense are Naquin and Frelick, both of whom are left-handed hitters. Yelich, Mitchell, and Winker are lefties. Tellez is a lefty, and Caratini is a switch-hitter. Assuming one of Naquin or Frelick slides into the picture now, the team needs a right-handed bat more than another left-handed one.

Anderson will probably slide to right field much more often than previously planned, in the short term, so third base now opens up somewhat. With Urías looking awfully good at second thus far, though, and with Toro more natural at the hot corner than Turang, it seems more likely that Toro gets the newly available regular gig.

At that point, things start to fall into place better. Mike Brosseau's right-handed bat is more valuable than ever, and his defensive versatility and comfort in a backup role make him an easy call over stashing Turang on the bench. Spring looks could still determine the winner of the battled between Frelick and Naquin for the final outfield gig, Neither is on the 40-man roster, so there's no advantage there. Neither is a good defensive center fielder, which is where Wiemer could theoretically assert himself. On balance, though, based on his experience in center in the majors and his demonstrated ability to hit righties for power, I'm betting on Naquin getting the nod.

Add these three to the previous nine, then.

Infielders

Mike Brosseau
Abraham Toro

Outfielders

Tyler Naquin

That only leaves one spot to assign, and the remaining candidates are Frelick, Voit, and Wiemer. The loss of Taylor's glove makes it tempting to carry one of the rookies and juggle playing time in the outfield and at DH as needed, but it's likely that Voit has an opt-out in his minor-league deal. At the moment, Voit seems like the best fit. He can provide some of the right-handed punch the team has been lacking, and he can complement both Tellez and Winker at first base and DH. 

None of that is set in stone, of course. The Brewers have an unusual amount of uncertainty for a team of their caliber this spring, and Taylor's injury has only raised that level.

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[TURBO]

If we are going to rely on Winker and Naquin as outfielders with any substantial amount of playing time, while we have guys like Frelick and Wiemer just banging on that door, it will be a travesty.

EVERY game counts (as we once again found out last season), we need to put the best team on the field from day one.  If that means Frelick starts from the 1st game on, so be it.

[Brewcrew82]

Frelick and Naquin aren’t comparable in terms of their ability to play CF. Naquin is legitimately bad in RF and even worse in CF. Frelick, meanwhile, is rated by prospect outlets as above average, with FanGraphs being a clear outlier. He’s not quite at the ability of Mitchell, but he‘s more than capable of playing there at this point. 

[Brewcrew82]

18 minutes ago, TURBO said:

If we are going to rely on Winker and Naquin as outfielders with any substantial amount of playing time, while we have guys like Frelick and Wiemer just banging on that door, it will be a travesty.

EVERY game counts (as we once again found out last season), we need to put the best team on the field from day one.  If that means Frelick starts from the 1st game on, so be it.

Watch the Cardinals go with Walker as their OD starting RF, while we keep Frelick and Wiemer down until June so we can not only get that extra year of control, but also save Mark $ in a few years.

[Playing Catch]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Frelick and Naquin aren’t comparable in terms of their ability to play CF. Naquin is legitimately bad in RF and even worse in CF. Frelick, meanwhile, is rated by prospect outlets as above average

I didn't realize this. I had it in my head that Naquin was a good OFer, defensively. If it's true that he's bad, I too, do not care to have Naquin on the roster.

[wibadgers23]

Winker absolutely should not even sniff the outfield grass.  That would be a disaster.

[wiguy94]

16 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

I didn't realize this. I had it in my head that Naquin was a good OFer, defensively. If it's true that he's bad, I too, do not care to have Naquin on the roster.

Naquin is a terrible CF. He's playable in RF. 1800 innings in RF in his career with -1 DRS, -1.7 UZR/150, -9 OAA. That's pretty comparable to what Renfroe is in RF.

[wallus]

I would bet money on seeing Winker in the OF and Frelick not making the OD roster. History tells me so.

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

Winker absolutely should not even sniff the outfield grass.  That would be a disaster.

It's probably fine if you run him out once a week in RF if he's hitting. More than twice a week and you're asking for trouble.

[SF70]

18 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Watch the Cardinals go with Walker as their OD starting RF, while we keep Frelick and Wiemer down until June so we can not only get that extra year of control, but also save Mark $ in a few years.

Saving Mark money?

That’s not the reason the team will keep the trio down for the minimum 15 days.

Its all about the extra year isn’t it? And it absolutely should be. We all know this SM team has to max out their talent to have a chance to compete long-term, and to pretend that shouldn’t be the priority, imo, is sorta ridiculous.

If the team is going to extend any of the trio they need that extra year as leverage as well. That should be the priority, not potentially losing that year just to have them rostered OD.

[brewerralph]

41 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Saving Mark money?

That’s not the reason the team will keep the trio down for the minimum 15 days.

Its all about the extra year isn’t it? And it absolutely should be. We all know this SM team has to max out their talent to have a chance to compete long-term, and to pretend that shouldn’t be the priority, imo, is sorta ridiculous.

If the team is going to extend any of the trio they need that extra year as leverage as well. That should be the priority, not potentially losing that year just to have them rostered OD.

You couldn't have said that better.

[Outlander]

It isn't that hard to keep Wiemer and Frelick down 15 days during the year. Would rather have either one ahead of Naquin to start the year. Can always send down one when Taylor comes back due to a numbers game or send one down and bring one up if they need to work on something. It's pretty easy to do when their top prospects are all outfielders.

[SF70]

14 minutes ago, Outlander said:

It isn't that hard to keep Wiemer and Frelick down 15 days during the year. Would rather have either one ahead of Naquin to start the year. Can always send down one when Taylor comes back due to a numbers game or send one down and bring one up if they need to work on something. It's pretty easy to do when their top prospects are all outfielders.

It’ll be interesting sending them back to Nashville if they rake while rostered. Plus it forces the team to roster ahead of when they might want to. Just easier going with Naquin/Anderson in RF.

[Brewcrew82]

5 hours ago, SF70 said:

Saving Mark money?

That’s not the reason the team will keep the trio down for the minimum 15 days.

Its all about the extra year isn’t it? And it absolutely should be. We all know this SM team has to max out their talent to have a chance to compete long-term, and to pretend that shouldn’t be the priority, imo, is sorta ridiculous.

If the team is going to extend any of the trio they need that extra year as leverage as well. That should be the priority, not potentially losing that year just to have them rostered OD.

I was talking about the Super 2 deadline. That’s more than just a couple weeks. And the sole purpose would indeed be to save Mark $.

I agree the extra year of control is important for a small market team like the Brewers. That doesn’t mean it’s not frustrating that the Cardinals have the ability to install their top prospects in the OD lineup to maximize the team’s ability to win games while we have to keep ours down. Especially after last season when we missed the playoffs by a single game. If we’re going to go for one more run with Corbin, Woody, and Willy, then we should be all in with our best players.

 

[SF70]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I was talking about the Super 2 deadline. That’s more than just a couple weeks. And the sole purpose would indeed be to save Mark $.

I agree the extra year of control is important for a small market team like the Brewers. That doesn’t mean it’s not frustrating that the Cardinals have the ability to install their top prospects in the OD lineup to maximize the team’s ability to win games while we have to keep ours down. Especially after last season when we missed the playoffs by a single game. If we’re going to go for one more run with Corbin, Woody, and Willy, then we should be all in with our best players.

 

I get that, and it is frustrating, but like with Hiura, I don’t see the team keeping Frelick in Nashville until S2, just to gain the extra arby year. 

[JohnBriggs12]

What about Owen Miller?  Isn't he in the infield mix as well?