Tyrone Taylor out for the first month of the season

[MVP2110]

34 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Difference is Naquin would have played less with Taylor. His bat against RHP is more useful in short stints. Over the long run, he’s barely above replacement level. 

In your scenario, Naquin will get pretty much all of the ABs in RF vs RHP. There’s a reason why he was available as a NRI so late in the off-season.

Are we sure about that? A Naquin/Taylor platoon in RF seemed fairly likely and now it seems easy enough to put Brosseau in the Taylor role with Anderson flipping between 3b & RF. I feel like Naquin's projected role hasn't changed much and he's probably only on the team until Frelick comes up unless more injuries occur

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, MVP2110 said:

Are we sure about that? A Naquin/Taylor platoon in RF seemed fairly likely and now it seems easy enough to put Brosseau in the Taylor role with Anderson flipping between 3b & RF. I feel like Naquin's projected role hasn't changed much and he's probably only on the team until Frelick comes up unless more injuries occur

Yeah, I’m pretty sure. Taylor doesn’t have sharp splits and was already an everyday-type player last season. It wasn’t even a guarantee that Naquin made the OD roster as a NRI. And if he did, I don’t think he would’ve gotten all the at-bats against RHP that he presumably will now.

 

[MVP2110]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, I’m pretty sure. Taylor doesn’t have sharp splits and was already an everyday-type player last season. It wasn’t even a guarantee that Naquin made the OD roster as a NRI. And if he did, I don’t think he would’ve gotten all the at-bats against RHP that he presumably will now.

 

I guess I just have more faith in a Naquin/Brosseau platoon for a month. It seems fine to me for a short period until Frelick is up or Taylor is healthy. 

[Brewcrew82]

10 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

I guess I just have more faith in a Naquin/Brosseau platoon for a month. It seems fine to me for a short period until Frelick is up or Taylor is healthy. 

That’s what I hope likewise. Taylor would have at least given us production roughly comparable to Renfroe (better defense, worse bat) whereas Naquin was below replacement level last season. He’s okay in small doses because he’s a decent to good hitter against RHP, but anything more than that and we could be in trouble. Hopefully Taylor gets healthy and Frelick comes up and performs and then we can stop worrying.

[DR28]

58 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Difference is Naquin would have played less with Taylor. His bat against RHP is more useful in short stints. Over the long run, he’s barely above replacement level. 

In your scenario, Naquin will get pretty much all of the ABs in RF vs RHP. There’s a reason why he was available as a NRI so late in the off-season.

Idk about that... If TT was healthy most likely would have still been Naquin vs RHP and Taylor vs LHP.

Jurickson Profar is still a FA, doesnt mean anything when we signed him and to what.

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Idk about that... If TT was healthy most likely would have still been Naquin vs RHP and Taylor vs LHP.

Jurickson Profar is still a FA, doesnt mean anything when we signed him and to what.

Profar is a lot better than Naquin (I would actually love it if we signed him at this point). Naquin was below replacement level last season and was still barely above replacement level in 2021 when he OPSd .853 against RHP. Naquin was unsigned because he doesn’t have anything going for him other than his ability to hit RHP.

As I said above, Taylor was likely to play at least some against RHP seeing as he did so last season and has neutral splits. In fact, he was pretty much just as good as Naquin against RHP last season. Not to mention that Taylor is a superior defender.

[monty57]

Injuries suck, but they happen. In most cases when a player is injured, the reserves are a step down. No different here.

It is possible that the Brewers change their mind and decide to keep Frelick up. They could get draft compensation if he's up there in the ROY voting, but they'd lose control over his age 29 season in order for them to get an upgrade for a few weeks this season.

Meanwhile, signing someone like Profar would just keep players like Frelick and Wiemer down when they're probably ready to make the step to the majors.

It's an injury. They'll have more of them this year. They'll get through it, and hopefully the difference between someone like Naquin vs Frelick over a few weeks won't be what keeps us out of the playoffs. Heck, maybe we get lucky and Taylor's replacement gets on a bit of a hot streak during his time in the spotlight.

[DR28]

23 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Profar is a lot better than Naquin (I would actually love it if we signed him at this point). Naquin was below replacement level last season and was still barely above replacement level in 2021 when he OPSd .853 against RHP. Naquin was unsigned because he doesn’t have anything going for him other than his ability to hit RHP.

As I said above, Taylor was likely to play at least some against RHP seeing as he did so last season and has neutral splits. In fact, he was pretty much just as good as Naquin against RHP last season. Not to mention that Taylor is a superior defender.

Right but then why is Profar still a FA?

[DR28]

Naquin was pretty damn solid for Reds in 21... No reason to think he can't come close to these numbers again.

2021	30	CIN	NL	127	454	411	52	111	24	2	19	70	5	3	35	106	.270	.333	.477	.809	107	196	9	5	0	3	1	*879H

[MVP2110]

14 minutes ago, monty57 said:

Injuries suck, but they happen. In most cases when a player is injured, the reserves are a step down. No different here.

It is possible that the Brewers change their mind and decide to keep Frelick up. They could get draft compensation if he's up there in the ROY voting, but they'd lose control over his age 29 season in order for them to get an upgrade for a few weeks this season.

Meanwhile, signing someone like Profar would just keep players like Frelick and Wiemer down when they're probably ready to make the step to the majors.

It's an injury. They'll have more of them this year. They'll get through it, and hopefully the difference between someone like Naquin vs Frelick over a few weeks won't be what keeps us out of the playoffs. Heck, maybe we get lucky and Taylor's replacement gets on a bit of a hot streak during his time in the spotlight.

This is a great point and actually shows the value of the Naquin signing. Injuries are inevitable over the course of a season and having someone like Naquin to take the strong side of a platoon during that stretch is much better than the alternative. 

[Brewcrew82]

35 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Right but then why is Profar still a FA?

 

33 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Naquin was pretty damn solid for Reds in 21... No reason to think he can't come close to these numbers again.

2021	30	CIN	NL	127	454	411	52	111	24	2	19	70	5	3	35	106	.270	.333	.477	.809	107	196	9	5	0	3	1	*879H

Profar is unsigned, not because he’s a bad player, but because Scott Boras is his agent and his asking price reportedly remains high. Whenever he does sign, he will likely sign a multi year major league contract with an AAV above $10 mil, whereas Naquin is an NRI who sucked last season. Not comparable situations. 

And even in the 2021 season you’re referring to, Naquin was barely above replacement level (.8 bWAR). If we’re relying on him for any longer than April/May, we could be in serious trouble.

[endaround]

Can we just not with Naquin?  The Brewers already need to platoon 1B and DH, adding RF to the mix is headache inducing.  So this isn't a Naquin/Anderson platoon or Naquin/Brosseau platoon, this is a Naquin/Toro platoon.

Put Wiemer in RF and re-evaluate in May based upon what Wiemer and Frleick are doing and Taylor's health.

[KeithStone53151]

6 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

 

Profar is unsigned, not because he’s a bad player, but because Scott Boras is his agent and his asking price reportedly remains high. Whenever he does sign, he will likely sign a multi year major league contract with an AAV above $10 mil, whereas Naquin is an NRI who sucked last season. Not comparable situations. 

And even in the 2021 season you’re referring to, Naquin was barely above replacement level (.8 bWAR). If we’re relying on him for any longer than April/May, we could be in serious trouble.

Not to get the thread too off-topic, why the heck is Profar asking 10 mil? Dude posted 725 OPS as a LF(which is better than his career splits) and he's turning 30. What am i missing?

I don't see any reason to be overly concerned about Mitchell playing every day in CF. If it goes poorly, we can swap him and frelick at any time. If Mitchell twists an ankle in the 5th, we have guys that can play CF for 4 innings and bring in a new guy for the next game. Also worth noting, teams will be making cuts right before the season as we will. We could find a better stopgap option than Naquin(that can play CF) from another teams cuts at the very end of March.

[MVP2110]

3 minutes ago, endaround said:

Can we just not with Naquin?  The Brewers already need to platoon 1B and DH, adding RF to the mix is headache inducing.  So this isn't a Naquin/Anderson platoon or Naquin/Brosseau platoon, this is a Naquin/Toro platoon.

Put Wiemer in RF and re-evaluate in May based upon what Wiemer and Frleick are doing and Taylor's health.

What makes you think it'll be a Naquin/Toro platoon instead of Naquin/Brosseau

[endaround]

1 minute ago, MVP2110 said:

What makes you think it'll be a Naquin/Toro platoon instead of Naquin/Brosseau

Brosseau already has to be part of the 1B or DH platoon

[MVP2110]

1 minute ago, endaround said:

Brosseau already has to be part of the 1B or DH platoon

Not necessarily. It's likely Hiura or Voit platoons with Rowdy at 1b and could easily use Caritini in a round about way to platoon with Winker by allowing Contreras to DH against lefties, that would keep his bat in the lineup & allow him rest from catching

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

 

Profar is unsigned, not because he’s a bad player, but because Scott Boras is his agent and his asking price reportedly remains high. Whenever he does sign, he will likely sign a multi year major league contract with an AAV above $10 mil, whereas Naquin is an NRI who sucked last season. Not comparable situations. 

And even in the 2021 season you’re referring to, Naquin was barely above replacement level (.8 bWAR). If we’re relying on him for any longer than April/May, we could be in serious trouble.

Profar had a good year last year, but he was worse than Naquin until 2022.

Profar before 2022 averaged 0.9 bWAR/650 PA compared to Naquin's 1.5 bWAR/650 PA.

Even last year Naquin's .317 xwOBA was better than Profar's .315 xwOBA

Profar is better defensively and doesn't have crazy platoon splits, but it's pretty hard for me to say Profar is a $10M guy if Naquin is an NRI guy.

 

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Profar had a good year last year, but he was worse than Naquin until 2022.

Profar before 2022 averaged 0.9 bWAR/650 PA compared to Naquin's 1.5 bWAR/650 PA.

Even last year Naquin's .317 xwOBA was better than Profar's .315 xwOBA

Profar is better defensively and doesn't have crazy platoon splits, but it's pretty hard for me to say Profar is a $10M guy if Naquin is an NRI guy.

 

Not true. Profar’s 2018 and 2020 seasons also were better than Naquin’s.

Since 2018:

Profar: 6 bWAR

Naquin: 1.9 bWAR

MLBTR also ranked Profar 33 among FA and projected him for 2 years $20 mil. Profar has reportedly been asking for higher than that, which is why he remains unsigned. 
 

Naquin simply isn’t good other than the ability to hit RHP, and even that declined last season (.746 OPS vs. .853 in 2021). 

[monty57]

I think we're making a bit too much of this. A full year's service time is 172 days. There are 162 games, and seasons are generally around 185 days long. If we're not worrying about Super 2, and are simply trying to save a year's service time, then Frelick/Wiemer (whoever they want to play RF) will be down around two weeks.

Pretty much any "AAAA player" would be an acceptable stopgap over a two week period. IL stints are covered by "less than stellar" players all the time. Now, if the Brewers are worried about Super 2 status, then we might have concern about who will be the starting RF for the projected month that Taylor will miss. Of course, Taylor is no sure thing, so I'd be a bit concerned if the Brewers are planning on keeping guys down until June.

I think Mitchell will be on the opening day roster, and we'll see Frelick or Wiemer a few weeks into the season with other guys coming up as necessary.

Of course, they could also start the year with Wiemer and send him down when Taylor comes off the IL. As long as he's down for around two weeks, they gain a season. Of course, that could be hard to do if he plays well for that first month, while no one will care if Naquin is sent down after a good April.

[Thurston Fluff]

IIRC Turang played some center last season. They could move Anderson to right, Urias to third and have Turang play 2nd and have him backup center field. He might not be great in center but he's a gifted athlete and probably better than any of the other veterans we could put there.

[Jopal78]

It’s Tyrone Taylor not Mickey Mantle. The difference between Taylor and the next man up whomever that may be with the Brewers isn’t that great.

Taylor’s a nice player but at 29 is what he is, a solid defender with fringe major league OBP skills and 15-20 homer power.

Now with a torn ligament in his elbow, even when he does come back in game shape (some players end up needing surgery even after a PRP injection) he’s probably not going to be letting her rip from deep in the outfield anytime soon further negating defensive prowess.