Article: The State of the Brewers: Front Office – Keeping The Team Together

[clancyphile]

We’ve looked at the state of the Brewers on the field, but a crucial aspect of the team also warrants review: the decision-makers, both those on the field and those off the field.

Image courtesy of © Ebony Cox / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Brewers are already looking at some turnover in the front office with David Stearns’s stunning decision to step aside with a year left on his contract.

What will happen in 2023 and beyond? Let’s take a look.

The Manager: Primary On-Field Decision Maker
By about any measure, Craig Counsell can make a case for being the most successful manager in the 54-year history of the Milwaukee Brewers, holding the records for most wins and most playoff appearances. He has been the guy making the calls for what was the Brewers’ longest sustained run of success, making the most of the players the team had available at the time.

His contract expires after this season, and there has been no visible move to extend him. The Brewers need to either have Counsell locked up as soon as possible or have a succession plan in place.

The former would be ideal, as Counsell has handled roster turnover quite well. If the latter, we could be seeing the Crew decide to go into a rebuild or at least a step backward for a season or two, given the harsh economic realities exposed during the most recent hot-stove season. Switching a manager is a decision not to be taken lightly.

The Primary Off-Field Decision Maker
The stunning decision by Stearns to step down as President of Baseball Operations following speculation he could be going to either the Mets or Astros was a blow to the Brewers. Stearns was the architect who assembled and acquired the players who made the 2017-2022 run possible – a run that will extend at least one more season.

Matt Arnold was elevated to replace Stearns and offers at least some continuity. Some brilliant moves marked his first offseason, and for the most part, they seem to have brought back some excellent pieces for 2023 and beyond, but like Counsell, his contract runs out after this year.

To put it mildly, baseball is seeing some economic uncertainty, given that several regional sports networks could be facing bankruptcy. The ability to put together a competitive team in one of the smaller markets is a rare thing, and the Brewers need to do what they can to hold on to proven commodities. Dealing players is far preferable to losing front office talent.

Overview
While what the players do (or don’t do) contributes a great deal to the team’s success (or lack thereof), one cannot ignore the importance of the manager and the team's architect. A great manager and GM/president of baseball operations can maximize the team’s performance with the limited resources the Brewers have. The Brewers have great ones in Counsell and Arnold.

The extensions of Counsell and Arnold – or locating their eventual replacements, if that is how things break – probably should be the top priority for Mark Attanasio. For the Brewers, the right manager and front office personnel are probably more crucial than almost any player on the field. Just look at the tenure of Sal Bando to see the alternative.

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[KeithStone53151]

I tend to be pretty critical of Counsell. It's quite easy to nitpick his decisions, especially in a monday morning qb sense. I kinda feel like there's some similarity between Counsell and McCarthy. I believe McCarthy did the stuff you don't see really well, but come game day he might literally be the worst coach in the NFL. Counsell isn't THAT bad on gameday, but I sense he does the stuff we don't see pretty well. I get a sense these guys are properly motivated to compete and win. There's a good team aspect to the club. He does a good job managing for longevity of the season, he tends to error on the side of under-using pitchers...especially relievers(he's the anti-Maddon). The biggest problem I have with Counsell's game day decisions is they seemingly have gotten worse, not better, as he's gained experience. I don't think he's a guy that's capable of making the best decisions in the biggest games, now or in the future. So I think the Brewers FO is sitting there in the same situation they were with McCarthy, above average manager but not the guy that's going to get you to the promised land. Do you keep rolling with that manager or try to improve? In the Brewers case, I think the probably will and should continue to roll with CC. We aren't wasting prime #12 years like the Packers were with McCarthy, and teams can certainly win in spite of mediocre management(Ned Yost).

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I tend to be pretty critical of Counsell. It's quite easy to nitpick his decisions, especially in a monday morning qb sense. I kinda feel like there's some similarity between Counsell and McCarthy. I believe McCarthy did the stuff you don't see really well, but come game day he might literally be the worst coach in the NFL. Counsell isn't THAT bad on gameday, but I sense he does the stuff we don't see pretty well. I get a sense these guys are properly motivated to compete and win. There's a good team aspect to the club. He does a good job managing for longevity of the season, he tends to error on the side of under-using pitchers...especially relievers(he's the anti-Maddon). The biggest problem I have with Counsell's game day decisions is they seemingly have gotten worse, not better, as he's gained experience. I don't think he's a guy that's capable of making the best decisions in the biggest games, now or in the future. So I think the Brewers FO is sitting there in the same situation they were with McCarthy, above average manager but not the guy that's going to get you to the promised land. Do you keep rolling with that manager or try to improve? In the Brewers case, I think the probably will and should continue to roll with CC. We aren't wasting prime #12 years like the Packers were with McCarthy, and teams can certainly win in spite of mediocre management(Ned Yost).

Oh man, I disagree. I think Counsell is a very good manager who manages the team as is required over 162. He runs a tight clubhouse, And baseball is a game where you can argue 55/45 decisions all day long with neither side being satisfied at the end because process doesn't correlate well with results over that data sample.

[brewerralph]

7 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh man, I disagree. I think Counsell is a very good manager who manages the team as is required over 162. He runs a tight clubhouse, And baseball is a game where you can argue 55/45 decisions all day long with neither side being satisfied at the end because process doesn't correlate well with results over that data sample.

I also agree Counsell is a very good manager. I have to wonder if after last year's whining of the trade was too much for Counsell. Moving to the front office would look good to a lot of people. If you recall after he said he talked to the club they continued to complain about the trade. Counsell is a young man he could manage for twenty more years. Now would be the time to move into the front office. I believe in my heart that Arnold is the biggest reason for the brewers minor league success. Signing Arnold top priority and keeping Counsell would be good great also, but babysitting could get old. 

[KeithStone53151]

8 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh man, I disagree. I think Counsell is a very good manager who manages the team as is required over 162. He runs a tight clubhouse, And baseball is a game where you can argue 55/45 decisions all day long with neither side being satisfied at the end because process doesn't correlate well with results over that data sample.

I'm not here to argue 55/45 decisions, like using x reliever instead of y reliever in a given inning. My arguments tend to be leaving a guy in too long or pulling a guy too soon as far as pitching. Sometimes those are 55/45, others are much more clear. One example that sticks in my head from last year is leaving Hader in about 3-4 batters too long against the Giants. He let Hader concede 6 runs including 3 home runs in a game we were up 3 at one point. We lost on a grand slam to Yaz, so up until Yaz we still had the lead. Hader had been struggling a bit recently, I'm pretty sure every manager in the game gets him out of there, except CC. I also largely blame CC for Hiura not getting more consistent atbats last year, and especially against RH pitching. It was completely baffling that CC kept using Hiura primarily against LH pitching and he'd pull Hiura and put in Tellez or Vogelbach or whoever against RH pitching. Most of the season, Hiura was one of the best hitters in baseball against RHP. It's wild to me that CC didn't see the trend. The trend, is actually that CC has started managing in an old school way. Having his 7th inning guy, 8th inning guy, etc. The simple RH hitter vs LH pitcher formula wherever possible regardless of splits. In the Hader scenario I can imagine his thought process in the dugout "well it's still a save situation, must leave in closer". He's going backwards if anything.

[SF70]

1 hour ago, brewerralph said:

I also agree Counsell is a very good manager. I have to wonder if after last year's whining of the trade was too much for Counsell. Moving to the front office would look good to a lot of people. If you recall after he said he talked to the club they continued to complain about the trade. Counsell is a young man he could manage for twenty more years. Now would be the time to move into the front office. I believe in my heart that Arnold is the biggest reason for the brewers minor league success. Signing Arnold top priority and keeping Counsell would be good great also, but babysitting could get old. 

I agree with you that Arnold is the biggest reason for the Brewers minor league success. His talent evaluation skills & player development background were very likely what made him wanted by Stearns in the first place.

The team’s recent success internationally, imo, is in large part thanks to him and his work with Mike Groopman.

If CC decides to take time away from the game for family reasons, I’m confident Arnold/Attanasio will replace him with a manager that can keep this winning train moving along. I’ve never been more confident in the trajectory of this organization as I am right now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

18 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I'm pretty sure every manager in the game gets him out of there, except CC.

I'd like to address this. As a fan of multiple teams and a member of multiple communities, I hear this said about literally every manager in baseball. Which kinda makes the statement impossible.

As for Hiura, that's a pretty big complaint I have about both the front office and Counsell. I don't know who is responsible for throwing Hiura out there against LHP but it's super aggravating.

[KeithStone53151]

5 minutes ago, SF70 said:

I agree with you that Arnold is the biggest reason for the Brewers minor league success. His talent evaluation skills & player development background were very likely what made him wanted by Stearns in the first place.

The team’s recent success internationally, imo, is in large part thanks to him and his work with Mike Groopman.

If CC decides to take time away from the game for family reasons, I’m confident Arnold/Attanasio will replace him with a manager that can keep this winning train moving along. I’ve never been more confident in the trajectory of this organization as I am right now.

Question, how much do we think the AGM or GM is evaluating talent? I would think those positions are more involved in the evaluation system and are using analytics and recommendations to make decisions. It would make sense seeing a correlation in us bringing in better talent over the last several years than we had previously, coupled with the Rays success with talent while Arnold was there. And so far, he's done really well in trades. It still baffles me that a trade in which the Braves get the best players, the A's get the best prospects, yet somehow the Brewers get the best value piece. It's like we somehow inserted ourselves and swindled both teams(really we swindled the A's mostly). It will be interesting to see if he still holds up in big mlb caliber decisions in a few years, right now he could be significantly helped by structure largely set up by Stearns for all we know. Also let's hope Arnold turning his attention to the entire organization fully doesn't impact the pipeline quality we've seen over the last few years.

[KeithStone53151]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'd like to address this. As a fan of multiple teams and a member of multiple communities, I hear this said about literally every manager in baseball. Which kinda makes the statement impossible.

As for Hiura, that's a pretty big complaint I have about both the front office and Counsell. I don't know who is responsible for throwing Hiura out there against LHP but it's super aggravating.

That's certainly fair, I stand by it in that specific case but that's my opinion...hardly gospel.

Not to digress too much, I pop into NSB every so often to read their takes(the best part is how optimistic they are that they'll sign every big free agent to a team friendly deal because everyone loves the cubs...or something) and I noticed you posted in there. I'm guessing you simply are part of that community as I can't imagine someone owning a brewers forum and being a cubs fan.

[Brock Beauchamp]

19 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

That's certainly fair, I stand by it in that specific case but that's my opinion...hardly gospel.

Not to digress too much, I pop into NSB every so often to read their takes(the best part is how optimistic they are that they'll sign every big free agent to a team friendly deal because everyone loves the cubs...or something) and I noticed you posted in there. I'm guessing you simply are part of that community as I can't imagine someone owning a brewers forum and being a cubs fan.

Hah! We actually just bought the site. I'm def not a Cubs fan. I'll manage the community but we purchased it because Matt Trueblood is a Cubs fan and we wanted to give him a platform. We purchased this site because I'm a Brewers fan, we're purchasing that site because Matt's a Cubs fan.

Right now I'm just getting acquainted with that group. They're a wild bunch, for sure.

[Brock Beauchamp]

44 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

And so far, he's done really well in trades. It still baffles me that a trade in which the Braves get the best players, the A's get the best prospects, yet somehow the Brewers get the best value piece. It's like we somehow inserted ourselves and swindled both teams(really we swindled the A's mostly).

That trade was pure black magic and elevated my opinion of Arnold significantly.

[Brewcrew82]

19 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I tend to be pretty critical of Counsell. It's quite easy to nitpick his decisions, especially in a monday morning qb sense. I kinda feel like there's some similarity between Counsell and McCarthy. I believe McCarthy did the stuff you don't see really well, but come game day he might literally be the worst coach in the NFL. Counsell isn't THAT bad on gameday, but I sense he does the stuff we don't see pretty well. I get a sense these guys are properly motivated to compete and win. There's a good team aspect to the club. He does a good job managing for longevity of the season, he tends to error on the side of under-using pitchers...especially relievers(he's the anti-Maddon). The biggest problem I have with Counsell's game day decisions is they seemingly have gotten worse, not better, as he's gained experience. I don't think he's a guy that's capable of making the best decisions in the biggest games, now or in the future. So I think the Brewers FO is sitting there in the same situation they were with McCarthy, above average manager but not the guy that's going to get you to the promised land. Do you keep rolling with that manager or try to improve? In the Brewers case, I think the probably will and should continue to roll with CC. We aren't wasting prime #12 years like the Packers were with McCarthy, and teams can certainly win in spite of mediocre management(Ned Yost).

It’s really hard to say that when this team has consistently outperformed its run differential and xW/L throughout Counsell’s tenure. He’s considered within the industry to be one of the very best managers in baseball, and any team with a vacancy would be all over him. It would be a huge mistake for this franchise to let him go, so long as he wants to stay here.

[KeithStone53151]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

It’s really hard to say that when this team has consistently outperformed its run differential and xW/L throughout Counsell’s tenure. He’s considered within the industry to be one of the very best managers in baseball, and any team with a vacancy would be all over him. It would be a huge mistake for this franchise to let him go, so long as he wants to stay here.

That specifically can be tied to having Josh Hader for most of his tenure. Teams with the best bullpens/closers tend to win more close games. That has little to do with the manager.