Article: Milwaukee Brewers 2023 X-Factors: Christian Yelich, Bat and Soul

[Matthew Trueblood]

Our series detailing the Brewers’ X-factors for 2023 rolls on, and there’s no bigger X-factor on the team than the useful but enigmatic Christian Yelich.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

 

By now, much of the story with Christian Yelich is too familiar to merit repetition. A return to his MVP-caliber form at the plate seems wildly unlikely. There are too many things between that Yelich and this one: a freaky and haunting knee injury; a global pandemic; and multiple flareups of back problems. Making his way back to where he has been would seem a Herculean feat of obstacle obliteration.

As odd as it might feel, it just wouldn’t be that strange if 2018 and 2019 turned out to be extraordinary career years in an otherwise great but not elite baseball life. Roger Maris won back-to-back MVPs in 1960 and 1961, but was merely very good both before and after that. Dave Parker hit .327/.390/.546 from ages 26 to 28, during which span he won one MVP and finished third for another. Before that, he had also been great, but with notably less power. After that, injuries forced a long and gentle but unstoppable decline. There are plenty of precedents for this career arc.

That’s not satisfying, though, and it doesn’t even offer us the thin comfort of certainty muted by a dearth of upside. Maris and Parker are median outcomes for their player types. There are plenty of less fortunate souls for whom injuries or other problems enforced an earlier, sharper, uglier decline. The error bars on Yelich’s performance still feed oddly wide and incompressible, despite high confidence ratings from all of the major projection systems. Because he’s on the field almost all the time and bats at the top of the order, those systems see a robust data set from Yelich. What they can’t see, but what we know so intimately, is that the challenge of predicting Yelich’s campaign lies in trying to find the needle’s worth of real information in that haystack of data, and in resisting the influence of a whole bunch of bad data masquerading as that needle.

To wit: what should we make of the fact that Yelich still flashes maximum exit velocities just as high as he ever has? His raw power, surely, isn’t gone. It might have gone on vacation in 2020 and 2021, but it’s back. 

Christian Yelich, Batted Balls 110+ Miles Per Hour, 2018-2022

Year	110+ MPH BBE	PA	Percentage
2019	31	560	5.5
2022	24	666	3.6
2018	20	648	3.1
2021	11	470	2.3
2020	4	245	1.6

He hits far too many ground balls, but that was true in 2018, too. To be sure, he came to fly-ball Jesus in 2019, but otherwise, he’s always gotten his power primarily from creating exit velocity, not launch angle. There’s this, too: Those truly bashed balls in 2022 came almost exclusively on fastballs. Twenty of the 24 balls listed above came on some form of heater. His swing path is just a little more one-speed; he’s a little less able to save some juice for breaking and offspeed stuff. He’s also whiffing slightly more often, and even though he’s been hitting fastballs hard, he’s doing it at lower launch angles, for some of the same reasons.

There’s no obvious mechanical fix for all of this. Yelich is a little less consistent about turning the toe of his front foot in as he strides, so he opens up fractionally earlier–sometimes. He pulls his hands in a bit sooner and has an infinitesimally greater hitch as he loads them, compared to 2018 and 2019–sometimes.

Here he is in 2019: 

And here's him in 2022: 

 

These are all microcosms of the bigger, maddening story: his big decline in production is an amalgam of six or seven small, inconsistent shifts in subtly sabotaging directions. A Whack-a-Mole game isn’t an adequate metaphor. It’s something closer to a swarm of gnats: a thousand tiny nuisances that amount to semi-debilitation. 

Yet, this is what makes Yelich a compelling X-factor. Even one or two of these things getting markedly worse would push him right over the cliff toward which he’s stumbled the last couple years, beyond which lies an abyss of non-production that would torpedo the Brewers’ hopes. That’s the nearer, more likely outcome, which is scary. Almost as plausible, though, is that he manages the small wins needed to get four or five of these small things back into line.

Maybe his much-publicized offseason of getting off the grid will bring renewed confidence in his body and clarity in his mind. Maybe that will help his mechanics become more consistent. Maybe he’ll respond to the rules limiting defensive shifts by looking to pull the ball more often, and that will lead (almost, but not quite, by coincidence) to more elevation on his hard-hit balls. In that case, he could be the lifeblood of a playoff-caliber offense again, and the Brewers would instantly become heavy NL Central favorites.

Christian Yelich addressed the media for the first time today, and here is kind of a stream-of-consciousness take on him, the Brewers and baseball in general: pic.twitter.com/AbkEvlnvtV

— Todd Rosiak (@Todd_Rosiak) February 20, 2023

The stakes couldn’t be higher. They were set by the extension Yelich signed just a couple of weeks before the pandemic’s full scope came into view in March 2020. Most of his salary and most of the danger in the deal remains years away, but having him in ink on the books but pencil on the lineup card has made it harder for the team to build a clear winner for 2023. For that reason, and for the others above, their fate depends quite a bit on which way things break for Yelich, and there are too many variables to predict that with any confidence right now.

 

View full article

[DR28]

I still believe in our dude... Can't wait to watch him in the leadoff spot all year!

Really liking our potential lineup this year! Definitely more so than last years.

[Jake McKibbin]

7 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Our series detailing the Brewers’ X-factors for 2023 rolls on, and there’s no bigger X-factor on the team than the useful but enigmatic Christian Yelich.

author-tracker.gifauthor-tracker.gif

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

 

By now, much of the story with Christian Yelich is too familiar to merit repetition. A return to his MVP-caliber form at the plate seems wildly unlikely. There are too many things between that Yelich and this one: a freaky and haunting knee injury; a global pandemic; and multiple flareups of back problems. Making his way back to where he has been would seem a Herculean feat of obstacle obliteration.

As odd as it might feel, it just wouldn’t be that strange if 2018 and 2019 turned out to be extraordinary career years in an otherwise great but not elite baseball life. Roger Maris won back-to-back MVPs in 1960 and 1961, but was merely very good both before and after that. Dave Parker hit .327/.390/.546 from ages 26 to 28, during which span he won one MVP and finished third for another. Before that, he had also been great, but with notably less power. After that, injuries forced a long and gentle but unstoppable decline. There are plenty of precedents for this career arc.

That’s not satisfying, though, and it doesn’t even offer us the thin comfort of certainty muted by a dearth of upside. Maris and Parker are median outcomes for their player types. There are plenty of less fortunate souls for whom injuries or other problems enforced an earlier, sharper, uglier decline. The error bars on Yelich’s performance still feed oddly wide and incompressible, despite high confidence ratings from all of the major projection systems. Because he’s on the field almost all the time and bats at the top of the order, those systems see a robust data set from Yelich. What they can’t see, but what we know so intimately, is that the challenge of predicting Yelich’s campaign lies in trying to find the needle’s worth of real information in that haystack of data, and in resisting the influence of a whole bunch of bad data masquerading as that needle.

To wit: what should we make of the fact that Yelich still flashes maximum exit velocities just as high as he ever has? His raw power, surely, isn’t gone. It might have gone on vacation in 2020 and 2021, but it’s back. 

Christian Yelich, Batted Balls 110+ Miles Per Hour, 2018-2022

Year	110+ MPH BBE	PA	Percentage
2019	31	560	5.5
2022	24	666	3.6
2018	20	648	3.1
2021	11	470	2.3
2020	4	245	1.6

He hits far too many ground balls, but that was true in 2018, too. To be sure, he came to fly-ball Jesus in 2019, but otherwise, he’s always gotten his power primarily from creating exit velocity, not launch angle. There’s this, too: Those truly bashed balls in 2022 came almost exclusively on fastballs. Twenty of the 24 balls listed above came on some form of heater. His swing path is just a little more one-speed; he’s a little less able to save some juice for breaking and offspeed stuff. He’s also whiffing slightly more often, and even though he’s been hitting fastballs hard, he’s doing it at lower launch angles, for some of the same reasons.

There’s no obvious mechanical fix for all of this. Yelich is a little less consistent about turning the toe of his front foot in as he strides, so he opens up fractionally earlier–sometimes. He pulls his hands in a bit sooner and has an infinitesimally greater hitch as he loads them, compared to 2018 and 2019–sometimes.

Here he is in 2019: 

And here's him in 2022: 

 

These are all microcosms of the bigger, maddening story: his big decline in production is an amalgam of six or seven small, inconsistent shifts in subtly sabotaging directions. A Whack-a-Mole game isn’t an adequate metaphor. It’s something closer to a swarm of gnats: a thousand tiny nuisances that amount to semi-debilitation. 

Yet, this is what makes Yelich a compelling X-factor. Even one or two of these things getting markedly worse would push him right over the cliff toward which he’s stumbled the last couple years, beyond which lies an abyss of non-production that would torpedo the Brewers’ hopes. That’s the nearer, more likely outcome, which is scary. Almost as plausible, though, is that he manages the small wins needed to get four or five of these small things back into line.

Maybe his much-publicized offseason of getting off the grid will bring renewed confidence in his body and clarity in his mind. Maybe that will help his mechanics become more consistent. Maybe he’ll respond to the rules limiting defensive shifts by looking to pull the ball more often, and that will lead (almost, but not quite, by coincidence) to more elevation on his hard-hit balls. In that case, he could be the lifeblood of a playoff-caliber offense again, and the Brewers would instantly become heavy NL Central favorites.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. They were set by the extension Yelich signed just a couple of weeks before the pandemic’s full scope came into view in March 2020. Most of his salary and most of the danger in the deal remains years away, but having him in ink on the books but pencil on the lineup card has made it harder for the team to build a clear winner for 2023. For that reason, and for the others above, their fate depends quite a bit on which way things break for Yelich, and there are too many variables to predict that with any confidence right now.

 

 

View full article

 

That's really interesting about BBE, he has, save in 2020, been immense against fastball in terms of strikeouts, and whiff rates since joining

I found it super intriguing about how his swing/take decisions showed up hugely in comparison to 2018/19, in that for pitches over the heart of the plate, he score +30 in each of those two seasons. In 2021 he rated -17, and -2 in 2022(or thereabouts, this is of the top of my head)

This could be due to not picking up those pitches dipping into the zone (ie hanging curves) and also if he's heavily sitting on one pitch, it could be why he strikes out so often against curveballs down in the zone

[Fear The Chorizo]

Obviously not comprehensive, but look at his setups in those two graphics posted in the article...2019 his stance started open and stayed open, with a small leg kick that seemed to get alot more drive from his lower half once he dropped that front foot and fired through with his hips.  The 2022 swing shows Yelich's stance as neutral and perhaps even a bit closed, and instead of a leg kick he uses a toe tap that doesn't yield as much drive from his lower half through the swing - not saying it's lingering issues with the front knee injury, but I think it has more to do with ongoing back issues that limit how much torque he can put into a swing from the ground up.  That is also evident in the comparison of those 2019 and 2022 stances - Yelich has more knee bend in his stance and throughout his swing in 2019, and remains much more upright in that 2022 swing.

[sveumrules]

9 minutes ago, DR28 said:

I still believe in our dude... Can't wait to watch him in the leadoff spot all year!

Really liking our potential lineup this year! Definitely more so than last years.

Yeah, 267/378/390 (120 wRC+) in 406 PAs in the lead off spot last year was the best he’s looked post knee cap.

If Yelich can put up a mostly healthy season around that level of production this year (maybe even add a scooch of batting average) you’re talking about something like a 3 WAR LF, which might not be sexy or garner any MVP votes, but is at least in the neighborhood of breaking even on his salary.

[KeithStone53151]

I took a fair amount of issue with his comments and what he felt like he needed. I'm a big proponent of needing to put in the work. Talent only gets you so far, and as talented as he is...he'll fall behind in a hurry if he's not putting in the work. I believe that's part of what we've seen the last couple years. Every other big leaguer is talking about being in the best shape of their life, and Yelich is talking about getting mental clarity. Previous seasons when our guys have gotten covid and had to quarantine, every other brewer talked about the work they were doing...bullpen sessions...etc. Yelich talked about how he picked up a guitar for the first time. Yelich reeks of a guy who got the contract and is going to show up and punch the clock. I hope I'm wrong. I'm certainly not an expert in the field, maybe mental clarity truly is the answer. We'll have our answer in a few months.

[sveumrules]

3 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I took a fair amount of issue with his comments and what he felt like he needed. I'm a big proponent of needing to put in the work. Talent only gets you so far, and as talented as he is...he'll fall behind in a hurry if he's not putting in the work. I believe that's part of what we've seen the last couple years. Every other big leaguer is talking about being in the best shape of their life, and Yelich is talking about getting mental clarity. Previous seasons when our guys have gotten covid and had to quarantine, every other brewer talked about the work they were doing...bullpen sessions...etc. Yelich talked about how he picked up a guitar for the first time. Yelich reeks of a guy who got the contract and is going to show up and punch the clock. I hope I'm wrong. I'm certainly not an expert in the field, maybe mental clarity truly is the answer. We'll have our answer in a few months.

Yelich definitely appears to fall closer to Rodgers than Giannis in terms of personality & presumably leadership style as well.

 

[Matthew Trueblood]

2 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Obviously not comprehensive, but look at his setups in those two graphics posted in the article...2019 his stance started open and stayed open, with a small leg kick that seemed to get alot more drive from his lower half once he dropped that front foot and fired through with his hips.  The 2022 swing shows Yelich's stance as neutral and perhaps even a bit closed, and instead of a leg kick he uses a toe tap that doesn't yield as much drive from his lower half through the swing - not saying it's lingering issues with the front knee injury, but I think it has more to do with ongoing back issues that limit how much torque he can put into a swing from the ground up.  That is also evident in the comparison of those 2019 and 2022 stances - Yelich has more knee bend in his stance and throughout his swing in 2019, and remains much more upright in that 2022 swing.

That’s sound analysis of those particular swings, but as I noted, it’s not a consistent deficiency that’s developed. It’s a lack of consistency. I do think you’re right about the back being as limiting as the knee at this point. I kinda think the back stuff is also partially a consequence of the knee, though. He hasn’t been able to drive into the front leg and manage the force of the swing that way as well since the foul ball, so his back is bearing more of the strain to generate that force. Just a theory though. What do you think?

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I took a fair amount of issue with his comments and what he felt like he needed. I'm a big proponent of needing to put in the work. Talent only gets you so far, and as talented as he is...he'll fall behind in a hurry if he's not putting in the work. I believe that's part of what we've seen the last couple years. Every other big leaguer is talking about being in the best shape of their life, and Yelich is talking about getting mental clarity. Previous seasons when our guys have gotten covid and had to quarantine, every other brewer talked about the work they were doing...bullpen sessions...etc. Yelich talked about how he picked up a guitar for the first time. Yelich reeks of a guy who got the contract and is going to show up and punch the clock. I hope I'm wrong. I'm certainly not an expert in the field, maybe mental clarity truly is the answer. We'll have our answer in a few months.

Yeah, we’ll see. There’s definitely something to the idea that what makes him tick is not the relentless pursuit of being the best. That can be ok though. Baseball is tough, the season is long, and it can be good to have a definition of success that is more inwardly focused and subjective. That said, I wish we knew better what that definition is in his case, and how he’ll fuse it with the goals of the team throughout this season.

[Matthew Trueblood]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Yeah, 267/378/390 (120 wRC+) in 406 PAs in the lead off spot last year was the best he’s looked post knee cap.

If Yelich can put up a mostly healthy season around that level of production this year (maybe even add a scooch of batting average) you’re talking about something like a 3 WAR LF, which might not be sexy or garner any MVP votes, but is at least in the neighborhood of breaking even on his salary.

I’m not sure how much real average he can add, unless he regains the contact skills he had a few years ago. That’s a skill that tends not to age well anyway, so I’m not holding my breath. His average might tick up just because of the shift restrictions, but I think the key to any major bounce back lies in the power. That said, even *without* a rebound, he can be a 3+ win guy, depending on your assessment of his defense. I think he’s better than he’s been regarded recently, so I’m bullish overall.