Article: Milwaukee Brewers 2023 X-Factors: Bryse Wilson and the Chris Hook Apparatus

[Matthew Trueblood]

This week at Brewer Fanatic, we’re running a series enumerating some of the X-factors of the 2023 Milwaukee Brewers. These are factors beyond sheer talent or previous production, which could have a huge impact on the way the long season ahead unfolds. Today, let’s discuss an under-the-radar project for Chris Hook and the team during camp: Bryse Wilson.

Image courtesy of © John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

Only a few years ago, Bryse Wilson was expected to become one of the cadre of promising arms driving the Atlanta Braves’ new NL East dynasty. He fired six innings of one-run ball against the Dodgers in the 2020 NLCS, and it looked like a coming-out party. Less than a year later, though, he was exiled to Pittsburgh, and the Brewers scooped him up from there only after the Pirates designated him for assignment in late December.

It’s tempting, given that quick fall from grace, to think of Wilson as a non-entity, and it might turn out to be true. Now 25 years old, the former top prospect sports a 5.54 career ERA, and he doesn’t have high-end velocity or gaudy strikeout rates to recommend him as a breakout candidate. He also doesn’t have any minor-league option years remaining, so he has to prove himself worthy of a spot on the 26-man roster over the next month in order to stick around. What he does have going for him, though, is Chris Hook.

It’s a minor miracle, really, that Hook has kept the Brewers’ pitching train on the rails so perfectly since taking over at such a perilous moment. In the afterglow of the Crew’s magical run to within a game of the World Series in 2018, then-pitching coach Derek Johnson made a shocking defection to the Reds. That could easily have been a killing blow to the momentum they had established, moving toward the goal of being an elite pitching development organization. Instead, Hook slid seamlessly from his longtime roles as minor-league pitching coach and coordinator into the big-league gig, and the team only gained steam.

Under Hook, the Brewers’ greatest specialty has been their lack of any single specialty. Both Hook and the team have their preferences, but they don’t try to bend every pitcher to them or acquire pitchers solely based on their fit with the organizational philosophy. They’ve had success with pitchers of many different styles and with many different repertoires, and they take pride in that. Wilson might lack elite stuff, but he has a lot of traits with which the team can work.

For one thing, near the end of a largely lost season in 2022, Wilson did find something potentially useful. In his final six starts, he lowered his ERA by over half a run, thanks in part to a splitter that took the place of his more conventional changeup. He used it 90 times in those six outings, to good effect, including against right-handed batters, whom he was never comfortable attacking with his old change. 

That was just one aspect of a broader set of adjustments, though. To see the big picture, compare the above to this video of Wilson throwing his old changeup to another right-handed batter, from April.

In early summer, Wilson moved over to the first-base side of the rubber, changing his angle of attack horizontally. Late in the year, he also raised his arm angle slightly. It didn’t yield immediate, mind-blowing results. It did, though, help him find a better changeup. It also made him a candidate for some other fixes, and (perhaps most importantly) it signaled that he’s open-minded and willing to take instruction in order to find a new direction.

From his slightly altered arm slot, Wilson’s arsenal can take a new shape, even beyond the transition from straight changeup to splitter. His curveball has always had an extreme amount of horizontal sweep, but gained depth when he raised his arm angle. If the Brewers elect to have him stick with that mechanical change, he can probably find more whiffs when working with those pitches and his four-seam fastball than he has had in his career to this point.

That slot is also a bit more friendly to the cutter, a pitch Hook and the pitching development team loved to help pitchers hone, and with which Wilson has tinkered a couple previous times in his career. He’s a good candidate to be better with a firm cutter than with the traditional slider he’s used throughout his career. 

On the other hand, though, the team could try to get Wilson’s release point back down, and emphasize the natural horizontal movement he creates on so much of his stuff. Working primarily in relief, he probably doesn’t need the five or six pitches he has often used until now, and could radically simplify his approach. Against righties, his sinker and curveball work nicely off of one another in that horizontal plane. Against lefties, his four-seamer and splitter are an effective pairing. Either way, the club has proved they're good at making pitchers more mechanically efficient, so Wilson might also pick up some of the velocity that has been missing from his profile recently.

This is the genius and the mysticism of the Brewers’ infrastructure, and it’s what makes journeymen like Wilson more compelling than they might be in another team’s camp. With a high risk of getting nothing at all from the player; two highly disparate methods for trying to get something out of him; and considerable upside, Wilson typifies the way the Crew could exceed a projection system’s estimate of their talent by several wins this year–even if the odds of that are quite slim. 

View full article

[Brock Beauchamp]

I wrote up the Wilson acquisition and the first thing that jumped out at me was how many pitches he threw and how badly most of them graded out. It will be interesting to see how the Brewers change his approach and try to accentuate his strengths. I'd be shocked if one of their first moves wasn't to axe a couple of his way-below-average pitches. It baffles me why the Pirates didn't do it last year, seems like a ripe opportunity for Milwaukee.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here are his 2022 Statcast numbers. Brutal. A .375+ WOBA on three of his pitches. To put that into context, in 2022 Kyle Schwarber had a .375 xwOBA. Wilson threw about 900 pitches last year that made the average hitter look like Kyle Schwarber.

Year	Pitch Type	#	# RHB	# LHB	%	MPH	PA	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	SO	BBE	BA	XBA	SLG	XSLG	WOBA	XWOBA	EV	LA	Spin	Ext.	Whiff%	PutAway%
2022	Sinker	593	402	191	32.5	92.1	179	160	49	38	9	0	2	21	141	.306	.296	.400	.407	.342	.341	91.2	5	1958	6.5	11.7	16.9
2022	4-Seam Fastball	438	117	321	24.0	92.7	114	99	30	18	7	0	5	24	77	.303	.278	.525	.498	.384	.370	91.7	21	2034	6.5	22.2	16.7
2022	Slider	290	228	62	15.9	83.4	77	75	18	10	4	0	4	13	63	.240	.314	.453	.530	.297	.364	88.4	17	2160	6.6	20.7	17.8
2022	Changeup	270	72	198	14.8	85.1	82	73	22	12	6	1	3	10	64	.301	.310	.534	.499	.386	.387	92.9	5	1467	6.5	18.8	13.9
2022	Curveball	234	111	123	12.8	77.2	56	53	13	4	3	0	6	11	43	.245	.245	.642	.519	.378	.334	86.1	18	2307	6.5	20.4	18.3

[Brock Beauchamp]

So my deep dive analysis is:

[clancyphile]

It is a low-risk pickup, especially if they can make a decent reliver out of Wilson.

The splitter seemed to help, though, and over those last six starts, his ERA was 4.05. Not at the level of Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta, but not awful, either. It would be suitable for the back end of the bullpen, especially if a starter has one of those days that make him feel like a baby seal in the Arctic.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Here are his 2022 Statcast numbers. Brutal. A .375+ WOBA on three of his pitches. To put that into context, in 2022 Kyle Schwarber had a .375 xwOBA. Wilson threw about 900 pitches last year that made the average hitter look like Kyle Schwarber.

Year	Pitch Type	#	# RHB	# LHB	%	MPH	PA	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	SO	BBE	BA	XBA	SLG	XSLG	WOBA	XWOBA	EV	LA	Spin	Ext.	Whiff%	PutAway%
2022	Sinker	593	402	191	32.5	92.1	179	160	49	38	9	0	2	21	141	.306	.296	.400	.407	.342	.341	91.2	5	1958	6.5	11.7	16.9
2022	4-Seam Fastball	438	117	321	24.0	92.7	114	99	30	18	7	0	5	24	77	.303	.278	.525	.498	.384	.370	91.7	21	2034	6.5	22.2	16.7
2022	Slider	290	228	62	15.9	83.4	77	75	18	10	4	0	4	13	63	.240	.314	.453	.530	.297	.364	88.4	17	2160	6.6	20.7	17.8
2022	Changeup	270	72	198	14.8	85.1	82	73	22	12	6	1	3	10	64	.301	.310	.534	.499	.386	.387	92.9	5	1467	6.5	18.8	13.9
2022	Curveball	234	111	123	12.8	77.2	56	53	13	4	3	0	6	11	43	.245	.245	.642	.519	.378	.334	86.1	18	2307	6.5	20.4	18.3

Yeah. I just don't see it with Wilson. Unlike some of our other reclamation projects, there's not much to work with here imo. Would be a shame if they felt compelled to keep him on the roster over a guy such as Cousins. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Here are his 2022 Statcast numbers. Brutal. A .375+ WOBA on three of his pitches. To put that into context, in 2022 Kyle Schwarber had a .375 xwOBA. Wilson threw about 900 pitches last year that made the average hitter look like Kyle Schwarber.

Year	Pitch Type	#	# RHB	# LHB	%	MPH	PA	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	SO	BBE	BA	XBA	SLG	XSLG	WOBA	XWOBA	EV	LA	Spin	Ext.	Whiff%	PutAway%
2022	Sinker	593	402	191	32.5	92.1	179	160	49	38	9	0	2	21	141	.306	.296	.400	.407	.342	.341	91.2	5	1958	6.5	11.7	16.9
2022	4-Seam Fastball	438	117	321	24.0	92.7	114	99	30	18	7	0	5	24	77	.303	.278	.525	.498	.384	.370	91.7	21	2034	6.5	22.2	16.7
2022	Slider	290	228	62	15.9	83.4	77	75	18	10	4	0	4	13	63	.240	.314	.453	.530	.297	.364	88.4	17	2160	6.6	20.7	17.8
2022	Changeup	270	72	198	14.8	85.1	82	73	22	12	6	1	3	10	64	.301	.310	.534	.499	.386	.387	92.9	5	1467	6.5	18.8	13.9
2022	Curveball	234	111	123	12.8	77.2	56	53	13	4	3	0	6	11	43	.245	.245	.642	.519	.378	.334	86.1	18	2307	6.5	20.4	18.3

Haha. Yeah, that’s what fascinates me. There’s no obviously good news with him. But that’s the thing about this kind of development: the team isn’t only evaluating what he is or has been. If they see both mechanical and approach adjustments they want to make, and they’ve done their homework on what it could look like if those adjustments work, then the past is history.

[Matthew Trueblood]

44 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah. I just don't see it with Wilson. Unlike some of our other reclamation projects, there's not much to work with here imo. Would be a shame if they felt compelled to keep him on the roster over a guy such as Cousins. 

I would *strongly* argue that he’s no less promising than Eric Lauer was three years ago. But you’re not totally wrong. (Also, be honest: is that you, Jake? Is this your burner? :D)

[damuelle]

I hope they prove me wrong. He's seemed like such an obvious DFA-and-outright candidate - lacking velocity, results and options.

[Brewcrew82]

21 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I would *strongly* argue that he’s no less promising than Eric Lauer was three years ago. But you’re not totally wrong. (Also, be honest: is that you, Jake? Is this your burner? :D)

Lol. No I'm not Jake. I just want to win as many games as possible this season and believe that rostering Jake over Wilson starting on OD would help with that.

As far as Wilson being no less promising than Lauer, I strongly disagree:

Lauer (2018-2019 w/ SD): 4.40 ERA/108 ERA-/103 FIP-/3.1 fWAR

Wilson (2021-2022 w/ PIT&ATL): 5.47 ERA/131 ERA-/127.5 FIP/0 fWAR

Lauer was still a strong back-end starter w/ SD, while Wilson has been objectively terrible by every measure since 2021. And, as Brock highlighted, there's nothing in his profile to suggest that he'll drastically improve on those numbers. 

[Outlander]

I doubt Wilson has a huge impact on the season but do believe he makes the opening roster. Not so confident he is still here the end of April.

[SF70]

He sure looked good pitching against us while with Pittsburgh. I sure do love this team’s PDS. Fascinating to see what happens with him this spring.

[clancyphile]

49 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Haha. Yeah, that’s what fascinates me. There’s no obviously good news with him. But that’s the thing about this kind of development: the team isn’t only evaluating what he is or has been. If they see both mechanical and approach adjustments they want to make, and they’ve done their homework on what it could look like if those adjustments work, then the past is history.

To me, Wilson did show something over the last six outings after developing his splitter. Post-splitter Wilson posted a 4.05 ERA, which while not spectacular, is not bad for a back-of-the bullpen option for long relief. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, clancyphile said:

To me, Wilson did show something over the last six outings after developing his splitter. Post-splitter Wilson posted a 4.05 ERA, which while not spectacular, is not bad for a back-of-the bullpen option for long relief. 

Yeah. I mean even that ERA was a little soft, he didn’t truly turn a corner just by finding the splitter. But between that and the mechanical changes and the potential of the breaking ball and sinker combo, there’s something to dream on. 

[clancyphile]

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Yeah. I mean even that ERA was a little soft, he didn’t truly turn a corner just by finding the splitter. But between that and the mechanical changes and the potential of the breaking ball and sinker combo, there’s something to dream on. 

Put it this way... it's worth seeing what the Brewers development team can do. I'd feel better if he were a NRI and Brent Suter was on the 40-man, to be honest. 

[Jake McKibbin]

16 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I would *strongly* argue that he’s no less promising than Eric Lauer was three years ago. But you’re not totally wrong. (Also, be honest: is that you, Jake? Is this your burner? :D)

Hahaha I have too many personalities for one profile, what can I say :P

I really agree here actually, and for the exact same reason. It's one of the reasons I was curious about the Junk and Wilson acquisitions, as we seem to be similar to the Dodgers in that pitchers use their stuff much more efficiently with us, usually adding spin rates and velo (I think Lauer accomplished both of these, used to be a 91-93mph pitcher?)

A splitter is one of those that I think can be lethal out of the bullpen, you don't find many hitters with good expected stats against them, I think the question with Wilson is can he sequence it well with his fastball, which hasn't profiled well.. or will it make his fastball become a secondary pitch?

 

EDIT: just realised you were asking if he was Jake Cousins 

[DR28]

16 hours ago, clancyphile said:

Put it this way... it's worth seeing what the Brewers development team can do. I'd feel better if he were a NRI and Brent Suter was on the 40-man, to be honest. 

We have our Suter on the 40 man in Ethan Small... Won't be surprised when this is the role he turns into.