What would a Corbin Burnes Trade Look Like?

[YodaDaSoda]

Since Corbin Burnes has spoken out against the Brewers and how the arbitration process went, I've seen many websites talking about potential trade destinations for Burnes, but none of them have talked about the return. I'm wondering what the return could be. Could the Brewers get a couple big prospects like Grayson Rodriguez and Gunnar Henderson, or is that too optimistic?

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, YodaDaSoda said:

Since Corbin Burnes has spoken out against the Brewers and how the arbitration process went, I've seen many websites talking about potential trade destinations for Burnes, but none of them have talked about the return. I'm wondering what the return could be. Could the Brewers get a couple big prospects like Grayson Rodriguez and Gunnar Henderson, or is that too optimistic?

First gonna move this to the right forum.

Second, the Brewers could demand one top 50 prospect and at least two more top 100 prospects for Burnes today.

But they almost surely won’t.

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

[wiguy94]

39 minutes ago, YodaDaSoda said:

Since Corbin Burnes has spoken out against the Brewers and how the arbitration process went, I've seen many websites talking about potential trade destinations for Burnes, but none of them have talked about the return. I'm wondering what the return could be. Could the Brewers get a couple big prospects like Grayson Rodriguez and Gunnar Henderson, or is that too optimistic?

Brewers should definitely ask for a prospect like that, but no chance the O's would trade either of those guys for 1.5 years of Burnes.

[nate82]

50 minutes ago, YodaDaSoda said:

Could the Brewers get a couple big prospects like Grayson Rodriguez and Gunnar Henderson, or is that too optimistic?

That is way too optimistic.  You could maybe get one but not both. 

The Phillies are probably the best match for the Brewers.  Something like Painter and a couple of other prospects.  That would be the best option for the Brewers.  Otherwise I think something like Baty, Ramirez, Tidwell and Ziegler makes sense from the Mets. 

A deadline deal with the Orioles probably starts with Holliday but after him there really isn't much that I like with the Orioles prospect wise.  The Orioles are really thin in pitching prospects and I don't see DL Hall as much of a prospect at all.  A throw in for Burnes sure but not someone I would want to include as a major piece. 

The Phillies are the best team to trade Burnes to as they have a really good pitcher in Painter.  Even if all you get is Painter and a few throw ins that is more than enough for Burnes.  If you want to go on the offensive side then the Mets make the most sense.  Someone I would really like to get is Blaze Jordan from the Red Sox.  I am not sure there is a trade there but he is someone to watch for in the next couple of years.  He has a lot of power but he looks to be a 1B or DH only.  He doesn't have the arm strength nor the quickness to stay at 3B. 

[BlightyBrew]

Have no faith in this front office in order to get value for Burnes in a trade.

[brewcrewdue80]

Watched a Dodger suggested YouTube discussing a trade for Burnes, pro/cons. Their final offer on btv had them sending 63.3M value while Burnes had 78.5M or near. Definitely started 78.M 

Think it was like #2&4 team prospect rank with added below 10s team ranks. Or one of the 2 and Tony Gonsolin and spare parts. I would think Vargas who's #3 and one of their top SPs before even beginning added parts.

Another 1 had Toronto saying he'd be a great fit for them but didn't think they could work out a deal.

One of the minor things on taking lotto tickets right now is the depth and international signings in the system. Rule 5 protecting. There is bound to be a point where the unprotected lotto tickets are drafted due to sheer number of talents that are growing in the Brewers system.  So with the amount of potential trades between the big 2 SPs, Lauer, Tellez, and Adames. You have to believe the targets are like Contreras a 1+year into their ML career.

[nate82]

47 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

You have to believe the targets are like Contreras a 1+year into their ML career.

No,

If you are trading someone like Burnes you don't want someone who has already burnt some time unless they are still rookie eligible see Baty as an example.  If a player already has 1-year of service time then they have to be someone who is signed long term and a team is not going to give up that type of a player.  Teams are not going to subtract from their roster during the deadline especially if it is a player who is contributing for that team.  At best you are looking at AA maybe AAA players.  Trading any player you are looking at 1-2 years down the road best case scenario and realistically it is 3-5 years away or never. 

I don't really think Baty would be available but it is the Mets so you never know with them. 

The best options for a Burnes trade are the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and Mets.  The Guardians are an interesting team but I don't see them making that type of a trade.  A surprise team could be the D-backs but I think they are another year or two away from competing.  It really is only a four team competition for Burnes if the Brewers decide to trade him at the deadline.  The Phillies make the most sense with Painter or Abel as the main piece going to the Brewers with a few lower level prospects.  The Dodgers are a close second with the Mets and Yankees being distant 3rd and 4th. 

The only other team would be the Orioles and you are looking more at a player who is 2-4 years away in Holliday. 

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Watched a Dodger suggested YouTube discussing a trade for Burnes, pro/cons. Their final offer on btv had them sending 63.3M value while Burnes had 78.5M or near. Definitely started 78.M 

Think it was like #2&4 team prospect rank with added below 10s team ranks. Or one of the 2 and Tony Gonsolin and spare parts. I would think Vargas who's #3 and one of their top SPs before even beginning added parts.

Another 1 had Toronto saying he'd be a great fit for them but didn't think they could work out a deal.

One of the minor things on taking lotto tickets right now is the depth and international signings in the system. Rule 5 protecting. There is bound to be a point where the unprotected lotto tickets are drafted due to sheer number of talents that are growing in the Brewers system.  So with the amount of potential trades between the big 2 SPs, Lauer, Tellez, and Adames. You have to believe the targets are like Contreras a 1+year into their ML career.

Typical Dodgers/big market fan thinking. That deal is an insult. 

If the Brewers were to trade Burnes right now, the deal would have to look something like this: 

Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas, Nick Nastrini (or Outman and Sheehan). 

[Jopal78]

Unless the team goes into the toilet this year, why wouldn't the Brewers just hang on to Burnes until the deadline in '24? A difference making arm, that is a rental there wouldn't be a team in the hunt that wouldn't want Burnes. Let them bid against each other when they're drooling over that tender morsel, not when their metaphorical bellies are fat, and  with no exigency. 

[nate82]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Unless the team goes into the toilet this year, why wouldn't the Brewers just hang on to Burnes until the deadline in '24? A difference making arm, that is a rental there wouldn't be a team in the hunt that wouldn't want Burnes. Let them bid against each other when they're drooling over that tender morsel, not when their metaphorical bellies are fat, and  with no exigency. 

Because 1.5 years of Burnes is worth more than a half a year of Burnes.  You will also start eliminating some teams as the Phillies would have their two and really only best trade chips on their team by that time.  The Dodgers would also have their better prospects up by '24 also. 

Makes more sense to either trade him next offseason or during the deadline if the Brewers are out of it.  Preferably I would rather see him traded in the next offseason because that means the Brewers made the playoffs or were within striking distance of a playoff spot. 

[brewmann04]

Can’t say when they make a trade after what happened with Josh 

[Redd Vencher]

48 minutes ago, brewmann04 said:

Can’t say when they make a trade after what happened with Josh 

Nobody is going to give up the Taylor Rodgers equivalent SP in a trade, so comparisons to the Hader trade fall apart. Are the Padres going to send Snell, Merrill, Lesko, and another piece or 2 for Burnes at the deadline assuming Snell is healthy and productive?

[TURBO]

If a trade with BAL doesn't happen now, before Henderson and Rodriguez get a true foothold in MLB, it won't happen.  The deadline will be way too late, by that time, one or both could be superstars!

[brewmann04]

they better get a big haul to set them up for the future, but think they will wait to see how the first half of the season goes.

[Jake McKibbin]

9 hours ago, TURBO said:

If a trade with BAL doesn't happen now, before Henderson and Rodriguez get a true foothold in MLB, it won't happen.  The deadline will be way too late, by that time, one or both could be superstars!

Baltimore are statistically the stingiest team with trading their prospects away, I think there's zero chance they'd offer either Henderson or Rodriguez to the brewers unless they believed there was a major issue with one of them

[Jake McKibbin]

I think you're looking for a win now team for sure... If Mets missed on Ohtani, Blue Jays in their huge league (though again they'll not trade Tiedemann unless they see something off), Dodgers (always), San Diego if they had any prospect capital, but realistically the Dodgers are the team for it. I'd maybe take Miller & Stone both, with another top 10 in their system, probably fair on all parts

We wouldn't get Vargas in return, probably lower than that unless he underperforms

And if this trade happens next year say, more likely we get one of stone/Miller and a top 10 prospect

[DR28]

32 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I think you're looking for a win now team for sure... If Mets missed on Ohtani, Blue Jays in their huge league (though again they'll not trade Tiedemann unless they see something off), Dodgers (always), San Diego if they had any prospect capital, but realistically the Dodgers are the team for it. I'd maybe take Miller & Stone both, with another top 10 in their system, probably fair on all parts

We wouldn't get Vargas in return, probably lower than that unless he underperforms

And if this trade happens next year say, more likely we get one of stone/Miller and a top 10 prospect

Miller, Pepiot and Busch??

[Jake McKibbin]

23 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Miller, Pepiot and Busch??

I don't know if the Brewers would want Busch, given how reluctant they can be with players that have no positional home, he's effectively a hitting machine that can't be put in the field, and also strikes out a ton so unsure he'll be on their radar. Maybe someone more like a Jose Ramos

[Robocaller]

On 2/27/2023 at 2:39 PM, Jopal78 said:

Unless the team goes into the toilet this year, why wouldn't the Brewers just hang on to Burnes until the deadline in '24? A difference making arm, that is a rental there wouldn't be a team in the hunt that wouldn't want Burnes. Let them bid against each other when they're drooling over that tender morsel, not when their metaphorical bellies are fat, and  with no exigency. 

I think the timeline would be deadline in '23, if the team has little chance of making the playoffs.

 

[jerichoholicninja]

Your best return is going to come from teams that are desperate and don't care too much about the future like the Padres, Mets, and probably Phillies. What that return looks like I have no idea. I can't see the Orioles giving up their top prospects for anyone at this point in their build/rebuild.

[wiguy94]

After seeing all the hype for Painter this spring training, I cannot see the Phillies trading him. Seems like he's in that class of prospects that very rarely get traded.

[SF70]

11 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

After seeing all the hype for Painter this spring training, I cannot see the Phillies trading him. Seems like he's in that class of prospects that very rarely get traded.

Yes, especially during the offseason when teams just aren’t desperate enough to trade their best prospects, choosing the FA route instead.

This is why I believe the team will hold Burnes and only trade him at the deadline if they are out of contention. Burnes & the draft-pick will likely be more valuable than trading Burnes during the offseason.

[Brewcrew82]

Best we can probably do prospect-wise at this point is: Holiday, Miller, Tiedemann, etc. 

[wiguy94]

4 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Best we can probably do prospect-wise at this point is: Holiday, Miller, Tiedemann, etc. 

Tiedemann was throwing 99 the other day. Just feels like another prospect that just won't be traded. Dodgers feel like the team that makes the most sense because they have Pepiot, Stone, Miller all on the doorstep or at the MLB. Tiedemann, Painter, Rodriguez all just seem like the clear best guy in the system and I don't think any of those teams trade them.

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Tiedemann was throwing 99 the other day. Just feels like another prospect that just won't be traded. Dodgers feel like the team that makes the most sense because they have Pepiot, Stone, Miller all on the doorstep or at the MLB. Tiedemann, Painter, Rodriguez all just seem like the clear best guy in the system and I don't think any of those teams trade them.

Maybe, though Tiedemann still remains a level or two below Painter and Rodriguez. Jays also don’t have anyone else to headline a Burnes trade. 
 

But I agree that the most likely scenario at this point is Burnes to LAD in the off-season for some combination of Miller, Stone, Pepiot, NastrinI, and Sheehan.