Article: Brewers Spring Training Battles: Javy Guerra vs. Joel Payamps vs. Gus Varland

[Matthew Trueblood]

To close out our weeklong series highlighting the battles for roster spots and key roles on the Milwaukee Brewers during spring training, let’s turn our attention to the bullpen. There are probably two open spots available there, and three pitchers who will vie for the gigs.

Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

We should start by listing the locks for the Brewers’ relief corps to open the season. Devin Williams, Matt Bush, Peter Strzelecki, and Hoby Milner have earned virtually guaranteed spots on the roster, thanks to their track records and recent performances. Milner’s left-handedness does half the work for him, in that regard. 

Less obvious (but nearly as certain) is Bryse Wilson, whom the team acquired via trade this winter and who will be the subject of one of our pieces next week on the club’s biggest X-factors for 2023. He has no minor-league options remaining, and the team targeted him because they think he can be effective. That makes five, and the sixth slot will be reserved for Adrian Houser, assuming that Wade Miley is healthy and solid enough to claim the fifth starting job come Opening Day.

That leaves two spaces in the eight-man bullpen, and there are at least three serious candidates for the job: Javy Guerra, Joel Payamps, and Gus Varland. Let’s touch on each, and why they’re in the mix.

Guerra, like Wilson, came to the Crew via trade this offseason, though the move was a bit less proactive. The Rays needed to clear space on their 40-man roster, and Guerra became a casualty of that crunch. The converted shortstop, now 27, just moved to the mound in 2019, and he has more capacity for improvement and reinvention than most pitchers his age.

That said, the Brewers snagged him because they already see upside in what he does. In the minors with the Padres in 2021, he found more riding action on his four-seam fastball, and the Rays helped him lock in that adjustment in 2022. With his short stature and low arm slot, he creates the same formidable vertical approach angle (VAA) that Strzelecki, Freddy Peralta, and other Brewers do, and the team will try to help him attack the top of the zone with the four-seamer. 

If he can do so, he’ll be a versatile weapon in relief, because his high-90s sinker and sharp slider make him tough on right-handed batters already. Being able to swap out the sinker for the four-seamer against lefties would open things up for him. The stakes are high for him in camp, though, because he’s out of minor-league options. If he isn’t on the active roster or the injured list, he’s unlikely to stay in the Brewers organization.

The same is true of Payamps, who was a throw-in in the trade that netted Milwaukee William Contreras. A much more traditional reliever in terms of size, stuff, and career arc, Payamps still has some unique traits, too. He is, nominally, a four-pitch reliever, which is rare in the modern game. In truth, though, he mostly mixes four-seamers and changeups against lefties, with a smattering of sliders; and sinkers and sliders against righties, with a smattering of four-seamers. 

Payamps and Guerra both have messy deliveries, but Payamps has already cleaned his up quite a bit, relative to a few years ago, so it’s unlikely his mechanics will suddenly take a turn for the gorgeous. He did firm up and reshape his slider a bit toward the end of 2022, though. It’s more of a sweeper, if the new form he found in Oakland can be sustained, and that would make it a better partner to his sinker against righties.

While both Payamps and Guerra are out of options, Varland technically has all of his remaining. Alas, that’s only because he had yet to be added to the Dodgers’ 40-man rotation, which is why the Brewers were able to pluck him in the Rule 5 Draft. The effect is the same as if he were out of options, from the team’s side: If he doesn’t make the roster, he departs the org. 

Varland was a starter until the early part of 2022, when he stalled out in that role in Double A and was moved to the bullpen. He proved the quality of his stuff down the stretch, with 46 strikeouts and just eight walks in a little over 30 innings after July 1. He still allowed too many hits and runs, though, which made not protecting him a fairly easy call for Los Angeles.

Still, there’s upside here. Of the three candidates for the jobs, it’s Varland who will probably throw hardest this season. It’s also Varland who has the cleanest and most Breweresque mechanics, although the tempo of his delivery can get him into some trouble and compromise his deception.

fun morning at starters with pro guys from minnesota

two former teammates in the dodgers org squared off for live abs:

gus varland vs michael busch

varland sat 93-94 & flashed a biting slider and changeup

busch —hit 32 hrs (aa+aaa) in ‘22– in his 1st live abs of the yr pic.twitter.com/rmlbZ62qFV

— parker hageman (@HagemanParker) January 20, 2023

Beyond these three lie still more possibilities, including some delightfully weird ones. Could Alex Claudio really force his way back onto the Brewers, in 2023? Could Lucas Erceg, rather than Guerra, be the converted position player who carves out a role? Could Ethan Small show such upside in shorter bursts that the team eschews the chance to keep him stretched out as depth for the rotation?

As fun as those are, though, they’re unlikely options. It’s much more realistic, and probably better, to hope for two of Guerra, Payamps, and Varland to step up and become reliable middle relievers. Each has so many intriguing questions surrounding them, though, that the spring really will determine who stays and who goes. Let the debate over which should be which begin. 

 

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[Brock Beauchamp]

Slipping a tweet from Parker into the piece, nice.

[MVP2110]

Why are you thinking they'll only have 7 relievers? You have 5 locks and say there are two open spots. But most teams carry 8 now? Unless you also meant Houser as a lock and just aren't counting him?

[Matthew Trueblood]

27 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

Why are you thinking they'll only have 7 relievers? You have 5 locks and say there are two open spots. But most teams carry 8 now? Unless you also meant Houser as a lock and just aren't counting him?

It’s that. Assuming full health from here (always dicey!), I think Houser or Miley is sure to be in the pen. Probably Houser.

[DR28]

Cousins is right there in the battle as well.

[Matthew Trueblood]

19 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Cousins is right there in the battle as well.

He could be, but he’d have to pitch his way into it. Unlike the guys discussed, he has two options left, so they can keep him in AAA without losing anyone. I think he’d have to really show something that tells us his control problems are under control before they’d roster him over a healthy guy they’d have to waive.

[DR28]

44 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

He could be, but he’d have to pitch his way into it. Unlike the guys discussed, he has two options left, so they can keep him in AAA without losing anyone. I think he’d have to really show something that tells us his control problems are under control before they’d roster him over a healthy guy they’d have to waive.

Not sure how Cousins isnt a lock... Dude is a damn good pitcher.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W	Awards
2021	26	MIL	NL	1	0	1.000	2.70	30	0	3	0	0	0	30.0	16	9	9	3	19	1	44	4	0	2	125	155	3.84	1.167	4.8	0.9	5.7	13.2	2.32
2022	27	MIL	NL	2	1	.667	2.70	12	0	6	0	0	0	13.1	10	4	4	1	8	1	21	2	0	4	59	150	3.19	1.350	6.8	0.7	5.4	14.2	2.63

I consider Cousins a lock along with Williams, Bush and Strze.

I see Guerra, B Wilson, Milner, Small, Payamps and Varland battling it out for last spots.

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

He could be, but he’d have to pitch his way into it. Unlike the guys discussed, he has two options left, so they can keep him in AAA without losing anyone. I think he’d have to really show something that tells us his control problems are under control before they’d roster him over a healthy guy they’d have to waive.

Cousins is hurt by the fact that he has options remaining, but when healthy, he's probably been our 3rd/4th best reliever over the past two seasons. He also has high-leverage experience. 

Varland has a lot more to prove, as we would have to play the rule 5 game with him the entire season. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, DR28 said:

Not sure how Cousins isnt a lock... Dude is a damn good pitcher.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W	Awards
2021	26	MIL	NL	1	0	1.000	2.70	30	0	3	0	0	0	30.0	16	9	9	3	19	1	44	4	0	2	125	155	3.84	1.167	4.8	0.9	5.7	13.2	2.32
2022	27	MIL	NL	2	1	.667	2.70	12	0	6	0	0	0	13.1	10	4	4	1	8	1	21	2	0	4	59	150	3.19	1.350	6.8	0.7	5.4	14.2	2.63

I consider Cousins a lock along with Williams, Bush and Strze.

I see Guerra, B Wilson, Milner, Small, Payamps and Varland battling it out for last spots.

He faced 156 batters last year, walked 19, plunked five. Plus the options thing means he has to actively *beat* the others. Again, I’m not saying he’s not talented or intriguing. But I don’t think he’s anywhere near a lock, unless he relentlessly throws strikes this spring.

[MVP2110]

8 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

He faced 156 batters last year, walked 19, plunked five. Plus the options thing means he has to actively *beat* the others. Again, I’m not saying he’s not talented or intriguing. But I don’t think he’s anywhere near a lock, unless he relentlessly throws strikes this spring.

Then why do you consider Strezlecki a lock? He has options 

[Brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

He faced 156 batters last year, walked 19, plunked five. Plus the options thing means he has to actively *beat* the others. Again, I’m not saying he’s not talented or intriguing. But I don’t think he’s anywhere near a lock, unless he relentlessly throws strikes this spring.

Devin walked almost as much, but, like Cousins, is able to overcome it due to his strikeout ability. Cousins’ peripherals were strong too, with a 3.19 FIP and 3.24 xERA.

I don’t understand having Strzelecki as a lock or not even having Cousins as part of the competition with Payamps, Guerra, or Varland.

[DR28]

46 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

He faced 156 batters last year, walked 19, plunked five. Plus the options thing means he has to actively *beat* the others. Again, I’m not saying he’s not talented or intriguing. But I don’t think he’s anywhere near a lock, unless he relentlessly throws strikes this spring.

And Devin has 3 options...

Options shouldnt matter, it's building the best 8 man bullpen... Cousins is one of the best options we have.

[DR28]

16 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Devin walked almost as much, but, like Cousins, is able to overcome it due to his strikeout ability. Cousins’ peripherals were strong too, with a 3.19 FIP and 3.24 xERA.

I don’t understand having Strzelecki as a lock or not even having Cousins as part of the competition with Payamps, Guerra, or Varland.

Cousins has big K ability as well... 13+ and 14+ K/9 last 2 seasons.

[CheeseheadInQC]

The Brewers’ conundrum is, do you sacrifice having your best possible bullpen in April/May to increase the chances of having a better one in August/September?

[DR28]

10 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

The Brewers’ conundrum is, do you sacrifice having your best possible bullpen in April/May to increase the chances of having a better one in August/September?

Yes, every game counts... Last season is prime example of that... Win a couple games that we shouldnt have lost, we're 7 seed.

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Yes, every game counts... Last season is prime example of that... Win a couple games that we shouldnt have lost, we're 7 seed.

It's so sad that I can think of at least 5 games we had no business losing last year off the top of my head. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, DR28 said:

And Devin has 3 options...

Options shouldnt matter, it's building the best 8 man bullpen... Cousins is one of the best options we have.

I hear you, but whether they should or shouldn’t matter, they *do*. Under the current rules, if you don’t figure options into roster decisions when you’re at relatively full health, you end up jettisoning viable pitchers, and then when someone gets hurt or overworked, you end up with a really ugly set of replacement choices.

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Devin walked almost as much, but, like Cousins, is able to overcome it due to his strikeout ability. Cousins’ peripherals were strong too, with a 3.19 FIP and 3.24 xERA.

I don’t understand having Strzelecki as a lock or not even having Cousins as part of the competition with Payamps, Guerra, or Varland.

That’s… fair, I guess, but I’m surprised that you (and several others here) seem to regard Cousins and Strzelecki as belonging to the same category. Because that’s what this comes down to. A big-league team sifts their relievers into two subsets:

1. High-leverage guys who are mostly beyond considerations like options and service time; and 

2. Fungible guys. Most relievers belong to this set, especially for the Brewers.

I can’t really see a case for counting Cousins as a Category 1 guy, alongside Williams and Bush. So I suppose the argument folks are making is that Strzelecki really belongs in Category 2, right along with Cousins and the trio on which this piece centered. I can see that case, but I don’t agree with it. Strzelecki has shown command (good) and durability (vital) that far exceeds that of the rest here. He’s pitched roughly twice as much as Cousins since the pandemic.

I do take the point that Cousins has greater upside than Payamps, Guerra, and Varland. But I think we’re in danger of overlooking his considerable downside. They can stash him, give him more time to reclaim his control, and lose nothing, or they can take the health and performance risks he poses and lose one of these three in the process, right at the start of a long season. I reiterate that it’s possible he earns that before camp breaks! But it seems very unlikely.

 

[Brewcrew82]

31 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I hear you, but whether they should or shouldn’t matter, they *do*. Under the current rules, if you don’t figure options into roster decisions when you’re at relatively full health, you end up jettisoning viable pitchers, and then when someone gets hurt or overworked, you end up with a really ugly set of replacement choices.

There's also a fine line to walk here. A case could certainly be made that stashing Cousins in AAA just so you can keep a guy like Bryse Wilson and his career 5.54 ERA (232 innings) crosses that line. Games in April are every bit as important as games in August or September. Last year was a good teacher in that sense. 

[Brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

That’s… fair, I guess, but I’m surprised that you (and several others here) seem to regard Cousins and Strzelecki as belonging to the same category. Because that’s what this comes down to. A big-league team sifts their relievers into two subsets:

1. High-leverage guys who are mostly beyond considerations like options and service time; and 

2. Fungible guys. Most relievers belong to this set, especially for the Brewers.

I can’t really see a case for counting Cousins as a Category 1 guy, alongside Williams and Bush. So I suppose the argument folks are making is that Strzelecki really belongs in Category 2, right along with Cousins and the trio on which this piece centered. I can see that case, but I don’t agree with it. Strzelecki has shown command (good) and durability (vital) that far exceeds that of the rest here. He’s pitched roughly twice as much as Cousins since the pandemic.

I do take the point that Cousins has greater upside than Payamps, Guerra, and Varland. But I think we’re in danger of overlooking his considerable downside. They can stash him, give him more time to reclaim his control, and lose nothing, or they can take the health and performance risks he poses and lose one of these three in the process, right at the start of a long season. I reiterate that it’s possible he earns that before camp breaks! But it seems very unlikely.

 

I think Cousins and Strzelecki are definitely same tier, meaning guys who are right after Devin and Bush in the bullpen pecking order due to their combination of results and strikeout ability. Strzelecki has better control, as you say, but Cousins also has superior strikeout ability. Their peripherals are  very similar as well. 

Again, we're talking about a guy who has already proven himself at the major league level (in some high leverage spots no less) and who has been probably our 4th best reliever since 2021 (after Hader, Devin, and Boxberger). I see tremendous downside in trying to be cute and stash him in AAA just so you can keep a guy like Bryse Wilson and his 5.54 ERA. 

I do think there's a possibility that the Brewers will adopt your perspective, but that would be a real mistake imo. 

[Outlander]

Cousins and Strzelecki have about the same amount of success in the majors, same age and project to have pretty similar numbers.  I still expect one to be in the minors to star the year.

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

That’s… fair, I guess, but I’m surprised that you (and several others here) seem to regard Cousins and Strzelecki as belonging to the same category. Because that’s what this comes down to. A big-league team sifts their relievers into two subsets:

1. High-leverage guys who are mostly beyond considerations like options and service time; and 

2. Fungible guys. Most relievers belong to this set, especially for the Brewers.

I can’t really see a case for counting Cousins as a Category 1 guy, alongside Williams and Bush. So I suppose the argument folks are making is that Strzelecki really belongs in Category 2, right along with Cousins and the trio on which this piece centered. I can see that case, but I don’t agree with it. Strzelecki has shown command (good) and durability (vital) that far exceeds that of the rest here. He’s pitched roughly twice as much as Cousins since the pandemic.

I do take the point that Cousins has greater upside than Payamps, Guerra, and Varland. But I think we’re in danger of overlooking his considerable downside. They can stash him, give him more time to reclaim his control, and lose nothing, or they can take the health and performance risks he poses and lose one of these three in the process, right at the start of a long season. I reiterate that it’s possible he earns that before camp breaks! But it seems very unlikely.

 

In that system I have them both as sort of a 1.5, too valuable for category 2 but not proven enough to be category 1. I can understand the argument for having Strzelecki ahead of Cousins, but even a slight improvement in control on Cousins’ part probably flips them.

[wiguy94]

24 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

In that system I have them both as sort of a 1.5, too valuable for category 2 but not proven enough to be category 1. I can understand the argument for having Strzelecki ahead of Cousins, but even a slight improvement in control on Cousins’ part probably flips them.

Strzelecki profiles as a better leverage RP because his pitch makeup is better against LHP and he has a capable 3rd pitch while Cousins doesn't. 

Cousins' 2022 OPS splits are quite evident. 

MLB: .589 vs RHB, .861 vs LHB

AAA: .493 vs RHB, .799 vs LHB

127 total PA vs RHB with 11 BB and 4 HBP compared to 88 PA vs LHB with 16 BB and 3 HBP. Walks are out of control against LHB.

Strzelecki's 2022 OPS splits look much better. 

MLB: .607 vs RHB, .676 vs LHB

AAA: .577 vs RHB, .674 vs LHB

254 total PA vs RHB with 21 BB and 3 HBP compared to 162 PA vs LHB with 19 BB and 1 HBP. 

Cousins had 19 BB+HBP in 88 PA vs LHB. Strzelecki had 20 BB+HBP in 162 PA vs LHB. Seems pretty clear to me why the Brewers view Strzelecki as a high leverage guy and Cousins as a guy with question marks still.

 

[wiguy94]

10 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Strzelecki profiles as a better leverage RP because his pitch makeup is better against LHP and he has a capable 3rd pitch while Cousins doesn't. 

Cousins' 2022 OPS splits are quite evident. 

MLB: .589 vs RHB, .861 vs LHB

AAA: .493 vs RHB, .799 vs LHB

127 total PA vs RHB with 11 BB and 4 HBP compared to 88 PA vs LHB with 16 BB and 3 HBP. Walks are out of control against LHB.

Strzelecki's 2022 OPS splits look much better. 

MLB: .607 vs RHB, .676 vs LHB

AAA: .577 vs RHB, .674 vs LHB

254 total PA vs RHB with 21 BB and 3 HBP compared to 162 PA vs LHB with 19 BB and 1 HBP. 

Cousins had 19 BB+HBP in 88 PA vs LHB. Strzelecki had 20 BB+HBP in 162 PA vs LHB. Seems pretty clear to me why the Brewers view Strzelecki as a high leverage guy and Cousins as a guy with question marks still.

 

I should add these splits for Cousins looked much better in 2021, but he had the elbow injury in 2022 which might have impacted his control/release point leading to the poor platoon splits.

[wiguy94]

9 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I should add these splits for Cousins looked much better in 2021, but he had the elbow injury in 2022 which might have impacted his control/release point leading to the poor platoon splits.

Although the bad news is the walks/HBP were still huge issues in 2021 against LHP and they had a .386 OBP vs Cousins.