Article: The State of the Brewers: Outfield – More Choices Galore

[clancyphile]

As spring training approaches, Brewers fans are looking forward to 2023. What will the Milwaukee outfield look like this season?

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to the outfield, the biggest problem is what to do with a surplus of quality players, not just on the 40-man roster, but who will likely be in the minors and those coming up soon.

Just how crowded is the Brewers' outfield? Let’s look it over.

The 40-Man Roster
Christian Yelich, even coming off two subpar seasons and a third that would have translated to over 30 homers (even with a low batting average), is the only fixture in the Brewers outfield. He’ll man left field. The other two positions get a little more complicated.

Garrett Mitchell and Tyrone Taylor will be seeing time in center field. But how much will each of them play? Both players have power and speed and are assets defensively. Mitchell is a promising first-round pick from the truncated 2020 amateur draft, while Taylor had a long odyssey as a second-round pick from the 2012 amateur draft, the same one that saw the Crew score big with Brent Suter in the 31st round.

Taylor could also be in right field a lot, with Brian Anderson (who also could spend time at third) in the mix. Taylor’s power bat makes him a poor man’s Hunter Renfroe, albeit with a touch more speed and the ability to play center field.

Blake Perkins is on the 40-man – a bit of a surprise on one level – but looks to be a call-up from AAA Nashville relatively early on in the season. Jesse Winker will likely be spending a lot of time as the designated hitter.

Keston Hiura also saw some time in the outfield, but Brewers fans may have cause to worry if he's there. 

Non-Roster Invitees
Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer will likely be in Milwaukee sooner than you think. Frelick is a pure hitter, while Wiemer flashed monster power and speed. The former is a 2021 first-round pick, and the latter was selected in the 2020 draft. Tyler Naquin, a left-handed hitting corner outfielder who's hit as many as 19 homers in seven seasons with Cleveland, Cincinnati and the Mets, could also see time if Wiemer and Frelick slump in conjunction with injuries at the major-league level.

Monte Harrison was a highly-touted prospect who helped bring Yelich to Milwaukee in that 2017-2018 offseason trade. He’s back, having become a version of Keon Broxton (power, speed, defense). Skye Bolt and Eddy Alvarez round out the outfield NRIs and will likely be options to fill in at Nashville as Frelick and Wiemer force their way onto the 40-man.

X-Factors/Potential Breakouts
The situation gets even more crowded – with two names standing out: Jackson Chourio and Jace Avina. Both are center fielders who flashed a lot of power and superstar potential. Some other familiar names with flashes of potential are there, too, like Hedbert Perez, Hendry Mendez, Joe Gray Jr., and Tristen Lutz.

Overview
In a sense, the outfield is like the infield for the Brewers – there are questions, but these are the questions where the answers are fun to debate. Do the Brewers push forward with very exciting young talent? What do they do when keeping the likes of Frelick and Wiemer at AAA can’t be justified? What of Chourio and Avina?

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[Fear The Chorizo]

I think the glut of options for this OF indicates a couple of the high minors prospect options (Frelick, Wiemer) are likely to start the year in AAA - and I also think it's likely we'll see a trade or two that includes either some of the veteran OFs like Taylor or seasoned but not as highly regarded prospects (Lutz, Gray JR, Perez, etc) to both thin the herd and add bullpen pieces if the team is in buy mode at the deadline.  I think with Chourio coming behind Mitchell, Wiemer, and Frelick, it also wouldn't surprise me if one of those three is traded for a roster upgrade elsewhere over the next calendar year - Chourio is the type of prospect you absolutely make room for as soon as he proves to be ready for the show.

As an aside, I wondered how long I'd have to read before seeing Suter's name mentioned in an article that's supposed to be entirely about this year's Brewer outfield options...10 sentences in was actually a pretty good job by clancy holding off!  However, I'm a bit disappointed there was no mention of Cooper Hummel.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

As an aside, I wondered how long I'd have to read before seeing Suter's name mentioned in an article that's supposed to be entirely about this year's Brewer outfield options...10 sentences in was actually a pretty good job by clancy holding off!

Honestly, I think it's a great bit. Working Suter into literally every piece is delightful.

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

28 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I think the glut of options for this OF indicates a couple of the high minors prospect options (Frelick, Wiemer) are likely to start the year in AAA - and I also think it's likely we'll see a trade or two that includes either some of the veteran OFs like Taylor or seasoned but not as highly regarded prospects (Lutz, Gray JR, Perez, etc) to both thin the herd and add bullpen pieces if the team is in buy mode at the deadline.  I think with Chourio coming behind Mitchell, Wiemer, and Frelick, it also wouldn't surprise me if one of those three is traded for a roster upgrade elsewhere over the next calendar year - Chourio is the type of prospect you absolutely make room for as soon as he proves to be ready for the show.

As an aside, I wondered how long I'd have to read before seeing Suter's name mentioned in an article that's supposed to be entirely about this year's Brewer outfield options...10 sentences in was actually a pretty good job by clancy holding off!  However, I'm a bit disappointed there was no mention of Cooper Hummel.

I would be careful in anointing a prospect as can't miss based on one year of experience.  Even high school and college players have more experience with the mental rigors of baseball.  Yes, his skills are good but what happens when he is challenged, how does he react to this sport becoming a job rather than a sport.  Baseball like every sport has a mental aspect to it and Chourio has no experience with it.  There is a history of baseball getting over excited with many poorly researched hence unknown players, most fail to live up to the hype.  I wouldn't assume anything with Jackson.  He is a lottery ticket.

 

I don't understand how a person with one year of experience is a team's best prospect.  His numbers are pedestrian at best.  The only reason to hype him is that he was young for his league when he put up those numbers.  The fact his numbers decreased at every promotion is very suggestive.  Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemers, numbers have improved with increased competition that is what you are looking for in a good prospect.

[Brewcrew82]

41 minutes ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

I would be careful in anointing a prospect as can't miss based on one year of experience.  Even high school and college players have more experience with the mental rigors of baseball.  Yes, his skills are good but what happens when he is challenged, how does he react to this sport becoming a job rather than a sport.  Baseball like every sport has a mental aspect to it and Chourio has no experience with it.  There is a history of baseball getting over excited with many poorly researched hence unknown players, most fail to live up to the hype.  I wouldn't assume anything with Jackson.  He is a lottery ticket.

I don’t think it’s accurate to call a consensus top 10 prospect in baseball a “lottery ticket”. Chourio could flame out or fail to live up to expectations, for sure, but the fact that he’s ranked as high as he is means scouts and analysts are fairly certain that he will be a productive major league player. How productive is where it becomes debatable, but by nature, the vast majority of lottery tickets don’t end up making the majors, let alone become productive players. Freddy Peralta is the rare exception. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

37 minutes ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

I don't understand how a person with one year of experience is a team's best prospect.  His numbers are pedestrian at best.  The only reason to hype him is that he was young for his league when he put up those numbers.  The fact his numbers decreased at every promotion is very suggestive.  Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemers, numbers have improved with increased competition that is what you are looking for in a good prospect.

I think you're really undervaluing how rare what Chourio did at his age is in the context of baseball. He's posting A-Rod/Trout kind of performance in the minors as a teenager. His performance was anything but pedestrian, he has an OPS well over .800 in both of his MiLB seasons.

Is there still a chance Chourio fails? Absolutely, that's the case with any prospect. But there's a reason why literally every prospect evaluator is kinda losing their minds over him right now, what he's doing is amazing.

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

5 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think you're really undervaluing how rare what Chourio did at his age is in the context of baseball. He's posting A-Rod/Trout kind of performance in the minors as a teenager. His performance was anything but pedestrian, he has an OPS well over .800 in both of his MiLB seasons.

Is there still a chance Chourio fails? Absolutely, that's the case with any prospect. But there's a reason why literally every prospect evaluator is kinda losing their minds over him right now, what he's doing is amazing.

If the Brewers were to trade Garret Mitchell or Jackson Chourio who which one would have the higher trade value?  Jackson's rating are based on public opinion as of now.  He will get his chance to cement his prospect rating these next couple of years.  I doubt he is in the Mike Trout category.  Might want to withhold judgement until he proves himself.  

[Brewcrew82]

22 minutes ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

If the Brewers were to trade Garret Mitchell or Jackson Chourio who which one would have the higher trade value?  Jackson's rating are based on public opinion as of now.  He will get his chance to cement his prospect rating these next couple of years.  I doubt he is in the Mike Trout category.  Might want to withhold judgement until he proves himself.  

Chourio has by far more trade value than Mitchell...

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/461/

[wiguy94]

21 minutes ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

If the Brewers were to trade Garret Mitchell or Jackson Chourio who which one would have the higher trade value?  Jackson's rating are based on public opinion as of now.  He will get his chance to cement his prospect rating these next couple of years.  I doubt he is in the Mike Trout category.  Might want to withhold judgement until he proves himself.  

Chourio would have significantly more value...it's not even comparable. Like come on. 

[CheeseheadInQC]

41 minutes ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

If the Brewers were to trade Garret Mitchell or Jackson Chourio who which one would have the higher trade value?  Jackson's rating are based on public opinion as of now.  He will get his chance to cement his prospect rating these next couple of years.  I doubt he is in the Mike Trout category.  Might want to withhold judgement until he proves himself.  

Chances are he isn’t Trout, because Trout has been the best player of the last two decades. His value is based on more than just hype, though. Over the past 15+ years, the only prospects to be clearly better in high-A during their 18-year-old season were Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Wander Franco. Trout and Keibert Ruiz were about even. He is the only one to post a .200 ISO at that level at his age during that same time frame.

His stats are legit.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

If the Brewers were to trade Garret Mitchell or Jackson Chourio who which one would have the higher trade value?  Jackson's rating are based on public opinion as of now.  He will get his chance to cement his prospect rating these next couple of years.  I doubt he is in the Mike Trout category.  Might want to withhold judgement until he proves himself.  

Jackson Chourio has *way more* value in trade than Mitchell.

I also doubt Chourio is the next Trout. I’m just saying what he’s doing is comparable to some elite players as a teen. Where he goes from here is unknown to everyone. 

[clancyphile]

37 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Jackson Chourio has *way more* value in trade than Mitchell.

I also doubt Chourio is the next Trout. I’m just saying what he’s doing is comparable to some elite players as a teen. Where he goes from here is unknown to everyone. 

No need to rush Chourio, particularly with the depth the Brewers have in the outfield. Take the time, let him refine his game. They can still do full seasons at Biloxi and Nashville before the Rule V draft even comes into play.

As we have seen with the starting rotation, a lot of these depth issues can resolve themselves without panicking or doing something... iffy for the long-term success of the franchise.

[Brock Beauchamp]

13 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

No need to rush Chourio, particularly with the depth the Brewers have in the outfield. Take the time, let him refine his game. They can still do full seasons at Biloxi and Nashville before the Rule V draft even comes into play.

As we have seen with the starting rotation, a lot of these depth issues can resolve themselves without panicking or doing something... iffy for the long-term success of the franchise.

Yeah, I'd be surprised if we see Chourio in Milwaukee this season no matter how well he hits.

[clancyphile]

25 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, I'd be surprised if we see Chourio in Milwaukee this season no matter how well he hits.

I'd be shocked if he even reaches Nashville. Let him do a full season in Biloxi, get used to a routine. He probably ought to have a NRI in 2024, just to get the big-league atmosphere, but really, there is no reason for him to be anywhere but Biloxi, with an AFL stint afterwards.

Smae goes for Avina. No need to rush, just move him up one level a year.

[Fear The Chorizo]

48 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

No need to rush Chourio, particularly with the depth the Brewers have in the outfield. Take the time, let him refine his game. They can still do full seasons at Biloxi and Nashville before the Rule V draft even comes into play.

As we have seen with the starting rotation, a lot of these depth issues can resolve themselves without panicking or doing something... iffy for the long-term success of the franchise.

If Chourio is the player most scouts and we all hope think he can be, he's not spending two more full seasons in the minor leagues no matter how much OF depth is in front of him in Milwaukee and higher levels of the minor leagues - Chourio is the type of prospect you make room for by willingly trading away major league players with multiple years of team control remaining that might be blocking him. 

If he has a really good 2023 season, he'll be in Milwaukee in 2024, if not sooner.

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

If the Brewers were to trade Garret Mitchell or Jackson Chourio who which one would have the higher trade value?  Jackson's rating are based on public opinion as of now.  He will get his chance to cement his prospect rating these next couple of years.  I doubt he is in the Mike Trout category.  Might want to withhold judgement until he proves himself.  

He won't be cementing his prospect rating the next couple years, he'll be in the major leagues by then, barring injury.  And I'd make the argument that there aren't more than a couple other prospects/rookies across all of MLB right now that would carry more trade value than Chourio - Garret Mitchell is a quality prospect, but he's nowhere close to as valuable as Chourio is, who happens to be 5+ years younger than Mitchell.

[Brock Beauchamp]

50 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

I'd be shocked if he even reaches Nashville. Let him do a full season in Biloxi, get used to a routine.

Shocked is a strong word. I’d be mildly surprised if Chourio *doesn’t* play in Nashville this season, injury issues excepted.

If the guy is raking, promote him to face the more polished and crafty pitchers of the AAA circuit. 

[Outlander]

8 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Chourio has by far more trade value than Mitchell...

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/461/

After this past off season with the Brewers nobody can definitively say who has more value. Ruiz got Contreras and if that trade never happened I would imagine nobody here would say Ruiz has the same trade value as Contreras or even Mitchell. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 hours ago, Outlander said:

After this past off season with the Brewers nobody can definitively say who has more value. Ruiz got Contreras and if that trade never happened I would imagine nobody here would say Ruiz has the same trade value as Contreras or even Mitchell. 

While this is certainly the case a lot of the time, in Chourio and Mitchell we're discussing two players in different stratospheres. It's akin to suggesting Eric Lauer might have more trade value than Corbin Burnes. It's not a knock on Lauer, he's a very nice player, but he isn't Corbin Burnes.

[Fear The Chorizo]

7 hours ago, Outlander said:

After this past off season with the Brewers nobody can definitively say who has more value. Ruiz got Contreras and if that trade never happened I would imagine nobody here would say Ruiz has the same trade value as Contreras or even Mitchell. 

If you were comparing Ruiz, Mitchell, Frelick, and Wiemer - sure.

Trading Chourio right now would probably land Contreras plus at least two of the prospects listed above, and I'd still be upset they traded Chourio.  When a young prospect flashes the type of ceiling Chourio has, he quickly becomes untradeable at the age he is.

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

5 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

if you were comparing Ruiz, Mitchell, Frelick, and Wiemer - sure.

Trading Chourio right now would probably land Contreras plus at least two of the prospects listed above, and I'd still be upset they traded Chourio.  When a young prospect flashes the type of ceiling Chourio has, he quickly becomes untradeable at the age he is.

In two years in the lower lower minors Jackson Chourio has hit .290 with an OPS of 0.867.  In 144 games he has 559 at bats with 162 hits of which 68 were extra base hits. In Double AA Jackson has .087 AVG with an OPS of 0.284 and you think this is worth more prospect capital than Frelick, Wiemers, or Mitchell?  Huh

[sveumrules]

16 minutes ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

In two years in the lower lower minors Jackson Chourio has hit .290 with an OPS of 0.867.  In 144 games he has 559 at bats with 162 hits of which 68 were extra base hits. In Double AA Jackson has .087 AVG with an OPS of 0.284 and you think this is worth more prospect capital than Frelick, Wiemers, or Mitchell?  Huh

You may be putting too much emphasis on 26 plate appearances taken by an 18 year old in AA.

"18 year old in AA" tells one pretty much all they need to know.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

In two years in the lower lower minors Jackson Chourio has hit .290 with an OPS of 0.867.  In 144 games he has 559 at bats with 162 hits of which 68 were extra base hits. In Double AA Jackson has .087 AVG with an OPS of 0.284 and you think this is worth more prospect capital than Frelick, Wiemers, or Mitchell?  Huh

And how many 18 year olds played in AA last season. How many have played there in the last decade?

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

And how many 18 year olds played in AA last season. How many have played there in the last decade?

To put this into context, Chourio was the same age last season as all the prep draftees drafted two months earlier.

Except he was attempting to hit against AA pitchers.

[CheeseheadInQC]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

And how many 18 year olds played in AA last season. How many have played there in the last decade?

Since 2010, 5 players have had at least 10 plate appearances in AA during their age 18 season. One was an injury replacement catcher who wasn’t hitting in A ball when he jumped two levels. The others were Harper, Tatis and Eguy Rosario.